Storm Coordination Message #5 – Post Wind Summary Friday 1/14/22 & Storm Hazards Late Sunday Night 1/16/22 Through Monday 1/17/22

Hello to all…

..Active weather pattern continues as we shift focus to the Sunday Night into Monday storm which features heavy snow and/or icing changing to rain before ending in northern and western portions of the area, heavy rain and strong to damaging winds in eastern areas and coastal Southern New England and coastal flood concerns along the east and south facing coastal areas of Southern New England. Bitter cold conditions linger through tonight across Southern New England and winds diminish after strong to damaging winds hugged coastal areas Friday keeping a more widespread damaging wind event from occurring..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for Western Franklin, Western Hampshire and Western Hampden Counties of Massachusetts late Sunday Night through Monday Evening for 6-11″ of snow, ice accumulations of up to 0.10″ and wind gusts to 40 MPH. A Winter Storm Watch is also in effect late Sunday Night through Monday for Eastern Franklin, Northern Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for 3-5″ of snow, ice accumulations around 0.10″ and wind gusts to 40 MPH. The combination of snow and ice and wind could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..Additional watches, warnings and advisories for snow and mixed precipitation, strong to damaging winds and coastal flooding will likely be issued in future updates..
..A Wind Chill Warning remains in effect through 12 PM Saturday Afternoon for Western Franklin, Western Hampshire and Western Hampden Counties of Massachusetts for dangerously cold wind chills to 30 below zero. A Wind Chill Advisory remains in effect through 12 PM Saturday Afternoon for Northern Connecticut, North-Central Rhode Island and the remainder of western, central and interior Eastern and coastal Northeast Massachusetts for wind chill indices for 15 to 24 below zero. Areas outside of these wind chill advisories/warnings could see wind chills to 10 to 15 below zero..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely late Sunday Night and especially Monday for multiple storm hazards from this storm system with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets likely. Additional info on Amateur Radio Net operations will be posted in future updates..

We continue to be in an active weather period as we now shift attention to the late Sunday Night into Monday storm event. Over Friday into early Saturday Morning, wind gusts between 40 and 70 MPH occurred across Cape Cod and the Islands with wind gusts between 40-55 MPH with isolated higher gusts over East and South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island. The highest wind gusts were along the immediate coast and that along with lack of leaves or wet snow precluded a more damaging wind event. The following is the NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report and Amateur Radio log of reports received yesterday on these strong winds:

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report:
http://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/LSR_1_14_12.pdf

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log of Reports:
http://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/reports_1_14_22.pdf

For the Sunday Night into Monday Evening storm system, the track that is favored is across Eastern Pennsylvania and East-Central New York. This means a front-end thump of snow and ice across Northern and Western Massachusetts with areas of Northern Connecticut, Northwest Rhode Island and interior Northeast Massachusetts seeing snow and mixed precipitation changing over to rain. The coastal plain will see snow quickly changing to a period of heavy rain with this system. In addition, there will be strong to damaging winds across Coastal Southern New England potentially in interior Southern New England with the potential for minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide across East and possibly South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island. The headlines depict the current thinking and key factors will include:

1.) The exact track of the storm system as a further west track will mean less snow and more rain even in northern and northwest part of our coverage area. A track further east would mean more snow and ice for interior Southern New England. Coastal areas will likely see a quick changeover to rain unless their is a significant change in the track further east.
2.) The extent of the strong to damaging winds across the region. There will be very strong winds aloft and the key to the extent of wind damage will be how well it gets to the surface and whether it penetrates inland versus being confined to coastal areas. In interior locations, particularly those areas that receive snow and ice, the wind will also bear watching as if those winds are able to make the surface with wet snow and/or ice on trees and power lines, it could allow for pockets of damage due to that combination of winds, snow and ice.
3.) Extent of coastal flooding contingent on the winds and whether the strongest winds will occur near or during the Monday Morning high tide cycle with an east or southeasterly wind component. This will be better defined in future forecasts.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is late Sunday Night and especially Monday for multiple storm hazards from this storm system with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets likely. Additional info on Amateur Radio Net operations will be posted in future updates. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 PM Saturday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch/Wind Chill Warning/Advisory Statement, Snowfall Maps, and Area Forecast Discussion:

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch/Wind Chill Warning/Advisory Statement & Snowfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&product=AFD&issuedby=BOX

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box