Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Thursday 7/23/20 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe thunderstorms are likely across a number of locations in Southern New England this Thursday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. Threat timeframe is from 2-10 PM Thursday with a possibility of a storm or two forming an hour or two earlier in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Southern New England except for Cape Cod and the Islands in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather. Cape Cod and the Islands are in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will also monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday Afternoon and Evening as needed..

A round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms affected Western Massachusetts last night from Western Worcester County westward. Wind damage was in isolated to scattered pockets. There were numerous reports and photos of a wall/funnel cloud with one of the severe thunderstorms but no tornadic damage was found. The Local Storm Report for last night’s severe weather can be seen via the following link:

https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2007230211.nwus51.html

If any spotters or Amateur Radio Operators know of any additional damage reports or have photos etc. from yesterday’s severe weather, send the information along as a reply to this message, via our Facebook or Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org

Turning our attention to today’s severe weather potential. A cold front will bring less humid conditions to the region for the next few days. Out ahead of the cold front, we should have sufficient heating, destabilization and wind shear for the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms particularly across interior Southern New England. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors on the severe weather potential for Thursday are as follows:

1.) Radar and satellite imagery shows a few light showers and light clouds into parts of Western Connecticut, this could slow down heating and reduce destabilization in that area. Much of the rest of the region, however, is destabilizing with full sunshine which should produce high instability.
2.) Wind shear is a bit marginal but should be sufficient given the cold front acting as a strong triggering mechanism along with the expected high instability. Models indicate good updraft potential that should allow for hail and strong to damaging winds to develop.
3.) The severe weather potential would increase if organized short lines or squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms develops in the region. The best chance for severe weather is across interior Southern New England and particularly from Hartford to Willimantic to the Boston area north and west.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will also monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday Afternoon and Evening as needed. This will be the last coordination message on Thursday’s severe weather potential as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Special Weather Statement, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2007231237.wwus81.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
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