Tropical Storm Isaias Coordination Message #3 – Tuesday 8/4/20-Wednesday Morning 8/5/20 Storm Impacts

Hello to all…

..Tropical Storm Isaias is expected to intensify into a category-1 hurricane before landfall in Southeast North Carolina into Northeast South Carolina. Isaias will then hug the coast and track through the Eastern New Jersey, the New York City area and Western Connecticut and Western Massachusetts putting most of Southern New England in the strong to damaging wind and severe weather side of this system with tropical downpours and potential thunderstorms but overall less rainfall than the west side of the system..
..A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for all of Southern New England for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 50-60 MPH with isolated higher gusts possible along with 1-3″ of rain possible with the highest amounts in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut and in/near thunderstorms with heavy downpours. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages. Urban and poor drainage flooding is possible in areas that receive heavy downpours..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Southern New England in a Marginal Risk for severe weather with a possible upgrade to Slight Risk in later outlooks for the potential of damaging straightline winds from convective showers and thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes since we will be on the east side of the storm system..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will commence as required early Tuesday Morning lasting through Wednesday Morning with the peak of the worst conditions working west to east from late Tuesday Afternoon through early Wednesday Morning. ARES/RACES Groups should monitor the progress of Isaias and seek guidance from their local leadership on any activation plans as we get closer to this potential weather event..

Tropical Storm Isaias is a 70 MPH tropical storm approaching Northeast South Carolina and southeast North Carolina and is expected to intensify into a minimal Category-1 hurricane as of the 8 AM EDT Monday 8/3/20 advisory. The current track has landfall in Northeast South Carolina to Eastern North Carolina on late Monday Night. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors:

1.) The intensity of Isaias as Isaias is forecast to strengthen into a minimal Category-1 hurricane before landfall in the Carolinas and then track through Western New England. This puts Southern New England in the strong to damaging wind area with the possibility for severe weather but less rainfall in most of the area except for parts of Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut and areas that received showery tropical downpours.
2.) Isaias will track here with increasing forward speed meaning the forward speed of motion can add on to sustained wind speeds and wind gusts in the area. This aspect will bear monitoring for the damaging wind potential.
3.) Isaias will be quick hitting with a 6-9 hour period of strong to damaging winds and potential for thunderstorms and convective tropical downpours bringing strong winds down to the surface along with the potential for a couple isolated tornadoes.

Preparations for a tropical storm should be made and completed by late Monday Night into Tuesday Morning. If it turns out to be a weaker system impact, you will be that much more prepared if another tropical system has potential to affect the region later in the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which has already been very active.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor Isaias for local impacts Tuesday Afternoon into Wednesday Morning. The rough timeframe of worst conditions will be late Tuesday Afternoon into the early overnight hours of Wednesday Morning but some deteriorating conditions could start as early as Tuesday Morning with lingering conditions to around daybreak Wednesday Morning depending on track, speed and intensity. Another coordination message on Isaias will be posted by 1030 PM Monday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Tropical Storm Isaias Local Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Facebook Infographics, Tropical Weather Safety Tips, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook, and National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory package including NHC Graphics:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Tropical Storm Isaias Local Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Facebook Infographics:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.3170984442995905/3170983612995988/?type=3&theater

NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Preparedness Week Public Information Statements:
http://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/pns_hurricane_preparedness_week_2020.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Safety Page:
https://www.weather.gov/box/hurricane_safety

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt34.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Isaias Technical Discussion Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt44.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast/Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt24.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font14.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Isaias Key Messages:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/092753.shtml?key_messages#contents

Tropical Storm Isaias Storm Graphics:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/092753.shtml?cone#contents

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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