Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday 7/30/20 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across areas of Southern New England essentially along and south of the Route 2 area for Thursday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with urban to poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the area roughly along and south of the Route 2 area in a marginal risk for severe weather for Thursday Afternoon and Evening roughly between 12-6 PM Thursday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday Afternoon and Evening..

A cold front will make its way into Southern New England on Thursday and will be draped over parts of Southern New England Thursday as we get into early to mid afternoon. Key factor on the severe weather potential are as follows:

1.) The amount of cloud cover over the region and the earlier timing of the cold front. Models are divergent in how much instability will be available given the timing of the cold front and cloud cover associated with the cold front and low clouds and fog that may exist in Southeast New England. It is noted wind shear would be sufficient for severe weather development if enough instability is available. The risk area favors areas along and south of Route 2 and from about I-91 east and southeast extending into Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts depending on whether Southeast New England can burn off the fog and the marine based low level clouds.
2.) Amount of moisture in the mid-levels of the atmosphere as if it dries out too quickly, this would not allow updrafts to reach strong to severe levels.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 1130 AM Thursday. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200729_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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