Storm Coordination Message #1 – Major Early Season Nor’easter/Winter Storm Saturday 10/29/11 Event

Hello to all..

..Anomalous Major Early Season Nor’easter with the potential for heavy wet snow and tree and wire damage for much of interior Southern New England along with strong winds with heavy rain, strong to damaging winds and potential coastal flood issues in Southeast New England from the Boston to Providence corridor south and east through Cape Cod and the Islands. Confidence is growing on a potentially significant major nor’easter event..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Morning for Northern Connecticut, Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts, Providence County Rhode Island and Cheshire and Hillsborough Counties of New Hampshire due to heavy snow accumulations or snowfall impact that is greater than normal due to its heavy, wet nature and foiliage on the trees coupled with strong winds..
..Minor Coastal Flooding is possible at the time of high tide on Saturday Afternoon with the potential of Minor to Moderate Coastal Flooding for the Saturday Evening high tide over East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. A Coastal Flood Watch will likely be issued for these tide cycles later today..
..Strong to Damaging winds will also be possible across East and South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Heavy Rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and rivers and streams rising to bankful are possible over Southeast New England along and southeast of the Boston to Providence corridor..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely starting around 2-4 PM EDT Saturday with overnight operations through Sunday Morning also likely. The start time will be fine tuned between now and Saturday Morning..
..ARES/RACES/MARS and other EMCOMM groups in the Winter Storm Watch area and even outside of the Winter Storm Watch area should closely monitor the progress of this potentially significant, anomalous early season major nor’easter/winter storm and seek advice from their local leadership..

Weather models are now in very good agreement on potentially major impact from a significant major nor’easter/early season winter storm for much of interior Southern New England. East and Southeast coastal areas will see strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall and the potential for minor coastal flooding on the Saturday Afternoon high tide with minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of the late Saturday Evening high tide. Exact details will become better defined based on future model runs as we get closer to this potentially major event.

A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Morning for Northern Connecticut, Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts, Providence County Rhode Island and Cheshire and Hillsborough Counties of New Hampshire due to heavy snow accumulations or snowfall impact that is greater than normal due to its heavy, wet nature and foiliage on the trees coupled with strong winds. Snow accumulations of at least 2-5″ are likely. Higher amounts potentially greater than 6″ are also a threat and it is likely to see stated snowfall amounts increase a bit in future statements and weather forecasts as future model runs lend greater confidence to the heavy snow potential. The snowfall is expected across all elevations with the higher elevations receiving the highest amounts. Snowfall of just 3″ due to its heavy and wet content along with foiliage on the trees will likely cause at least isolated tree and wire damage and power outages. Snowfall of 6″ or more would increase the impact further and this is becoming more likely. Strong winds will affect portions of the Winter Storm Watch area with wind gusts up to 20-30 MPH possible. With the heavy, wet snow and wind gusts up to 30 MPH, this could exacerbate any potential damage to trees and wires.

Due to high astronomical tides and northeast fetch, Minor Coastal Flooding is possible at the time of the Saturday Afternoon high tide along East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands. As winds increase into Saturday Evening, this will increase the threat for coastal flooding with minor to moderate coastal flooding possible at the time of high tide late Saturday Evening for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. A Coastal Flood Watch will likely be issued for this potential later today.

Areas outside of the Winter Storm Watch area and especially along and southeast of the Boston to Providence line will likely experience heavy rainfall with rain amounts approaching and possibly exceeding 2″. This could result in urban and poor drainage flooding as well as rivers and streams rising to bankful. Strong to damaging winds will also be possible along East and South Coastal Massachusetts as well as Cape Cod and the Islands and a High Wind Watch could be issued for portions of the area later today.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely starting around 2-4 PM EDT Saturday with overnight operations through Sunday Morning also likely. The start time will be fine tuned between now and Saturday Morning. ARES/RACES/MARS and other EMCOMM groups in the Winter Storm Watch area and even outside of the Winter Storm Watch area should closely monitor the progress of this potentially significant, anomalous early season major nor’easter/winter storm and seek advice from their local leadership.

The next coordination message will be sent by 9 PM ET today. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator       
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Storm Coordination Message – Thursday 10/27/11 Storm Event/Potential Nor’easter Event Sautday 10/29/11

Hello to all..

..Minor Coastal Flooding occurred in parts of the North Shore at the midday high tide. Rain is mixing with wet snow over portions of Northwest Massachusetts and Southwest New Hampshire..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect Cheshire, and West-Central Hillsborough Counties of New Hampshire as well as Franklin, Northern Worcester and Nortehrn Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts until 11 PM tonight for 1-3″ of wet snow with isolated 4″ amounts. Most accumulations will occur at elevations around or above 1000 feet. Areas outside of the advisory area may see some rain/wet snow mix but little to no accumulation is expected..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will be utilized to monitor rain changing over to snow and any snowfall amounts in the higher elevations..
..A larger, more potent early season nor’easter will impact the region Saturday Afternoon and especially Saturday Night. This could bring a heavy wet snow to many interior locations and due to trees still having foiliage on them this could lead to a threat for tree and power line damage. Storm coordination messages with more details on this threat will be posted during the day on Friday. SKYWARN Spotters, Amateur Radio Operators and ARES/RACES and other EMCOMM groups should begin monitoring the progress of this potential early season winter-like nor’easter..
..This will likely be the last coordination message for the Thursday storm system. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator       
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Storm Coordination Message #3 – -Thursday 10/27-Friday 10/28/11 Storm Event

Hello to all..

..Storm System starting to affect Southern New England Thursday Morning through Friday Morning with a decent rainfall, potential for some snowfall accumulations in Northwest Massachusetts and Southwest New Hampshire and perhaps even some snowflakes seen over much of Southern New England before precipitation ends along with the threat for Minor Coastal Flooding at the Thursday Midday high tide..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect from 9 AM to 2 PM EDT Thursday for East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands..
..Snowfall in Northwest Massachusetts is currently expected to be 1-3″ of heavy and wet snow but will be contingent on the timing of the changeover in precipitation from rain to snow and the amount of precipitation that falls as snow along with the cooling of the ground in the evening hours. If amounts reach 2-3″ or higher, isolated pockets of tree and wire damage will be possible. This is particularly true in the higher elevations near or above 1000 feet..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible for the Thursday high tide cycle and then for snowfall late Thursday Afternoon through early Friday Morning. SKYWARN Self-Activation may also be utilized to cover the situation..

A storm system will affect the region Thursday Morning into Friday Morning. Precipitation will start as rain and could be heavy at times. About 1 to 1.5″ of rainfall with isolated higher amounts is possible.

As we get into Thursday Evening, possibly as early as the evening rush hour in Southern New Hampshire and Northwest Massachusetts, rain could change to a heavy wet snow. At this time, 1-3″ of snow is expected. With trees having foiliage on them in some areas and the weight of the heavy wet snow, there is potential for isolated pockets of tree and wire damage. This is particularly true in the higher elevations near or above 1000 feet. This potential would rise significantly if more of the precipitation falls as that heavy, wet snow and that will need close monitoring. The current scenario, however, is for 1-3″ of heavy and wet snow. Wet snowflakes may be seen all the way through interior Southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island before the precipitation ends late Thursday Night but this will again depend on how much cold air seeps into the region. No accumulation is expected outside of Southwest New Hampshire and Northwest Massachusetts.

The other potential threat from the storm system is minor coastal flooding at the time of the midday Thursday high tide. A significant storm surge is not expected but with high astronomical tides and the onshore Northeast flow, minor coastal flooding will be possible with the impact to shore roads along the east coast of Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from 9 AM to 2 PM Thursday to cover this potential for minor coastal flooding midday Thursday.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Thursday for the coastal flood potential and rain changing over to snow late Thursday Afternoon through early Friday Morning. This may also be handled through SKYWARN Self-Activation. This will be the last message on this situation unless Ops at NWS Taunton occur then if time allows a shortened coordination message will be sent. Below is the NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator        
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Storm Coordination Message #2 -Thursday 10/27-Friday 10/28/11 Potential Storm Event

Hello to all..

..Storm System will affect Southern New England Thursday Morning through Friday Morning with a decent rainfall, potential for some snowfall accumulations in Northwest Massachusetts and Southwest New Hampshire and perhaps even some snowflakes seen over much of Southern New England before precipitation ends along with the threat for Minor Coastal Flooding at the Thursday Midday high tide..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from 9 AM to 2 PM EDT Thursday for East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands..
..Snowfall in Northwest Massachusetts is currently expected to be 1-3″ of heavy and wet snow but will be contingent on the timing of the changeover in precipitation from rain to snow and the amount of precipitation that falls as snow. If amounts reach 2-3″ or higher, isolated pockets of tree and wire damage will be possible. This is particularly true in the higher elevations..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible for the Thursday high tide cycle and then for snowfall late Thursday Afternoon through early Friday Morning..

A storm system will affect the region Thursday Morning into Friday Morning. Precipitation will start as rain and could be heavy at times. About 1 to 1.5″ of rainfall with isolated higher amounts is possible.

As we get into Thursday Evening, possibly as early as the evening rush hour in Southern New Hampshire and Northwest Massachusetts, rain could change to a heavy wet snow. At this time, 1-3″ of snow is expected. With trees having foiliage on them in some areas and the weight of the heavy wet snow, there is potential for isolated pockets of tree and wire damage. This is particularly true in the higher elevations. This potential would rise significantly if more of the precipitation falls as that heavy, wet snow and that will need close monitoring. The current scenario, however, is for 1-3″ of heavy and wet snow. Wet snowflakes may be seen all the way through Southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island before the rain ends late Thursday Night but this will again depend on how much cold air seeps into the region. No accumulation is expected outside of Southwest New Hampshire and Northwest Massachusetts.

The other potential threat from the storm system is minor coastal flooding at the time of the midday Thursday high tide. A significant storm surge is not expected but with high astronomical tides and the onshore Northeast flow, minor coastal flooding will be possible with the impact to shore roads along the east coast of Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from 9 AM to 2 PM Thursday to cover this potential for minor coastal flooding midday Thursday.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Thursday for the coastal flood potential and rain changing over to snow late Thursday Afternoon through early Friday Morning. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Thursday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator       
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Thursday 10/27-Friday 10/28/11 Potential Storm Event

Hello to all..

..Storm System slated to move into Southern New England Thursday will have the potential to produce minor coastal flooding over successive high tide cycles Thursday into Friday Afternoon over East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands and the potential for the first accumulating snowfall over Northwest Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire late Thursday and Thursday Night particularly in the higher elevations. That snowfall may be heavy and wet and depending on accumulations and amount of foilage on trees could result in isolated pockets of tree and wire damage..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Thursday and possibly around the high tide cycles on Friday. A more detailed coordination message will follow late Wednesday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator       
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday October 19th, 2011 Heavy Rainfall Event

Hello to all..

..Heavy Rainfall will affect much of Southern New England starting around midday and lasting through tonight. Rainfall of 1-3″ is expected with isolated higher amounts. This rainfall may produce urban and poor drainage flooding over the areas that receive the highest rainfall. Rivers and streams may rise to bankful but are currently not expected to go over flood stage though this will be monitored throughout the day..
..Strong winds to Wind Advisory criteria may occur across Cape Cod and the Islands Thursday. A separate coordination message may be issued late tonight or Thursday if a Wind Advisory is posted..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will be utilized to gather rainfall reports 2″ or more and any urban/poor drainage flooding reports that may occur later this afternoon and tonight. Ops at NWS Taunton are currently not anticipated but this will be monitored. This will be the only coordination message on today’s storm unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator       
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

Read more

Wind Coordination Message #1 – Saturday October 15th-Sunday October 16th, 2011 Wind Event

Hello to all..

..Strong Winds to Affect South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island late Saturday Afternoon through early Sunday Morning as colder air moves into the region today through early Sunday Morning..
..A Wind Advisory is in effect for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island including Cape Cod and the Islands from 4 PM Saturday through 5 AM Sunday for sustained winds 25-35 MPH with gusts 45-50 MPH. The strongest winds are expected between 4 to 10 PM this afternoon and evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will be utilized over the South Coast Region to monitor for wind gusts 45 MPH or greater and any isolated to scattered pockets of wind damage that may occur. This will be the only coordination message on this event unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator       
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Storm/Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Friday October 14th, 2011 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Period of Heavy rainfall and potential urban/poor drainage flooding with the chance for an isolated to scatterd strong to severe thunderstorm with strong to damaging winds especially this Friday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton possible Friday Afternoon and Evening..

At 750 AM Doppler Radar, showed scattered showers and a couple heavier downpours with the most coverage of showers over West-Central Connecticut and extreme Western Massachusetts and other scattered showers with a heavier downpour or two over South-Central and Eastern Massachusetts and North-Central Rhode Island. Radar shows a break in the precipitation with an area of rainfall a few hundred miles offshore that will likely move into Southern New England towards midday and early afternoon lasting into the evening. It is that area of rain that could produce more widespread heavier downpours capable of urban and poor drainage flooding with the possibility of an isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm capable of strong to damaging winds. For the morning, activity will be in the form of scattered light to moderate rain showers with a heavier downpour or two possible.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible this Friday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last complete coordination message on today’s event. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator       
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Thursday October 13th/Friday October 14th, 2011 Weather Event

Hello to all..

..A period of Heavy Rainfall will affect portions of Central and Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island this morning through midday. This could result in minor urban and poor drainage flooding during the morning commute through midday..
..Another potential for heavy rainfall, urban/poor drainage flooding and possibly even isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and heavy rainfall as the primary threats could occur late Friday Afternoon and Evening in the region. Further details on the Friday event will be posted in a coordination message this evening..
..SKYWARN self-activation will monitor rainfall totals and any flooding reports this morning and Ops at NWS are not anticipated today. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Friday. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator       
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Reminder & Special Announcement: Southern New England Weather Conference – Saturday October 22nd, 2011

Hello to all..

The following serves as a reminder and special announcement on the Southern New England Weather Conference for Saturday October 22nd, 2011. Registration is open until one week before the conference. See link below for all details on the conference and the registration:

http://www.wx1box.org/node/1352

We hope to see many of you at the weather conference. Thanks to all for their support!

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator       
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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