Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Thursday 8/27/20 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..The potential exists for a high-end severe weather outbreak over portions of Southwest Massachusetts and Connecticut with a now more marginal to slight risk for severe weather over Rhode Island along with Central Massachusetts for Thursday Afternoon and Evening as the position of the warm front is a little more south and west than yesterday’s update but still through much of Connecticut with areas of Northeast Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Mass near this front.
..A Tornado Watch is now in effect for Berkshire County Massachusetts and Litchfield County Connecticut until 700 PM EDT. Its possible this watch could expand into other parts of Connecticut and Southwest Massachusetts later today..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Southwest Massachusetts and Connecticut in an Enhanced Risk for severe weather and surrounding that enhanced risk area in Northeast Connecticut, Central and Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island are now in a marginal to slight risk of severe weather. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and isolated tornadoes are all potential threats..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will closely monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday through 9 PM EDT..

After a one day reprieve in severe weather potential, a potentially high-end severe weather outbreak is possible over portions of Southern New England. The headlines depict current thinking including the warm frontal position being a bit more south and west than yesterday’s update. Key factors in this severe weather potential include:

1.) Position of the warm front and how far north and east it gets. The further north and east it gets, the greater the severe weather potential including the greater the risk across a larger portion of Southern New England. If the warm front remains south and west of the region, it would mute the severe weather potential. At this time the warm frontal position modeled best aligns with the slight to enhanced risk areas meaning the warm front should get through Southwest Massachusetts particularly along and south of the Mass Pike into Western and Central Connecticut with Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts having a more conditional risk with the warm front right on top of these areas..
2.) Sufficient heating and destabilization after warm frontal passage to allow for high instability.
3.) Wind shear parameters and parameters for rotation are high for this potential severe weather outbreak.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will closely monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday with the timeframe anytime through 9 PM EDT today. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Tornado Watch #455 Information, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Tornado Watch #455 Information:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0455.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1594.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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