Tropical Storm Fay Coordination Message #1 – Friday Afternoon 7/10/20-Saturday Morning 7/11/20 Storm Impacts

Hello to all…

..Tropical Storm Fay has formed off the coast of North Carolina and has the potential to bring heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding to portions of Southern New England that will depend on the strength and intensity of Fay, the threat of isolated severe thunderstorms and to a lesser extent, the possibility of strong winds particularly along South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from Watch Hill Rhode Island westward across coastal Connecticut and Long Island New York..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for the entire NWS Boston/Norton Coverage Area for Friday Afternoon into Saturday Morning. A general 1-2″ rainfall is possible but higher amounts could occur in a portion of the flash flood watch area which could lead to flash flooding of urban areas and small streams..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Connecticut, Rhode Island, South-Central and Southeast Massachusetts in a Marginal Risk for severe weather for Friday Afternoon into Friday Night for isolated severe thunderstorm potential which could have strong to damaging winds and possibly an isolated weak tornado..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Fay with the impacts from Fay late Friday Afternoon into Saturday Morning..

The area of disturbed weather off the North Carolina coast has developed into Tropical Storm Fay. Tropical Storm Fay will move swiftly up the coast affecting our region’s weather late Friday Afternoon into Saturday Morning. The headlines depict the latest thinking. Key factors with Tropical Storm Fay include:

1.) Heavy rainfall with the potential of urban/poor drainage flooding to flash flooding and the possibility of an isolated severe thunderstorm or two capable of a wet microburst or an isolated tornado are the main threats for the NWS Boston/Norton coverage area from Fay.
2.) Right now, the track of Fay will be hugging the US east coast. This would keep the strongest winds confined to the Tropical Storm Warning area. There is a chance of a track slightly further east which would allow Fay to affect parts of the South Coast of Rhode Island and Massachusetts with stronger winds as models initialized the storm a bit further south and west then where the center of Fay was detected by recon aircraft. Trends in models will be monitored regarding the track of Fay.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Fay with the impacts from Fay late Friday Afternoon into Saturday Morning. Another coordination message will be posted by 8 AM Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and National Hurricane Center Miami Florida – Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Information:

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200709_1730.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Fay Technical Discussion Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Fay Forecast/Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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