Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Sunday PM and Evening 8/2/20 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are Possible in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours and the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats.
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this area in a Marginal to Slight risk for severe weather. It is noted the best threat for severe weather is in parts of Eastern-Central New York State but severe weather could affect portions of Western New England Sunday afternoon and evening. This severe weather potential has to do with a warm front moving through area and is not in association with Tropical Storm Isaias..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Western New England for Sunday Afternoon and Evening..

A warm front will push through Southern New England during Sunday and behind the warm front, there will be the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms potentially reaching Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut during the afternoon and evening hours. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors on the severe weather potential include:

1.) How far north and east the warm front gets
2.) How much clearing and destabilization builds into Western New England from Eastern New York behind the warm front
3.) High-Resolution models keep the better triggering and forcing south and west of Western New England but have at times brought some better forcing into Western New England. If this can get further north and east into Southern New England, it would increase the severe weather potential for Western New England but if it hangs back into New York there will be isolated or no coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms in Western New England.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Western New England for Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 1230 PM Sunday Afternoon. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200801_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box