Heat & Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Heat Potential – Weekend of 5/21-5/22/22 – Severe Weather Potential Friday Night 5/20-Sunday 5/22/22

Hello to all…

..Intense Heat & Humidity is expected this weekend so use caution outdoors with any strenuous activities, drink plenty of liquids and find locations to cool off if out in the heat and humidity for an extended period of the time. There will also be the threat for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms on Sunday Afternoon and Evening in interior portions of Southern New England with a much lower chance of an isolated strong or possibly severe thunderstorm across Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts late tonight after 11 PM Friday Evening through 5 AM Saturday Morning..
..A Heat Advisory is now in effect from 8 AM Saturday to 8 PM Sunday for the entire NWS Norton Coverage area except for the East Slopes of the Berkshire, South Coastal Rhode Island and East and South Coastal Massachusetts for heat indices to 99 degrees..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of interior Southern New England in a marginal to slight risk of severe weather for Sunday Afternoon and Evening for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for overnight Friday and especially Sunday Afternoon and Evening..

Intense heat and humidity will affect Southern New England this weekend with heat advisories posted for most of the NWS Norton coverage area as posted in the headlines of the message. There are a couple chances for strong to severe thunderstorms with the greatest risk Sunday Afternoon and evening with a lower grade much more conditional risk overnight Friday Night.

For the Friday overnight potential, a mesoscale convective vortex or MCV is moving across Long Island and south of Long Island but is spreading heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms into Southern Connecticut. This is associated with the warm front which will move through the region overnight to bring the intense heat and humidity to the region. This complex along with instability moving in via an elevated mixed layer could bring a low chance of an isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorm over Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts late tonight into the overnight hours and this will be monitored via SKYWARN Self-Activation.

A better chance for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms exists on Sunday Afternoon and Evening as a cold front moves through the region with high instability and sufficient wind shear in place. The key factor in the coverage and intensity of the strong to severe thunderstorms on Sunday will be the timing of the cold front close enough to peak heating for the severe weather potential to be realized. This will be better known as we get closer to Sunday in future model runs. Portions of interior Southern New England are in a marginal to slight risk of severe weather per SPC.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for overnight Friday and especially Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted on Sunday’s severe weather potential by 11 PM Saturday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement and Graphics, Area Forecast Discussion and SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory and Heat Indices Graphics:
http://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/heat_advisory.png
http://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Heat_Indices_Saturday.png
http://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Heat_Indices_Sunday.png

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2022/day3otlk_20220520_0730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Late Monday Afternoon/Evening 5/16/22 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe thunderstorms are possible to likely over Western Massachusetts through Northern Connecticut as the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a slight risk for severe weather in this area with a marginal risk for severe weather further east through Eastern Massachusetts. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding possible in the strong to severe thunderstorms. Threat timeframe is 5 PM-11 PM late Monday Afternoon and Evening with the main focus time 5-9 PM as storms will weaken after 9 PM with loss of heating..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening..

A cold front will swing through Southern New England and bring with it the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for late Monday Afternoon into Monday Evening. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) The timing of the cold front as earlier timing near the time of peak heating would increase the threat for severe weather while later timing would reduce the severe weather potential as instability decreases after sunset. Models are split up on the timing with the current outlook looking a bit later into the region but not quite as late as yesterday’s model runs so the severe weather threat looks highest in our coverage area from Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden Counties of Massachusetts and Hartford and Tolland counties of Connecticut west with some risk a bit further east into Worcester and Western Middlesex Counties as storms weaken. The severe weather threat remains isolated to scattered in Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut with a greater threat in Eastern New York but this will be monitored closely.
2.) Wind shear will be strong and this could compensate for later timing of the cold front if its not timed well after sunset and this aspect will bear watching if the timing of the front is around the 7-9 PM timeframe.
3.) Eastern areas will likely see reduced severe weather potential regardless of items 1 and 2 due to marine effects with southerly winds bringing in the cooler ocean influence but will still be monitored for any severe weather potential.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday Late Afternoon/Evening 5/16/22 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe thunderstorms are possible over Western Massachusetts through Northern Connecticut as the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a slight risk for severe weather in this area with a marginal risk for severe weather further east through Eastern Massachusetts. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding possible in the strong to severe thunderstorms. Threat timeframe is 5 PM-11 PM late Monday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening..

A cold front will swing through Southern New England and bring with it the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for late Monday Afternoon into Monday Evening. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) The timing of the cold front as earlier timing near the time of peak heating would increase the threat for severe weather while later timing would reduce the severe weather potential as instability decreases after sunset. Models are split up on the timing with the current outlook looking a bit later into the region keeping the severe weather threat isolated to scattered in Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut with a greater threat in Eastern New York but this will be monitored closely.
2.) Wind shear will be strong and this could compensate for later timing of the cold front if its not timed well after sunset and this aspect will bear watching if the timing of the front is around the 7-9 PM timeframe.
3.) Eastern areas will likely see reduced severe weather potential regardless of items 1 and 2 due to marine effects with southerly winds bringing in the cooler ocean influence but will still be monitored for any severe weather potential.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 1130 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2022/day2otlk_20220515_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Special Announcement: WX4NHC Annual Station Communications Test – Saturday May 28th 2022

Hello to all…

WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center will be holding its annual Communications Test, Saturday May 28th, 2022 from 9 AM-5 PM EDT over a variety of modes and bands. The Amateur Radio station at the National Hurricane Center will be operational for this event as mentioned in the purpose of this event section of the announcement. We hope Amateur Radio Operators can participate in this test via the variety of modes available and additional details on test operations are listed below:

Announcement from WX4NHC
Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, Miami Florida
WX4NHC will be On-The-Air for the Annual Communications Test
Saturday, May 28th , 2022 from 9AM- 5 PM EDT ( 1300z- 2100z)

This is our 42nd year of public service at NHC.

The purpose of this event is to test WX4NHC Amateur Radio Equipment and Antennas at NHC as well as Operator’s home equipment, antennas and computers prior to this year’s Hurricane Season, which starts June 1st and runs through November 30th.

This event is good practice for Ham Radio Operators world-wide to practice Amateur Radio communications available during times of severe weather.

We will be making brief contacts on many frequencies and modes, exchanging signal reports and basic weather data exchange (Sunny, Rain, Temperature, etc.) with any station in any location.

WX4NHC will be On-The-Air on HF, VHF, UHF , 2 & 30 meter APRS and WinLink wx4nhc@winlink.org subject must contain //WL2K.

We will try to stay on the Hurricane Watch Net frequency 14.325 MHz most of the time. Also 7.268 MHz depending on propagation.

However, we will be operating different frequencies depending on QRM.

You may be able to find us on HF by using one of the DX Spotting Networks,
Such as the DX Summit Web Site: http://www.dxsummit.fi/Search.aspx

We will also be on VoIP Hurricane Net 4pm-5pm EDT (2000-2100z)
(IRLP node 9219 / EchoLink WX-TALK Conference node 7203). http://www.voipwx.net/

WX4NHC will also make a few contacts on local VHF and UHF repeaters as well as Florida Statewide SARNET system to test our station equipment.

QSL Cards are available via WD4R.
Please send your card with a S.A.S.E.

Please do NOT send QSLs directly to the Hurricane Center address, as it will get delayed.

Due to security measures and COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic:
NO VISITORS will be allowed entry to NHC.

For more information about WX4NHC, please visit our website
www.wx4nhc.org

Thank you for your participation in the WX4NHC Annual Station Test event.

73, Julio – WX4NHC/WD4R

-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-
Julio Ripoll Architect WD4R
WX4NHC Amateur Radio Asst. Coordinator
www.wx4nhc.org
Celebrating 42 years at the
National Hurricane Center
www.nhc.noaa.gov
-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-

Special Announcement: WX1BOX Amateur Radio SKYWARN Team to Present at FEMA Region 1 Talk Shop – Thursday 5/12/22 at 1 PM ET

Hello to all…

The WX1BOX Amateur Radio SKYWARN team is honored to present at the FEMA Region 1 Talk shop on SKYWARN and Amateur Radio support of SKYWARN Thursday 5/12/22 at 100 PM ET. Details on the talkshop provided by FEMA Region 1’s Jedidiah Fiato below:

Hello friends,

Happy Friday! I hope that all of you are doing great. This is a reminder that we have a great Talk Shop on Thursday, May 12th at 1PM EST. We had a wonderful Talk Shop last month in April with CREW (Communities Responding to Extreme Weather) where we highlighted the connection to extreme weather and climate chaos.

As an extension of that discussion, we are excited to announce that for the May 12th Talk Shop (1PM EST), we will be joined by Rob Macedo who will be representing SKYWARN. In most years, thunderstorms, tornadoes and lightning cause hundreds of injuries and deaths and billions in property and crop damages. To obtain critical weather information, the National Weather Service established SKYWARN with partner organizations. SKYWARN is a volunteer program with between 350,000 and 400,000 trained severe weather spotters. These volunteers help keep their local communities safe by providing timely and accurate reports of severe weather to the National Weather Service.

Please see flyer attached for the event and share with your networks! All are welcome! Also, please see the calendar invite attached as well.

What we will cover:
General SKYWARN information and training opportunities
How volunteers support the mission of the NWS
Examples of SKYWARN storm reports
How SKYWARN storm reports are submitted and used by meteorologists
The role of Amateur Radio at NWS Boston Norton

You can find more about SKYWARN by clicking here!

Zoom Information:

Join ZoomGov Meeting
https://fema.zoomgov.com/j/1619605119

Meeting ID: 161 960 5119
Passcode: 814380

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Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box