Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Saturday 8/29/20 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Southern New England with the highest potential in Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut between about 4-10 PM Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather Saturday with a slight risk for severe weather back into Eastern New York where conditions will be more favorable..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Saturday..

Another round of severe weather occurred on Thursday but more isolated in nature in the NWS Norton coverage area as the warm front never quite made it through enough of Southern New England to get into our coverage area. Areas of Southwest and South-Central Connecticut saw significant severe weather and the NWS Brookhaven New York confirmed an EF1 Tornado from Bethany to North Haven CT along with multiple microbursts and other communities of New Haven County CT. The NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report along with the NWS Brookhaven NY Local Storm Report and Public Information Statement on damage surveys are listed below:

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2008271905.nwus51.html

NWS Brookhaven NY Public Information Statement – Storm Damage Surveys:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KOKX/2008290246.nous41.html

NWS Brookhaven NY Local Storm Report:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KOKX/2008280250.nwus51.html (Summary)
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KOKX/2008290329.nwus51.html (Connecticut Tornado confirmed via damage survey)

For Saturday, a warm front will be able to push through Southern New England and there will be strong wind shear again in the upper levels of the atmosphere for severe thunderstorm development. Instability, however, could be quite marginal due to cloud cover. If the strong wind shear conditions in the upper levels of the atmosphere can overcome lower instability values or more clearing develops to allow for greater instability, the severe weather potential in our region would be increased and this will bear watching. At this time, the greatest chance for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms is in Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut. The potential is more conditional farther east given the potential for cloud cover to hold on longer in this area then in western parts of the area.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Saturday. This will be the last coordination message on this severe weather potential as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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