Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Monday Afternoon and Evening 7/13/20 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible to likely across all of Southern New England except Cape Cod and the Islands for Monday Afternoon and Evening with the highest potential in Northeast Connecticut, North-Central Rhode Island, and Eastern Massachusetts away from the southeast coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island areas with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding as the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a marginal risk for severe weather for Monday Afternoon and Evening across much of the NWS Norton coverage area except for Cape Cod and the Islands. Threat timeframe is between 2-9 PM Monday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening..

A cold front will move into the area at the time of peak heating Monday Afternoon and Evening. There should be sufficient heating and destabilization along with strong wind shear to support isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms along the cold front. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors for the potential severe weather for Monday that will affect is magnitude is as follows:

1.) Showers and associated cloud cover swung through the area this morning with clear skies and clearing conditions across the region. This will allow for sufficient heating and destabilization for later in the afternoon and evening for strong to severe thunderstorm development.
2.) Ability for stronger wind shear and expected high levels of instability to overcome a few unfavorable parameters in the mid levels of the atmosphere.
3.) Within the marginal risk area, the best chance for strong to severe thunderstorms is across Eastern Connecticut, North-Central Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts outside of southeast coastal areas of Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message on Monday’s severe weather potential as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Special Weather Statement on severe weather potential, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement on Severe Weather Potential:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2007131532.wwus81.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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