Storm Coordination Message #4 – Storm Hazards Friday 1/14/22-Saturday AM 1/15/22 & Sunday Night 1/16/22-Monday 1/17/22

Hello to all…

..Active Weather Pattern starting Friday into Saturday Morning with an offshore ocean storm affecting Southeast New England with damaging winds and a second more widespread significant storm for Sunday Night into Monday..
..A High Wind Warning remains in effect from 11 AM Friday Morning to 5 AM Saturday Morning for Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 40-50 MPH with gusts up to 70 MPH likely with isolated higher gusts possible. These winds will cause scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. Power outages couple with bitter cold conditions are a significant concern in this area if the outages become widespread and this is possible..
..A Wind Advisory is remains in effect from 11 AM Friday Morning to 5 AM Saturday Morning for Rhode Island, Eastern Essex, Southeast Middlesex, Suffolk, Norfolk, Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH with isolated higher gusts possible except Eastern Plymouth County of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 55 MPH. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..The Winter Weather Advisory for Cape Cod and the Islands has been cancelled as the precipitation is expected to move out before allowing for a flash freeze or heavier snowfall to occur. Snowfall of a Coating to 1″ is expected in Southeast New England with the 1″ amounts over parts of Cape Cod and the Islands with a flash freeze less likely..
..A Wind Chill Warning is now in effect from 7 PM Friday Evening through 12 PM Saturday Afternoon for Western Franklin, Western Hampshire and Western Hampden Counties of Massachusetts for dangerously cold wind chills to 30 below zero. A Wind Chill Advisory is now in effect from 7 PM Friday Evening through 12 PM Saturday Afternoon for Northern Connecticut, North-Central Rhode Island and the remainder of western, central and interior Eastern and coastal Northeast Massachusetts for wind chill indices for 15 to 24 below zero. Areas outside of these wind chill advisories/warnings could see wind chills to 10 to 15 below zero..
..A significant storm system is likely Sunday Night to Monday but track and details are uncertain and will have major impacts on what areas could see heavier snowfall and strong to damaging winds versus heavy rainfall and strong to damaging winds. At this time, interior portions of Southern New England are favored for heavy snowfall, particularly Western and Northern Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut. This will be better defined in future updates likely post the Friday into Saturday Morning storm event..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely for Friday into Saturday Morning and Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets on the 146.955-Barnstable Repeater will occur for wind damage reports and a couple other area repeaters in Southeast New England will be monitored more loosely. The Cape and Islands Weather Net at 600 AM Saturday Morning will also be monitored for wind gust and wind damage reports on the 147.375 Repeater. SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely for the Sunday Night into Monday storm system as well..

We are entering an active weather period that will likely require SKYWARN support for storm reports with two different storm systems. The focus of this message is on the Friday into Saturday Morning system though we will briefly touch on the storm system Sunday Night into Monday.

For the Friday into Saturday Morning system, the main threats remain the strong to damaging winds in Southeast New England and the dangerously cold wind chills that will affect the region as the departing storm drives in a period of bitter cold air to the region. The headlines depict the current thinking on the winds and wind chills with the potential for numerous pockets of wind damage likely in the High Wind Warning areas of Cape Cod and the Islands and isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage in East Coastal and Southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island where Wind Advisories are posted. Power outages with bitter cold conditions is a cause for concern in Southeast New England and particularly Cape Cod and the Islands as we get into later Friday through early Saturday Morning. Bitter cold wind chills are also expected in the region.

There will also be some snow with this Friday Afternoon to Saturday Morning system. At this time the snow amounts look light and focused on Southeast New England. Winter Weather Advisories for Cape Cod and the Islands were cancelled as the precipitation field will move out before the colder air can cause more appreciable A flash freeze is also possible to likely as the storm system initially brings a period of rain before a changeover to snow with the potential for rapidly falling temperatures. This will be monitored in future model updates.

For the second storm system, it is definitely modeled as an intense storm by all weather models. The details of the impacts will be defined by the track which is quite variable anywhere from a track as far west as Central New York to as far east as Eastern New England. The track differences will determine impacts of heavy snow and/or mixed precipitation along and to the west of the track versus snow to rain along and to the east of the track with strong to damaging winds a concern across the area of this storm system. At this time, interior portions of Southern New England are favored for heavy snowfall, particularly Western and Northern Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut. This will be better defined in future updates likely post the Friday into Saturday Morning storm event. Future model runs will bring clarity to the hazards in the region and further details will be posted once we get past the Friday into Saturday Morning storm system.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely for Friday into Saturday Morning and Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets on the 146.955-Barnstable Repeater will occur for wind damage reports and a couple other area repeaters in Southeast New England will be monitored more loosely. The Cape and Islands Weather Net at 600 AM Saturday Morning will also be monitored for wind gust and wind damage reports on the 147.375 Repeater. SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely for the Sunday Night into Monday storm system as well. This will be the last update on the Friday into Saturday Morning storm system unless a significant update to the situation occurs and time allows for an update as we shift into operations mode for this storm. The next update for the Sunday Night into Monday storm will be posted by 11 AM Saturday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory statement, Wind Gust Map, Winter Weather Advisory/Wind Chill Warning/Advisory Statement & Snowfall Maps and Area Forecast Discussion:

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&product=NPW&issuedby=BOX

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Gust Map:
http://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/1_14_22_Wind_Map_update.png

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Chill Warning/Advisory Statement & Snowfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&product=AFD&issuedby=BOX

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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