Storm Coordination Message #3 – Damaging Wind/Heavy Rainfall/Minor Coastal Flooding Potential Thursday Night 12/24/20-Friday PM 12/25/20

Hello to all…

..Powerful storm system will affect the region late Christmas Eve night into Christmas Day Afternoon with damaging winds a significant potential threat along with heavy rainfall causing urban and poor drainage flooding and possibly river and stream flooding and the potential for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Friday Morning in south coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island. There is even the potential for a fine line of strong to severe thunderstorms during the overnight hours Christmas Eve Night into Christmas Morning..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from Midnight Thursday Night through 4 PM Friday Afternoon for all of Rhode Island, Eastern Essex, Southeast Middlesex, Suffolk, Norfolk, Bristol, Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes and Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH, Gusts to 65 MPH and isolated to scattered higher gusts near any convection and across Southeast Coastal Massachusetts and South Coastal Rhode Island of 75 MPH. These winds will cause scattered to numerous pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages. The timeframe for highest winds is between 6 AM-12 PM Friday..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from Midnight Thursday Night through 12 PM Friday Afternoon for Northern Connecticut, Southern Worcester and Central Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH, Gusts to 60 MPH and isolated to scattered higher gusts near any convection and in higher terrain locations. These winds will cause scattered to numerous pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages. The timeframe of strongest winds is between 5 AM-10 AM Friday..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from Midnight Thursday Night through 12 PM Friday Afternoon for Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Northern Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 10-25 MPH with gusts up to 50 MPH and isolated to scattered higher gusts near any convection and in higher terrain locations. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages. The timeframe of strongest winds is between 5 AM-10 AM Friday..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect for the entire NWS Boston/Norton coverage area for heavy rainfall with widespread amounts of 1-3″ of rain with isolated pockets or a band of rainfall greater than 3″ in some part of the NWS Boston/Norton coverage area. This rainfall combined with snow melt may produce urban and poor drainage flooding and possibly river and stream flooding in portions of Southern New England..
..Minor coastal flooding could occur at the time of high tide Friday Morning in south coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and will be contingent on the maximum wind speeds coinciding with that high tide cycle and will be monitored..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will be needed Christmas Eve night through Christmas Afternoon for the damaging wind potential along with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and minor coastal flooding in Southeast coastal New England. ARES/RACES groups should monitor this situation and seek advice from local leadership as we get closer to impacts from this storm system especially due to the damaging wind potential..
..Pictures and videos of storm damage and flooding can be sent to the WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter social media feeds, as a reply to this message or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the SKYWARN Spotter/Amateur Radio Operator for the photos/videos..

A powerful storm system is on track to move through Southern New England late Christmas Eve night through Christmas Afternoon. The headlines depict the current thinking and an increase in the strength of the winds and the amount of rainfall noted. Key factors remain as follows:

1.) The wind impacts will likely be on the high-end and rival some of the past high impact wind events of the last 3 years and will bear close watching given the Christmas holiday. High Wind Warnings are now posted for Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island, South-Central and Eastern Massachusetts late Thursday Night into Friday Afternoon. Wind Advisories are posted for Western Massachusetts. While southerly wind events typically have a temperature inversion that keeps the strongest winds aloft, this storm event may allow the inversion to be broken between the heavy rainfall and any thunderstorms potentially allowing the strongest winds to reach the surface. In addition, winds at the upper levels of the atmosphere will be so powerful that even with 50-60% of those winds reaching the surface and now its expected that 70% of those winds could reach the surface, winds of high wind warning levels and potentially high-end high wind warning level winds would be possible.
2.) The increase in rainfall is expected to produce urban and poor drainage flooding and even some minor river and stream flooding between the heavy rainfall and the snow melt with more widespread 2-3″ rainfall expected with higher amounts greater than 3″ in isolated locations or in convective bands in the area. Flood Watches are now posted for the entire NWS Boston/Norton coverage area.
3.) Minor coastal flooding along South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island will need to be monitored especially if the strongest winds occur near the time of high tide. At this time, the strongest winds are expected after the time of high tide.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will be needed Christmas Eve night through Christmas Afternoon for the damaging wind potential along with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and minor coastal flooding in Southeast coastal New England. ARES/RACES groups should monitor this situation and seek advice from local leadership as we get closer to impacts from this storm system.Pictures and videos of storm damage and flooding can be sent to the WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter social media feeds, as a reply to this message or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the SKYWARN Spotter/Amateur Radio Operator for the photos/videos. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Christmas Eve morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Flood Watch Statement, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Rainfall Maps and Facebook Infographics on the Damaging Wind Potential:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Rainfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/crh/pqpf?sid=box#tab-1

NWS Boston/Norton Facebook Infographics on Damaging Wind Potential:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.3575744189186593/3575743735853305/

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Storm Coordination Message #2 – Damaging Wind/Heavy Rainfall/Minor Coastal Flooding Potential Thursday Night 12/24/20-Friday PM 12/25/20

Hello to all…

..Powerful storm system will affect the region Christmas Eve night into Christmas Day Afternoon with damaging winds a significant potential threat along with heavy rainfall causing urban and poor drainage flooding and possibly river and stream flooding and the potential for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Friday Morning in south coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island. There is even the potential for a fine line of strong to severe thunderstorms during the overnight hours Christmas Eve Night into Christmas Morning..
..A High Wind Watch remains in effect for all of Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts and has been expanded to include Tolland and Windham Counties Connecticut and Southern Worcester County Massachusetts from Thursday Evening to Friday Afternoon for sustained winds of 20-35 MPH with gusts to 65 MPH and isolated to scattered higher wind gusts..
..These winds will have the potential to produce scattered to numerous pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages in this region. Additional watches or advisories may be required in future updates..
..Heavy rainfall with widespread amounts of 1-2″ of rain with isolated pockets or a band of 2-3″ rainfall is possible across Southern New England. This rainfall combined with snow melt may produce urban and poor drainage flooding and possibly river and stream flooding in portions of Southern New England..
..Minor coastal flooding could occur at the time of high tide Friday Morning in south coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and will be contingent on the maximum wind speeds coinciding with that high tide cycle and will be monitored..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will be needed Christmas Eve night through Christmas Afternoon for the damaging wind potential along with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and minor coastal flooding in Southeast coastal New England. ARES/RACES groups should monitor this situation and seek advice from local leadership as we get closer to impacts from this storm system especially due to the damaging wind potential..

A powerful storm system will move its way through Southern New England late Christmas Eve night through Christmas Afternoon. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors remain as follows:

1.) The wind impacts could be on the high-end and rival some of the past high impact wind events of the last 3 years and will bear close watching given the Christmas holiday. High Wind Watches were expanded to include Southern Worcester County Massachusetts and Tolland and Windham Counties of Connecticut and additional Wind headlines could be required in future updates. While southerly wind events typically have a temperature inversion that keeps the strongest winds aloft, this storm event may allow the inversion to be broken between the heavy rainfall and any thunderstorms potentially allowing the strongest winds to reach the surface. In addition, winds at the upper levels of the atmosphere will be so powerful that even with 50-60% of those winds reaching the surface, winds of high wind warning levels and potentially high-end high wind warning level winds would be possible.
2.) There is also a high potential for heavy rainfall and flooding and will bear close watching with this storm event especially if 2-3″ of rainfall is more widespread across the area coupled with rapid snowmelt.
3.) Minor coastal flooding along South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island will need to be monitored especially if the strongest winds occur near the time of high tide.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will be needed Christmas Eve night through Christmas Afternoon for the damaging wind potential along with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and minor coastal flooding in Southeast coastal New England. ARES/RACES groups should monitor this situation and seek advice from local leadership as we get closer to impacts from this storm system. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 PM Wednesday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, High Wind Watch Statement and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Storm Coordination Message #1 – Damaging Wind/Heavy Rainfall/Minor Coastal Flooding Potential Thursday Night 12/24/20-Friday PM 12/25/20

Hello to all…

..Powerful storm system will affect the region Christmas Eve night into Christmas Day Afternoon with damaging winds a significant potential threat along with heavy rainfall causing urban and poor drainage flooding and possibly river and stream flooding and the potential for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Friday Morning in south coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island. There is even the potential for a fine line of strong to severe thunderstorms during the overnight hours Christmas Eve Night..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect for all of Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts from Thursday Evening to Friday Afternoon for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 65 MPH and isolated to scattered higher wind gusts. These winds will have the potential to produce scattered to numerous pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages in this region. Additional watches or advisories may be required in future updates..
..Heavy rainfall with widespread amounts of 1-2″ of rain with isolated pockets or a band of 2-3″ rainfall is possible across Southern New England. This rainfall combined with snow melt may produce urban and poor drainage flooding and possibly river and stream flooding in portions of Southern New England..
..Minor coastal flooding could occur at the time of high tide Friday Morning in south coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and will be contingent on the maximum wind speeds coinciding with that high tide cycle and will be monitored..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will be needed Christmas Eve night through Christmas Afternoon for the damaging wind potential along with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and minor coastal flooding in Southeast coastal New England. ARES/RACES groups should monitor this situation and seek advice from local leadership as we get closer to impacts from this storm system..

A powerful storm system will move its way through Southern New England late Christmas Eve night through Christmas Afternoon. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors are as follows:

1.) The wind impacts could be on the high-end and rival some of the past high impact wind events of the last 3 years and will bear close watching given the Christmas holiday. Additional Wind headlines could be required in future updates. While southerly wind events typically have a temperature inversion that keeps the strongest winds aloft, this storm event may allow the inversion to be broken between the heavy rainfall and any thunderstorms potentially allowing the strongest winds to reach the surface. In addition, winds at the upper levels of the atmosphere will be so powerful that even with 50-60% of those winds reaching the surface, winds of high wind warning levels and potentially high-end high wind warning level winds would be possible.
2.) There is also a high potential for heavy rainfall and flooding and will bear close watching with this storm event especially if 2-3″ of rainfall is more widespread across the area coupled with rapid snowmelt.
3.) Minor coastal flooding along South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island will need to be monitored especially if the strongest winds occur near the time of high tide.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will be needed Christmas Eve night through Christmas Afternoon for the damaging wind potential along with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and minor coastal flooding in Southeast coastal New England. ARES/RACES groups should monitor this situation and seek advice from local leadership as we get closer to impacts from this storm system. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, High Wind Watch Statement and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

 

Storm Coordination Message #4 – Wednesday Night 12/16/20-Thursday Afternoon 12/17/20 Major Winter Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..A significant major winter storm is on track for much of Southern New England. The major winter storm will have the potential to bring heavy snow, the potential for whiteout and near blizzard conditions, strong wind gusts at the coast of up to 50-60 MPH, 40-45 MPH with isolated higher wind gust inland and the potential for minor to low-end moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide Thursday..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 7 PM Wednesday Night through 1 PM Thursday for Northern Connecticut, Providence and Western Kent Counties of Rhode Island and Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester, Norfolk, Essex, Middlesex and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts for 10-17″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible and wind gusts up to 40-45 MPH inland and 45-50 MPH at the coast. The winds and heavy snowfall may create a period of whiteout and near blizzard conditions..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 7 PM Wednesday Night through 1 PM Thursday for the remainder of Rhode Island, Bristol, Plymouth and Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts for 6-12″ of snow and isolated higher amounts possible and wind gusts of up to 45 MPH inland, 50-55 MPH with isolated higher gusts in East and South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and 55-60 MPH on Cape Cod with isolated higher gusts. These winds along with the snow possibly being heavy and wet especially at the coast could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 7 PM Wednesday Night through 1 PM Thursday for Dukes County (Marthas Vineyard) for 3-6″ of snow and wind gusts to 60 MPH. The winds and the wet snow may cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 10 PM Wednesday Evening through 10 AM Thursday Morning for Block Island RI, Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and isolated higher gusts possible. These winds and any snow particularly on Martha’s Vineyard may result in isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 10 AM to 4 PM Thursday for East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod, Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket for minor shore road flooding of coastal roads and the time of the Thursday high tide cycle..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets likely late Wednesday Night through Thursday Afternoon. Some of the heaviest snow is expected overnight through the Thursday Morning commute with high snowfall rates. Any spotter reports during overnight hours as well as throughout the storm on snow accumulation, snow/wind damage and any precip changeover in Southeast New England will be critical to help forecasts throughout the storm..

A potentially significant and major winter storm is now expected across all of Southern New England with weather models now largely aligned on outcomes. The headlines depict the current thinking with Winter Storm Warnings now in place across much of Southern New England except for the islands. Winds look a bit stronger prompting High Wind Warnings for the islands with the wind threat for other areas. Key factors include:

1.) The cutoff of heavy snow is now expected to be north of the NWS Norton coverage area and hence the Winter Storm Warnings and those warnings pushed northward up to the New Hampshire border.
2.) The southern parts of the area from Southern Rhode Island through Southeast Massachusetts possibly as far north as Boston, Cape Cod and Marthas Vineyard could have a mix or changeover to sleet and rain for a few hours before a change back to snow and a flash freeze causing rapid icing conditions. Areas in Southeast New England are now expected to see 6-12″ of snow with the wide variance due to any mixing that may take place. The question will be how much snow occurs in a front-end thump of heavy precipitation before the mix or changeover and whether the mix or changeover occurs. This looks most likely for the Outer Cape and Marthas Vineyard but could extend to other parts of Southeast coastal New England. In addition, this could mean a wetter snow for this area and the tree and power line damage potential will need monitoring between the wet snow and strong wind gusts to 45-60 MPH.
3.) Widespread 10″-17″ of snow could occur across Northern Connecticut, Northwest Rhode Island and interior Massachusetts along, north and west of I-95. Higher amounts greater than 17″ are possible in some parts of this area. The strong winds and heavy snowfall rates could cause whiteout and near blizzard conditions.
4.) The low pressure system will not be particularly strong but does look a bit stronger than earlier modeled and the pressure gradient of winds between low pressure to the south and high pressure to the north coupled with high astronomical tides will result in minor to possibly low-end moderate coastal flooding depending on the strength of the winds at the time of high tide. A coastal flood advisory remains in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and Marthas Vineyard to cover this potential.
5.) Wind gusts of 45-60 MPH are expected along Southeast coastal New England. This is covered in Winter Storm Warnings headlines for most areas and a High Wind Warning is in effect for the islands for the wind gust potential to 60 MPH. This could result in isolated tree and power line damage and isolated power outages. If the system were to be stronger than currently modeled, the potential for stronger wind gusts would increase.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets likely late Wednesday Night through Thursday Afternoon. Some of the heaviest snow is expected overnight through the Thursday Morning commute with high snowfall rates. Any spotter reports during overnight hours as well as throughout the storm on snow accumulation, snow/wind damage and any precip changeover in Southeast New England will be critical to help forecasts throughout the storm. This will be the last coordination message unless a significant update to the situation occurs and time allows for an update as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, High Wind Warning statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and Snowfall Maps:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Snowfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Storm Coordination Message #3 – Wednesday Night 12/16/20-Thursday Afternoon 12/17/20 Major Winter Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Potential remains for a significant major winter storm across much of Southern New England depending on the track, speed and intensity of the system as it approaches our region. The major winter storm will have the potential to bring heavy snow, the potential for whiteout and near blizzard conditions, strong wind gusts at the coast of up to 50 MPH and the potential for minor to low-end moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide Thursday..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 7 PM Wednesday Night through 1 PM Thursday for Northern Connecticut, Providence and Kent Counties of Rhode Island and Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester, Norfolk, Middlesex and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts for 8-12″ of snow with isolated higher amounts up to 15″ and wind gusts up to 40 MPH inland and 45-50 MPH at the coast. The winds and heavy snowfall may create a period of whiteout and near blizzard conditions..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Wednesday Evening through Thursday Afternoon for South-Central Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts for 6-12″ of snow and wind gusts to 50 MPH. The possibility of a closer storm track and a possible mix or change to sleet and rain may reduce amounts further and hence why a Winter Storm Watch remains in effect right now due to uncertainty. If the current forecast holds and the storm track doesn’t come closer, the snow could be heavy and wet and along with the winds could result in isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 10 AM to 4 PM Thursday for East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod, Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket for minor shore road flooding of coastal roads and the time of the Thursday high tide cycle..
..Additional Warnings and/or Advisories may be required in future updates pending future model runs and the track, speed and intensity of the storm as it approaches our region..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets likely late Wednesday Night through Thursday Afternoon..

A potentially significant and major winter storm is now expected across the central and southern parts of Southern New England but it could spread into all of Southern New England depending on the track, speed and intensity of the winter storm. The headlines depict the current thinking with a conversion of Winter Storm Watches to Warnings across northern and central parts of Southern New England and the potential for some mixing or changeover to sleet and rain for parts or all of southeast New England due to a closer storm track keeping Winter Storm Watches in effect there due to uncertainty. Key factors include:

1.) The cutoff of heavy snow is now expected to be north of the NWS Norton coverage area and hence the Winter Storm Warnings and those warning pushed northward up to the New Hampshire border. This aspect will still be watched carefully.
2.) The southern parts of the area from Southern Rhode Island through Southeast Massachusetts, Cape Cod and Marthas Vineyard could have a mix or changeover to sleet and rain if the storm tracks close enough and brings warm air into this area. The question then becomes how much snow occurs in a front-end thump of heavy precipitation before the mix or changeover. In addition, this could mean a wetter snow for this area and the tree and power line damage potential will need monitoring between the wet snow and strong wind gusts to 50 MPH.
3.) Areas of 12″-15″ of snow could occur somewhere in the Winter Storm Warning area. Specific areas where this could occur aren’t clear but Northern Connecticut is one potential area for right now. This will be monitored for other areas within the Winter Storm Warning area. The strong winds and heavy snowfall rates could cause whiteout and near blizzard conditions.
4.) The low pressure system will not be particularly strong but the pressure gradient of winds between low pressure to the south and high pressure to the north coupled with high astronomical tides will result in minor to possibly low-end moderate coastal flooding depending on the strength of the winds at the time of high tide. A coastal flood advisory is now in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and Marthas Vineyard to cover this potential.
5.) Wind gusts of 40-50 MPH are expected along Southeast coastal New England. This could result in isolated tree and power line damage and isolated power outages. If the system were to be stronger than currently modeled, the potential for stronger wind gusts would increase.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets likely late Wednesday Night through Thursday Afternoon. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and Snowfall Maps:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Snowfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Storm Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday Night 12/16/20-Thursday Afternoon 12/17/20 Major Winter Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Potential remains for a significant major winter storm for now the central and southern parts of Southern New England and could spread into the rest of Southern New England depending on the track, speed and intensity of the system as it approaches our region. The major winter storm will have the potential to bring heavy snow, the potential for whiteout and near blizzard conditions, strong wind gusts at the coast of up to 50 MPH and the potential for minor to low-end moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide Thursday..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for all of Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts except for Nantucket Island for the potential of 8-12″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and wind gusts of 40-50 MPH. The Winter Storm Watch is also now expanded into Norfolk, Suffolk, Central and Southeast Middlesex, Southern Worcester, Hampshire, and Hampden Counties of Massachusetts from Wednesday Night into Thursday Afternoon for 7-10″ of snow with isolated higher amounts..
..Additional Watches and Warnings may be required in future updates pending future model updates and the track, speed and intensity of the storm system as it approaches our region..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets likely late Wednesday Night through Thursday Afternoon..

A potentially significant and major winter storm is now expected across the central and southern parts of Southern New England but it could spread into all of Southern New England depending on the track, speed and intensity of the winter storm. The headlines depict the current thinking which included an expansion of the Winter Storm Watch area northward into additional portions of Massachusetts from Springfield, Northampton, and Worcester into Boston. Key factors include:

1.) Where the cutoff of snowfall occurs in northern and northwest parts of the area, this could be between the Route 2 and Mass Pike corridors or further north along or north of the Route 2 corridor.
2.) Multiple models bring very heavy snowfall to the Winter Storm Watch area included into the expanded Winter Storm Watch area with some potential for areas just north of the current Winter Storm Watch area to get into this heavy snowfall area. This might require additional Winter Storm Watches for Northern Massachusetts. The southernmost model which keeps the heaviest snow near or just along the south coast has continued to gradually shift northward to align with international and other model guidance. Other model guidance are even further north with the heaviest snow but currently the heaviest snow is expected in and near the current Winter Storm Watch area.
3.) Areas of 12″ or more of snow could occur somewhere in the Winter Storm Watch area. There is also the potential it could include areas of the Winter Storm Watch and areas north and west of the current watch area and future model runs will determine that potential and where additional Winter Storm Watches may be needed if necessary and whether areas currently under Winter Storm Watches get upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings.
4.) The low pressure system will not be particularly strong but the pressure gradient of winds between low pressure to the south and high pressure to the north coupled with high astronomical tides will result in minor to possibly low-end moderate coastal flooding depending on the strength of the winds at the time of high tide.
5.) Wind gusts of 40-50 MPH are expected along Southeast coastal New England. This could result in isolated tree and power line damage and isolated power outages. If the system were to be stronger than currently modeled, the potential for stronger wind gusts would increase. The snow should not be particularly heavy and wet though that aspect will bear watching for areas of southeast coastal of New England.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets likely late Wednesday Night through Thursday Afternoon. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 PM Tuesday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Winter Storm Watch Statement, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and Snowfall Maps:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Snowfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday Night 12/16/20 Through Thursday Afternoon 12/17/20 Major Winter Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Potential exists for a significant major winter storm for at least the southern half of Southern New England and could spread into most or all of Southern New England depending on the track, speed and intensity of the system as it approaches our region. The major winter storm will have the potential to bring heavy snow, strong wind gusts at the coast of up to 50 MPH and the potential for minor to low-end moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide Thursday..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for all of Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts except for Nantucket Island for the potential of 6″ or more of snow and wind gusts of 40-50 MPH. Additional Watches may be required in future updates pending future model updates and the track, speed and intensity of the storm system as it approaches our region..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets likely late Wednesday Night through Thursday Afternoon..

A potentially significant and major winter storm across the southern half of Southern New England but it could spread into most or all of Southern New England depending on the track, speed and intensity of the winter storm. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Where the cutoff of snowfall occurs in northern and northwest parts of the area, this could be around the Mass Pike or further north along or north of the Route 2 corridor.
2.) Multiple models bring very heavy snowfall to the Winter Storm Watch area with some potential for areas just north of the Winter Storm Watch area to get into this heavy snowfall area. This might require additional Winter Storm Watches for areas of Eastern, South-Central and Southwest Massachusetts. The southernmost model which keeps the heaviest snow near or just along the south coast has been gradually shifting northward to align with international and other model guidance.
3.) Areas of 12″ or more of snow could occur somewhere in the Winter Storm Watch area. There is also the potential this could shift north and west and future model runs will determine that potential and where additional Winter Storm Watches may be needed if necessary.
4.) The low pressure system will not be particularly strong but the pressure gradient of winds between low pressure to the south and high pressure to the north coupled with high astronomical tides will result in minor to possibly low-end moderate coastal flooding depending on the strength of the winds at the time of high tide.
5.) Wind gusts of 40-50 MPH are expected along Southeast coastal New England. This could result in isolated tree and power line damage and isolated power outages. If the system were to be stronger than currently modeled, the potential for stronger wind gusts would increase.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets likely late Wednesday Night through Thursday Afternoon. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Winter Storm Watch Statement, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and Snowfall Maps:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Snowfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Monday 12/14/20 Light Snowfall Event and Wednesday Night 12/16/20-Thursday 12/17/20 Major Winter Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..A storm system will approach Southern New England tomorrow ushering cold air and a period of light snow Monday Afternoon into early evening. Amounts over Southern New England will range from a Coating to 2″. Will watch Southeast New England for isolated higher amounts of greater than 2″ if the precipitation is heavy enough and conditions are sufficiently cold at the surface to allow for accumulation..
..A much more significant and potentially major winter storm will affect Southern New England late Wednesday Night through Thursday with the potential for significant snowfall across Southern New England as well as the potential for strong winds and coastal flooding. All of this will be contingent on the track, speed and intensity of the system. Models have continued to shown this potential for several days but the details of the storm intensity, snow amounts, any cutoff in precipitation for northwest areas and whether any mixed precipitation occurs along the extreme south coast of New England is not certain and will be defined in the coming days..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the light snowfall for Monday and the more significant major winter storm for Wednesday Night into Thursday. Another coordination message will be posted by 10 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, and snowfall map..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Snowfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Storm Coordination Message #3 – Late Friday Night 12/4/20-Sunday Morning 12/6/20 Coastal Storm Impacts

Hello to all…

..Significant coastal storm on track for impacts across Southern New England late Friday Night through early Sunday Morning. Uncertainty is higher than normal at this time due to high spread in model guidance despite being about 12-18 hours from the potentially significant coastal storm event but there is the potential for heavy rainfall at the coast, heavy rain changing to a heavy wet snow in portions of interior Southern New England along with strong to damaging winds in the coastal areas..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM Sunday for Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for 6-12″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and the highest snow amounts above 1000 foot elevation along with wind gusts to 45 MPH. The snow will be heavy and wet and coupled with the strong winds will result in scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered to numerous power outages..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Saturday Morning through Sunday Morning for Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Southeast Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts and Tolland and Windham Counties of Connecticut for 6″ or more of snow. The snow will have the potential to be heavy and wet and if it accumulates 4″ or more along with the potential of wind gusts up to 45 MPH, there will be the potential for scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered to numerous power outages..
..Northwest Rhode Island and other parts of Northern Connecticut and interior Eastern Massachusetts could also see accumulating snow depending on the track speed and intensity of this coastal storm..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 1 PM Saturday Afternoon to Midnight Saturday Night for Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts up to 60 MPH and isolated higher gusts possible. Other areas of Eastern New England could see wind gusts up to 50 MPH with higher gusts and Wind Advisories could be needed in later updates. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this storm throughout the duration of the event. It is noted that this storm is coinciding with SKYWARN Recognition Day (SRD) and the WX1BOX Amateur Radio team will make a best effort to continue to support this event per current plans with the understanding that storm operations will take precedence and an updated SRD message will be sent later this evening..

Models are depicting and on track for a significant storm to affect the Mid-Atlantic and New England late Friday Night through Sunday Morning. That being said there is larger than normal spread in the guidance in terms of track and intensity and where intensification occurs which will have significant impacts to the forecast. Key factors include:

1.) How the jet streams phase and does that occur close enough to Southern New England. Some of the reliable model guidance certainly depicts that to be close to Southern New England for significant impacts. At this time, the eastern trend has halted and has trended back a bit west along with pretty much all model guidance calling for significant impacts from this storm.
2.) The higher terrain areas will have the potential to experience the most snow. At this time, highest confidence is in the Winter Storm Warning area of Worcester through Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts though the axis could shift a bit west or east depending on storm position and where the rapid intensification occurs. Other parts of the Winter Storm Watch area could see these heavier impacts and its a question of whether its western or eastern parts of the watch area. There is the potential for high snowfall rates of 2-3″ per hour and with the potential for heavy wet snow, there is an increased risk for numerous trees and wires down and numerous power outages wherever this band sets up and where snow is 4″ or more in the area. At this time, Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts are at the highest risk of this potential but other parts of the Winter Storm Watch area could see this potential.
3.) The intensity of the winds will be determined by the track, speed and intensity of the storm system. Currently inland wind gusts are expected to be 40-50 MPH with isolated higher gusts and wind gusts of 50-60 MPH with isolated higher wind gusts across coastal Southern New England. High Wind Warnings are now up for Cape Cod and the Islands and Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts with Wind Advisories possible for other parts of Eastern New England.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this storm throughout the duration of the event. It is noted that this storm is coinciding with SKYWARN Recognition Day (SRD) and the WX1BOX Amateur Radio team will make a best effort to continue to support this event per current plans with the understanding that storm operations will take precedence and an updated SRD message will be sent later this evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 1030 AM Saturday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement, High Wind Warning Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Snowfall and Rainfall Maps:

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Snowfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Boston/Norton Rainfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/crh/pqpf?sid=box

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #2 – Late Friday Night 12/4/20-Sunday Morning 12/6/20 Coastal Storm Impacts

Hello to all…

..Potentially significant coastal storm could have potential impacts across Southern New England late Friday Night through early Sunday Morning. Uncertainty is higher than normal at this time due to high spread in model guidance despite being about 30-36 hours from the potentially significant coastal storm event but there is the potential for heavy rainfall at the coast, heavy rain changing to a heavy wet snow in portions of interior Southern New England along with strong to damaging winds in the coastal areas..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Saturday Morning through Sunday Morning for Franklin, Hampshire, Western Hampden, Northern Worcester, North-Central Middlesex and Western Essex Counties and is now expanded to Eastern Hampden, Southern Worcester and Southeast Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for 6″ or more of snow. The snow will have the potential to be heavy and wet and if it accumulates 4″ or more along with the potential of wind gusts up to 45 MPH, there will be the potential for scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered to numerous power outages..
..Areas of Northern Connecticut, Northwest Rhode Island and other parts of interior Eastern Massachusetts could also see accumulating snow depending on the track speed and intensity of this coastal storm..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect from Saturday Afternoon through Saturday Evening for Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts up to 60 MPH and isolated higher gusts possible. Other areas of Eastern New England could see wind gusts up to 50 MPH. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this storm throughout the duration of the event. It is noted that this storm is coinciding with SKYWARN Recognition Day (SRD) and the WX1BOX Amateur Radio team will make a best effort to continue to support this event per current plans with the understanding that storm operations will take precedence and an updated SRD message will be sent later this evening..

Models are depicting a potentially significant storm to affect the Mid-Atlantic and New England late Friday Night through Sunday Morning. That being said there is larger than normal spread in the guidance in terms of track and intensity and where intensification occurs which will have significant impacts to the forecast. Key factors include:

1.) How the jet streams phase and does that occur close enough to Southern New England. Some of the reliable model guidance certainly depicts that to be close to Southern New England for significant impacts. At this time, the eastern trend has halted and has trended back a bit west along with pretty much all model guidance calling for significant impacts from this storm.
2.) The higher terrain areas will have the potential to experience the most snow. What areas of the higher terrain and whether its Northwest Massachusetts or more towards North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts possibly extending into Northwest Rhode Island, Northern Connecticut and other interior parts of Eastern Massachusetts will be determined in future model runs. There is the potential for high snowfall rates of 2-3″ per hour and with the potential for heavy wet snow, there is an increased risk for numerous trees and wires down and numerous power outages wherever this band sets up and where snow is 4″ or more in the area.
3.) The intensity of the winds will be determined by the track, speed and intensity of the storm system. Currently inland wind gusts are expected to be 40-50 MPH with isolated higher gusts and wind gusts of 50-60 MPH with isolated higher wind gusts across coastal Southern New England. This represents an increase in the wind potential since the last update.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this storm throughout the duration of the event. It is noted that this storm is coinciding with SKYWARN Recognition Day (SRD) and the WX1BOX Amateur Radio team will make a best effort to continue to support this event per current plans with the understanding that storm operations will take precedence and an updated SRD message will be sent later this evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 1030 PM Friday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch Statement, High Wind Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Snowfall and Rainfall Maps:

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Snowfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Boston/Norton Rainfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/crh/pqpf?sid=box

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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