Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday 8/27/20 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..The potential exists for a high-end severe weather outbreak over portions of Southwest Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island Thursday Afternoon and Evening with other areas north and east needing to monitor pending the position of the warm front, currently expected to be through at least West-Central Massachusetts and sufficient clearing for heating and destabilization over areas south and west of this warm front..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western to South-Central Massachusetts and Rhode Island in Enhanced Risk for Severe Weather with a slight risk for severe weather and surrounding the enhanced risk area, a marginal to slight risk of severe weather for the rest of Central and Eastern Massachusetts. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and isolated tornadoes are all potential threats..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will closely monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday with the timeframe anytime between 12-9 PM EDT..

After a one day reprieve in severe weather potential, a potentially high-end severe weather outbreak is possible over portions of Southern New England. The headlines depict current thinking. Key factors in this severe weather potential include:

1.) Position of the warm front and how far north and east it gets. The further north and east it gets, the greater the severe weather potential including the greater the risk across a larger portion of Southern New England. If the warm front remains south and west of the region, it would mute the severe weather potential. At this time the warm frontal position modeled best aligns with the slight to enhanced risk areas meaning the warm front should get through Southwest Massachusetts particularly along and south of the Mass Pike and just west of I-495 through Rhode Island and Connecticut.
2.) Sufficient heating and destabilization after warm frontal passage to allow for high instability.
3.) Wind shear parameters and parameters for rotation are high for this potential severe weather outbreak.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will closely monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday with the timeframe anytime between 12-9 PM EDT. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Thursday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200826_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Tuesday 8/25/20 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Scattered to Numerous Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely Tuesday presuming sufficient moisture and instability in the atmosphere associated with a strong cold front that will bring an end to the heat and humidity of the last few days. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a Slight Risk for Severe Weather across all of Southern New England. Timeframe is 12-8 PM Tuesday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will be active for the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening..

While less in coverage and intensity than this weekend, a few strong to severe thunderstorms developed over Southern New England this afternoon. The NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report on today’s severe weather event is listed below and photos of the last 3 days of severe weather will be posted today:

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Monday 8/24/20 Severe Weather Event:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2008250201.nwus51.html

Not much change to the headlines regarding Tuesday’s severe weather potential. SPC had considered an enhanced risk upgrade for Southern New England but is holding off at this time as it remains unclear how much strong to severe thunderstorm coverage there will be. This could still happen as we get into this afternoon. While the greatest potential maybe across Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts, the slight risk area covers all of New England and all areas should monitor.

Tuesday, a strong cold front will swing through New England and with it bring a more widespread potential for strong to severe thunderstorms across all of New England. The headlines depict the current thinking and the caveats to the potential for more widespread severe weather for Tuesday. Key factors include:

1.) Timing of the cold front to allow for sufficient heating and destabilization.
2.) Amount of mid-level dry air in the atmosphere and moisture convergence as there needs to be sufficient moisture in the atmosphere for severe thunderstorm development and to sustain updrafts.
3.) Wind shear profiles will be the strongest of the last few days and will need to be monitored if sufficient heating, destabilization and moisture are available for more widespread pockets of wind damage from strong to severe thunderstorms.
4.) There is some cloud cover and a dying area of showers that will slow heating slightly but satellite imagery indicates rapid clearing behind it. Provided moisture remains in place and heating returns as expected, this should allow for scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms in the region.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will be active for the severe weather potential for Tuesday. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Special Weather Statement on Severe Weather Potential, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement – Severe Weather Potential:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday 8/25/20 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Scattered to Numerous Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely Tuesday presuming sufficient moisture and instability in the atmosphere associated with a strong cold front that will bring an end to the heat and humidity of the last few days. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a Slight Risk for Severe Weather across all of Southern New England. Timeframe is 12-8 PM Tuesday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will be active for the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening..

While less in coverage and intensity than this weekend, a few strong to severe thunderstorms developed over Southern New England this afternoon. The NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report on today’s severe weather event is listed below and photos of the last 3 days of severe weather will be posted this evening:

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Monday 8/24/20 Severe Weather Event:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2008250201.nwus51.html

Tuesday, a strong cold front will swing through New England and with it bring a more widespread potential for strong to severe thunderstorms across all of New England. The headlines depict the current thinking and the caveats to the potential for more widespread severe weather for Tuesday. Key factors include:

1.) Timing of the cold front to allow for sufficient heating and destabilization.
2.) Amount of mid-level dry air in the atmosphere and moisture convergence as there needs to be sufficient moisture in the atmosphere for severe thunderstorm development and to sustain updrafts.
3.) Wind shear profiles will be the strongest of the last few days and will need to be monitored if sufficient heating, destabilization and moisture are available for more widespread pockets of wind damage from strong to severe thunderstorms.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will be active for the severe weather potential for Tuesday. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200824_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday 8/24/20 and Tuesday 8/25/20 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Another Round of Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely Monday Afternoon and evening across much of Southern New England away from the south coast of Mass and Rhode Island for Monday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. Threat timeframe is 2-8 PM EDT Monday Afternoon and Evening..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed most of Southern New England except for Southeast Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island in a marginal risk for severe weather for Monday..
..Scattered to Numerous strong to severe thunderstorms are likely Tuesday across all of New England with the same main threats as Monday but potentially more widespread than the last few days. SPC has all of New England in a Slight Risk for severe weather for Tuesday. Timeframe for severe weather potential Tuesday is from 2-8 PM EDT though could start as early as a 11 AM or 12 PM EDT Tuesday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will occur both Monday and Tuesday for the severe weather potential for Monday and Tuesday..

It has been an active weekend for severe weather for portions of Southern New England. We are working toward posting Facebook Photo Albums for both severe weather events today pending when the severe weather from today starts up. Pictures, video and reports from the severe weather events of Saturday 8/22 and Sunday 8/23 can be sent to the email address pics@nsradio.org or via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds with credit given to the SKYWARN Spotter/Amateur Radio report for the information unless otherwise indicated. The latest Local Storm Reports for the severe weather events of Saturday 8/22 and Sunday 8/23 are listed below:

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Saturday 8/22/20 Severe Weather Event:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2008222259.nwus51.html

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Sunday 8/23/20 Severe Weather Event:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2008241407.nwus51.html

In a similar setup to the weekend, another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely in portions of Southern New England today anytime between 2-8 PM EDT. While much of Southern New England is in a marginal risk for severe weather, an area within the marginal risk for severe weather with higher severe weather potential is area along and south of the Mass Pike but away from the south coast of Rhode Island and Massachusetts. All areas within the marginal risk area should continue to monitor today’s potential.

For Tuesday, a strong cold front will move through the area with higher wind shear profiles. The timing of the cold front is in question and could affect instability parameters but a more widespread severe weather event is likely on Tuesday. Cold frontal timing could increase the severe weather potential if its passage is later in the afternoon. SPC has placed the area in a slight risk for severe weather for Tuesday given the potential for more widespread coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will occur both Monday and Tuesday for the severe weather potential for Monday and Tuesday. The next coordination message focusing on the Tuesday severe weather potential will be posted by 1030 PM Monday evening pending how the Monday severe weather potential evolves. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2008241308.wwus81.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Sunday 8/23/20 and Tuesday 8/25/20 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms likely this Sunday afternoon and evening from 230-900 PM EDT across much of Southern New England particularly from Northern Connecticut, Northern Rhode Island and Massachusetts from Norfolk County Mass north and west. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..Post Storm report on Saturday 8/22/20 severe weather event will be posted on Monday 8/24/20..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions this Sunday Afternoon and Evening. It is noted that there is another potentially even greater severe weather threat for Tuesday with a Slight Risk for Severe Weather for all of New England. Further Details on that severe weather potential will be posted on Monday. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook, SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion and SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1552.html

SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day3otlk_20200823_0730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday 8/22/20 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms have occurred in late morning through mid-afternoon today and may continue into late this afternoon and early evening across much of Southern New England. The Storm Prediction Center has placed has placed much of Southern New England north and east of the Cape Cod Canal in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation has been active and will continue to be active through late afternoon/early evening to monitor the strong to severe thunderstorm potential for the region. This will be the only coordination message as we continue into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion on today’s severe weather potential..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1546.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Post Tropical Storm Isaias Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday 8/4/20 Tropical Storm Isaias Impacts

Hello to all…

..The Facebook Photo Album has been updated with additional photos and the Amateur Radio report log has also been updated with additional reports and updates were made to the Power Outage headline with latest info on current state of power outages in Southern New England. We are continuing to take any reports and photos to add to the logs for the historical record. Remainder of this message is unchanged..
..Tropical Storm Isaias caused widespread pockets of tree, power line damage, some direct roof structural damage along with damage to homes from fallen trees and power outages particularly over Western and Central Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island with more scattered pockets of wind damage in Eastern Massachusetts. Sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with wind gusts of 50-60 MPH and isolated wind gusts to 70 MPH occurred across Southern New England. Several Tornado Warnings were issued in parts of Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut but no touchdowns have been confirmed as yet..
..At the height of the storm, close to 700,000 power were without power in Connecticut, around 240,000 in Massachusetts and 150,000 in Rhode Island. Across Southern New England, over 1,000,000 customers were without power at the height of the storm due to impacts from Tropical Storm Isaias. At the time of this coordination message, power was fully restored in Massachusetts and Rhode Island, but Connecticut still had 208,577 without power showing the extent of the damage across that state..
..Amateur Radio SKYWARN Nets were active especially across Western and Central Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island bringing a continuous flow of storm damage information, pictures and videos for situational awareness. Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters sent in reports, pictures and videos via the WX1BOX social media feeds and other means. We will still take photos and storm videos and will update the WX1BOX Facebook photo album posted through the end of this weekend and possibly beyond that time as needed. They can be sent over WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter social media feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the SKYWARN Spotter or Amateur Radio Operator unless otherwise indicated. These pictures and videos will be utilized for the historical record in the publication Storm Data and a subset utilized in a Tropical Storm Isaias storm recap video that will be posted in the early Fall..
..This coordination message will be updated as we continue to put together the complete Amateur Radio Log of reports and update any additional pictures into the WX1BOX Facebook Photo Album. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement on wind gusts, Local Storm Report on storm damage, Post Storm report on Isaias, WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log and WX1BOX Facebook Page Photo Album..

NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement – Wind Gust Information:
http://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/PNS_wind_gusts_isaias_1.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Storm Damage Reports:
http://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/LSR_storm_damage_isaias_1.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Post Storm Report – Isaias:
http://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/PSH_storm_damage_isaias_1.pdf

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log of Reports – Updated – 8/8/20:
http://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/reports_8_4_20_4.pdf

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Post Tropical Storm Isaias Coordination Message #1 – Isaias’ Impacts – Tuesday 8/4/20

Hello to all…

..Tropical Storm Isaias caused widespread pockets of tree, power line damage, some direct roof structural damage along with damage to homes from fallen trees and power outages particularly over Western and Central Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island with more scattered pockets of wind damage in Eastern Massachusetts. Sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with wind gusts of 50-60 MPH and isolated wind gusts to 70 MPH occurred across Southern New England. Several Tornado Warnings were issued in parts of Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut but no touchdowns have been confirmed as yet..
..At the height of the storm, close to 700,000 power were without power in Connecticut, around 240,000 in Massachusetts and 150,000 in Rhode Island. Across Southern New England, over 1,000,000 customers were without power at the height of the storm due to impacts from Tropical Storm Isaias..
..Amateur Radio SKYWARN Nets were active especially across Western and Central Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island bringing a continuous flow of storm damage information, pictures and videos for situational awareness. Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters sent in reports, pictures and videos via the WX1BOX social media feeds and other means. We will still take photos and storm videos and will update the WX1BOX Facebook photo album posted through the end of this weekend and possibly beyond that time as needed. They can be sent over WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter social media feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the SKYWARN Spotter or Amateur Radio Operator unless otherwise indicated. These pictures and videos will be utilized for the historical record in the publication Storm Data and a subset utilized in a Tropical Storm Isaias storm recap video that will be posted in the early Fall..
..This coordination message will be updated as we continue to put together the complete Amateur Radio Log of reports and update any additional pictures into the WX1BOX Facebook Photo Album. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement on wind gusts, Local Storm Report on storm damage, Post Storm report on Isaias, WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log and WX1BOX Facebook Page Photo Album..

NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement – Wind Gust Information:
http://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/PNS_wind_gusts_isaias_1.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Storm Damage Reports:
http://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/LSR_storm_damage_isaias_1.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Post Storm Report – Isaias:
http://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/PSH_storm_damage_isaias_1.pdf

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log of Reports – Version 1:
http://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/reports_8_4_20_3.pdf

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hurricane Isiais Coordination Message #4 – Tuesday 8/4/20-Wednesday AM 8/5/20 Impacts

Hello to all…

..Isaias reintensifies into a category-1 hurricane before landfall later tonight in Southeast North Carolina into Northeast South Carolina. Isaias will then hug the coast and track through the Eastern New Jersey, the New York City area and Western Connecticut and Western Massachusetts putting most of Southern New England in the strong to damaging wind and severe weather side of this system with tropical downpours and potential thunderstorms but overall less rainfall than the west side of the system..
..A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for all of Southern New England for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 50-60 MPH with isolated higher gusts possible along with 1-4″ of rain possible with the highest amounts in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut and in/near thunderstorms with heavy downpours. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages. Urban and poor drainage flooding is possible in areas that receive heavy downpours..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Southern New England in a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe weather with the area from Springfield to Amherst to Worcester south through Connecticut and Rhode Island in the slight risk area for the potential of damaging straightline winds from convective showers and thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes since we will be on the east side of the storm system..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for Hartford County Connecticut and Hampden, Hampshire and Franklin Counties of Massachusetts where the greatest risk of urban and poor drainage flooding is and the potential for small stream flooding and other larger streams and rivers could have strong in bank rises from the heavy rainfall..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will commence as required early Tuesday Morning lasting through Wednesday Morning with the peak of the worst conditions working west to east from late Tuesday Afternoon through early Wednesday Morning. ARES/RACES Groups should monitor the progress of Isaias and seek guidance from their local leadership on any activation plans as we get closer to this potential weather event..

Hurricane Isaias is a 85 MPH Category-1 hurricane approaching and affecting Northeast South Carolina and southeast North Carolina as of the 9 PM EDT Monday 8/3/20 Tropical Cyclone Update. The current track has landfall in Northeast South Carolina to Eastern North Carolina on late Monday Night or early Tuesday Morning. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors:

1.) The intensity of Isaias as Isaias is now a Category-1 hurricane and will make landfall in the Carolinas and then track through Western New England interacting with a frontal zone which will allow for Isaias to maintain tropical storm intensity levels as it moves through the region. This puts Southern New England in the strong to damaging wind area with the possibility for severe weather but less rainfall in most of the area except for parts of Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut and areas that received showery tropical downpours.
2.) Isaias will track here with increasing forward speed meaning the forward speed of motion can add on to sustained wind speeds and wind gusts in the area. This aspect will bear monitoring for the damaging wind potential.
3.) Isaias will be quick hitting with a 6-9 hour period of strong to damaging winds and potential for thunderstorms and convective tropical downpours bringing strong winds down to the surface along with the potential for a couple isolated tornadoes.
4.) The heaviest rainfall outside of localized areas that receive repeated convective heavy showers and downpours will be in the Flash Flood Watch area of Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut where 2-4″ of rain with isolated higher amounts are possible. This will raise the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and small stream flooding with larger rivers and streams experiencing sharp within bank rises.

Preparations for a tropical storm should be made and completed by late Monday Night into Tuesday Morning. If it turns out to be a weaker system impact, you will be that much more prepared if another tropical system has potential to affect the region later in the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which has already been very active.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor Isaias for local impacts Tuesday Afternoon into Wednesday Morning. The rough timeframe of worst conditions will be late Tuesday Afternoon into the early overnight hours of Wednesday Morning but some deteriorating conditions could start as early as Tuesday Morning with lingering conditions to around daybreak Wednesday Morning depending on track, speed and intensity. Another coordination message on Isaias will be posted by 1030 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Hurricane Isaias Local Statement, Flash Flood Watch statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Facebook Infographics, Tropical Weather Safety Tips, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook, and National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory package including NHC Graphics:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Isaias Local Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Preparedness Week Public Information Statements:
http://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/pns_hurricane_preparedness_week_2020.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Safety Page:
https://www.weather.gov/box/hurricane_safety

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200803_1730.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Isaias Public Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt34.KNHC.html

Hurricane Isaias Technical Discussion Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt44.KNHC.html

Hurricane Isaias Forecast/Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt24.KNHC.html

Hurricane Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font14.KNHC.html

Hurricane Isaias Key Messages:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/092753.shtml?key_messages#contents

Hurricane Isaias Storm Graphics:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/092753.shtml?cone#contents

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Tropical Storm Isaias Coordination Message #3 – Tuesday 8/4/20-Wednesday Morning 8/5/20 Storm Impacts

Hello to all…

..Tropical Storm Isaias is expected to intensify into a category-1 hurricane before landfall in Southeast North Carolina into Northeast South Carolina. Isaias will then hug the coast and track through the Eastern New Jersey, the New York City area and Western Connecticut and Western Massachusetts putting most of Southern New England in the strong to damaging wind and severe weather side of this system with tropical downpours and potential thunderstorms but overall less rainfall than the west side of the system..
..A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for all of Southern New England for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 50-60 MPH with isolated higher gusts possible along with 1-3″ of rain possible with the highest amounts in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut and in/near thunderstorms with heavy downpours. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages. Urban and poor drainage flooding is possible in areas that receive heavy downpours..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Southern New England in a Marginal Risk for severe weather with a possible upgrade to Slight Risk in later outlooks for the potential of damaging straightline winds from convective showers and thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes since we will be on the east side of the storm system..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will commence as required early Tuesday Morning lasting through Wednesday Morning with the peak of the worst conditions working west to east from late Tuesday Afternoon through early Wednesday Morning. ARES/RACES Groups should monitor the progress of Isaias and seek guidance from their local leadership on any activation plans as we get closer to this potential weather event..

Tropical Storm Isaias is a 70 MPH tropical storm approaching Northeast South Carolina and southeast North Carolina and is expected to intensify into a minimal Category-1 hurricane as of the 8 AM EDT Monday 8/3/20 advisory. The current track has landfall in Northeast South Carolina to Eastern North Carolina on late Monday Night. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors:

1.) The intensity of Isaias as Isaias is forecast to strengthen into a minimal Category-1 hurricane before landfall in the Carolinas and then track through Western New England. This puts Southern New England in the strong to damaging wind area with the possibility for severe weather but less rainfall in most of the area except for parts of Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut and areas that received showery tropical downpours.
2.) Isaias will track here with increasing forward speed meaning the forward speed of motion can add on to sustained wind speeds and wind gusts in the area. This aspect will bear monitoring for the damaging wind potential.
3.) Isaias will be quick hitting with a 6-9 hour period of strong to damaging winds and potential for thunderstorms and convective tropical downpours bringing strong winds down to the surface along with the potential for a couple isolated tornadoes.

Preparations for a tropical storm should be made and completed by late Monday Night into Tuesday Morning. If it turns out to be a weaker system impact, you will be that much more prepared if another tropical system has potential to affect the region later in the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which has already been very active.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor Isaias for local impacts Tuesday Afternoon into Wednesday Morning. The rough timeframe of worst conditions will be late Tuesday Afternoon into the early overnight hours of Wednesday Morning but some deteriorating conditions could start as early as Tuesday Morning with lingering conditions to around daybreak Wednesday Morning depending on track, speed and intensity. Another coordination message on Isaias will be posted by 1030 PM Monday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Tropical Storm Isaias Local Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Facebook Infographics, Tropical Weather Safety Tips, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook, and National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory package including NHC Graphics:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Tropical Storm Isaias Local Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Facebook Infographics:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.3170984442995905/3170983612995988/?type=3&theater

NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Preparedness Week Public Information Statements:
http://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/pns_hurricane_preparedness_week_2020.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Safety Page:
https://www.weather.gov/box/hurricane_safety

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt34.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Isaias Technical Discussion Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt44.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast/Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt24.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font14.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Isaias Key Messages:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/092753.shtml?key_messages#contents

Tropical Storm Isaias Storm Graphics:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/092753.shtml?cone#contents

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

1 2 3 4 152