Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday 8/25/20 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Scattered to Numerous Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely Tuesday presuming sufficient moisture and instability in the atmosphere associated with a strong cold front that will bring an end to the heat and humidity of the last few days. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a Slight Risk for Severe Weather across all of Southern New England. Timeframe is 12-8 PM Tuesday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will be active for the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening..

While less in coverage and intensity than this weekend, a few strong to severe thunderstorms developed over Southern New England this afternoon. The NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report on today’s severe weather event is listed below and photos of the last 3 days of severe weather will be posted this evening:

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Monday 8/24/20 Severe Weather Event:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2008250201.nwus51.html

Tuesday, a strong cold front will swing through New England and with it bring a more widespread potential for strong to severe thunderstorms across all of New England. The headlines depict the current thinking and the caveats to the potential for more widespread severe weather for Tuesday. Key factors include:

1.) Timing of the cold front to allow for sufficient heating and destabilization.
2.) Amount of mid-level dry air in the atmosphere and moisture convergence as there needs to be sufficient moisture in the atmosphere for severe thunderstorm development and to sustain updrafts.
3.) Wind shear profiles will be the strongest of the last few days and will need to be monitored if sufficient heating, destabilization and moisture are available for more widespread pockets of wind damage from strong to severe thunderstorms.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will be active for the severe weather potential for Tuesday. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200824_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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