Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday 8/27/20 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..The potential exists for a high-end severe weather outbreak over portions of Southwest Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island Thursday Afternoon and Evening with other areas north and east needing to monitor pending the position of the warm front, currently expected to be through at least West-Central Massachusetts and sufficient clearing for heating and destabilization over areas south and west of this warm front..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western to South-Central Massachusetts and Rhode Island in Enhanced Risk for Severe Weather with a slight risk for severe weather and surrounding the enhanced risk area, a marginal to slight risk of severe weather for the rest of Central and Eastern Massachusetts. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and isolated tornadoes are all potential threats..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will closely monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday with the timeframe anytime between 12-9 PM EDT..

After a one day reprieve in severe weather potential, a potentially high-end severe weather outbreak is possible over portions of Southern New England. The headlines depict current thinking. Key factors in this severe weather potential include:

1.) Position of the warm front and how far north and east it gets. The further north and east it gets, the greater the severe weather potential including the greater the risk across a larger portion of Southern New England. If the warm front remains south and west of the region, it would mute the severe weather potential. At this time the warm frontal position modeled best aligns with the slight to enhanced risk areas meaning the warm front should get through Southwest Massachusetts particularly along and south of the Mass Pike and just west of I-495 through Rhode Island and Connecticut.
2.) Sufficient heating and destabilization after warm frontal passage to allow for high instability.
3.) Wind shear parameters and parameters for rotation are high for this potential severe weather outbreak.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will closely monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday with the timeframe anytime between 12-9 PM EDT. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Thursday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200826_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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