Storm Coordination Message #2 – Monday 11/18/19 Coastal Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Coastal storm will bring a period of icing to portions of the interior, periods of rain with rainfall amounts of 0.50-1.5″ with isolated higher amounts possible, strong winds along the immediate coast and a period of minor coastal flooding at the time of the Monday Afternoon high tide..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until 12 PM Monday for Eastern Franklin and Northern Worcester Counties of Massachusetts for a light glaze of icing. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until 6 AM Tuesday Morning for Western Franklin and Western Hampshire Counties of Massachusetts for a light glaze to a few hundredths of an inch of ice and a coating to an inch of snow ..
..A Wind Advisory remains in effect through 5 PM Monday Evening for Cape Cod and the Islands except Block Island RI where the advisory is in effect until 2 PM Monday Afternoon for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. Areas just outside of the Wind Advisory in Southeast Coastal New England may gust to around 40 MPH today. The winds may cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. The lack of leaves on the trees should reduce the impact of these winds..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect from 2-5 PM Monday Afternoon for Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, Eastern Plymouth, Barnstable Counties and Nantucket Island for minor coastal flooding of most vulnerable shore roads at the time of high tide Monday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the various facets of this storm early Monday Morning through Monday Evening..

A coastal storm will track close enough to Southern New England to bring some light icing to some interior locations, a period of rainfall to much of Southern New England, strong winds at the coast and minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide along East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands. The headlines depict the latest thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Wind should gust to Wind Advisory levels across Cape Cod and the Islands with wind gusts around 40 MPH possible along southeast coastal New England.
2.) Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for the Northern and Western parts of Massachusetts for light icing. Along the east slopes of the Berkshires this could extend into early Tuesday Morning. Winter Weather Advisories for other parts of the area north and west of Boston to Providence expired at 9 AM ET.
3.) Minor coastal flooding along the most vulnerable shore road areas is possible and will bear watching during the Monday Afternoon high tide cycle.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the various facets of this storm early Monday Morning through Monday Evening. This will be the last message on this storm event unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Weather Advisory statement, Wind Advisory statement, Coastal Flood Advisory statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Monday 11/18/19 Coastal Storm

Hello to all…

..Coastal storm will bring a period of icing to portions of the interior, periods of rain with rainfall amounts of 0.50-1.5″ with isolated higher amounts possible, strong winds along the immediate coast and a period of minor coastal flooding at the time of the Monday Afternoon high tide..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from Midnight to Noon on Monday for Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester, Northern and Central Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for freezing rain and icing accumulations of up to one-tenth inch. This will have the potential to create hazardous travel conditions..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 1 AM to 5 PM Monday for Block Island RI, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket Island for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. Cape Cod should see wind gusts of up to 40-45 MPH and depending on the track could see advisory level wind gusts and if the track is a bit closer and those stronger winds can materialize, Wind Advisories could be expanded to this area. The winds may cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. The lack of leaves on the trees should reduce the impact of these winds..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 2-5 PM Monday Afternoon for Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, Eastern Plymouth, Barnstable Counties and Nantucket Island for minor coastal flooding of most vulnerable shore roads at the time of high tide Monday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the various facets of this storm early Monday Morning through Monday Evening..

A coastal storm will track close enough to Southern New England to bring some light icing to some interior locations, a period of rainfall to much of Southern New England, strong winds at the coast and minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide along East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands. The headlines depict the latest thinking. Key factors include:

1.) The storm track as a slightly closer storm track could have stronger winds over Cape Cod and this will be monitored.
2.) Some areas just outside of the Winter Weather Advisory area in the Connecticut River Valley and Northeast Massachusetts may also experience icing conditions and require Winter Weather advisories. This aspect will be monitored.
3.) Minor coastal flooding along the most vulnerable shore road areas is possible and will bear watching during the Monday Afternoon high tide cycle.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the various facets of this storm early Monday Morning through Monday Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 10 PM Sunday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Weather Advisory statement, Wind Advisory statement, Coastal Flood Advisory statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #2 – Strong to Damaging Wind and Heavy Rainfall Potential Thursday Evening 10/31/19-Friday Morning 11/1/19

Hello to all…

..Strong Cold front on track to swing through Southern New England late Halloween Night through Friday Morning bringing a period of heavy rainfall and strong to damaging winds to the region..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 11 PM Thursday Night to 8 AM Friday Morning for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island including Bristol County Rhode Island and Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and isolated higher gusts possible. These winds will cause scattered pockets of tree and power line damage and scattered power outages..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 11 PM Thursday Night to 6 AM Friday Morning for North-Central Rhode Island and all of Eastern Massachusetts including the Metro Boston Area, North Shore and Northeast Massachusetts for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and isolated higher gusts possible. These winds will cause scattered pockets of tree and power line damage and scattered power outages..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 9 PM Thursday Night to 4 AM Friday Morning for Hartford and Tolland Counties of Connecticut and Eastern Hampshire and Eastern Hampden Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and isolated higher gusts possible. These winds will cause scattered pockets of tree and power line damage and scattered power outages..
..A Wind Advisory is in effect from 8 PM Thursday to 12 PM Friday for the remainder of the NWS Norton Coverage Area for sustained winds of 15-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH and higher gusts possible. These winds could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..Rainfall is forecast to be a bit less than originally forecast but amounts of 0.25-1.50″ are likely across much of Southern New England. This is unlikely to cause any widespread flooding issues but nuisance localized urban or poor drainage flooding is possible in areas that have the highest rainfall amounts..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this storm system..

A strong cold front is on track to sweep through the region overnight into early Friday Morning. It will bring a period of rain with some convective showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two but more importantly the threat for strong to damaging winds across Southern New England. The headlines depict the current thinking on the strength of the winds. Key factors on the strong to damaging wind potential include:

1.) If temperatures are able to reach 70 degrees or slightly higher, this will allow for the strong to damaging winds to reach the surface more readily.
2.) Any convective showers or possible thunderstorms will have the ability to bring stronger winds down to the surface and will be monitored closely overnight.
3.) The strongest and most damaging winds are expected in the overnight period between 12 AM-5 AM though there will be some strong winds before and after this timeframe given the strong wind fields ahead of the front in the warm air and then with the cold air moving in behind the front.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this storm system. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 PM EDT this Thursday evening if any change to the SKYWARN Activation posture or change in wind headlines occur and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Thursday Night 10/31/19-Friday Morning 11/1/19 Strong to Damaging Wind and Heavy Rainfall Potential

Hello to all…

..Strong Cold front will swing through Southern New England late Halloween Night through Friday Morning bringing a period of heavy rainfall and strong to damaging winds to the region..
..A High Wind Watch is in effect from Thursday Evening to Friday Morning for Cape Cod and the Islands, Bristol, Plymouth, Norfolk and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts and Rhode Island except for Northwest Providence County RI for sustained winds 20 to 30 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH possible. These winds could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered power outages..
..A Wind Advisory is in effect from 8 PM Thursday to 12 PM Friday for the remainder of the NWS Norton Coverage Area for sustained winds of 15-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. These winds could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..Soaking rainfall of 0.50-2.00″ is likely across much of Southern New England. This is unlikely to cause any widespread flooding issues but nuisance localized urban or poor drainage flooding is possible in areas that have the highest rainfall amounts..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this storm system. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM EDT Thursday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch/Wind Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch/Wind Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&product=NPW&issuedby=BOX

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Storm Coordination Message #2 – Sunday 10/26/19 Heavy Rain/Strong Wind/Minor Coastal Flooding Potential

Hello to all…

..Storm system on track to bring a period of strong winds to Southeast Coastal areas and a soaking rainfall to much of Southern New England. High astronomical tides and onshore winds will bring minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide to some locations Sunday Evening and could extend into later portions of the week. This message represents a quick update to current thinking with few changes..
..A Wind Advisory remains in effect from 2 to 10 PM Sunday Afternoon and Evening for Cape Cod and the Islands including Block Island Rhode Island for sustained winds of 20-25 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. These winds could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. Coastal areas near the advisory area could see wind gusts up to 40-45 MPH during this timeframe. Westerly, RI has had wind gusts between 40-43 MPH between 9 and 11 AM this morning..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 4 to 10 PM Sunday Afternoon and Evening for Eastern Kent, Bristol, Newport and Washington Counties Rhode Island for minor coastal flooding on the most vulnerable shore roads in this area at the time of the Sunday Evening high tide cycle. Any reports of coastal flooding along these vulnerable shore roads would be appreciated..
..Soaking rainfall of 0.50-2.00″ is likely across much of Southern New England. This is unlikely to cause any widespread flooding issues but nuisance localized urban or poor drainage flooding is possible in areas that have the highest rainfall amounts..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this storm system. This will be the last coordination message on this storm system. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Sunday 10/26/19 Heavy Rain/Strong Wind/Minor Coastal Flooding Potential

Hello to all…

..Storm system will bring a period of strong winds to Southeast Coastal areas and a soaking rainfall to much of Southern New England. High astronomical tides and onshore winds will bring minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide to some locations Sunday Evening and could extend into later portions of the week..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 2 to 10 PM Sunday Afternoon and Evening for Cape Cod and the Islands including Block Island Rhode Island for sustained winds of 20-25 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH. These winds could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. Coastal areas near the advisory area could see wind gusts up to 40 MPH during this timeframe..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 4 to 10 PM Sunday Afternoon and Evening for Eastern Kent, Bristol, Newport and Washington Counties Rhode Island for minor coastal flooding on the most vulnerable shore roads in this area at the time of the Sunday Evening high tide cycle. Any reports of coastal flooding along these vulnerable shore roads would be appreciated..
..Soaking rainfall of 0.50-2.00″ is likely across much of Southern New England. This is unlikely to cause any widespread flooding issues but nuisance localized urban or poor drainage flooding is possible in areas that have the highest rainfall amounts..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this storm system. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Sunday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Storm Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday Night 10/16/19-Thursday 10/17/19 Coastal Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Strong Coastal Storm system brings the threat of heavy rainfall, strong to damaging winds and even isolated strong to severe thunderstorms to Southern New England Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning with the potential of strong to damaging winds continuing through late Thursday Afternoon..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts in a marginal risk for severe weather with strong to damaging winds and perhaps even the low risk of an isolated, brief tornado for late tonight and early Thursday Morning..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 1 AM to 5 PM Thursday for Cape Cod and the Islands, Eastern Essex and Eastern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60-65 MPH. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 10 PM Wednesday Evening to 6 PM Thursday Evening for the rest of the NWS Boston/Norton coverage area including Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island, Western, Central and the remainder of Eastern Massachusetts for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts possible. These winds will cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect from 10 PM Wednesday Evening through Thursday Morning for Northern Connecticut, and Western and Central Massachusetts for rainfall of 2-3″ with locally higher amounts of up to 5″ possible. This rainfall may cause significant urban and poor drainage flooding. Due to recent dry conditions, most if not all small rivers and streams will remain in their banks..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm system overnight and during the day Thursday. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible but would be focused on daytime operations as needed with overnight activity monitored by self-activation. It is most likely we will use SKYWARN Self-Activation and remote monitoring of repeaters for rainfall reports, wind damage and wind gust measurement reports and any flooding reports..

A strong coastal storm system will cause heavy rainfall and strong to damaging winds across much of Southern New England with even the risk of isolated severe thunderstorms in Southeast New England with strong to damaging winds and an isolated brief tornado as potential threats. The heavy rainfall will be during the overnight hours and end near or before the Thursday Morning commute with the severe weather risk late tonight into early Thursday Morning before daybreak. The strong to damaging winds will occur overnight and again during the day on Thursday lasting into the late afternoon/early evening. The headlines depict current thinking with the key changes being a High Wind Warning for Cape Cod and the Islands, Eastern Plymouth and Eastern Essex Counties of Massachusetts, the expansion of the Wind Advisory across the entire NWS Boston/Norton Coverage area and a Flood Watch for Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut. Key factors include:

1.) Winds overnight could be strong to damaging and enhanced by convective heavy downpours and thunderstorms that can drag strong to damaging winds down to the surface and there is even the potential for isolated severe thunderstorms with even the risk of an isolated brief tornado in Southeast New England hence the marginal risk for severe weather in this area.
2.) Strong to damaging winds will occur on the back side of the storm system as it moves away from the area as well. The track of the storm system over Southern New England and the potential for more areas to be exposed to the east side of the system has resulted in the Wind Advisory expansion as well as a conversion to High Wind Warnings for Cape Cod and the Islands and expanding those warnings into Eastern Essex and Eastern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts.
3.) Understanding that the rainfall did not materialize from last week’s nor’easter, the track of this storm is very different and tracking over Southern New England increasing confidence for heavy rainfall. Given recent dry conditions, flooding should be confined to urban and poor drainage areas but could be widespread enough to cause an impact so a flood watch has been issued for this hazard.
4.) With such a strong and dynamic system, it will bear close watching for higher impacts assuming the fully intensity modeled is realized and based on track guidance.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm system overnight and during the day Thursday. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible but would be focused on daytime operations as needed with overnight activity monitored by self-activation. It is most likely we will use SKYWARN Self-Activation and remote monitoring of repeaters for rainfall reports, wind damage and wind gust measurement reports and any flooding reports. This will be the last complete coordination message for this storm system. A shortened coordination message will be posted if Ops at NWS are initiated and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Flood Watch Statement, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday Night 10/16/19-Thursday Late Afternoon 10/17/19 Coastal Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Strong Coastal Storm system brings the threat of heavy rainfall, strong to damaging winds and even isolated strong to severe thunderstorms to Southern New England Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning with the potential of strong to damaging winds continuing through late Thursday Afternoon..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts in a marginal risk for severe weather with strong to damaging winds and perhaps even the low risk of an isolated, brief tornado for late tonight and early Thursday Morning..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands for Thursday Morning into Thursday Afternoon with a Wind Advisory in effect from 10 PM Wednesday Evening to 7 AM Thursday Morning for sustained winds 25-35 MPH with gusts to 50-55 MPH overnight and potentially as high as 60 MPH with isolated higher gusts Thursday. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 10 PM Wednesday Evening to 6 PM Thursday Evening for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island including Eastern Kent County Rhode Island for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts possible. These winds will cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from Midnight to 6 PM Thursday for Eastern Essex, Southeast Middlesex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk and Eastern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 55 MPH and isolated higher gusts. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 7 AM to 5 PM Thursday for Western Essex, Southern Worcester, Western Plymouth, Central Middlesex, Western Norfolk and Northern Bristol Counties of Massachusetts and Providence and Western Kent Counties of Rhode Island for sustained winds of 15-20 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH and isolated higher gusts possible. These winds will cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..Heavy Rainfall of 1-3″ is expected across much of Southern New England with isolated higher amounts of 3-4″ possible in localized areas. This rainfall may cause areas of localized urban and poor drainage flooding in most prone areas..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm system overnight and during the day Thursday. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible but would be focused on daytime operations as needed with overnight activity monitored by self-activation..

A strong coastal storm system will cause heavy rainfall and strong to damaging winds across much of Southern New England with even the risk of isolated severe thunderstorms in Southeast New England with strong to damaging winds and an isolated brief tornado as potential threats. The heavy rainfall will be during the overnight hours and end near or before the Thursday Morning commute with the severe weather risk late tonight into early Thursday Morning before daybreak. The strong to damaging winds will occur overnight and again during the day on Thursday lasting into the late afternoon/early evening. The headlines depict current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Winds overnight could be strong to damaging and enhanced by convective heavy downpours and thunderstorms that can drag strong to damaging winds down to the surface and there is even the potential for isolated severe thunderstorms with even the risk of an isolated brief tornado in Southeast New England hence the marginal risk for severe weather in this area.
2.) Strong to damaging winds will occur on the back side of the storm system as it moves away from the area as well. The track of the storm system over Southern New England and the potential for more areas to be exposed to the east side of the system could allow for winds even higher than currently listed in the headlines of this message and will be watched closely.
3.) Strong winds could occur on Thursday as the storm departs across Western New England and this will be monitored and could result in Wind Advisory headlines.
4.) Understanding that the rainfall did not materialize from last week’s nor’easter, the track of this storm is very different and tracking over Southern New England increasing confidence for heavy rainfall. Given recent dry conditions, flooding should be confined to urban and poor drainage areas.
5.) With such a strong and dynamic system, it will bear close watching for higher impacts assuming the fully intensity modeled is realized and based on track guidance.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm system overnight and during the day Thursday. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible but would be focused on daytime operations as needed with overnight activity monitored by self-activation. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 PM EDT Wednesday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch/Wind Advisory Statement, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch/Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Storm Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday Evening 10/9/19-Friday 10/11/19 Coastal Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Long Duration Coastal Storm to Affect Southern New England starting late Wednesday Afternoon with some strong winds in gusts to around 40 MPH with stronger and more damaging winds, heavy rainfall and coastal flooding possible to likely particularly in Southeast New England Thursday into Friday..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 2 AM Thursday Morning through 600 AM Friday Morning for Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and isolated higher gusts likely. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts from 2 AM Thursday Morning through 6 AM Friday Morning for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. These winds could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages. Other coastal areas near the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory areas should closely monitor the strong to damaging wind potential with wind gusts of 40-45 MPH possible in areas closest to the wind headlines..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for Nantucket from 9 AM-12 PM Thursday for the Thursday Morning high tide cycle for the potential of minor coastal flooding at the time of the Thursday Morning high tide cycle..
..A Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect from Thursday Evening through late Thursday Night for Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands from Thursday Evening through late Thursday Night for the potential of minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide Thursday Night..
..A Flood Watch is in effect for all of Southeast Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands and Norfolk and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts for a widespread 3-6″ of rain. Isolated higher amounts of up to 8″ are possible on Cape Cod and Plymouth County of Massachusetts with even some localized 10″ amounts possible. This will result in the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and possibly small river and stream flooding..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely with this storm with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets centered in Southeast Massachusetts. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible during the day Thursday..

A long duration coastal storm is expected to affect Southern New England starting Wednesday Evening through Friday. The headlines depict the latest thinking with a conversion of the High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning for Cape Cod and the Islands and a Wind Advisory for Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts and a Flood Watch now posted for Southeast Massachusetts. Key factors for this long duration storm is as follows:

1.) The storm intensity and interaction of the storm with high pressure to the north and the strength and area affected for strong to damaging winds. At this time the strongest winds are expected in Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. Coastal and perhaps some southeastern interior areas should closely monitor the progress of the strong to damaging winds. A closer track to the area could allow those winds to get stronger in those areas. With the expected very wet ground and stronger winds, the wind damage potential will bear watching.
2.) The storm track has held steady but all models are depicting the potential for very heavy rainfall for Southeast Massachusetts and the Flood Watch has been issued for that reason. Rainfall reports over the entire storm will be needed and flooding of urban and poor drainage areas are likely and perhaps also affecting rivers and small streams as well.
3.) The storm effects will last into Friday for both strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall and coastal flooding and this will be covered in future coordination messages. The worst conditions at this time are expected on Thursday during the day and at night.
4.) While astronomical tides are low, wave action and the possibility for multiple high tide cycles of strong to damaging winds, building seas and waves will allow for some minor to moderate coastal flooding in the north and east facing areas of Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. This is another aspect that will bear watching. It is noted the Thursday Morning high tide could bring minor coastal flooding to Nantucket and a Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect for that high tide for Nantucket.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible during the day Thursday. Another coordination message will be posted by 6 AM Thursday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory/Watch Statement, Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Advisory/Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Late Wednesday Afternoon 10/9/19-Friday 10/11/19 Coastal Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Long Duration Coastal Storm to Affect Southern New England starting late Wednesday Afternoon with some strong winds in gusts to around 40 MPH with stronger and more damaging winds, heavy rainfall and coastal flooding possible to likely particularly in Southeast New England Thursday into Friday..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect from Thursday Morning through late Thursday Night for Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH. These winds could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages. Other coastal areas near the High Wind Watch area should closely monitor the strong to damaging wind potential..
..A Coastal Flood Watch is now in effect from Thursday Evening through late Thursday Night for Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands from Thursday Evening through late Thursday Night for the potential of minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide Thursday Night..
..Heavy Rainfall of at least 1-3″ is possible in Southeast New England. Higher amounts are possible depending on the track, speed and intensity of the coastal storm..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible during the day Thursday..

A long duration coastal storm is expected to affect Southern New England starting late Wednesday Afternoon and lasting through Thursday Night and possibly into Friday. The headlines depict the latest thinking. Key factors for this long duration storm is as follows:

1.) The storm intensity and interaction of the storm with high pressure to the north and the strength and area affected for strong to damaging winds.
2.) The storm track which has been closer to Southern New England in recent model trends which could result in heavier rainfall in Southeast New England and the potential for stronger and more damaging winds in southeast New England with stronger winds potentially extending further north in Southern New England.
3.) The storm effects could last into Friday for both strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall and coastal flooding and this will be covered in future coordination messages.
4.) While astronomical tides are low, wave action and the possibility for multiple high tide cycles of strong to damaging winds, building seas and waves will allow for some minor to moderate coastal flooding in the north and east facing areas of Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. This is another aspect that will bear watching.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible during the day Thursday. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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