Hurricane Isaias Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday 8/4/20-Wednesday Morning 8/5/20 Potential Impacts

Hello to all…

..Hurricane Isaias is a tropical system approaching and over the Bahama Islands and should be closely monitored for impacts in Southern New England in the Tuesday through Wednesday Morning timeframe. The type of impacts will depend on Isaias’ track toward the region as well as the speed of forward motion and the intensity of Isaias. SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators should monitor the progress of Isaias and look at early preparedness for the system understanding that impacts from this system remain in flux..
..The National Hurricane Center in Miami has placed all of Southern New England in the “cone of uncertainty” concerning impacts from the region from Hurricane Isasis and this necessitates the start of coordination messages for Isasis at this time..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will be possible some time in the Tuesday Morning through early Wednesday Morning timeframe depending on the track speed and intensity of Isasis. ARES/RACES Groups should monitor the progress of Isasis and seek guidance from their local leadership on any activation plans as we get closer to this potential weather event..

Hurricane Isaias is an 80 MPH Category-1 hurricane approaching and affecting the Bahamas as of the 8 PM EDT Friday Evening 7/31/20 advisory. The current track has a possible landfall in Eastern Florida on Sunday and another potential landfall in Northeast South Carolina to Eastern North Carolina on Monday. It is noted that there has been a westward trend in the guidance today but the guidance could move back further east, stay on the current track or continue its westward trend. The headlines depict the current thinking and the fact that all of Southern New England is in the cone of uncertainty regarding impacts from Isasis in the Tuesday through Wednesday Morning timeframe. Key factors on impacts from Isasis are as follows:

1.) The intensity of Isasis as Isasis is forecast to strengthen overnight into Saturday Morning but then level off and potentially slowly weaken on approach to Florida Sunday. If Isasis is stronger, it could mean greater impacts and possibly less weakening over time and will bear watching.
2.) The track of Isasis as the track has trended further west today implying more land being scrapped as it makes it way up the coast which would still mean a reasonably strong system affecting the area but possibly in a post tropical system form. If it tracks over less coast line, a tropical storm or possibly even stronger system would be possible. The track guidance should gain better agreement over the next 24-48 hours.
3.) The speed of forward motion of Isasis and models are conflicted in how quickly Isasis makes its way up to New England with some models showing the classic acceleration of a tropical system as it makes its way up here while other models show a slower approach. This will be known over future model runs in the next day or two.

Now is the time to consider preparations for a tropical system possibly affecting the region. If it turns out to be a weaker system impact, you will be that much more prepared if another tropical system has potential to affect the region later in the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which has already been very active.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will be possible some time in the Tuesday Morning through early Wednesday Morning timeframe depending on the track speed and intensity of Isasis. ARES/RACES Groups should monitor the progress of Isasis and seek guidance from their local leadership on any activation plans as we get closer to this potential weather event. Another coordination message on Isasis will be posted by 1030 PM Saturday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory package:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Isaias Public Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt34.KNHC.html

Hurricane Isaias Technical Discussion Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt44.KNHC.html

Hurricane Isaias Forecast/Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt24.KNHC.html

Hurricane Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font14.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box