Blizzard Coordination Message #4 – 1/12/11 Event

Hello to all…

..Dangerous Major Severe Winter Storm/Blizzard to pound Southern New England with Heavy Snowfall and the potential for strong to damaging winds and blizzard to near blizzard conditions for the region..
..A Blizzard Warning is now in effect from 2 AM to 8 PM Wednesday for Eastern Essex, Southeast Middlesex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, Southern Plymouth, Barnstable and Dukes Counties of Massachusetts for blizzard conditions and 12-16″ of snow with isolated higher amounts except for Eastern Barnstable and Dukes Counties where 4-8″ of snow will occur with isolated higher amounts. Sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts up to 45-55 MPH are possible except for Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard where sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 65 MPH are possible. The winds and heavy snow will cause blizzard conditions for the region and the potential for pockets of tree and wire damage in this region..
..A Winter Storm Warning is in effect from Midnight tonight through 8 PM Wednesday for Southern Bristol County Massachusetts, Newport County Rhode Island and Block Island Rhode Island for 8-12″ of snow with isolated higher amounts. Winds of 10-20 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH are expected in this area with the potential near blizzard conditions at times. The winds and heavy snow will cause blizzard conditions for the region and the potential for pockets of tree and wire damage in this region..
..A Winter Storm Warning is in effect from Midnight to 8 PM Wednesday for the remainder of the NWS Taunton County Warning Area except for Nantucket Island for 12-16″ of snow with isolated higher amounts with the potential for near blizzard conditions at times. Winds of 10-20 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH are expected in this area..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Nantucket Island from 2 AM to 10 PM Wednesday for 2-4″ of snow before the changeover to rain. A High Wind Warning is also in effect for
Nantucket Island from 2 AM to 7 PM Wednesday for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 65 MPH. This area could see pockets of tree and wire damage due to the strong winds..
..Coastal flooding is not expected due to low astronomical high tides, however, some minor splashover on the most vulnerable shore roads and beach erosion are possible on north and east facing coastal areas of Eastern Massachusetts..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 3 AM Wednesday..
..ARES/RACES groups should closely monitor the progress of this system. Winds are still expected to be less than the previous 12/26-12/27/10 major nor’easter/blizzard but with near blizzard to blizzard conditions now more likely in portions of the NWS Taunton County Warning Area, ARES/RACES groups should seek advice from local/regional ARES/RACES leadership. Eastern Massachusetts ARES will be placed on stand-by for Wednesday into early Thursday Morning for this major nor’easter blizzard event..
..Massachusetts State EOC and Massachusetts Emergency Management Regional offices will be in a partial activation mode for this major storm..

Model solutions are in very strong agreement on a powerful major nor’easter with near blizzard to blizzard conditions now becoming more likely over portions of the NWS Taunton County Warning area. The headlines of this coordination message cover the pertinent impacts to the region from this system. The storm impact in terms of wind will be less over areas hard hit by the 12/26-/12/27/10 event but it will be a contributing factor to severe winter/near blizzard to blizzard conditions for the region. The snow rates and accumulation will rival the 12/26-12/27/10 blizzard in Eastern New England and should exceed that event in Central and Western New England.

In an attempt to increase participation further, SKYWARN Coordinators from the region are working on call-up planning on local SKYWARN area repeaters. This will allow Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters to plan snow removal activities and other personal items around gathering data for the SKYWARN Nets. It is noted that the schedule for these nets could change on the fly depending on how the storm situation evolves. Here is some of the information gathered to date from area SKYWARN Coordinators:

Hartford-Tolland County SKYWARN Net – 146.790 PL: 82.5 information provided by Roger Jeanfaiver-K1PAI, Hartford-Tolland County SKYWARN Coordinator:
Call-up Nets planned at 530 AM 730 AM, 930 AM, 1130 AM and will be evaluated in the afternoon pending storm developments

Windham County CT SKYWARN Net – 147.225-Killingly CT Repeater PL: 156.7 Hz information provided by Bernie Dubb-KB1DGY, Windham County SKYWARN Coordinator:
Windham County Skywarn will be conducting nets tomorrow (Wed 1/12) at 9:00 A.M., 11:00 A.M., 1 P.M., 3 P.M., 5 P.M. and immediately after the ARES 4N net at 8:00 P.M. on 147.225 / PL 156.7. This schedule may be adjusted as indicated.

Rhode Island SKYWARN Net – 146.700-Cranston, RI Repeater (The 146.760-Scituate RI repeater is having issues currently) from N1JMA-Martin Mendelson, K1OCD-Adam Hobgood and KB1G-Bill Boyes, RI SKYWARN Coordinators:
Hourly call-up nets from 5 AM to Noon. Assessment on the net schedule will be done at noon time based on storm events.

The New England reflector system, Echolink *NEW-ENG* Node: 9123/IRLP 9123 will be active and always monitored by NWS Taunton looking for SKYWARN reportable criteria snowfall and storm related damage reports. If additional coordinators report timeframes for their nets between now and Midnight Wednesday, the coordination message will be updated with that information. After Midnight, we will be in storm operations mode and there won’t be time to update the message.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 3 AM Wednesday. ARES/RACES groups should closely monitor the progress of this system. Winds are still expected to be less than the previous 12/26-12/27/10 major nor’easter/blizzard but with near blizzard to blizzard conditions now more likely in portions of the NWS Taunton County Warning Area, ARES/RACES groups should seek advice from local/regional ARES/RACES leadership. Eastern Massachusetts ARES will be placed on stand-by for Wednesday into early Thursday Morning for this major nor’easter blizzard event. The Massachusetts State EOC and Massachusetts Emergency Management Regional offices will be in a partial activation mode for this major storm. There maybe one more coordination message updating the status of the SKYWARN Net call-ups over other parts of the region if further info is received prior to midnight Wednesday.

As has been the case in other major storm incidents, precision in reporting is critical and the large amount of reporting is helpful. The data is utilized not only by the National Weather Service but also local, state and federal emergency management, media, American Red Cross and Salvation Army in damage assessment scenarios. All reporting during this event per the SKYWARN reporting criteria will be greatly appreciated. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, High Wind Warning Statement, Snowfall prediction map and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Prediction Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator      
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Major Nor’easter Post Storm Report 12/26-12/27/10

Hello to all..

The following is a post storm report on the major nor’easter that affected the NWS Taunton County Warning Area on Sunday December 26th into Monday December 27th, 2010. This major nor’easter event followed a storm system that occurred on Monday December 20th, 2010 that caused a significant snowfall on Cape Cod and the Islands with a light to moderate snowfall in other parts of East Coastal Massachusetts. The December 20th storm system was not handled well by computer weather models and led to lower forecaster confidence as the major nor’easter of Sunday December 26th into Monday December 27th, 2010 became a significant threat. Computer weather models with the 12/26-12/7/10 storm performed markedly better in resolving the storm solution up to 6 days ahead of time despite briefly ‘losing’ the major storm solution in the 72-96 hour time range which has been a typical phenomenon over the past several years. Higher forecaster confidence within 48 hours of the event resulted in Winter Storm Watches for much of the NWS Taunton County Warning Area with Blizzard and Winter Storm Warnings issued for the region. Coastal Flood Watches were issued for East Coastal Massachusetts and were later upgraded to Coastal Flood Warnings. High Wind Warnings were issued over Cape Cod and the Islands where after a period of snow, the precipitation changed to rain. The most significant snow accumulations occurred near the Cape Cod Canal from West Barnstable to Sandwich Massachusetts.

WX1BOX, Amateur Radio SKYWARN Operations, commenced at Noon Sunday and were reduced to a self-activation mode by Noon Monday and completely secured by 5 PM Monday Afternoon. Eastern Massachusetts ARES was placed on stand-by for a similar timeframe. The major nor’easter produced a 10-18″ snowfall across portions of Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts away from the immediate coast. Amounts of 5-10″ were recorded over South and East Coastal Massachusetts and other parts of Rhode Island. Amounts of 6-12″ with isolated higher amounts were recorded across Northern Connecticut, Western and Central Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire though lower amounts of 3-6″ were observed in valley/shadowed locations. Amounts in northwest portions of the region were a bit lower than anticipated due to a dry slot that formed over portions of this area. This typically happens in intense nor’easters and are difficult to predict prior to the storm’s impact. East of Sandwich and Barnstable through Nantucket Island, snowfall of a coating to 2-3″ occurred in this area before the changeover to rain. The snow was very difficult to measure across the entire County Warning Area as this major nor’easter produced very strong winds. Even well inland, wind gusts of 45-60 MPH were recorded. Near the coast, wind gusts in the 55-70 MPH range occurred with isolated wind gusts to hurricane force recorded. N2NDY-Dale reported a 79 MPH measured wind gust in the Humarock section of Scituate, an 80 MPH measured wind gust was recorded in Wellfleet, Massachusetts and a 79 MPH measured wind gust was recorded in Orleans, Massachusetts. Another weather station in Scituate, Massachusetts on Humarock beach recorded a wind gust to 95 MPH coincident with the measured wind gust recorded at Dale’s location. That second station data in Scituate is currently under review. Many other wind gusts 58 MPH or greater (or severe wind criteria) were recorded. Moderate to major coastal flooding was recorded over much of East Coastal Massachusetts. Hardest hit were areas of Hull and Scituate along with portions of Gloucester and Rockport. Amateur Radio reports from the Gloucester EOC were given by Amateurs from the Cape Ann Amateur Radio Association (CAARA). KB1EKN-Mark Duff, who is also the Hingham Fire Chief, gave numerous reports out of the Scituate, Hull, Hingham area of coastal flooding. The vulnerable portions of Morissey Boulevard in Boston were also impacted by coastal flooding as well as portions of Lynn, Salem, Winthrop and Revere. Amateur Radio reports were forwarded from the 145.47-Danvers North Shore Amateur Radio Association (NSRA) Repeater, 145.23-Boston, 145.25-Norwell and 145.13-Gloucester Repeaters. Cape Cod ARES/SKYWARN held call-ups every hour relaying reports of wind damage, coastal flooding and changeover in precipitation. Nets were held on the 147.375-Falmouth and 146.955-Barnstable Repeaters.

The New England Echolink/IRLP (Internet Radio Linking Project) Reflector System (http://new-eng.com) *NEW-ENG* Echolink conference node: 9123/IRLP 9123 was also utilized during this major nor’easter. Liaisons from other SKYWARN Nets provided reports via this system as well as direct reports from Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters were also received via this system. SKYWARN Nets in Connecticut with Windham County and Hartford-Tolland County SKYWARN came up several times during the nor’easter to relay damage and snowfall reports through the efforts of Windham County SKYWARN Coordinator KB1DGY-Bernie Dubb and Hartford-Tolland County SKYWARN Coordinator Roger Jeanfaivre-K1PAI, Hartford-Tolland County SKYWARN. Eric Tuller-N1QKO, Western Massachusetts Assistant SKYWARN Coordinator and Ray Weber-KA1JJM, Western Massachusetts SKYWARN Coordinator provided reports from their area and relayed the Hartford-Tolland County Connecticut SKYWARN reports to WX1BOX due to high report volume on the impacts of the storm from all parts of the County Warning Area. Jim Blaine-WD4JZO relayed reports of damage and snowfall from Hillsborough County NH ARES/SKYWARN as well.

At the height of the storm, 55,000 were without power in the state of Massachusetts. This due to the damaging winds and in some cases damaging winds in combination with wet snowfall over the region. The coastal flooding was some of the worst seen over portions of the area in the past 15-20 years but was considered below the impacts of the ‘No-Name/Perfect Storm’ of 1991 and December 1992 storms that affected this region. Damage assessment work by the Red Cross is still ongoing over the coastal areas.

Massachusetts Emergency Management (MEMA)/Radio Amateur Civil Emergency Services (RACES) was active at the State Emergency Operations Center in Framingham Massachusetts, Region 1 Tewksbury, Region 2 Bridgewater, Region 3 Agawam offices with the Worcester city EOC active supporting the city and MEMA operations. A State of Emergency was declared in Massachusetts at approximately 1215 PM Sunday December 26th and was lifted on Tuesday December 28th. MEMA/RACES supported additional data and report gathering for use by MEMA in assessing the storm impact and for NWS Taunton to reassess and change their forecasts for the region as needed. The Region offices were active through Monday afternoon with the State EOC securing operations at 5 PM Monday December 27th. Massachusetts State RACES Radio Officer, Tom Kinahan, N1CPE, Region 1 RACES Radio Officer, Terry Stader-KA8SCP, Region 2 RACES Radio Officer, Bob Mims-WA1OEZ and Region 3 RACES Radio Officer, Steve Rodowicz-N1SR supported Amateur Radio Operations at these locations with several additional Amateur Radio Operators. N2YHK-John Ruggiero, WK1H-Gil Hayes and the Worcester Emergency Communications Team affiliated with Western Massachusetts ARES assured staffing at the Worcester city EOC for local city and state MEMA operations. In New Hampshire, their State EOC upgraded to a level-3 activation during the storm at approximately 630 PM Sunday December 26th as reported by Dave Colter-WA1ZCN, New Hampshire Assistant SEC for Operations and was then returned to a level-1 normal operations mode at 300 PM Monday December 27th as the predominant impact in New Hampshire was heavy snowfall and damage from wind was minimal resulting in only a few small power outages. In Connecticut, a level-2 stand-by of ARES occurred and the Connecticut ARES SEC Net was activated at 8 PM on the KB1AEV Connecticut Linked Repeater system. The Connecticut DEMHS Emergency Operations Center was staffed during the height of the major nor’easter and the Connecticut National Guard placed on stand-by as reported by Steve Williams-K1SJW-Connecticut State SKYWARN Coordinator.

The data gathered by Amateur Radio Operator SKYWARN Spotters and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters were utilized not just by NWS for their forecasts but by the American Red Cross and local/state/federal emergency management to assess the storm response and recover in near real-time. This is particularly helpful to create a high level of situational awareness and assists greatly in damage assessment done in the recovery phase of a storm scenario. The data availability was very useful and appreciated by all agencies.

Below is the pertinent NWS Taunton Local Storm Reports and Public Information Statements summarizing the major nor’easter impact on the region. The links to the data appear below:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report Summaries:
http://www.wx1box.org/local/lsr_12_27_10_2.txt
http://www.wx1box.org/local/lsr_12_27_10.txt

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement Storm Summaries:
http://www.wx1box.org/local/pns_blizzard_12_27_10.txt
http://www.wx1box.org/local/pns_blizzard_12_27_10_2.txt

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator     
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Blizzard Coordination Message #4 – FINAL 12/26-12/27/10 Major Nor’easter Event

Hello to all…

..Major Winter Storm/Blizzard to Pound Southern New England. All travel and preparations for this dangerous severe winter storm should be completed no later than 3 PM ET..
..A Blizzard Warning remains in effect from Noon Sunday through 6 PM Monday for Southern Worcester County Massachusetts, Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island except for Cape Cod and the Islands for 12-20″ of snow likely with isolated 24″ amounts possible in the northern and western parts of the Blizzard Warning area. Blizzard conditions with near zero visibility and strong winds sustained at 30-40 MPH with gusts up to 60 MPH and possibly even higher gusts possible in the Blizzard Warning area. Pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages will likely occur. It is noted that parts of the Southeast Massachusetts could see amounts closer to or a bit less than 12″ if enough mixing with sleet and rain occurs in this area and may not see blizzard conditions but they still could see a high impact due to damaging wind potential and heavy wet snow..
..A Winter Storm Warning is in effect from Noon Sunday through 6 PM Monday for 12-18″ of snow and considerable blowing and drifting snow with reduced visibilities for Northern Connecticut, Western and North Central Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire. Near Blizzard conditions with sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts up to 45 MPH possible with some higher elevation locations gusting as high as 50 MPH probable..
..The Winter Storm Watch for Cape Cod and the Islands is canceled. In this area, 1-4″ of snow will occur but the precipitation is now predominately expected to be rain which will hold down snowfall amounts significantly but strong to damaging winds are likely in this area..
..A High Wind Warning is in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and the potential for even higher wind gusts. This will result in pockets of tree and power line damage..
..A Coastal Flood Watch is in effect from Late Sunday Night to Monday Afternoon for East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and Nantucket Island. A widespread moderate coastal flood event is likely in this area with isolated pockets of major coastal flooding possible for the early Monday Morning high tide between 3-4 AM. A more minor coastal flood event is possible with the Monday afternoon high tide. The Coastal Flood Watch will likely be upgraded to a Coastal Flood Warning later today..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 3 PM Sunday Afternoon with Ops lasting through the overnight period well into the day on Monday Afternoon. ARES/RACES Groups should seek guidance from their local leadership on this potentially dangerous severe winter storm situation. Eastern Massachusetts ARES has been placed on stand-by for this situation starting at 5 PM Sunday Afternoon through Monday Evening. Massachusetts State EOC and Regional Offices are activating Sunday at 4 PM through Monday Afternoon at 4 PM..

Multi-model agreement and a high confidence forecast now for a major nor’easter winter storm/blizzard for much of Eastern Massachusetts north and west of the Cape Cod Canal, Rhode Island and Southern Worcester County Massachusetts. A Blizzard Warning remains in effect for this region from Sunday at Noon time through 6 PM Monday Evening. Total Snowfall of 15-20″ with isolated amounts of 24″ are likely in the Blizzard Warning area. In addition, damaging winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and isolated higher gusts are likely. The combination of snow and wind will create dangerous travel conditions of zero visibilities and the potential for tree and power line damage and power outages in this region.

It is noted that across portions of Bristol and Plymouth County that there is a chance of more mixing with sleet and rain but not until after a significant snowfall occurs. The snow could also be heavy and wet and combined with strong winds could result and tree and power line damage and power outages. The Blizzard Warning may be reduced to a Winter Storm Warning for parts or all of these counties but even with that reduction in the warning status, a significant impact from the storm is still likely.

A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for Southern New Hampshire, North-Central and Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut from Noon Sunday to 6 PM Monday. In this area, 12-18″ of snow is expected with sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts 45 MPH and gusts up to 50 MPH in the higher elevations. This will create a period of near-blizzard conditions in this region with the possibility of isolated pockets of tree and power line damage.

A High Wind Warning is in effect from Noon Sunday to 6 PM Monday for all of Cape Cod and the Islands and the Winter Storm Watch for Barnstable and Dukes Counties of Massachusetts as well as Block Island Rhode Island has been canceled. Snowfall in this area now only appears to be on the order of 1-4″ of snow with a changeover to rain. That said, the wind and coastal flood impacts in this area are of significant concern.Damaging Winds are likely in this area with a High Wind Warning in effect for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and even higher gusts possible. This will likely cause pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages.

A Coastal Flood Watch is in effect from late Sunday Night through Monday Afternoon for East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and Nantucket Island. The high tide cycle at 3-4 AM ET will be the most problematic high tide with the potential for widespread moderate to isolated pockets of severe coastal flooding across north and east facing beach exposures. This situation will need to be monitored very closely. An upgrade to a Coastal Flood Warning is likely for the Monday Morning high tide. For the Monday Afternoon high tide cycle, some coastal flooding is possible but due to a change in wind direction to an offshore wind, coastal flood impacts will be less during that high tide cycle.

This has the potential to be a significant multi-faceted and dangerous severe winter weather event. All SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators are urged to monitor local SKYWARN Frequencies, the Echolink/IRLP New Enlgand Reflector system and HF frequencies during this major winter storm/blizzard situation and provide reports per the SKYWARN reporting criteria while being safe doing so. Best practice precision in reporting will be helpful as this information will be utilized by NWS Taunton forecasters for updating their forecasts and by local, state, and federal emergency management to get a near real-time feel for the conditions and damage the major winter storm/blizzard is bringing to the region. The WX1BOX Twitter account and both of my email addresses that send to the SKYWARN list will be monitored throughout the entire event. Storm damage and pictures of the major winter storm snow event are welcome to be sent to both email addresses for dissemination of info to NWS, Media and Emergency Management officials. Credit will be given to the Amateur Operator or SKYWARN Spotter who provided the pictures.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence no later than 3 PM Sunday Afternoon. ARES/RACES groups should closely monitor the storm situation and seek advice from local/regional ARES/RACES leadership on the situation. This is the last coordination message as we now go into operations mode. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Storm Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Watch Statement, High Wind Warning Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and NWS Taunton Winter Storm Preparedness Public Information Statement:

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – Winter Storm Preparedness:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nous41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator       
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Blizzard Coordination Message #3 – 12/26/-12/27/10 Major Winter Storm/Blizzard Event

Hello to all…

..Major Winter Storm/Blizzard to Pound Southern New England. Tonight through Sunday Morning is the time to prepare for this major winter weather event. All travel and preparations for this dangerous severe winter storm should be completed no later than 4 or 5 PM ET..
..A Blizzard Warning is in effect from Noon Sunday through 6 PM Monday for Southern Worcester County Massachusetts, Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island except for Cape Cod and the Islands for 15-20″ of snow likely with isolated 24″ amounts possible. Blizzard conditions with near zero visibility and strong winds sustained at 30-40 MPH with gusts up to 60 MPH and possibly even higher gusts possible in the Blizzard Warning area. Pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages will likely occur..
..A Winter Storm Warning is in effect from Noon Sunday through 6 PM Monday for 12-18″ of snow and considerable blowing and drifting snow with reduced visibilities for Northern Connecticut, Western and North Central Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire. Near Blizzard conditions with sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts up to 45 MPH possible with some higher elevation locations gusting as high as 50 MPH probable..
..A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for Barnstable and Dukes Counties Massachusetts and Block Island Rhode Island from Sunday Afternoon through Monday Afternoon for the potential of 6″ or more of snow. In this area, the snowfall potential is not as certain as portions or all of this area could mix with or change to rain for a time holding down snow amounts and rain could be falling as the strongest winds approach this region..
..A High Wind Warning is in effect for Block Island and Nantucket Island for sustained winds 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and the potential for even higher wind gusts..
..A Coastal Flood Watch is in effect from Late Sunday Night to Monday Afternoon for East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and Nantucket Island. A widespread moderate coastal flood event is likely in this area with isolated pockets of major coastal flooding possible for the early Monday Morning high tide between 3-4 AM. A more minor coastal flood event is possible with the Monday afternoon high tide..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 3 PM Sunday Afternoon with Ops lasting through the overnight period well into the day on Monday Afternoon. ARES/RACES Groups should seek guidance from their local leadership on this potentially dangerous severe winter storm situation..

Multi-model agreement and a high confidence forecast now for a major nor’easter winter storm/blizzard for much of Eastern Massachusetts north and west of the Cape Cod Canal, Rhode Island and Southern Worcester County Massachusetts. A Blizzard Warning is in effect for this region from Sunday at Noon time through 6 PM Monday Evening. Total Snowfall of 15-20″ with isolated amounts of 24″ are likely in the Blizzard Warning area. In addition, damaging winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and isolated higher gusts are likely. The combination of snow and wind will create dangerous travel conditions of zero visibilities and the potential for tree and power line damage and power outages in this region.

A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for Southern New Hampshire, North-Central and Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut from Noon Sunday to 6 PM Monday. In this area, 12-18″ of snow is expected with sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts 45 MPH and gusts up to 50 MPH in the higher elevations. This will create a period of near-blizzard conditions in this region with the possibility of isolated pockets of tree and power line damage.

A High Wind Warning is in effect from Noon Sunday to 6 PM Monday for all of Cape Cod and the Islands and a Winter Storm Watch is in effect for Barnstable and Dukes Counties of Massachusetts as well as Block Island Rhode Island. Across the Winter Storm Watch area, there is a concern for rain mixing in with the snow in this region and the chances of 6″ or more of snow is lower in this area so a Winter Storm Watch is in effect to cover the winter storm threat. Damaging Winds are likely in this area with a High Wind Warning in effect for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH. This will likely cause pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages. Across Nantucket Island, a few inches of snow will occur before a changeover to rain along with the strong to damaging wind potential. A slightly further east track could result in warning snowfall amounts in the Winter Storm Watch area and potential for heavier snows on Nantucket Island.

A Coastal Flood Watch is in effect from late Sunday Night through Monday Afternoon for East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and Nantucket Island. The high tide cycle at 3-4 AM ET will be the most problematic high tide with the potential for widespread moderate to isolated pockets of severe coastal flooding across north and east facing beach exposures. This situation will need to be monitored very closely. For the Monday Afternoon high tide cycle, some coastal flooding is possible but due to a change in wind direction to an offshore wind, coastal flood impacts will be less during that high tide cycle.

This has the potential to be a significant multi-faceted and dangerous severe winter weather event. All SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators are urged to monitor local SKYWARN Frequencies, the Echolink/IRLP New Enlgand Reflector system and HF frequencies during this major winter storm/blizzard situation and provide reports per the SKYWARN reporting criteria while being safe doing so. Best practice precision in reporting will be helpful as this information will be utilized by NWS Taunton forecasters for updating their forecasts and by local, state, and federal emergency management to get a near real-time feel for the conditions and damage the major winter storm/blizzard is bringing to the region.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence no later than 3 PM Sunday Afternoon. ARES/RACES groups should closely monitor the storm situation and seek advice from local/regional ARES/RACES leadership on the situation. The next coordination message will be issued by Noon Sunday and will likely be the last message before going into operations mode. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Storm Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Watch Statement, High Wind Warning Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and NWS Taunton Winter Storm Preparedness Public Information Statement:

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – Winter Storm Preparedness:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nous41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator     
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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UPDATE – SKYWARN Recognition Day (SRD) 2010 Friday Evening December 3rd at 7 PM Through Saturday December 4th, 2010 at 7 PM

**UPDATE TO FIRST PARAGRAPH ON CANCELLATION OF SPECIAL EVENT STATION AT
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEATHER CONFERENCE. REMAINDER IS UNCHANGED**

The National Weather Service in Taunton Amateur Radio Station, WX1BOX,
will once again be active for SKYWARN Recognition Day 2010. In addition,
for the fourth straight year, the National Weather Service Gray, Maine
Office will also be active under call-sign, WX1GYX. The Boston Amateur
Radio Club will also be active as they have been over the past several
years at the NWS Blue Hill Observatory under call-sign W1BOS/MQE from
9 AM-3 PM Saturday December 4th, 2010. Due to equipment logistical issues at
the site of the Southern New England Weather Conference, the special
event station at the Southern New England Weather Conference, which will be
on  the same day as SRD, sponsored by the Worcester Emergency Communications
Team (WECT) will not be done at the site of the conference. Instead, WECT
will support SRD from their EOC in Worcester, Massachusetts.

This will be the 12th year of SKYWARN Recognition Day and its
anticipated that over 100 NWS Forecast Offices will be participating once
again this year. This event was featured on page 62 of the December 2010
Issue of QST Magazine and web links to information on SKYWARN Recognition Day
can be seen at the following links:

http://hamradio.noaa.gov
http://www.arrl.org/news/skywarn-recognition-day-set-for-december-4

The following is a schedule of repeaters that will be
utilized along with simplex being utilized during certain timeframes
on Saturday at WX1BOX. We hope Amateurs will utilize this schedule and try and
work WX1BOX during these various timeframes. If you don’t hear NWS,
feel free to call for WX1BOX and if the office is monitoring, a
response will be given. When you make contact, give your current
sky condition and temperature as required. Below is the tentative
schedule of operations:

Friday December 3rd, 2010:
7:00-7:30 PM:    146.970-Paxton Repeater (PL: 114.8 Hz)
7:30-8:00 PM:    147.180-Bridgewater Repeater (PL: 67.0 Hz)
8:00-8:30 PM:    145.490-Fairhaven Repeater (PL: 67.0 Hz)
8:30-9:00 PM:    146.955-Westford Repeater (PL: 74.4 Hz)
9:00-9:30 PM:    146.79-Vernon, CT Repeater (PL: 82.5 Hz) (linked via IRLP.)
9:30-10:00 PM:   147.225-Killingly, CT Repeater (PL: 156.7 Hz)
10:00-10:30 PM:  146.760-Scituate, RI or 145.370-Coventry RI Repeater PL: 67.0 Hz
10:30-11:00 PM:  145.470-Danvers Repeater (PL: 136.5 Hz)
11:00-11:30 PM:  146.955-Barnstable PL: 88.5 or 147.375-Falmouth Repeater PL: 110.9
11:30 PM-12:00 AM: 146.640-Waltham Repeater

**Will Attempt to monitor both the New England Network and the
*WX-TALK*/IRLP Reflector 9219 systems during this entire timeframe.

**It is possible we may switch off to different repeaters or simplex
during time slots if we run out of contacts.

Saturday December 4th, 2010:
7:00-8:30 AM:   146.595 Simplex
8:30-9:00 AM:   Litchfield County Linked System via KB1AEV repeater system
9:00-9:30 AM:   145.230-Boston Repeater (PL: 88.5 Hz)
9:30-10:00 AM:  146.640-Waltham Repeater
10:00-10:30 AM: 146.895-Walpole Repeater (PL: 123.0 Hz)
10:30-11:00 AM: 147.225-Killingly, CT Repeater (PL: 156.7 Hz)
11:00-11:30 AM: 145.470-Danvers Repeater (PL: 136.5 Hz)
11:30 AM-Noon:  146.79-Vernon, CT Repeater (Linked via IRLP.)
Noon-1:00 PM:   146.595 Simplex
1:00-1:30 PM: 146.685-Plymouth Repeater (PL: 82.5 Hz)
1:30-2:00 PM: 145.130-Gloucester Repeater (PL: 107.2 Hz)
2:00-2:30 PM:   146.955-Barnstable (PL: 88.5) or 147.375-Falmouth Repeater (PL: 110.9)
2:30-3:00 PM:   146.955-Westford Repeater (PL: 74.4)
3:00-3:30 PM:   146.970-Paxton Repeater (PL: 114.8)
3:30-4:00 PM:   147.165-Exeter, RI Repeater (PL: 67.0)
4:00-4:30 PM:   146.760-Scituate, RI or 145.37-Coventry, RI Repeater (PL: 67.0)
4:30-5:00 PM:   145.490-Fairhaven Repeater (PL: 67.0)
5:00-5:30 PM:   147.180-Bridgewater Repeater (PL: 67.0)
5:30-6:00 PM:   449.375-Pack Monadnock, NH Repeater (PL: 88.5 Hz)
6:00-6:30 PM:   146.895-Walpole Repeater (PL: 123.0)
6:30-7:00 PM:   147.000-Dartmouth Repeater (PL: 67.0)

**Will Attempt to monitor both the New England Network and the
*WX-TALK*/IRLP Reflector 9219 systems during this entire timeframe.

**It is possible we may switch off to different repeaters or simplex
during time slots if we run out of contacts.

The following is information EchoLink/IRLP operations during SKYWARN
Recognition Day. Further updates to follow as we get closer to the
event:

Time in UTC NWS Office Call-Sign
0000-0100: WX0GLD (Confirmed to Keep Time Slot)
0100-0200: WX1GYX (Confirmed to Keep Time Slot)
0200-0300: WX4MLB (Confirmed to Keep Time Slot)
0300-0400: W0ABR  (Confirmed to Keep Time Slot)
0400-0500: WX1BOX (Confirmed to keep the time slot but can swap if needed) 
0500-0600: WX9GRB (Confirmed to Keep Time Slot)
0600-0700: WX4HUN (Confirmed to Keep Time Slot)
0700-0800: N0NWS  (Confirmed to Keep Time Slot)
0800-0900: KL7FWX (New NWS Office in Fairbanks Alaska. Will Show Up on Echolink as KL2GS)
0900-1000: KL7FWX (New NWS Office in Fairbanks Alaska. Will Show Up on Echolink as KL2GS)
1000-1100: KL7FWX (New NWS Office in Fairbanks Alaska. Will Show Up on Echolink as KL2GS)
1100-1200: WX7PHX (Confirmed to Keep Time Slot)
1200-1300: W7NWS  (Confirmed to Keep Time Slot)
1300-1400: KL7FWX (New NWS Office in Fairbanks Alaska. Will Show Up on Echolink as KL2GS) 
1400-1500: WX4HUN (Confirmed to Keep Time Slot)
1500-1600: WX1BOX (Confirmed to keep the time slot but can swap if needed)
1600-1800: WX4NC  (Confirmed to keep the time slot, 2 hour time slot and time slot is from last year)
1800-1900: WX6MTR (Confirmed to Keep Time Slot)
1900-2000: K0MPX  (Confirmed to Keep Time Slot)
2000-2100: WX4MLB (Confirmed to keep Time Slot)
2100-2300: WX4NHC (Confirmed to keep Time Slot)
2300-2400: Open

There will be other conference systems utilized for SKYWARN Recognition Day.
They are as follows:

The New England Reflector Gateway System will be utilized by the NWS Taunton, Mass.
and NWS Gray, Maine offices from 0000-0500 UTC and 1200-2400 UTC. The New
England Gateway system is on EchoLink Conference server *NEW-ENG* Node:
9123, IRLP reflector 9123. If other NWS offices would like to join the
system, they are welcome to do so and participants in SKYWARN Recognition
Day can also use that system to make contact with various NWS offices.

Also, the Western Reflector will be having NWS offices calling CQ as in
past years on reflector 9250 and have its gateway system on
IRLP 9258/EchoLink Conference *NV-GATE* Node: 125266 open for NWS offices.
Please contact Kent-W7AOR for additional information on the Western
Reflector.

A few technical reminders for folks interested in making contacts with the
NWS Forecast Offices on the *WX-TALK* Node: 7203/IRLP 9219 and New England
Reflector Gateway IRLP 9123/*NEW-ENG* Echolink Node: 9123 systems:

-The system allows both EchoLink and IRLP connections. For EchoLink users,
you connect to the *WX-TALK* Node: 7203 conference system. For IRLP users,
you would connect to IRLP reflector 9219.

-If you are using EchoLink, the RF node or PC that you’re using must have
EchoLink conferencing disabled. If it is not disabled, the system will
automatically kick the node or PC off of the system.

The reason this occurs is to prevent unintentional interference from a
conferencing station that may not know the node is connected somewhere else.
This will keep traffic moving on the net and reduce interference
considerably.

For more information on VoIP Technical Configuration Tips, please go to our
web site at http://www.voipwx.net where we have a link to that information
on the main menu of the web site. This announcement will also be on the web
site.

We are looking forward to another fun SKYWARN Recognition Day on the
*WX-TALK* Node: 7203/IRLP reflector 9219 system, New England Reflector
Gateway system and Western Reflector system. Thanks to all for there
support!

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator     
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

Read more

Happy Thanksgiving to all SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators – SKYWARN Newsletter #267 Now Available

On behalf of the coordinating team of Amateur Radio Station, WX1BOX, and the NWS Taunton forecast staff. A Happy Thanksgiving to all of you and your families. NWS Taunton appreciates the support of all SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators who put forth their efforts in a large way once again in 2010. Best wishes for a great day with friends and family!

SKYWARN Newsletter #267 is now available on the web site under the SKYWARN Newsletter archive and via the following direct link: http://www.wx1box.org/files/news267.htm

Read more

Hurricane Earl Post Storm Report and Analysis Including Link to Eastern Region Communications Test Results

Hello to all…

The following is the post storm report and analysis on Hurricane Earl and his impact to the Caribbean Islands, North Carolina, Southeast New England and the Canadian Maritimes. Hurricane Earl was the second major hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic Season with the first being Danielle and Danielle was a system that only affected shipping interests out at sea.

Earl passed through the Northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday August 31st, 2010. The storm’s worst effects were over St. Kitts, St. Maarten, the British Virgin Islands, and Anguilla where an 88 MPH measured wind gust occurred before the wind instrument malfunctioned. Earl downed numerous trees and power lines with some minor structural damage noted. Rainfall of 7-9″ was common over this area and into Antigua where a 45 MPH measured gust was noted by an Amateur Operator on the island. Cars stuck in flood waters from the rain were reported along with storm surge issues on vulnerable portions of the islands. A 60 knot measured wind gust was recorded on the US Virgin Islands as well. Amateur Radio Operators and the stormcarib.com storm blogging network were critical in obtaining reports from this area.

Earl would traverse the open Atlantic Ocean waters northeast of the Bahamas before coming within 125 miles of the mid-atlantic coast of Eastern North Carolina where hurricane warnings were issued for Eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks with tropical storm watches and warnings north and south of portions of Eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks of North Carolina. During this timeframe, Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings would be issued over the course of Wednesday and Thursday for portions of New England. Earl was a dangerous Categrory IV hurricane at the time. The forecast was only for slow weakening and the storm to pass within 50-100 miles southeast of Nantucket Island and as a strong Category II to Category III hurricane. Given a system of that magnitude, it was expected that the system would stay fairly symmetrical and while Southern New England would be on the side of the storm with weaker winds, high sustained tropical storm force winds with hurricane force wind gusts were expected particularly in the area of the hurricane warning from Plymouth to Westport Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands. Areas west and north of this region were expected to see tropical storm force winds in gusts and possibly low-end sustained tropical storm force winds.

As Earl approached North Carolina, Measured sustained winds to high-end tropical storm force with hurricane force wind gusts were recorded with storm surge in the 2-5 foot range. Rainfall was largely under 1″ except in the outer banks of North Carolina where 3.5-4.5″ rainfall amounts occurred. Earl’s eye would never make landfall in the outer banks of North Carolina and would stay offshore within 125 miles of the Outer Banks. Over the course of this time, Earl weakened considerably going from a Category-IV hurricane on Thursday Morning to a Category-I hurricane by Friday Morning due to southwest shear and dry air intrusion into the system. This was expected on Wednesday but instead the system intensified which raised concerns that Earl would affect the region as a stronger system but on Thursday these factors finally took their toll on Earl. Due to the rapid weakening, this made the storm that much more asymmetric and a much weaker system as it affected Southeast New England Friday Afternoon and particularly Friday Night and this meant the heavy rain would be along and west of the center with most of the wind along and east of the center of Earl with weaker winds to the west of the center. It is noted that non-tropical models had a better handle on the weakening wind field on the west side of the system and the asymmetry of the system. Also, while the system was moving at about 20 MPH, this is not the noted acceleration of historic New England hurricanes of the 1930s-1950s or even Hurricane Bob in 1991 and Hurricane Gloria in 1995 which moved at rates between 30 and 60 MPH. This meant more weakening due to cooler water temperatures despite those water tempratures being warmer than normal and the shear and dry air over the system also had significant impacts on Earl. Earl would weaken to a tropical storm as it made its closest approach to Southeast New England resulting in hurricane warnings being changed to tropical storm warnings over Cape Cod and the Islands late Friday Evening after the Hurricane Warnings were changed to Tropical Storm Warnings over the Hull to Plymouth area and from Woods Hole to Westport, Massachusetts late Friday Morning.

When Earl approached, winds only reached low-end tropical storm force criteria on Nantucket Island with tropical storm force winds in gusts over South Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod. Measured wind gusts of 42 MPH were recorded on West Island Fairhaven, 41 MPH on Marstons Mills section Barnstable, Massachusetts, 44 MPH measured gust on Marthas Vineyard and 41 MPH measured gust in the Siasconsett portion of Nantucket Island. Storm surge from swells closed some shore roads in Newport, RI, Dennis, Mass. and threatened some homes with flooded beach areas in the Madaket section of Nantucket Island. A couple of isolated 50 Knot gusts were seen at the elevated platform at Horseshoe Shoals Nantucket Island and at the Kalmas weather station in Barnstable, Mass. via weatherflow with a 54 MPH gust measured at Nantucket Airport along with a sustained wind of 41 MPH. The winds downed isolated trees and caused isolated power outages in Chatham, Dennis, and on the Bourne/Falmouth line.

The bigger story was heavy rainfall with 2-4″ with isolated 6″ amounts occurring from West Island Fairhaven through Barnstable County, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket Islands. This resulted in urban flooding over portions of Cape Cod shutting down a few roads and intersections. The combination of storm surge and rainfall causing minor street flooding issues on Nantucket Island. Several flooded basements were reported on Martha’s Vineyard Island in Edgartown and portions of Cape Cod. Rainfall in the Greater New Bedford area west of Fairhaven through South Coastal Rhode Island and up through Taunton were between 1-2″ of rain with amounts 1″ or less over the remainder of Eastern Massachusetts, North-Central Rhode Island, Central Massachusetts and Northeast Connecticut. The storm departed Southeast New England by 5 AM where all tropical warnings were lowered for the area. Amateur Radio SKYWARN Nets were instrumental in gathering many of these reports with non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters calling in their rainfall reports in on Saturday Morning. Amateur Radio Nets were active on the 146.955-Barnstable, 145.49-Fairhaven Repeaters with the New England Reflector IRLP/Echolink system active and lined with the *WX_TALK* Echolink Conference Node: 7203/IRLP 9219 system for the VoIP Hurricane Net. HF was active on 3943 KHz LSB with the Hurricane Watch Net active on 14.325 MHz. Other repeaters and frequencies in the region were on stand-by for Earl.

The storm would approach Nova Scotia Canada on Saturday Morning. Earl would deviate slightly from his track and the center would come closer to the heavily populated Halifax Nova Scotia Canada area. The right side of Earl’s circulation with the strongest wind fields would affect the Greater Halifax area and much of Nova Scotia into the Prince Edward Islands. Weather stations in the area reported high-end tropical storm force sustained winds with frequent hurricane force wind gusts. This resulted in widespread tree and power line damage in the Greater Halifax Nova Scotia Canada with some minor structural damage noted to roofs of homes either from fallen trees and spotty direct roof damage from the winds. Contact was made with VE1JBL-Jim Langille, Radio Amateurs of Canada Maritime Section Manager using Amateur Radio Internet linking technology and Jim was at the Halifax Emergency Operations Center reporting on the severe damage done by Earl. The Canadian Hurricane Centre and National Hurricane Center were at odds as to whether the system made landfall as a Category-1 hurricane or a high-end tropical storm. It is noted that the difference in intensity between the two characterizations, however, is minimal. During the height of the storm, 216,000 people were without power. Outages were down to 70,000 by Sunday Morning and at the writing of this report were dropped to just 3,400 people. Earl would become extratropical over Newfoundland and Labrador Canada late Saturday Evening.

While Earl spared Southern New England severe conditions, this offered up a very good exercise to practice and put into place emergency response plans should a severe hurricane strike on the region. Many good things came out of practicing and executing preparedness plans. Where we still have another 4-5 weeks for New England to potentially be stricken by a tropical system, it was good to have an oppportunity to practice beyond an exericse with a real threat from a system like Earl despite its rapid weakening in the 24-36 hours prior to his arrival to our region. We hope all people will prepare the same way next time as limits in the science particularly with the intensity of these systems are still an area of research for tropical systems regardless of whether they are in the tropics or at higher latitudes. Combine the fact that Earl tracked through the higher latitudes and it wasn’t clear when the acceleration of the system would commence caused the prediction of the intensity of Earl to become that much more problematic. The track guidance between Nantucket Island and the 40 North/70 West benchmark went as expected.

Part of the preparedness steps included the Amateur Radio HF Eastern Region Communications Test which received extremely strong participation with over 50 Amateurs checking into the test and thoroughly impressed Tim Rutkowski-KB4FNQ, the Amateur Operator for the Eletronic Systems Division who requested this test be completed. Below is a link to the Communications test results where the signal report listed by each station was the signal of how they heard Eastern Region Headquarters and Tim Rutkowski-KB4FNQ’s comments:

http://www.wx1box.org/files/erh_comms_test_results.txt

I really appreciated the contacts, yesterday.  It was the first time the
station at ERH was tested in an operational mode.  I never expected the
amount of cooperation that was received from your group. The three
stations that I received the best are: KA1IOR, K1CCT and W1RV. I will be
looking into other options to improve system performance.  Again, thanks
for all your help.

Tim Rutkowski, ER EPM

A huge thank you to all SKYWARN Spotters, Amateur Radio Operators and Emergency Management personnel for their response to Hurricane Earl and the threat posed to the region. Below are some reference links and supporting information for this report including the NWS Taunton Local Storm Reports, NWS Taunton Public Information Statement on ranfall and Hurricane Earl Post Tropical Cyclone report:

StormCarib:
http://stormcarib.com/

Amateur Radio VoIP Hurricane Net Report Viewer:
http://report.voipwx.net/qilan/nhcwx/list_VOIP_records?auth=OK

NWS Newport, North Carliona Storm Summary Information:
http://www.wx1box.org/files/nws_moorehead_city_pns.txt

Eastern Massachusetts ARES Stand-By Activation Statement:
http://ares.ema.arrl.org/node/530

Eastern Massachusetts ARES Stand-by Activation Cancellation Statement:
http://ares.ema.arrl.org/node/531

Eastern Massachusetts ARES Situation Report to ARRL Headquarters:
http://www.arrl.org/news/massachusetts-ares-prepares-as-a-now-weakened-hurricane-earl-approaches

Nova Scotia Emergency Management Situation Report Archive:
http://gov.ns.ca/news/details.asp?id=20100905001

Nova Scotia Power Company Storm Updates:
http://www.nspower.ca/en/stormupdates.aspx

Canadian Hurricane Centre Hurricane Information Statement Links Archive (Statements on 9/4/10 at 11:59, 1457, 1803, 2055 list reports of damage and wind speed information):
http://www.ns.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/bulletins_e.html

000
NWUS51 KBOX 041624
LSRBOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT…SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1223 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010

..TIME…   …EVENT…      …CITY LOCATION…     …LAT.LON…
..DATE…   ….MAG….      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. …SOURCE….
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     STORM SURGE      NEWPORT                 41.49N 71.32W
09/03/2010  E0.00 FT         NEWPORT            RI   AMATEUR RADIO

            OCEAN DRIVE FROM FORT ADAMS TO BAILY BEACH CLOSED WITH
            SEAWATER AND DEBRIS FROM THE SEAWALL OVER THE ROAD.

0405 PM     STORM SURGE      NANTUCKET               41.27N 70.10W
09/03/2010  E0.00 FT         NANTUCKET          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            MADAKET BEACH UNDERWATER…SEAWATER INUNDATING LONG POND.

0730 PM     TROPICAL STORM   ORLEANS                 41.79N 70.00W
09/03/2010                   BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING ROUTE 6 FROM EXIT 12 TO THE ROTARY.

1010 PM     TROPICAL STORM   HARWICH                 41.69N 70.07W
09/03/2010                   BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 28 NEAR EVELYNS WAY…PARTIALLY
            BLOCKING ROUTE 28.

1148 PM     TROPICAL STORM   CHATHAM                 41.68N 69.96W
09/03/2010                   BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING TRAINING FIELD ROAD.

1157 PM     FLOOD            CHATHAM                 41.68N 69.96W
09/03/2010                   BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TEN INCHES OF WATER FLOODED ORLEANS ROAD.

1234 AM     FLOOD            HARWICH                 41.69N 70.07W
09/04/2010                   BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            A FOOT OF WATER INUNDATED THE INTERSECTION OF ROUTE 137
            AND PLEASANT BAY ROAD.

0100 AM     TROPICAL STORM   BOURNE                  41.73N 70.61W
09/04/2010                   BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 28A ON THE BOURNE/FALMOUTH TOWN LINE.

0138 AM     TROPICAL STORM   5 SSE BARNSTABLE        41.63N 70.28W
09/04/2010                   BARNSTABLE         MA   MESONET

            MESONET AT KALMUS MASS RECORDED WIND GUSTS TO 58 MPH.

0210 AM     TROPICAL STORM   13 NNW NANTUCKET        41.44N 70.19W
09/04/2010                   ANZ232             MA   BUOY

            ACK SOUND BUOY 44020 RECORDED SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH.

0225 AM     TROPICAL STORM   NANTUCKET               41.27N 70.10W
09/04/2010                   NANTUCKET          MA   ASOS

            ACK ASOS RECORDED SUSTAINED WIND OF 41 MPH.

0321 AM     TROPICAL STORM   13 S HYANNIS            41.47N 70.31W
09/04/2010                   ANZ232             MA   MESONET

            HORSESHOE SHOALS CAPE WIND TOWER IN ACK SOUND RECORDED A
            WIND GUST OF 60 MPH.

&&

$$

KAB

000
NWUS51 KBOX 040756
LSRBOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT…SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
355 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010

..TIME…   …EVENT…      …CITY LOCATION…     …LAT.LON…
..DATE…   ….MAG….      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. …SOURCE….
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     STORM SURGE      NANTUCKET               41.27N 70.10W
09/03/2010  E0.00 FT         NANTUCKET          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            MADAKET BEACH UNDERWATER…SEAWATER INUNDATING LONG POND.

0730 PM     TROPICAL STORM   ORLEANS                 41.79N 70.00W
09/03/2010                   BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING ROUTE 6 FROM EXIT 12 TO THE ROTARY.

1010 PM     TROPICAL STORM   HARWICH                 41.69N 70.07W
09/03/2010                   BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 28 NEAR EVELYNS WAY…PARTIALLY
            BLOCKING ROUTE 28.

1148 PM     TROPICAL STORM   CHATHAM                 41.68N 69.96W
09/03/2010                   BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING TRAINING FIELD ROAD.

1157 PM     FLOOD            CHATHAM                 41.68N 69.96W
09/03/2010                   BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TEN INCHES OF WATER FLOODED ORLEANS ROAD.

1234 AM     FLOOD            HARWICH                 41.69N 70.07W
09/04/2010                   BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            A FOOT OF WATER INUNDATED THE INTERSECTION OF ROUTE 137
            AND PLEASANT BAY ROAD.

0100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       YARMOUTH                41.71N 70.23W
09/04/2010  E3.74 INCH       BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO

0100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       EASTHAM                 41.83N 69.97W
09/04/2010  E2.01 INCH       BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO

0100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       HARWICH                 41.69N 70.07W
09/04/2010  E2.58 INCH       BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO

0100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       FALMOUTH                41.55N 70.61W
09/04/2010  E2.30 INCH       BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO

0100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WEST TISBURY            41.38N 70.68W
09/04/2010  E2.91 INCH       DUKES              MA   AMATEUR RADIO

0100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BARNSTABLE              41.70N 70.30W
09/04/2010  E2.27 INCH       BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            MARSTON MILLS.

0100 AM     TROPICAL STORM   BOURNE                  41.73N 70.61W
09/04/2010                   BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 28A ON THE BOURNE/FALMOUTH TOWN LINE.

0100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       NANTUCKET               41.27N 70.10W
09/04/2010  E2.18 INCH       NANTUCKET          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

0138 AM     TROPICAL STORM   5 SSE BARNSTABLE        41.63N 70.28W
09/04/2010                   BARNSTABLE         MA   MESONET

            MESONET AT KALMUS MASS RECORDED WIND GUSTS TO 58 MPH.

0321 AM     TROPICAL STORM   13 S HYANNIS            41.47N 70.31W
09/04/2010                   ANZ232             MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            HORSESHOE SHOALS RECORDED A WIND GUST OF 60 MPH.

&&

$$

RLG

000
NOUS41 KBOX 041828
PNSBOX
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-050621-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
225 PM EDT SAT SEP 4 2010

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS FROM HURRICANE EARL THAT AFFECTED OUR REGION.

APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS…COOPERATIVE
OBSERVERS…SKYWARN SPOTTERS…COCORAHS OBSERVERS AND MEDIA FOR
THESE REPORTS.  THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT
WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

********************STORM TOTAL RAINFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL    TIME/DATE    COMMENTS
                     RAINFALL       OF
                     (INCHES)   MEASUREMENT

MASSACHUSETTS

…BARNSTABLE COUNTY…
   CENTERVILLE           5.44   630 AM   9/4   WQRC – MEDIA
   CENTERVILLE           5.35   132 PM   9/4   SPOTTER
   S. YARMOUTH           5.17   700 AM   9/4   COCORAHS
   YARMOUTH              5.07   332 AM   9/4   HAM RADIO
   WELLFLEET             5.06   630 AM   9/4   WQRC – MEDIA
   OSTERVILLE            4.75   630 AM   9/4   WQRC – MEDIA
   HYANNIS               4.47   700 AM   9/4   ASOS
   EAST FALMOUTH         4.20   747 AM   9/4   SPOTTER
   WEST HARWICH          4.13   805 AM   9/4   SPOTTER
   BREWSTER              4.10   900 AM   9/4   SPOTTER
   WELLFLEET             4.05   640 AM   9/4   SPOTTER
   WEST BARNSTABLE       4.00   630 AM   9/4   WQRC – MEDIA
   CHATHAM               3.51   700 AM   9/4   ASOS
   ORLEANS               3.50   630 AM   9/4   WQRC – MEDIA
   EAST HARWICH          3.40   336 AM   9/4   HAM RADIO
   CHATHAM               3.35   717 AM   9/4   NWS COOP
   EASTHAM               3.19   329 AM   9/4   HAM RADIO
   FALMOUTH              3.18   700 AM   9/4   COCORAHS
   EAST SANDWICH         2.90   700 AM   9/4   NWS COOP
   EAST FALMOUTH         2.77   337 AM   9/4   HAM RADIO
   WOODS HOLE            2.76   600 AM   9/4   NWS COOP

…BRISTOL COUNTY…
   FAIRHAVEN             2.44   339 AM   9/4   HAM RADIO

…DUKES COUNTY…
   EDGARTOWN             6.21   730 AM   9/4   NWS COOP
   VINEYARD HAVEN        4.30   700 AM   9/4   MVY ASOS
   VINEYARD HAVEN        3.95   700 AM   9/4   COCORAHS
   WEST TISBURY          3.45   337 AM   9/4   HAM RADIO

…NANTUCKET COUNTY…
   NANTUCKET             2.73   338 AM   9/4   HAM RADIO
   NANTUCKET             2.29   700 AM   9/4   ASOS

…PLYMOUTH COUNTY…
   DUXBURY               2.24   630 AM   9/4   SPOTTER
   PLYMOUTH              2.16   331 AM   9/4   HAM RADIO
   DUXBURY               2.15   330 AM   9/4   HAM RADIO

********************SUSTAINED WIND SPEED ********************

LOCATION SUSTAINED WIND SPEED    TIME/DATE    COMMENTS
                                    OF
                        (MPH)   MEASUREMENT

MASSACHUSETTS

…BARNSTABLE COUNTY…
   HYANNIS                 31   135 AM   9/4   ASOS

…NANTUCKET COUNTY…
   NANTUCKET               41   225 AM   9/4   ASOS
   NANTUCKET               31  1104 PM   9/3   ASOS

…NANTUCKET SOUND…
   HORSESHOE SHOALS        48   251 AM   9/4   CAPE WIND
   BUOY 44020              40   210 AM   9/4   NDBC
   NANTUCKET HARBOR        31   218 AM   9/4   NOS NTKM3

***********************PEAK WIND GUST***********************

LOCATION            PEAK WIND    TIME/DATE    COMMENTS
                         GUST       OF
                        (MPH)   MEASUREMENT

MASSACHUSETTS

…BARNSTABLE COUNTY…
   HYANNIS                 58   138 AM   9/4   KALMUS MESONET
   HYANNIS                 47   129 AM   9/4   ASOS

…NANTUCKET COUNTY…
   NANTUCKET               54   223 AM   9/4   ASOS

…NANTUCKET SOUND…
   HORSESHOE SHOALS        60   321 AM   9/4   CAPE WIND
   BUOY 44020              52   250 AM   9/4   NDBC

$$

KAB

287
ACUS71 KBOX 042032 CCA
PSHBOX

POST TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORT…HURRICANE EARL…COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
430 PM EDT SAT SEP 4 2010

NOTE: THE DATA SHOWN HERE ARE PRELIMINARY….AND SUBJECT TO UPDATES
AND CORRECTIONS AS APPROPRIATE.

THIS REPORT INCLUDES EVENTS OCCURRING WHEN WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS
WERE IN EFFECT FOR EARL.

COUNTIES INCLUDED…BARNSTABLE…NANTUCKET…DUKES…PLYMOUTH…
NEWPORT

A. LOWEST SEA LEVEL PRESSURE/MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AND PEAK GUSTS
———————————————————————
METAR OBSERVATIONS…
NOTE: ANEMOMETER HEIGHT IS 10 METERS AND WIND AVERAGING IS 2 MINUTES
———————————————————————
LOCATION  ID    MIN    DATE/     MAX      DATE/     PEAK    DATE/
LAT  LON        PRES   TIME      SUST     TIME      GUST    TIME
DEG DECIMAL     (MB)   (UTC)     (KT)     (UTC)     (KT)    (UTC)
———————————————————————
KHYA – HYANNIS MA                                                  
41.67 -70.28                    010/027  04/0535   360/041 04/0529 

KACK – NANTUCKET MA                                                
41.25 -70.06                    330/036  04/0625   330/047 04/0623 

KMVY – WEST TISBURY MA                                             
41.39 -70.61                    040/029  04/0135   030/038 04/0134 

KPVC – PROVINCETOWN MA                                             
42.07 -70.22     29.2 04/0635 I 020/024  04/0655 I 030/035 04/0555 I

REMARKS:

NON-METAR OBSERVATIONS…
NOTE: ANEMOMETER HEIGHT IN METERS AND WIND AVERAGING PERIOD IN
MINUTES INDICATED UNDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND IF KNOWN
———————————————————————
LOCATION  ID    MIN    DATE/     MAX      DATE/     PEAK    DATE/
LAT  LON        PRES   TIME      SUST     TIME      GUST    TIME
DEG DECIMAL     (MB)   (UTC)     (KT)     (UTC)     (KT)    (UTC)
———————————————————————
HYANNIS                                                           
41.63 -70.28     29.1 04/0641   003/033  04/0538 I 003/050 04/0538 
                                     
REMARKS: KALMUS MESONET SITE.

 

B. MARINE OBSERVATIONS…
NOTE: ANEMOMETER HEIGHT IN METERS AND WIND AVERAGING PERIOD IN
MINUTES INDICATED UNDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND IF KNOWN
———————————————————————
LOCATION  ID    MIN    DATE/     MAX      DATE/     PEAK    DATE/
LAT  LON        PRES   TIME      SUST     TIME      GUST    TIME
DEG DECIMAL     (MB)   (UTC)     (KT)     (UTC)     (KT)    (UTC)
———————————————————————
NTKM3 – NANTUCKET HARBOR                                           
41.29  -70.10    29.2 04/0712   340/027  04/0618   350/039 04/0630 
                                   8.5
 
44020 – NANTUCKET SOUND                                            
41.44  -70.19    29.2 04/0750 I 347/035  04/0610   350/045 04/0602 
                                   5
 
44018 – BUOY 30NM E OF NANTUCKET MA                                
41.26  -69.31    28.9 04/0550   293/031  04/0920   290/039 04/0934 
                                   5
 
44008 – BUOY 54NM SE OF NANTUCKET MA                               
40.50  -69.25    28.7 04/0450   284/040  04/0810   290/052 04/0802 
                                   5
 
44024 – NORTHEAST CHANNEL GOMOOS                                   
42.31  -65.93    28.6 04/1104 I 150/043  04/1004   150/054 04/1004 
                                   4
 
HORSESHOE SHOAL – CAPE WIND                                        
41.47  -70.31    29.2 04/0432   333/042  04/0651   334/052 04/0721 
                                   20
 
REMARKS:

C. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM 1100 UTC SEP 03 UNTIL 1100 UTC SEP 04
———————————————————————
CITY/TOWN                    COUNTY               ID         RAINFALL
LAT LON                                                       (IN)  
DEG DECIMAL
———————————————————————
EDGARTOWN                    DUKES                             6.21 
41.38  -70.52

2 SSE YARMOUTH               BARNSTABLE                        5.17 
41.68  -70.20

WELLFLEET                    BARNSTABLE                        5.06 
41.93  -70.03

HYANNIS                      BARNSTABLE          KHYA          4.47 
41.67  -70.28

1 ESE VINEYARD HAVEN         DUKES                             3.95 
41.45  -70.61

CHATHAM                      BARNSTABLE          KCQX          3.51 
41.69  -69.99

ORLEANS                      BARNSTABLE                        3.50 
41.79  -70.00

1 S CHATHAM                  BARNSTABLE                        3.35 
41.66  -69.96

3 NNW FALMOUTH               BARNSTABLE                        3.18 
41.59  -70.63

3 SSE SANDWICH               BARNSTABLE                        2.90 
41.71  -70.47

3 WSW FALMOUTH               BARNSTABLE                        2.76 
41.53  -70.66

FAIRHAVEN                    BRISTOL                           2.44 
41.65  -70.82

NANTUCKET                    NANTUCKET           KACK          2.29 
41.25  -70.06

DUXBURY                      PLYMOUTH                          2.24 
42.04  -70.67

DUXBURY                      PLYMOUTH                          2.24 
42.04  -70.67

REMARKS: RAINFALL REPORTS TAKEN FROM NWS CO-OP REPORTS…ASOS…
SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND COCORAHS OBSERVATIONS. LIST IS REPRESENTATIVE
BY COUNTY… BUT NOT EXHAUSTIVE. OTHER RAINFALL OBSERVATIONS WERE
RECEIVED.

 

D. INLAND FLOODING…
———————————————————————
BARNSTABLE…ORLEANS ROAD WAS REPORTED FLOODED IN CHATHAM. ROUTE 137
IN HARWICH WAS ALSO INUNDATED AT PLEASANT BAY ROAD.

———————————————————————

E. MAXIMUM STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE…
OFFICIAL TIDE GAUGES NOTED WITH LEADING G
———————————————————————

COUNTY           CITY/TOWN        SURGE   TIDE   DATE/   BEACH      
                 OR LOCATION      (FT)    (FT)   TIME    EROSION    
———————————————————————
BARNSTABLE     G CHATHAM           2.05   2.83  04/0748  UNKNOWN  

NANTUCKET      G NANTUCKET         2.21   2.50  04/0636  UNKNOWN  

BARNSTABLE     G WOODS HOLE        1.57   2.12  04/0536  UNKNOWN  

BRISTOL        G FALL RIVER        1.55   2.49  04/0200  UNKNOWN  

SUFFOLK        G BOSTON            1.92   3.13  04/0636  UNKNOWN  

REMARKS:

 

F. TORNADOES…
———————————————————————
(DIST)CITY/TOWN              COUNTY           DATE/         EF SCALE
LAT LON (DEG DECIMAL                          TIME(UTC)    (IF KNOWN)
DESCRIPTION                                                         
———————————————————————

G. STORM IMPACTS BY COUNTY…
———————————————————————

COUNTY            DEATHS           INJURIES             EVACUATIONS 
DESCRIPTION
———————————————————————
NEWPORT                                                          

SPASHOVER WAS OBSERVED ON OCEAN DRIVE AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE ROAD WAS CLOSED FROM FORT ADAMS TO BAILY BEACH
WITH SEAWATER AND DEBRIS.

BARNSTABLE                                                       

TREES WERE DOWNED IN ORLEANS BLOCKING ROUTE 6 FROM EXIT 12 TO THE
ROTARY. TREES WERE ALSO DOWNED IN HARWICH ON ROUTE 28 PARTIALLY
BLOCKING THE ROAD NEAR EVELYNS WAY. A TREE ALSO BLOCKED TRAINING
FIELD ROAD IN CHATHAM. TREES WERE ALSO DOWNED ON ROUTE 28A ON THE
BOURNE/FALMOUTH TOWN LINE.

NANTUCKET                                                        

STORM SURGE INUNDATED MADAKET BEACH WITH SEAWATER ALSO INUNDATING
LONG POND.

$$

LEGEND:
I-INCOMPLETE DATA
E-ESTIMATED

MANNING/BUTTRICK

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator   
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Hurricane Earl Coordination Message #9…FINAL

Hello to all…

..Large Hurricane Earl Headed Toward Southeast New England. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings continue for much of the coastal areas..
..Large Hurricane Earl Threatens Southern New England with the potential for sustained tropical storm force winds particularly in Southeast New England but much of Eastern New England could be affected with tropical storm force winds in gusts and the potential for a period of hurricane force winds particularly over portions of Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyeard and Nantucket Island. Hurricane force wind gusts could occur as far north as Plymouth and as far west as Westport, Massachusetts..
..A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Hull, around Cape Cod to Westport Massachusetts including Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard Islands..
..A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from west of Westport Massachusetts to New Haven Connecticut including Block Island Rhode Island..
..A Tropical Storm Wind Warning is in effect for Northern Bristol and Western Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts..
..A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from north of Hull Massachusetts to the Mouth of the Merrimack River Massachusetts and from Stonington Maine to Eastport Maine..
..A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands from 2 PM Friday Afternoon through late tonight..
..Track guidance is gradually coalesing between the 40 North/70 West benchmark and between Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket Islands up through Cape Cod. Deviations in the forecast track could mean greater or lesser impact to Southern New England and there is still is up to 50-75 nautical mile error in the forecast track at this stage..
..All Emergency Management and Public Safety personnel, Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of major Hurricane Earl. People should review hurricane/tropical storm safety tips now as a precaution..
..VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net along with WX4NHC, Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center will activate at 2 PM This Afternoon for Earl’s closest path to New England..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 1 PM ET Friday lasting through Saturday Morning based on the current track and intensity of Hurricane Earl. Massachusetts State EOC RACES and MEMA RACES Regional Office activation is slated to occur Friday Morning. Eastern Massachusetts ARES will be placed on stand-by starting at 7 AM ET Friday Morning lasting through 7 PM Saturday Evening..

Models are gradually coalesing on a solution putting Earl anywhere from around the 40 North/70 West Benchmark and then east of Cape Cod to a track over Cape Cod and between Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket Islands. There remain some eastward and westward outliers but the general consensus of models is between those two areas. There remains a 50-75 nautical mile error which can still result in greater or lesser impact over the region. Any additional westward trends in the models or track will need to be monitored closely. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for portions of Eastern New England based on the latest projections.

The following is a rough estimation of impacts over the Tropical Storm Watch/Warning and Hurricane Warning areas based on the current track and intensity of the hurricane and its extremely large size. This could change based on hurricane intensity and track of the system:

Hurricane Warning Area (Plymouth Massachusetts through Westport Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard islands):

This region will see high-end sustained tropical storm force winds with hurricane force wind gusts. It is now looking more likely that the Outer Cape and particularly Nantucket Island would have the potential to also see a brief period of sustained hurricane force winds and gusts pending the eventual track of Earl. Rainfall will be very heavy with the potential for a swath of 2-4″ rainfall with isolated higher amounts as high as 6″. Concerning Rainfall, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued from 2 PM through late tonight for South Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. Storm surge will be most prevelant over north and east facing beaches with a 2-4 foot storm surge. Locations in Provincetown and Wellfleet could see greater impact if the track is a bit closer and the storm surge may occur some time after storm passage depending on that track. Along the South Coast of Massachusetts, storm surge will be less of a threat due to the expected Northeast winds.

Hurricane Warning Area (Hull to Plymouth Massachusetts)
This area could see sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and possibly slightly higher gusts. The Hurricane Warning has been issued to guard against a more westward solution of Earl. If that were to verify, hurricane force conditions sustained or in gusts may occur but the current solution would keep most of that to the south and east of this region. Rainfall in this area is likely to be 2-4″ with isolated higher amounts of 6″ possible. A Storm Surge of 1-2 feet is possible in this area.

Tropical Storm Warning (West of Westport Massachusetts to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Block Island RI and points west covering South Central Rhode Island)
This area could see sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts up to 50-55 MPH particularly along the South Coast of Rhode Island and Block Island RI. A Storm Surge of 1-3 feet could occur particularly in north and east facing beach locations. Rainfall of 1-3″ with isolated higher amounts are possible in this area.

Tropical Storm Wind Warning (Northern Bristol and Western Plymouth Counties)
In this area, tropical storm force winds sustained at 30-40 MPH with gusts of 60 MPH are likely. Closer to the Cape Cod Canal, sustained winds of 40-50 MPH with gusts to 70 MPH or possibly hurricance force are likely. Rainfall of 2-4″ with isolated higher amount of up to 6″ are possible.

Tropical Storm Warning Area (Mouth of Merrimack River Massachusetts to Hull Massachusetts and from Watch Hill Rhode Island to Westport Massachusetts):
In this area, sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts of 40-50 MPH are likely along the immediate coast. Across the remainder of inland Eastern Massachusetts, winds will drop off significantly. Rainfall of 1-3″ with isolated higher amounts are possible but if a further west track were to materialize more wind could occur in portions of Eastern Massachusetts. It is noted that portions of Worcester County and Northeast Connecticut are expected to see lighter rainfall amounts of around 1″.

There remains several factors that will further determine the track and intesnity of Major Hurricane Earl that are still being scrutinized by the weather models are as follows:

1.) The strength and location of the Great Lakes trough and its interaction with Hurricane Earl
The strength and location of the Great Lakes trough and its interaction with Hurricane Earl will be critical. If the trough’s location is further west or not amplifying and interacting with Hurricane Earl, this would allow a closer to the coast track and more direct impact. If it amplifies and can interact with Earl, it would result in a greater push to the east.

2.) The sharpness and locations of the turns Earl will make
Depending on the sharpness and locations of Earl turns will determine the interaction with the Great Lakes trough and his eventual movement. Earl is currently moving to the North-Northeast and this will need to be monitored to see if there is any bending back to more northerly or if he transitions more northeastward earlier in time.

3.) Intensity of Hurricane Earl as it moves up the coast
Earl is now a Category-Two system and has lost his inner core. That being the case, Earl is still a large system and is expected to remain a large hurricane as it approaches Southeast New England. This should mean only gradual weakening over the course of the next 24 hours.

4.) Assymetry as it reaches our latitude and if Earl will be more symmetric than most New England type systems
The general rules of Hurricanes in New England are that the winds will shift more to the eastward side of the system with some winds but more heavy rain on the west side as the system becomes assymetric and does an extratropical transition. Comptuer models are indicating that will be the case here, however, Earl is a large hurricane and water temperatures off our coast are warmer than normal. This may allow Earl to keep more symmetry than normal and allow for more winds on the west side. This will need to be monitored with real-time satellite, radar and surface observations. So far, there remains strong winds on the west side of the system. Spotty tree damage was reported in New Jersey in the past couple hours with a 70 MPH wind gust at Dare County Regional Airport in North Carolina.

5.) Extratropical transition, where that occurs and how it affects the system
Given Earl is such a formidible tropical system, it is unlikely that Earl will start extratropical transition near us or it will start but the system will remain largely tropical. If it becomes more of a hybrid or starts the extratropical transition, this could also keep stronger winds west of the center. It is again something that will need to be monitored with real-time, satellite, radar and surface observations.

Swells and rip currents will become a very serious concern as Earl tracks closer to the region and this will be a problem extending through the Labor Day Holiday Weekend after Earl passes. There have been many times where offshore tropical systems have caused injuries or fatalities on the water from the surf and rip currents so folks swimming at area beaches over the next several days with the hot weather expected are advise to heed the advice of lifeguards and monitor NWS Taunton products for high surf advisory information. See link below for the the surf zone forecasts for more information and if High Surf Advisories are posted, that link will be posted and updated here:

NWS Taunton Surf Zone Forecast Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus51.KBOX.html

All Emergency Management and Public Safety personnel, Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of major Hurricane Earl. People should now be reviewing their preparedness measures for tropical storm/hurricane force conditions as a precaution in inland areas and as a requirement along the coast. This information has been provided via the Hurricane Preparedness Week Public Information Statements of Safety Tips and an updated Public Information Statement of Safety Tips as well as a Tropical Terminology Public Information Statement listed via the links below:

http://www.wx1box.org/local/hurrpre.txt
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nous41.KBOX.html
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1009011537.nous41.html

The VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net along with WX4NHC, Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center will activate at 2 PM Friday for Northeast US impact. It is noted that the VoIP Hurricane Net will merge into one large command net with New England Echolink/IRLP operations as it approaches New England. Please see these web sites for information on the Hurricane Nets and the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, WX4NHC:

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

Voip Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

WX4NHC Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org

From a spotting perspective, we will be looking for any and all reports per the SKYWARN reporting criteria. We’ll also be looking for lowest barometric pressure readings across Southeast New England. Also, pictures of damage and incidents as they occur in near real-time or shortly after release will be very helpful to media, emergency manamgement, the National Hurricane Center and the NWS Taunton Forecast Office. A reminder on SKYWARN Net frequencies for the region via the link below:

http://www.wx1box.org/node/37

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 1 PM ET Friday lasting through Saturday Morning based on the current track and intensity of Hurricane Earl. Massachusetts State EOC RACES and MEMA RACES Regional Office activation is slated to occur Friday Morning. Eastern Massachusetts ARES will be placed on stand-by starting at 7 AM ET Friday Morning lasting through 7 PM Saturday Evening.

The latest NWS Taunton Hurricane Local Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Area Forecast Discussion and National Hurricane Center Advisory information on Earl are listed below:

NWS Taunton Hurricane Local Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Earl Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt32.KNHC.html

Hurricane Earl Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt42.KNHC.html

Hurricane Earl Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt22.KNHC.html

Hurricane Earl Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font12.KNHC.html

This will be the final Hurricane Earl Coordination Message as we move into SKYWARN Operations mode.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator           
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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