Storm Coordination Message #3 – Late Monday Evening 4/18/22-Tuesday 4/19/22 Coastal Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..After ideal weather conditions for the 2022 Boston Marathon, a strong coastal storm will impact Southern New England with soaking rains, strong to damaging winds, the possibility of minor coastal flooding at the time of the early Tuesday Morning high tide cycle and even higher elevation snow possibly for the higher elevations of North-Central Massachusetts but more likely along the east slopes of the Berkshires depending on the track of the coastal storm system..
..A High Wind Warning remains in effect from 1 AM to 10 AM Tuesday Morning for sustained winds of 35-45 MPH with gusts to 65 MPH and isolated higher gusts possible. These winds will have the potential for scattered pockets of tree and power line damage and scattered power outages..
..A Wind Advisory remains in effect from 1 AM to 10 AM Tuesday Morning for Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, Plymouth, Southern Bristol County Massachusetts and Newport and Washington Counties of Rhode Island including Block Island Rhode Island for sustained winds 25-35 MPH with gusts to 55 MPH. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 8 PM Monday Evening through 11 AM Tuesday Morning for Northwest Franklin County Massachusetts for wet snow accumulations of up to 3-4″ particularly above 1500 feet before a changeover to rain. Other areas of Western Hampshire, Western Hampden, Eastern Franklin and Northwest Worcester Counties could see a coating to 2″ of wet snow before a changeover to rain. If wet snow accumulates to 3″ or more, the wet snow coupled with wind gusts to 40 MPH could cause isolated pockets of tree and power line damage and isolated power outages..
..A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk and Eastern Plymouth Counties for minor coastal flooding at the Tuesday Morning high tide cycle..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the coastal storm system for late Monday Night into Tuesday Morning. This will be the last coordination message on this storm event as we shift into operations mode..

A strong coastal storm will affect Southern New England after ideal weather conditions for the 2022 Boston Marathon. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) The track of the storm system has settled into a location where some accumulating snow at elevations of 1500 feet are possible particularly in Northwest Franklin County where the Winter Weather Advisory is posted. Wet snow damage would be possible if 3″ or more occur with 40 MPH wind gusts.
2.) The track of the storm system will also impact the extent of the strong winds. On the current track, the current wind headlines are in place with High Wind Warnings for the Cape and Islands and Wind Advisories for East and South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island.
3.) The strongest winds right now are expected to be between high tide cycles with a shift in wind direction but some splashover and possible pockets of minor coastal flooding are possible. A coastal flood statement has been issued focus on the early Tuesday Morning high tide cycle.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the coastal storm system for late Monday Night into Tuesday Morning. This will be the last coordination message on this storm event as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Winter Weather Advisory and Snowfall Map, Coastal Flood Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Wind Gust Map and Rainfall Map:

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&product=NPW&issuedby=BOX

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Weather Advisory & Snowfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&product=CFW&issuedby=BOX

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Gust Map:
http://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/MaxWindGustMphISC_4_18_22_400_PM_update.png

NWS Boston/Norton Rainfall Maps:
http://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/StormTotalQPF_SFC_4_18_22_400_PM_update.png

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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