Hurricane Isiais Coordination Message #4 – Tuesday 8/4/20-Wednesday AM 8/5/20 Impacts

Hello to all…

..Isaias reintensifies into a category-1 hurricane before landfall later tonight in Southeast North Carolina into Northeast South Carolina. Isaias will then hug the coast and track through the Eastern New Jersey, the New York City area and Western Connecticut and Western Massachusetts putting most of Southern New England in the strong to damaging wind and severe weather side of this system with tropical downpours and potential thunderstorms but overall less rainfall than the west side of the system..
..A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for all of Southern New England for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 50-60 MPH with isolated higher gusts possible along with 1-4″ of rain possible with the highest amounts in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut and in/near thunderstorms with heavy downpours. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages. Urban and poor drainage flooding is possible in areas that receive heavy downpours..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Southern New England in a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe weather with the area from Springfield to Amherst to Worcester south through Connecticut and Rhode Island in the slight risk area for the potential of damaging straightline winds from convective showers and thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes since we will be on the east side of the storm system..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for Hartford County Connecticut and Hampden, Hampshire and Franklin Counties of Massachusetts where the greatest risk of urban and poor drainage flooding is and the potential for small stream flooding and other larger streams and rivers could have strong in bank rises from the heavy rainfall..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will commence as required early Tuesday Morning lasting through Wednesday Morning with the peak of the worst conditions working west to east from late Tuesday Afternoon through early Wednesday Morning. ARES/RACES Groups should monitor the progress of Isaias and seek guidance from their local leadership on any activation plans as we get closer to this potential weather event..

Hurricane Isaias is a 85 MPH Category-1 hurricane approaching and affecting Northeast South Carolina and southeast North Carolina as of the 9 PM EDT Monday 8/3/20 Tropical Cyclone Update. The current track has landfall in Northeast South Carolina to Eastern North Carolina on late Monday Night or early Tuesday Morning. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors:

1.) The intensity of Isaias as Isaias is now a Category-1 hurricane and will make landfall in the Carolinas and then track through Western New England interacting with a frontal zone which will allow for Isaias to maintain tropical storm intensity levels as it moves through the region. This puts Southern New England in the strong to damaging wind area with the possibility for severe weather but less rainfall in most of the area except for parts of Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut and areas that received showery tropical downpours.
2.) Isaias will track here with increasing forward speed meaning the forward speed of motion can add on to sustained wind speeds and wind gusts in the area. This aspect will bear monitoring for the damaging wind potential.
3.) Isaias will be quick hitting with a 6-9 hour period of strong to damaging winds and potential for thunderstorms and convective tropical downpours bringing strong winds down to the surface along with the potential for a couple isolated tornadoes.
4.) The heaviest rainfall outside of localized areas that receive repeated convective heavy showers and downpours will be in the Flash Flood Watch area of Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut where 2-4″ of rain with isolated higher amounts are possible. This will raise the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and small stream flooding with larger rivers and streams experiencing sharp within bank rises.

Preparations for a tropical storm should be made and completed by late Monday Night into Tuesday Morning. If it turns out to be a weaker system impact, you will be that much more prepared if another tropical system has potential to affect the region later in the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which has already been very active.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor Isaias for local impacts Tuesday Afternoon into Wednesday Morning. The rough timeframe of worst conditions will be late Tuesday Afternoon into the early overnight hours of Wednesday Morning but some deteriorating conditions could start as early as Tuesday Morning with lingering conditions to around daybreak Wednesday Morning depending on track, speed and intensity. Another coordination message on Isaias will be posted by 1030 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Hurricane Isaias Local Statement, Flash Flood Watch statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Facebook Infographics, Tropical Weather Safety Tips, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook, and National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory package including NHC Graphics:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Isaias Local Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Preparedness Week Public Information Statements:
http://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/pns_hurricane_preparedness_week_2020.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Safety Page:
https://www.weather.gov/box/hurricane_safety

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200803_1730.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Isaias Public Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt34.KNHC.html

Hurricane Isaias Technical Discussion Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt44.KNHC.html

Hurricane Isaias Forecast/Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt24.KNHC.html

Hurricane Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font14.KNHC.html

Hurricane Isaias Key Messages:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/092753.shtml?key_messages#contents

Hurricane Isaias Storm Graphics:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/092753.shtml?cone#contents

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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