Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Late Thursday Afternoon 7/29/21 Thru Early Friday Morning 7/30/21 Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible anytime late Thursday Afternoon into early Friday Morning along and south of the Mass Pike. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats but even an isolated weak tornado is a secondary threat. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the region along and south of the Mass Pike in Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential anytime late Thursday Afternoon into early Friday Morning with the highest potential late Thursday Night into early Friday Morning..
A warm front will be in the vicinity of Southern New England late Thursday Afternoon into early Friday Morning before a cold front sweeps through the area. This will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential along and south of the Mass Pike. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:
1.) Instability levels will likely be muted but wind shear and helicity or turning in the atmosphere would be sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorm development and could compensate for limited instability. The helicity level and other factors mean an isolated weak tornado is possible.
2.) How far north the warm sector moves into Southern New England and whether it encompasses the southern part of Southern New England, much of or all of Southern New England or if it stays shunted south of Southern New England. Current models indicate the southern half of Southern New England has the greatest risk for strong to severe thunderstorm development but could change as we get closer to the event.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential anytime late Thursday Afternoon into early Friday Morning with the highest potential late Thursday Night into early Friday Morning. The next coordination message will be posted by 11 AM EDT Thursday. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: email@example.com
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