Tropical Storm Fay Coordination Message #2 – Friday PM 7/10/20-Saturday AM 7/11/20 Storm Impacts

Hello to all…

..Tropical Storm Fay has strengthened slightly as it continues to move northward. Track confidence has increased in a track along the New Jersey Coast and into the New York City area and through Eastern New York/extreme Western New England. Fay will bring heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding to western portions of Southern New England, the threat of isolated severe thunderstorms and to a lesser extent, the possibility of strong winds particularly along South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts.
..Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from Watch Hill Rhode Island westward across coastal Connecticut and Long Island New York..
..A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for Northern Connecticut and Hampden, Hampshire and Franklin Counties of Western Massachusetts from 12 PM Friday Afternoon through Saturday Morning. A general 1-2″ rainfall is likely but higher amounts could occur in a portion of the flash flood watch area which could lead to flash flooding of urban areas and small streams..The Flash Flood Watch for the rest of the NWS Boston/Norton coverage area is canceled with rainfall of 0.50-1.5″ with isolated higher amounts possible..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Connecticut, Rhode Island, South-Central and Southeast Massachusetts in a Marginal Risk for severe weather for Friday Afternoon into Friday Night for isolated severe thunderstorm potential which could have strong to damaging winds and possibly an isolated weak tornado. A Slight Risk for severe weather exists for South Coastal Connecticut into extreme southwest coastal Rhode Island as well..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Fay with the impacts from Fay late Friday Afternoon into Saturday Morning..

Tropical Storm Fay is strengthened slightly as heads towards the Northeast US coast. Tropical Storm Fay will move swiftly up the coast affecting our region’s weather late Friday Afternoon into Saturday Morning. The headlines depict the latest thinking. Key factors with Tropical Storm Fay include:

1.) Heavy rainfall with the potential of urban/poor drainage flooding to flash flooding and the possibility of an isolated severe thunderstorm or two capable of a wet microburst or an isolated tornado are the main threats for the NWS Boston/Norton coverage area from Fay. With the current track guidance remaining stable, the heaviest rain is expected to be in Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut so the Flash Flood Watch remains in effect there but is canceled for the rest of the NWS Boston/Norton coverage area.
2.) Right now, the track of Fay will be hugging the US east coast and model runs continue to indicate that track. This will keep the strongest winds confined to the Tropical Storm Warning area. The chance of a track further east is now less likely though will still be monitored. That said, parts of south coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts could see wind gusts between 30-40 MPH with isolated higher gusts as Fay moves swiftly through the area.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Fay with the impacts from Fay late Friday Afternoon into Saturday Morning. This will be the last coordination message on Fay unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs and time allows for an update as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and National Hurricane Center Miami Florida – Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Information:

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Fay Technical Discussion Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Fay Forecast/Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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