Tropical Storm Isaias Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday 8/4/20-Wednesday Morning 8/5/20 Storm Impacts

Hello to all…

..Tropical Storm Isaias is a tropical system approaching East Coastal Florida and should be closely monitored for impacts in Southern New England in the Tuesday through Wednesday Morning timeframe. The type of impacts will depend on Isaias’ track toward the region as well as the speed of forward motion and the intensity of Isaias. SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators should monitor the progress of Isaias and look at early preparedness for the system understanding that impacts from this system remain in flux..
..The National Hurricane Center in Miami has placed all of Southern New England in the “cone of uncertainty” concerning impacts from the region from Tropical Storm Isaias and this necessitates the start of coordination messages for Isaias at this time..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will be possible some time in the Tuesday Morning through Wednesday Morning timeframe depending on the track speed and intensity of Isaias. ARES/RACES Groups should monitor the progress of Isaias and seek guidance from their local leadership on any activation plans as we get closer to this potential weather event..

Tropical Storm Isaias is an 70 MPH tropical storm approaching and affecting East and Southeast Coastal Florida as of the 8 PM EDT Saturday Evening 8/1/20 advisory. The current track has a possible landfall or very close pass to Eastern Florida on Sunday and another potential landfall in Northeast South Carolina to Eastern North Carolina on Monday. It is noted that there has been an eastward trend in the guidance overnight last night and then a slight westward trend in the guidance today but the guidance could move back further east, stay on the current track or continue its westward trend. The headlines depict the current thinking and the fact that all of Southern New England is in the cone of uncertainty regarding impacts from Isaias in the Tuesday through Wednesday Morning timeframe. Key factors on impacts from Isaias are as follows:

1.) The intensity of Isaias as Isaias is forecast to strengthen overnight back into a hurricane Sunday Morning but then level off and potentially slowly weaken as it moves away from Florida Monday Morning. If Isaias is stronger, it could mean greater impacts and possibly less weakening over time and will bear watching. It is noted that Isasis’ appearance on satellite imagery has been looking better at the time of this coordination message posting.
2.) The track of Isaias is about the same as last night’s coordination message except it will remain a close call on whether a landfall in Florida will occur. The current track implies more land being scrapped as it makes it way up the coast but also intervals where its out over water. Models still show a reasonably strong system affecting the area, potentially as a moderate tropical storm. If it tracks over less coast line, a high end tropical storm or possibly even stronger system would be possible though this is a less likely scenario. If it scrapes even more land or is further west, less impacts would affect the region. The track guidance should gain better agreement over the next 24-36 hours.
3.) The speed of forward motion of Isaias and models are conflicted in how quickly Isaias makes its way up to New England with some models showing the classic acceleration of a tropical system as it makes its way up here while other models show a slower approach. This will be known over future model runs in the next day or two. It is noted the approach of Isaias is a bit slower than some models indicated last night with impacts in the late Tuesday Morning to Wednesday Morning timeframe as a rough estimate.

Now is the time to consider preparations for a tropical system possibly affecting the region. If it turns out to be a weaker system impact, you will be that much more prepared if another tropical system has potential to affect the region later in the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which has already been very active.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will be possible some time in the Tuesday Morning through Wednesday Morning timeframe depending on the track speed and intensity of Isaias. ARES/RACES Groups should monitor the progress of Isaias and seek guidance from their local leadership on any activation plans as we get closer to this potential weather event. Another coordination message on Isaias will be posted by 1030 PM Sunday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory package:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt34.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Isaias Technical Discussion Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt44.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast/Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt24.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font14.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
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