Storm Coordination Message #6 – Late Sunday Night 1/16/22-Monday 1/17/22 Storm Hazards
Hello to all…
..Active weather pattern continues focusing on the major storm system for Sunday Night into Monday storm which features heavy snow and/or icing changing to rain before ending in northern and western portions of the area, heavy rain and strong to damaging winds in eastern areas and coastal Southern New England and coastal flood concerns along the east and south facing coastal areas of Southern New England.
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Franklin, Western Hampshire, Western Hampden, Northern Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts late Sunday Night through Monday Evening for 5-9″ of snow, ice accumulations of around 0.10″ and wind gusts to 40 MPH..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect from late Sunday Night to Monday Morning for East and South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands and South Coastal Rhode Island including Block Island for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 65 MPH and scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Coastal Flood Watch is now in effect from Monday Morning to Monday Afternoon for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands for widespread minor to pockets of moderate coastal flooding at the time of the Monday Morning high tide cycle with the greatest threat of moderate coastal flooding in the North Shore of Massachusetts particularly in the vicinity of Plum Island..
..Additional watches, warnings and advisories for snow and mixed precipitation, strong to damaging winds and coastal flooding will likely be issued in future updates..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely late Sunday Night and especially Monday for multiple storm hazards from this storm system with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets likely. Additional info on Amateur Radio Net operations will be posted by the Sunday Evening coordination message or sooner if the plan is fully defined at that time..
For the Sunday Night into Monday Evening storm system, the track that is favored is across Eastern Pennsylvania and East-Central New York. This means a front-end thump of snow and ice across Northern and Western Massachusetts with areas of Northern Connecticut, Northwest Rhode Island and interior Northeast Massachusetts seeing snow and mixed precipitation changing over to rain. The coastal plain will see snow quickly changing to a period of heavy rain with this system. In addition, there will be strong to damaging winds across Coastal Southern New England potentially in interior Southern New England with the potential for minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide across East and possibly South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island. The headlines depict the current thinking and key factors will include:
1.) The exact track of the storm system as a further west track will mean less snow and more rain even in northern and northwest part of our coverage area. A track further east would mean more snow and ice for interior Southern New England. Coastal areas will likely see a quick changeover to rain unless their is a significant change in the track further east. It is noted that one suite of reliable model guidance shifted a bit eastward but most other models kept the same tracks as this morning. Trends will bear watching regarding the eventual track of the storm system.
2.) The extent of the strong to damaging winds across the region. There will be very strong winds aloft and the key to the extent of wind damage will be how well it gets to the surface and whether it penetrates inland versus being confined to coastal areas. A High Wind Watch is now in effect for the areas that have the highest confidence for damaging winds and further watches, warnings and advisories will likely be needed in future updates. In interior locations, particularly those areas that receive snow and ice, the wind will also bear watching as if those winds are able to make the surface with wet snow and/or ice on trees and power lines, it could allow for pockets of damage due to that combination of winds, snow and ice.
3.) A Coastal Flood Watch is now posted for East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands for widespread minor to pockets of moderate coastal flooding with the greatest risk for moderate coastal flooding in the North Shore of Massachusetts particularly around Plum Island. These trends will be monitored as we get closer to the storm event.
SKYWARN Self-Activation is late Sunday Night and especially Monday for multiple storm hazards from this storm system with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets likely. Additional info on Amateur Radio Net operations will be posted in future updates. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Sunday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch Statement, Snowfall Maps, High Wind Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Watch Statement, and Area Forecast Discussion:
NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch Statement & Snowfall Maps:
NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch Statement:
NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: firstname.lastname@example.org
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