Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Sunday July 15th 2012 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across much of Southern New England Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to Damaging Winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..Threat timeframe is after 2 PM Sunday Afternoon and will be contingent on sunshine and degree of instability in the atmosphere..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Sunday Afternoon and Evening..

A warm front will make its way through Southern New England Sunday Afternoon and Evening bringing with it oppressive heat and humidity for the first half of this week. Along the warm front, isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could organize in Eastern New York, New Jersey and Eastern Pennsylvania and make its way into Southern New England after 2 PM in western areas and after 4 PM in eastern areas with strong to damaging winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. The threat will be contingent on the amount of sunshine and destablization that can take place ahead of the front. Wind shear values should be sufficient for the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms presuming full destablization is realized. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and NWS Taunton are in agreement on an isolated to scattered threat of strong to severe thunderstorms for Sunday Afternoon and evening.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be issued by 1 PM Sunday Afternoon. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1207141730.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Special Announcement: ARRL to Host Webinar on Amateur Radio Response to 2012 Hurricane Season

Hello to all..

The following is a special announcement on the ARRL to Host a webinar on the Amateur Radio Response to the 2012 Hurricane Season for Tuesday July 17th, 2012 from 800-930 PM. A link to the story and the complete ARRL web story including registration instructions are listed below:

http://www.arrl.org/news/arrl-to-host-webinar-on-amateur-radio-response-to-2012-hurricane-season

The ARRL will host a webinar from 8-9:30 PM EDT Tuesday, July 17 (0000-0130 UTC Wednesday, July 18) to present information about the 2012 hurricane season and the Amateur Radio response. The program will offer presentations from representatives from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and WX4NHC (the Amateur Radio station at the NHC), the VoIP Hurricane Net, the Hurricane Watch Net (HWN) and the ARRL. Webinar registration is open to all, but this informative web session will be of particular interest to those amateurs in hurricane-prone areas. If you are interested in emergency communications and hurricane preparedness and response, you are invited to attend this online presentation.

The following items will be included in the webinar:

•Opening remarks and introduction of presenters.

•Meteorological Overview of the Upcoming Season, presented by VoIP Hurricane Net Director of Operations and ARRL Eastern Massachusetts Section Emergency Coordinator Rob Macedo, KD1CY.

•Amateur Radio WX4NHC at the National Hurricane Center: Who We Are and What We Do and How to Contact WX4NHC and Submit Surface Reports During a Hurricane, presented by WX4NHC Assistant Coordinator Julio Ripoll, WD4R

•WX4NHC Weather Initiatives: APRS, ON-NHC, CARMEN and CWOP Programs and Equipment, presented by WX4NHC Coordinator John McHugh, K4AG

•ARRL Coordination and Interface, presented by ARRL Emergency Preparedness Manager Mike Corey, KI1U

•VoIP Hurricane Net, presented by Rob Macedo, KD1CY

•Hurricane Watch Net, presented by Hurricane Watch Net Assistant Net Manager Tom Gerard, KB3ONZ

•Q&A Session and Closing Remarks

To register for this webinar, please click:
https://www3.gotomeeting.com/register/472855454

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Saturday July 7th, 2012 Severe Weather Potential Reduced for Much of Area – Monitoring Continues

Hello to all..

..Message delayed until after the latest 1630 UTC/1230 PM EDT SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook was issued..
..Due to Cloud cover and light showers covering portions of Southern New England not seen on weather models yesteday, the severe weather threat looks to be confined to portions of Connecticut and largely south and west of the NWS Taunton Coverage Area. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Litchfield, Fairfield and New Haven Counties of Connecticut until 7 PM this evening. There is the possibility that some severe weather activity could affect areas close to the watch in the NWS Taunton Coverage Area in Connecticut but this is currently a low probability..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the progress of today’s activity. Ops at NWS Taunton now seem less likely but are possible if activity is able to organize in the northern part of a short line of thunderstorms approaching the area..
..This will be the last coordination message for today unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and Severe Thunderstorm Watch Information for areas just outside of the NWS Taunton Coverage Area..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #477 Statement (First Link) and County Outline (Second Link):
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1207071543.wwus20.html
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1207071603.wous64.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday July 7th, 2012 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening across much of Southern New England. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a Slight Risk for Severe Weather Saturday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening..

A cold front will approach the region Saturday Afternoon and Evening bringing more seasonable temperatures and less humidity for the first half of next week. As the front approaches, the atmosphere should be unstable with good wind shear profiles aloft. Some other severe weather parameters are not quite as favorable but the approach of the cold front into an unstable atmosphere with reasonably strong wind shear should allow for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms to develop over the region with damaging winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. The threat timeframe will be Saturday Afternoon into Saturday Evening and SPC and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather for that timeframe.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely on Saturday. Another coordination message will be issued by Noon Saturday. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #3A – Wednesday July 4th Severe Weather Potential – SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton by 400-415 PM

Hello to all..

..At the request of NWS Taunton, SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 400-415 PM to monitor severe weather potential over the region. A few heavy downpours have formed in the North Shore to Braintree area and additional activity could form over the next few hours. This will be the last message on severe weather potential for July 4th..

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Wednesday July 4th Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible late this Wednesday Afternoon and Evening across much of the NWS Taunton coverage area with some models indicating that Southern New Hampshire and Eastern Massachusetts may be at greatest risk for isolated to scattered severe weather activity. Damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. SPC and NWS Taunton maintain the 5% probability of severe weather risk over the area..
..Much of the region is clearing out this morning in the wake of earlier showers and isolated downpours which will allow temperatures to rise into the lower 90’s with high humidity. Much of the region will remain dry but isolated to scattered locations could receive a shower or thunderstorm and a couple to few locations could see a strong to severe thunderstorm..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor the severe weather potential for later Wednesday Afternoon and Wednesday Evening. Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible to likely for the same time period..

At 1030 AM, Satellite and Radar imagery indicate clearing conditions across much of Southern New England. Clouds across Southeast Massachusetts and Southern Rhode Island will move out of the area allowing for temperatures to rise quickly with much higher humidity there as well. Temperatures are expected to reach the lower 90s.

As this occurs, the atmosphere will destabilize over the course of the day with good wind shear profiles over the region. Warmer temperatures aloft and the lack of a trigger will keep the atmosphere capped for a good portion of the day across the region and this will mean little in the way of shower and thunderstorm activity during the day. As we get into late this afternoon and this evening, an impulse will approach the region from southern Canada and this may allow for the cap to be broken allowing for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. The threat is conditional on the impulse being able to break the cap and tap into the unstable environment and wind shear aloft. Models seem to indicate that Southern New Hampshire and Eastern Massachusetts may be an area to watch though all areas should monitor the situation. As stated in this coordination message and prior messages, much of the region will remain dry but isolated to scattered locations could receive a shower or thunderstorm and a couple to few locations could see a strong to severe thunderstorm.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor the severe weather potential for later Wednesday Afternoon and Wednesday Evening. Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible to likely for the same time period. This will be the last full coordination message on today’s threat. Given the 4th of July holiday and many outdoor activities, a shortened coordination message will be issued later today, likely prior to or around 800 PM this evening, either indicating the threat is cleared or if Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated or SKYWARN Self-Activation is actively monitoring activity over the region. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday July 4th 2012 Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms continue to be possible for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening across much of Southern New England. Damaging Winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..

..Uncertainities remain with what occurs with convection during the early morning hours of Wednesday and what impacts that has on the environment for later Wednesday. Anyone with outdoor interests particularly given the amount of them occurring for July 4th/Independence Day activities should continue to monitor later forecasts. It will not be a washout and many areas will remain dry but events impacted by thunderstorms, particularly strong to severe thunderstorms, could have issues so monitoring later forecasts remains prudent..

..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible to likely for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued with a severe weathre threat level of ‘See Text’/5% severe weather probability owing to uncertainties in what evolves for convection and storms during the early morning hours Wednesday. This could get upgraded if conditions become more certain for severe weather for later Wednesday Afternoon and evening.

The two different scenario setup as indicated in the last coordination message remains in play. Wind fields should be sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorm development, the keys for severe weather development later Wednesday Afternoon and Evening are the amount of cloud cover over the region from any shower and thunderstorm activity Wednesday Morning and whether expected heating and destablization is realized and sufficient triggering for thunderstorms to develop. The information from the previous message on the two scenarios is brought forward to this message below.

The first sceneario would be that convection that occurs during Wednesday Morning will mitigate heating and destablization lessening the threat for showers and thunderstorms and a severe weather threat for later in the day Wednesday. The second scenario is that this activity moves through quickly and allows for clearing, heating and destablization that would allow for at least isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms and even the potential for a more potent severe weather outbreak. The forecast is uncertain in the regards to the severe weather magnitude but odds favor at least isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats during Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. If enough clearing and other parameters line up, a more potent severe weather episode would be possible. Given the amount of outdoor activities for July 4th, future forecasts should be monitored closely for changes as the initial set of convection moves through Wednesday Morning and what that means for potential severe weather later Wednesday.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible to likely for Wednesday. Another coordination message will be issued by 1100 AM Wednesday Morning to update the July 4th severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)

ARES SKYWARN Coordinator

Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator

Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)

Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)

Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)

Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com

http://ares.ema.arrl.org

http://beta.wx1box.org

 

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday July 4th, 2012 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms continue to be possible for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening across much of Southern New England. Damaging Winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..Uncertainities exist with what occurs with convection during the early morning hours of Wednesday and what impacts that has on the environment for later Wednesday. Anyone with outdoor interests particularly given the amount of them occurring for July 4th/Independence Day activities should continue to monitor later forecasts..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely for Wednesday..

This morning the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) reduced the threat level for severe weather from Slight Risk to ‘See Text’/5% severe weather probability owing to uncertainties in what evolves for convection and storms during the early morning hours Wednesday. They also stated, however, that a Slight risk could be reintroduced in later outlooks.

Essentially, two scenarios could evolve for July 4th. The first sceneario would be that convection that occurs during Wednesday Morning will mitigate heating and destablization lessening the threat for showers and thunderstorms and a severe weather threat for later in the day Wednesday. The second scenario is that this activity moves through quickly and allows for clearing, heating and destablization that would allow for at least isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms and even the potential for a more potent severe weather outbreak. The forecast is uncertain in the regards to the severe weather magnitude but odds favor at least isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats during Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. If enough clearing and other parameters line up, a more potent severe weather episode would be possible. Given the amount of outdoor activities for July 4th, future forecasts should be monitored closely for changes as the initial set of convection moves through Wednesday Morning and what that means for potential severe weather later Wednesday.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely for Wednesday. Another coordination message will be issued by 1130 PM this evening to update Wednesday’s severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday July 2nd Severe Weather Potential and Look Ahead to Wednesday July 4th Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated Strong to possibly Severe Thunderstorms possible this Monday afternoon into early evening. The greatest threat would be in Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island but all areas should monitor. Strong to damaging winds, hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..Instability and shear is forecast to be less than on Sunday which should mean less storms over the area but an isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out over the area..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the threat for this afternoon into early tonight. Ops at NWS Taunton will be possible if the threat becomes more widespread. This will be the only message on today’s threat unless the threat becomes more widespread and Ops are initiated. The NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook is posted below for reference..
..Looking ahead to Wednesday July 4th, it is noted that both NWS Taunton and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) are in agreement on a Slight risk for Severe Weather for the entire region with SPC posting the slight risk in their Day-3 Convective Outlook. There are still some uncertainties but the potential exists for severe weather Wednesday Afternoon and Evening across the region. If a Slight risk for severe weather remains in the Tuesday Morning SPC Day-2 convective outlook, coordination messages for Wednesday July 4th will start Tuesday Morning to cover the potential threat given the significant number of outdoor activities for July 4th. The SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook is posted for reference..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1A – Sunday July 1st Severe Weather Potential – SKYWARN Activation and Ops at NWS Taunton Starting at 2 PM ET

Hello to all..

..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence starting at 2 PM Sunday Afternoon lasting through early evening for Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms potential for portions of Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts during this Sunday afternoon into early evening. Damaging Winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. SPC has upgraded portions of Southern New England (Specifically portions of Connecticut) to a Slight Risk for Severe Weather and parts of the area could be under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch later today per the Mesoscale Convective Discussion issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). This will be the last update on today’s severe weather threat. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and Mesoscale Convective Discussion..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1332.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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