Storm Coordination Message #3 – Tuesday 10/25/21-Wednesday 10/26/21 – Coastal Storm/Nor’easter Storm Hazards

Hello to all…

..Powerful coastal storm on track for significant impacts of heavy rainfall and the potential for urban, poor drainage, river and stream flooding to flash flooding across much of Southern New England, damaging winds across Central and Eastern Massachusetts, Northeast Connecticut and Rhode Island and minor coastal flooding across multiple high tide cycles across East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 2 PM Tuesday Afternoon to 2 PM Wednesday Afternoon for Cape Cod and the Islands and Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts for sustained winds of 35-45 MPH with gusts to 70 MPH likely and isolated higher wind gusts to hurricane force possible causing scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages across this area..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 2 PM Tuesday Afternoon to 2 PM Wednesday Afternoon for Eastern Essex, Southeast Middlesex, Norfolk, Bristol, Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts, Bristol, Newport, and Washington Counties of Rhode Island for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH likely and isolated higher gusts possible. These winds will cause scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages across the area..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 6 PM Tuesday Evening to 2 PM Wednesday Afternoon for Windham County Connecticut, Providence and Kent Counties Rhode Island, and Southern Worcester, Central Middlesex and Western Essex Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH with isolated higher gusts possible. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages across the area..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect from 2 AM Tuesday through Wednesday Evening for all of the NWS Norton coverage area except for Western Franklin County Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands for 3-6″ of rainfall with isolated higher amounts and the potential for urban, poor drainage, river and stream flooding..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 3 AM-7 AM Wednesday Morning and 3 PM-7 PM Wednesday Evening for Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, Eastern Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes and Nantucket Counties for minor shore road flooding and significant beach erosion at the time of these high tide cycles across the region..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the significant coastal storm potential for Tuesday into Wednesday. ARES/RACES groups should closely monitor the progress of this system and seek advice from local leadership. Pictures of storm damage, river, stream, urban and coastal flooding can be sent to the email address pics@nsradio.org, or via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds as well as a reply to this message..

After a relatively quiet stretch of weather, a powerful coastal storm is on track to take aim on Southern New England Tuesday Morning into Wednesday Afternoon. The headlines depict the current thinking with an upgrade to High Wind Watches to High Wind Warnings and the addition of Wind and Coastal Flood Advisories. Key factors include:

1.) How close the coastal storm approaches. Model guidance shows solutions ranging south of Long Island through south of the Cape and Islands and the current model blend supports the current headlines particularly when it comes to the strong to damaging wind and flood potential. The wind damage potential across Eastern New England will bear close monitoring throughout the storm event.
2.) Heavy rainfall of 3-6″ with scattered higher amounts are likely across much of Southern New England. The axis of heaviest rain within the region will depend on the track, speed and intensity of the coastal storm. The heavy rainfall is likely to cause urban and poor drainage flooding with some river and stream flooding in areas where the rainfall is heaviest.
3.) While the tidal cycle is not astronomically high, the coastal storm track and slow speed of motion while intensifying could allow for multiple high tide cycles of minor coastal flooding centered on the tide cycles for Wednesday.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the significant coastal storm potential Tuesday into Wednesday. ARES/RACES groups should closely monitor the progress of this system and seek advice from local leadership. Pictures of storm damage, river, stream, urban and coastal flooding can be sent to the email address pics@nsradio.org, or via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds as well as a reply to this message.. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM EDT Tuesday Morning if operations are not fully active for heavy rainfall currently occuring over Cape Cod and Southeast coastal New England. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Flood Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and Area Forecast Discussion, Rainfall Map and Wind Gust Table:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Rainfall Map:
http://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Rainfall-Graphic.png

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Gust Table:
http://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Peak-Wind-Gusts-Graphic.png

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box