Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday 7/11/20 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely today across Western Massachusetts potentially as far east as Worcester County Mass and across Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this area in a marginal risk for severe weather. Threat timeframe is highest between 4-8 PM but a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could form as early as 2 PM..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor severe weather potential for this Saturday Afternoon and Evening in Western Massachusetts and Connecticut..

With the remnants of Fay north and west of us into Canada, satellite imagery shows reasonably good clearing across the area with a trigger and impulse in the atmosphere across Western Pennsylvania into Central New York. The headlines depict the latest thinking. The key factors on the severe weather potential is as follows:

1.) Timing of the trigger in the atmosphere to set off the high level of instability during the afternoon and early evening to cause strong to severe thunderstorm development across Western Massachusetts and Connecticut.
2.) Ability of the trigger and impulse in the atmosphere to overcome marginal shear profiles to allow for strong to severe thunderstorm development for later this afternoon and evening.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor severe weather potential for this Saturday Afternoon and Evening in Western Massachusetts and Connecticut. This will likely be the only coordination message on the Saturday severe weather potential as we shift to monitoring and operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement on Severe Weather Potential, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement on Severe Weather Potential:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2007111345.wwus81.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
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