Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Sunday 7/5/20 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Happy Independence Day and July 4th to all SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators. We hope you’re all enjoying the holiday..
..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possibly to likely Sunday afternoon and evening particularly over Northeastern and Central Massachusetts and into North-Central Rhode Island but the potential could extend southwest back into Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut depending if the more favorable conditions can extend back further west. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats but an isolated tornado is a secondary threat..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Eastern and Central Massachusetts and Northeast Rhode Island in a marginal risk for severe weather Sunday and indicated a potential expansion of the risk further west into other parts of Southern New England and as far west as Eastern New York in future outlooks. Severe weather potential timeframe is between about 1-10 PM Sunday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Sunday Afternoon and Evening..

..It has been an active week for severe thunderstorms and localized flooding across parts of Southern New England. A Post Severe Weather Coordination Message will be posted on the various events from the week of 6/28 this Saturday Evening. We are also looking for any post storm damage reports and photos to add to existing and new photo albums on the Facebook page. They can be posted on our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feed or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with date and location information and credit will be given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..

We hope everyone is enjoying their July 4th. There is the potential for severe weather on Sunday Afternoon and Evening, particularly in Central and Northeast Massachusetts and into Northeast Rhode Island but could extend back southwest into Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) The level of mid-level dry air in the atmosphere and whether too much of dry air stunts severe thunderstorm development. At this time, this is expected to be overcome particularly from Worcester and Providence and points north and east on most models but some models bring the potential all the way through Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut and into Eastern New York.
2.) The level of forcing or a trigger in the atmosphere to take advantage of the favorable instability and wind shear profiles in the atmosphere or whether the level of instability and wind shear compensates for a marginal trigger or forcing in the atmosphere.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 10 AM Sunday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200704_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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