Storm/Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Friday 11/12/21 Heavy Rainfall/Strong Wind/Isolated Severe Thunderstorm Potential

Hello to all…

..A strong cold front will bring a period of brief heavy rainfall with a quick 1-2″ of rain, strong wind gusts of 35-50 MPH with isolated higher gusts at the coast, and the possibility for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds as the primary threat and even an isolated tornado as a secondary threat Friday Morning through early Friday Evening. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued Connecticut, Rhode Island, Southwest, South-Central and Southeast Massachusetts in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect through 7 PM Friday Evening for Eastern Essex, Bristol, Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes, Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts, Eastern Kent, Washington, Bristol and Newport Counties Rhode Island for sustained winds 20-30 MPH with gusts up to 50 MPH likely. These winds with a number of trees still having leaves on them will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. Winds could be locally enhanced in any convective showers and thunderstorms..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather, strong wind and heavy rainfall potential for Friday..

A strong cold front will bring a brief period of heavy rainfall, strong wind gusts and isolated severe thunderstorm potential. The headlines depict the current thinking with the biggest change being a Wind Advisory for South-Central Rhode Island, Southeast Massachusetts including the Cape and Islands and the Cape Ann area of Eastern Essex County. Key factors remain as follows:

1.) Amount of instability or ability for strong winds aloft and jet dynamics to allow for any isolated strong to severe thunderstorms to form along the cold front.
2.) Ability for strong winds in any convective showers and thunderstorms to reach the surface. If temperatures reach the mid-60s or higher, these winds will have a greater potential to reach the surface. Given some of the wind profiles and the potential for temperatures to warm to the mid-60s, strong winds may occur generally and in any convective showers and thunderstorms so a Wind advisory has been posted for Southeast New England and the Cape Ann area.
3.) Any flooding should be confined to nuisance urban and poor drainage flooding but will be monitored.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather, strong wind and heavy rainfall potential for Friday. This will be the last coordination message on Friday’s storm system as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook, Rainfall/Wind Gust Maps:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

NWS Boston/Norton Rainfall/Wind Gust Map:
http://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/NWS-Boston_Norton_Rainfall_Wind_Gust_Map_11_12_21.jpg

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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