Storm Coordination Message #3 – September 6th, 2011 Flood Threat

Hello to all..

..Flash Flood Watch Cancelled for Western New England, however, a Flood Advisory is in effect until 845 AM for Urban and Small Stream flooding for Cheshire, and Northwest Hillsborough Counties of New Hampshire, Franklin, Western Hampshire and Hampden Counties. Flood threat for today through Wednesday appears to be confined to urban and poor drinage areas and to minor flooding of small streams. Rainfall totals between 2-5″ have occurred in Franklin County Massachusetts and Cheshire County New Hampshire but it has been spread out over a 30-hour period causing more minor flooding versus flash flooding. Isolated street flooding reports were received in Chesterfield New Hampshire Monday Evening. The rest of the region is expected to see rainfall under 2″ and other than brief urban/poor drainage flooding from any heavier downpours, flash flooding is no longer anticipated..
..Hurricane Katia is expected to stay well offshore of New England about 200-250 miles southeast of Nantucket Island. This means the only impacts to Southern New England will be in the form of high surf and dangerous rip currents later this week into the weekend. This will continue to be monitored and a coordination message posted when High Surf Advisories are posted..
..The remnants of Lee will be cutoff from the westerlies and won’t impact the region, if at all, until the weekend. The rainfall over portions of the region the past couple of days has been due to a slowing moving cold front drawing moisture northward but the remnants of Lee has largely reamined over the Southeast United States..
..This will be the last coordination message for this event unless new watches or warnings are issued. Flood Advisories may be issued over the next 24 to 36 hour period for urban/poor drainage flooding and minor small stream flooding. Please report any rainfall 2″ or more or rainfall 1″ or more in one hour and any flooding to NWS Taunton as required. SKYWARN Self-Activation will be utilized as required and Ops at NWS Taunton are currently not anticipated. Below is the NWS Taunton Flood Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Flood Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Storm Coordination Message #2 – September 6th, 2011 Flood Threat

Hello to all..

..Heavy Rainfall from showers and thunderstorms may cause flooding in parts of Southern New England..
..A Flash Food Watch remains in effect and has been extended to Tuesday Afternoon for Northern Connecticut, Western Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire. A slow moving cold front will push further east causing heavy rainfall in showers and thunderstorms and this slow moving cold front combined with moisture from Hurricane Irene from last week will cause the potential for flash flooding in the watch area. The region east of the Flash Flood Watch should monitor the potential for flooding but the issues will be greatest in the Flash Flood Watch area..
..Rainfall amounts from Sunday Evening to Monday Evening have been in the area of 1.5-3″ in portions of Western and Central Franklin County Massachusetts and 2-4″ in portions of Cheshire County NH per spotter reports. Some isolated flooding issues occurred in Chesterfield New Hampshire earlier this evening..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible Tuesday if areal county flood or flash flood warnings are issued. Another coordination message will be issued Tuesday by Noon to cover the threat particularly if Ops at NWS Taunton are required. Below is the NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Flood/Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday 9/5/11 Flood/Severe Weather Threat

Hello to all..

..Heavy Rainfall from showers and thunderstorms with a low probability of an isolated strong or severe thunderstorm later Monday Afternoon and Evening across portions of Southern New England..
..A Flash Food Watch is in effect from 2 PM Monday Afternoon through Tuesday Morning for Northern Connecticut, Western Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire. A slow moving cold front will push further east causing heavy rainfall in showers and thunderstorms and this slow moving cold front combined with moisture from Hurricane Irene from last week will cause the potential for flash flooding in the watch area. The region east of the Flash Flood Watch should monitor the potential for flooding but the issues will be greatest in the Flash Flood Watch area..
..If enough instability develops, an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm could occur in interior Southern New England with damaging wind and large hail but the main threat with thunderstorms will be heavy rainfall..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible this afternoon and evening or into Tuesday Morning depending on the heavy rainfall threat and if areal county flood warnings are issued. Another coordination message will be issued this evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook..

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Sunday September 4th, 2011 Potential Severe Weather/Flood Threat

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible over interior Southern New England especially in Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut. Damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..Threat region is mostly centered through New York State into Northern New England where the Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has placed this area in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather but if sufficient heating and destabilization can occur, interior Southern New England, particularly Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut could experience isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. Doppler Radar currently shows a line of strong to severe thunderstorms over Northeastern New York and Satellite imagery shows low clouds and fog over parts of New England that should burn off later this morning allowing heating and destabilization..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely particularly in Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut for later this afternoon and evening. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible if the threat is widespread enough. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Sunday September 4th, 2011 Potential Severe Weather/Flood Threat

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible in interior Southern New England particularly in Southwest New Hampshire and Western Massachusetts Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Damaging Wind, Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has placed the region just west of the NWS Taunton Coverage Area in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather..
..Instability should be prevalent over the region but wind shear profiles will be quite weak which should keep strong to severe thunderstorms more isolated. If thunderstorms form as expected and are strong enough, they could be slow moving and training thunderstorms which may increase the urban/poor drainage flood threat in those areas affected by slow-moving thunderstorms that track over the same area..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Sunday Afternoon and Evening. The next coordination message will be posted by Noon Sunday. Below is the NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook..

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1109031731.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Post-Hurricane Irene Coordination Message #2

Hello to all..

..New England Continues its Recovery from Hurricane/Tropical Storm Irene. Power Outages numbers in Massachusetts dipped below 100,000 for the first time this week and power outage numbers in Rhode Island and Connecticut continue to decline. Most areas will receive power back on Friday with isolated areas not receiving power back until Sunday, nearly a week after Irene’s impact..
..Pictures and Video of damage and flooding can still be very useful for damage assessment efforts by local, state and federal emergency management and post storm reports issued by the National Weather Service. Of particular interest now are pictures of any road washouts and bridge issues over Western Massachusetts or any pictures of flooding from those areas. Please send by either a reply to this note or via the pics at nsradio.org email address. Credit will be given to the person that took the pictures and/or video as its shared with various agencies and the media..
..Also, SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators that have weather stations that log data are asked to send a dump of their weather station data if their winds exceeded a 50 MPH gust or if there rainfall was 4″ or more over their area. This can also be sent to the same email address as pictures..
..Another post-Hurricane Irene Coordination Message will be posted this weekend. Below is an archive of the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report and Public Information Statement highlighting the damage, flooding and wind measurement and rainfall totals from Irene’s impact on the region..

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://www.wx1box.org/local/LSR_8_28_11.txt

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement:
http://www.wx1box.org/local/pns_8_29_11.txt

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Post-Hurricane Irene Coordination Message #1

Hello to all..

..New England Slowly Recovers from the impact of Hurricane/Tropical Storm Irene as it causes widespread tree and wire damage, structural damage to buildings due to fallen trees and isolated structural damage to homes and businesses. Flooding and flash flooding were also significant issues in western and northern parts of New England. Several hundred thousand remain without power across New England from the impacts of Irene..
..Pictures and Video of damage and flooding can still be very useful in the damage assessment efforts being completed by local, state and federal emergency management and can help the warning process for the National Weather Service. Please send by either a reply to this note or via pics at nsradio.org email address. Credit will be given to the person who took the pictures and/or video as its shared with various agencies and the media..
..Another post-Hurricane Irene Coordination Message will be posted Tuesday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report and Public Information Statement highlighting the damage, flooding, wind measurement and rain totals form Irene’s impact on the region..

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nwus51.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nous41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Hurricane Irene Statement – WX1BOX on Social Media – Special Reporting and Safety Tips from Amateur Radio Coordinators at the National Hurricane Center

Hello to all..

The following is a Hurricane Irene Statement on WX1BOX on social media and special reporting guidelines and safety tips from the Amateur Radio Coordinators at the National Hurricane Center. Special thanks to Amateur Radio Assistant Coordinator at the National Hurricane Center Amateur Radio Station, WX4NHC, Julio Ripoll-WD4R for providing this information.

First of all, WX1BOX is on both Twitter and Facebook. Look for us by doing a facebook or Twitter search for WX1BOX. This is a means to get storm updates and to share storm reports and pictures with us. Our facebook page can be seen via the following link:

http://www.facebook.com/#!/pages/Wx1box-National-Weather-Service-Taunton-Amateur-Radio-Skywarn-Group/216287391738620

Please adhere to the following safety tips provided by Julio Ripoll-WD4R:

Please emphasize that all operators should make necessary preparations to secure their homes and families first and take precautions for themselves seriously. Do not take any risks in trying to collect weather data. Even a CAT-1 is a dangerous Hurricane. Wind driven debris can cause serious injuries. Fallen electrical lines may not be visible and can cause electrocution even underwater. Storm Surge and Flash Floods are the major cause of death in hurricanes.

In terms of reporting criteria on Amateur Radio SKYWARN Nets, the standard SKYWARN reporting criteria is sufficient. Report damage to trees and wires, structural damage, measured wind gusts 40 MPH or greater. Report any river, stream flooding. Urban flooding should be reported when 6″ or more of water are covering at least one travel lane or the entire roadway. In terms of wind measurements, the wind direction and sustained wind along with the peak gust is very useful provided the wind gust is 40 MPH or greater. Noting the lowest barometric pressure reading is also helpful and any measured rainfall 2″ or more and every 1″ thereafter and any rainfall of 1″ or more per hour (not rainfall rate but an actual accumulation of 1″ or more within an hour period).

Please send any pictures or video to this address either as an attachment or links to the pictures and video or you can also send the pictures to the email address pics at nsradio.org. These pictures will be sent to media, local, state and federal emergency management, the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center with credit given to the people that are sending the pictures and video.

On Amateur Radio SKYWARN Nets, please help with the following:

1.) Refrain from general reports of ‘its raining hard’ or ‘very windy’ here.
2.) Refrain from flooding reports that are under 6″ of water and not in the travel lane of the roadway.
3.) Reporting wind gusts or sustained winds that are not of at least 40 MPH.
4.) If you’ve had a wind gust of criteria of 40 MPH or higher or a sustained wind of 40 MPH, please make the next report when you’ve had another higher gust or sustained wind of higher magnitude and give the wind direction.

We appreciate everyone’s support and look forward to working with everyone during Hurricane Irene. Thanks to all for everyone’s support, stay safe and hopefully the damage from this Hurricane will not be as bad as its potential.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Hurricane Irene Coordination Message #7

Hello to all..

..Large Hurricane Irene Poised to Strike Southern New England. Hurricane and Tropical Strom Warnings are now in effect across much of New England. Preparations to protect life and property should now be completed..
..A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Sagamore Beach Massachusetts through Cape Lookout North Carolina including all the islands of New York and Southern New England. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Southern Bristol, Southern Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes, and Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for Southeast Providence, Kent, Bristol, Washington, Newport Counties of Rhode Island including Block Island RI.
..A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from north of Sagamore Beach Massachusetts to the Merrimack River Massachusetts. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the remainder of Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut and has been expanded into Southern New Hampshire..
..A Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire NWS Taunton County Warning Area except for Cape Cod and the Islands from Saturday Evening through late Sunday Night..
..Isolated tornadoes will be possible in Southern New England along and east of the Irene’s track..
..Multiple Models are in agreement on a potential impact to Southern New England in the late Saturday to early Monday timeframe. The extent on specifics of impact are being better detailed now given the current track guidance have had strong run-to-run consistency. Heavy Rain, Damaging Tropical Storm to Hurricane Force Winds, and Coastal Flooding and Beach Erosion along the South Coast of New England remain potential threats. The impact is likely to be similar to Hurricane Gloria in 1985..
..The models are largely in great agreement on a track just off the Mid-Atlantic Coast into Western to Central Long Island and Western to Central Connecticut. This could pose a widespread wind damage threat to areas along and east of Irene’s track with heaviest rainfall along and to the west of the track..
..VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Nets and WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center are now active gathering reports from North Carolina, Virginia and the Mid-Atlantic Region..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 4 AM Sunday lasting through early Monday for impact of Large Hurricane Irene. The timeframe has been moved to 4 AM at the request of the National Weather Service in Taunton..
..ARES/RACES/MARS/EMCOMM Groups should closely monitor the progress of large Hurricane Irene and seek advise from local leadership on stand-by and deployment status for their area..
..A Special Reporting Criteria and Safety Message to encompass some of the items that WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, will be looking for will be sent after this coordination message..
..The first 5 paragraphs of this coordination message contain the most critical updates..

As of the 9 PM Saturday National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center Advisory package, Hurricane Warnings are in effect to include the area from Sagamore Beach Massachusetts to Watch Hill Rhode Island all the way down to Cape Lookout North Carolina. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Southern Bristol, Southern Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes, and Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for Southeast Providence, Kent, Bristol, Washington, Newport Counties of Rhode Island including Block Island RI. In the Hurricane Warning area, sustained high end tropical storm force winds of 50-60 MPH with hurricane force winds sustained or in gusts are likely to occur over the region. Hurricane force wind gusts of up to 80 MPH with isolated higher gusts will be possible. 2-4 inches of rain will be expected in this area with isolated higher amounts. Storm Surge flooding will occur across the south facing coastal locations with a 3-6 foot surge over portions of Cape Cod potentially reaching 4-7 feet in Narragansett and Buzzards Bays.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from north of Sagamore Beach to Merrimack River Massachusetts. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the remainder of Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut and has been expanded into Southern New Hampshire. In this area, sustained winds to tropical storm force with gusts to high end tropical storm force are expected in the area. Isolated hurricane force wind gusts will be possible. Sustained tropical storm force winds of 40-60 MPH with gusts to 70 MPH are likely with possible higher gusts to 75-80 MPH. There is likely to be 5 to 10 inches of rainfall with isolated higher amounts in this region particularly in Western and Central Massachusetts and into Southern New Hampshire.

A Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire NWS Taunton County Warning Area except for Cape Cod and the Islands for Saturday Evening through late Sunday Night. Heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated higher amounts is expected to cause widespread minor to moderate flooding of rivers and streams along with potentially significant urban and poor drainage flooding. The exact heavy axis of rain is likely to be over Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut but could also make it into Central and Northeast areas depending on Irene’s exact track. To the west of the track, 1-4″ of rain with isolated higher amounts are possible.

The track guidance is in good agreement on a track just offshore of the mid-atlantic coast into the New York City area to possibly Western and Central Long Island New York and then into Western and Central Connecticut. This will put portions of Central and much of Eastern Masaschusetts, Rhode Island, and Eastern Connecticut on the damaging wind side of the hurricane. Potentially widespread damaging winds to trees and power lines are likely with pockets of wind damage on the west side of the storm track with very heavy rainfall. Isolated Tornadoes are possible along and to the east of Irene’s track. The impact is expected to be similar to Hurricane Glorida in 1985.

Also, it is noted that there will be very high wind speeds at 1000 feet and higher. Higher elevation locations across the region along with coastal areas will be the most prone locations to significant wind damage to trees and wires. In addition, high rise buildings could also experience higher winds than those at ground level. Higher hill locations may also have potential for higher winds and wind damage.

The VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Nets along with WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center will be active all weekend. See their respective net links and the link to WX4NHC for details:

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

WX4NHC – Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org

High Surf conditions are affecting the New England coast. Swells and Rip Currents can be very dangerous to both the experienced and inexperienced swimmer. A rip current risk statement was reissued Friday Morning by NWS Taunton. See links below:

NWS Taunton High Surf Advisory/Rip Current Risk Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Surf Zone Forecast Information:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on&issuedby=BOX&product=SRF

Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of Hurricane Irene. People should continue reviewing and acting on their preparedness measures for tropical storm/hurricane force conditions and have these plans completed by Saturday Evening. This information has been provided via the Hurricane Preparedness Week Public Information Statements of Safety Tips via the link below and via a hurricane preparedness guide with a link to that listed below as well:

http://www.wx1box.org/local/hurrpre.txt
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/announcement/hurricanePreparedness.pdf

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 4 AM ET lasting through Monday for impact of Large Hurricane Irene. ARES/RACES/MARS/EMCOMM Groups should continue to closely monitor the progress of Large Hurricane Irene and seek advice from local leadership on stand-by and deployment status for their area which should soon move into to activation status.

Once again, Hurricane Irene should be monitored closely by people in Southern New England and preparations to protect life and propery should have already been completed. The latest NWS Taunton Hurricane Irene Local Statement, Flood Watch statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and advisory/track information on Large Hurricane Irene from the National Hurricane Center are listed below:

NWS Taunton Hurricane Irene Local Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Irene Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt34.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt44.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt24.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font14.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Track Map provided by the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/025514.shtml?5-daynl#contents

This will likely be the last Hurricane Irene Coordination Mesage as we move into Operations mode.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator        
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Hurricane Irene Coordination Message #6

Hello to all..

..Large Hurricane Irene Poised to Strike Southern New England. Hurricane and Tropical Strom Warnings are now in effect and expanded to include Southern New Hampshire. Preparations to protect life and property should now be rushed to completion by Saturday Evening..
..A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Sagamore Beach Massachusetts through Little River Inlet North Carolina including all the islands of New York and Southern New England. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Southern Bristol, Southern Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes, and Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for Southeast Providence, Kent, Bristol, Washington, Newport Counties of Rhode Island including Block Island RI.
..A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from north of Sagamore Beach Massachusetts to the Merrimack River Massachusetts. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the remainder of Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut and has been expanded into Southern New Hampshire..
..A Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire NWS Taunton County Warning Area except for Cape Cod and the Islands from Saturday Evening through late Sunday Night..
..Isolated tornadoes will be possible in Central and Eastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island and portions of Connecticut along and east of the Irene’s track..
..Multiple Models are in agreement on a potential impact to Southern New England in the late Saturday to early Monday timeframe. The extent on specifics of impact are being better detailed now given the current track guidance have had strong run-to-run consistency. Heavy Rain, Damaging Tropical Storm to Hurricane Force Winds, and Coastal Flooding and Beach Erosion along the South Coast of New England remain potential threats. The impact is likely to be similar to Hurricane Gloria in 1985..
..The models are largely in great agreement on a track just off the Mid-Atlantic Coast into Western to Central Long Island and Western to Central Connecticut. This could pose a widespread wind damage threat to areas along and east of Irene’s track with heaviest rainfall along and to the west of the track..
..VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Nets and WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center are now active gathering reports from North Carolina, Virginia and the Mid-Atlantic Region..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 6 AM Sunday lasting through early Monday for impact of Large Hurricane Irene. There is the possibility that Ops at NWS Taunton could be started a little prior to 6 AM based on Irene’s movement..
..ARES/RACES/MARS/EMCOMM Groups should closely monitor the progress of large Hurricane Irene and seek advise from local leadership on stand-by status for their area..
..A Special Reporting Criteria and Safety Message to encompass some of the items that WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, will be looking for will be sent Saturday Afternoon..
..The first 4 paragraphs of this coordination message contain the most critical updates..

As of the 11 AM Saturday National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center Advisory package, Hurricane Warnings are in effect to include the area from Sagamore Beach Massachusetts to Watch Hill Rhode Island all the way down to Little River Inlet North Carolina. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Southern Bristol, Southern Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes, and Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for Southeast Providence, Kent, Bristol, Washington, Newport Counties of Rhode Island including Block Island RI. In the Hurricane Warning area, hurricane force winds sustained or in gusts are likely to occur over the region. 2-4 inches of rain will be expected in this area with isolated higher amounts. Storm Surge flooding will occur across the south facing coastal locations with a 3-6 foot surge over portions of Cape Cod potentially reaching 4-8 feet in Narragansett and Buzzards Bays.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from north of Sagamore Beach to Merrimack River Massachusetts. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the remainder of Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut and has been expanded into Southern New Hampshire. In this area, sustained winds to tropical storm force with gusts to high end tropical storm force are expected in the area. There is likely to be 5 to 10 inches of rainfall with isolated higher amounts in this region.

A Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire NWS Taunton County Warning Area except for Cape Cod and the Islands for Saturday Evening through late Sunday Night. Heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated higher amounts is expected to cause widespread minor to moderate flooding of rivers and streams along with potentially significant urban and poor drainage flooding. The exact heavy axis of rain is likely to be over Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut but could also make it into Central and Northeast areas depending on Irene’s exact track.

The track guidance is in good agreement on a track just offshore of the mid-atlantic coast into Western and Central Long Island New York and then into Western and Central Connecticut. This will put portions of Central and much of Eastern Masaschusetts, Rhode Island, and Eastern Connecticut on the damaging wind side of the hurricane. Potentially widespread damaging winds to trees and power lines are likely with pockets of wind damage on the west side of the storm track with very heavy rainfall. Isolated Tornadoes are possible along and to the east of Irene’s track. The impact is expected to be similar to Hurricane Glorida in 1985.

Also, it is noted that there will be very high wind speeds at 1000 feet and higher. Higher elevation locations across the region along with coastal areas will be the most prone locations to significant wind damage to trees and wires.

The VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Nets along with WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center will be active all weekend. See their respective net links and the link to WX4NHC for details:

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

WX4NHC – Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org

High Surf conditions are affecting the New England coast. Swells and Rip Currents can be very dangerous to both the experienced and inexperienced swimmer. A rip current risk statement was reissued Friday Morning by NWS Taunton. See links below:

NWS Taunton High Surf Advisory/Rip Current Risk Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Surf Zone Forecast Information:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on&issuedby=BOX&product=SRF

Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of Hurricane Irene. People should continue reviewing and acting on their preparedness measures for tropical storm/hurricane force conditions and have these plans completed by Saturday Evening. This information has been provided via the Hurricane Preparedness Week Public Information Statements of Safety Tips via the link below and via a hurricane preparedness guide with a link to that listed below as well:

http://www.wx1box.org/local/hurrpre.txt
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/announcement/hurricanePreparedness.pdf

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely starting at 6 AM ET lasting through Monday for impact of Large Hurricane Irene. It is possible Ops at NWS Taunton could be pushed back to 4 or 5 AM depending on her speed of motion toward the region or heavy rainfall Saturday Night over the region. ARES/RACES/MARS/EMCOMM Groups should closely monitor the progress of Large Hurricane Irene and seek advice from local leadership on stand-by status for their area which should soon move into to activation status.

Once again, Hurricane Irene should be monitored closely by people in Southern New England and preparations to protect life and propery should now be rushed to completion by Saturday Evening. The latest NWS Taunton Hurricane Irene Local Statement, Flood Watch statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and advisory/track information on Large Hurricane Irene from the National Hurricane Center are listed below:

NWS Taunton Hurricane Irene Local Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Irene Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt34.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt44.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt24.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font14.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Track Map provided by the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/025514.shtml?5-daynl#contents

The next coordination message will likely be posted by 9 PM Saturday pending further computer model data on the track of Irene and significant updates to Irene’s status as a tropical system from an intensity perspective as well as the status on Watches and Warnings for the region. That will likely be the last Hurricane Irene Coordination Mesage as we move into Operations mode.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator       
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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