Storm Coordination Message #1 – Saturday June 2nd-Sunday June 3rd Storm Potential

Hello to all..

..A Storm System will move into Southern New England Saturday into early Sunday Morning Bringing the potential for heavy rain in northeast parts of the region and the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and possibly even river and stream flooding. High Surf and minor coastal flooding also possible..
..A Flood Watch is in effect for Southern New Hampshire, Essex and Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for 2-3 inches of rain with locally higher amounts possible. There is potential for even higher rainfall totals in the Flood Watch area though current models project the heaviest rain slightly further north into Southeast and South-Central New Hampshire and Southern Maine but this is in the margin of error of the models. This will need to be monitored closely..
..High Surf and minor coastal flooding will be possible at the time of high tide on Saturday, Sunday and Monday evening. A High Surf Advisory is in effect from 6 AM to 8 AM Saturday for East and South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island including Cape Cod and the Islands..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is possible later Saturday into Sunday Morning. Another coordination message on this storm will be sent by 10 AM Saturday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement, High Surf Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Surf Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Special Announcement: Remembering the June 1st, 2011 Massachusetts Tornado Outbreak

Hello to all..

It is hard to believe, as many people will feel time has gone by so quickly, but we have reached the one-year anniversary of a historic day in Southern New England Weather History. The June 1st, 2011 Massachusetts Tornado Outbreak will be a day long remembered in weather history. This announcement recaps the tornado outbreak and the lessons learned that apply today.

The June 1st, 2011 event was forecasted by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman Oklahoma as far as 5 days out. This is very rare for New England to be in a convective outlook past 3 days. The outlook of ‘Slight Risk’ for severe weather would continue right up through June 1st. As we got into June 1st, a fast moving area of rapidly developing severe thunderstorms ahead of the warm front affected portions of Southern New Hampshire and Northeast Massachusetts producing large hail. These storms quickly moved out of area and were a sign of things to come and how explosive the atmosphere was on June 1st. Abundant sunshine and rapid heating and destabilization coupled with extremely strong wind shear values, set the stage for a historic major severe weather outbreak in Massachusetts and other parts of New England. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma issued a Mesoscale Convective Discussion highlighting the need for Tornado Watches for much of New York and New England. The Tornado Watches would be issued and supercell severe thunderstorms would move into Southern New England.

Initially the supercells produced very large hail including hail slightly over 4″ in diameter in East Windsor Massachusetts, Berkshire County, which may potentially set the new record for the commonwealth as far as hail size but no tornadic or wind damage activity through 400 PM. This is when the supercell began to take shape in Western Hampden County Massachusetts and set the stage for the large, long track EF-3 Tornado that traversed the area from Westfield to Charlton Massachusetts for a 39-mile long damage path and was on the ground for 70 minutes. Three smaller tornadoes occurred in Western and Central Massachusetts from additional supercells moving through the area. Another area of supercells went through Northern Worcester County into Middlesex and Suffolk Counties producing Golf Ball Sized hail and pockets of wind damage all the way into the Metro Boston area.

June 1st, 2011 underscored how important Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters are to the warning process and how the timely severe weather reporting can not only help the warning process but can also help saves lives. The near real-time reporting of the large EF-3 tornado touchdown with initial preliminary reports in Westfield, the actual spotting of the EF3 Tornado by Western Massachusetts SKYWARN Coordinator, Ray Weber-KA1JJM, and the amazing remote webcam footage from WWLP-TV channel 22 in Springfield Massachusetts helped to tell people that not only was this a radar detected tornado but that it was definitely on the ground and doing significant damage. It is quite likely that many lives were saved by this near realtime reporting of the tornado being on the ground.

Amateur Radio SKYWARN Nets were active on several Amateur Radio Repeaters including the 146.940-Mount Tom Repeater run by the Mount Tom Amateur Radio Club and with Amateur Radio members and SKYWARN Spotters from the Hampden County Radio Association also reporting into the net. The 146.970-Paxton Repeater run by the Central Massachusetts Amateur Radio Club was active for several hours as well. Both repeaters providing significant near realtime reporting for situational awareness and disaster intelligence purposes not only to the media but also to local, state and federal emergency management officials. The Amateur Radio Internet Radio Linking Project (IRLP)/Echolink system on the echolink conference *NEW-ENG* node 9123/IRLP 9123 was also active with liaisons from various Amateur Radio nets reporting into the network. While not in the NWS Taunton County Warning Area, the 146.910-Mount Greylock Repeater was active with Berkshire County SKYWARN as run by Rick-WA1ZHM with Walt-N1DQU providing information from the net into NWS Taunton. Net Controls for the 146.940 Mount Tom Net were Bob Meneguzzo-K1YO and for the 146.970 Paxton Net, John Ruggiero-N2YHK. N9SC-Steve Craven provided a critical liaison link from the 146.970-Paxton Repeater Net to the 146.940-Mount Tom Net during the tornadic outbreak. Many Amateur Radio Operators and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters reported severe weather conditions despite being at risk from these powerful supercells. We are forever grateful for the reporting that helped save lives. The outpouring of damage assessment pictures and videos and reports near and after the event was unprecedented. This clearly helped Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs), local and state emergency management perform their duties to try and bring as many resources to bear on the significant path of destruction carved out by the tornado outbreak.

For the victims, today is likely a painful reminder of what occurred and what loses they face and in some cases are still recovering from in terms of property damage and possibly lives lost. Our thoughts and prayers remain to all those people that are affected and we hope that they’re recovery will complete as soon as possible.

For those not impacted by such a significant event as June 1st and not impacted severely by the likes of Irene and Snowtober last year, this is a reminder that we must all be prepared for these significant weather situations that occur at low frequency but can be with high impact. The more self-sufficient and prepared we are, the easier the situation will be if we are faced with such a significant scenario if it comes our way and potentially occurs in a more widespread way. For those SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators who have not witnessed such severe weather, this is why we train and prepare because we never know the hour or day where a critical severe weather report can help the warning process and save lives.

On a personal level, we never want severe weather like this to happen but if it has to happen, the level of commitment, support and reporting of the situation in near realtime on June 1st with a high level of precision and quality but also in the quantity that the reports came through in our network is a testament to all of you for remaining dedicated and supportive of the National Weather Service SKYWARN program. It is an honor and a privilege for myself and many of our Amateur Radio SKYWARN Coordinators across the NWS Taunton County Warning Area to serve as leaders of the program and we appreciate everything you do, as without all of you, we wouldn’t have the SKYWARN program we have today in our region. Having been the leader of the program for 16 years, this was our finest hour in supporting the NWS Taunton office and saving lives and it couldn’t have been done without all of your support.

We hope this remembrance makes people never forget what happened on June 1st 2011 and remind ourselves again that we must remain, prepared and vigilant especially here in New England where events such as June 1st can happen but on a low frequency basis. Later this summer, a June 1st 2011 video collage will be posted at our SKYWARN video page at video.nsradio.org with recordings of some of the Amateur Radio reports that came in through the network. Below is the NWS Taunton – Massachusetts Tornado Summary, the ARRL Story on the June 1st Tornado Outbreak, the NWS Taunton June 1st Local Storm Report and the Raw Storm log from the WX1BOX Amateur Radio Station.

NWS Taunton Massachusetts Tornado Summary:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/sigevents/jun01_2011_summary.php

ARRL Story from 6/1/12 – Central Massachusetts Experiences Rare Tornado, Area Hams Hasten to Help:
http://www.arrl.org/news/central-massachusetts-experiences-rare-tornado-area-hams-hasten-to-help

NWS Taunton Local Storm Reports:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/lsr_6_1_11.txt

NWS Taunton-WX1BOX Raw Amateur Radio Storm Log:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/storm_reports.txt

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Reminder: WX4NHC On-Air Communications Test – Saturday June 2nd, 2012

Hello to all..

The following is a reminder and a complete announcement on the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center – WX4NHC Communications Test for Saturday June 2nd, 2012 from 9 AM-5 PM EDT/1300-2100 UTC as written by Julio Ripoll-WD4R, Assistant WX4NHC Coordinator. They will be on the *WX-TALK* Echolink conference node: 7203/IRLP 9219 from 1 PM-3 PM EDT (1700-1900 UTC):

Announcement from WX4NHC
Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center

WX4NHC Hurricane Season 2012 On-The-Air Station Test
Saturday, June 2nd, 2012 from 9AM-5PM EDT (1300z-2100z)

The purpose of this event is to test the NHC Amateur Radio Station equipment and perform operator training in preparation for this year’s Hurricane Season.

We will be making informal contacts on many frequencies and modes.

We would appreciate signal reports and basic weather data exchange (“Sunny”, or “Rain”, etc.) from stations in any location.

WX4NHC will be On-The-Air on HF, VHF, UHF and 2 & 30 meter APRS.

We plan on testing on the following voice frequencies +/- QRM

3.950 MHz, 7.268MHz, 14.325MHz, 21.325MHz, 28.425MHz.

We will try to stay on 14.325 MHz most of the time and announce when we QSY.

You may be able to find us on HF by using one of the DX Spotting Networks,

Such as the DX Summit Web Site:

http://www.dxsummit.fi/Search.aspx

We will also be on VoIP Hurricane Net 1pm-3pm EDT (1700z-1900z)
(IRLP node 9219 / EchoLink WX-TALK Conference node 7203).

http://www.voipwx.net/

Local South Florida area VHF & UHF Repeaters will be contacted.

Non-Ham Radio Weather Enthusiasts are invited to submit their actual weather using the On-Line Hurricane Report Form at

http://www.wx4nhc.org/WX-form1.html

QSL Cards are available via WD4R.
Please send your card with a S.A.S.E.

Please do NOT send QSLs directly to the Hurricane Center address, as it will get delayed.

Due to security measures,

NO VISITORS will be allowed entry to NHC without prior clearance from NHC Security.

Only WX4NHC Operators on the pre-approved operating schedule will be allowed entry.

For more information about WX4NHC, please visit our website

www.wx4nhc.org

Thank you for your participation in the WX4NHC Hurricane Annual Season Station Test.

-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-
Julio Ripoll Architect WD4R
WX4NHC Amateur Radio Asst. Coordinator
www.wx4nhc.org
Celebrating 32 years at the
National Hurricane Center
www.nhc.noaa.gov
-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Post-Severe Weather Coordination Message – Tuesday 5/28/12 Severe Weather/Flash Flood Event

Hello to all..

..Cheshire County NH Hardest Hit by Severe Weather in the NWS Taunton Coverage area with hail over 2″ in diameter, pockets of wind damage and significant flash flooding. Pockets of wind damage occurred in portions of the Berkshires and CT River Valley of Western Massachusetts as well as in Worcester County Massachusett with pockets of hail also reported..
..Any pictures of wind damage, hail or flooding can be sent as a reply to this email or via the email address ‘pics at nsradio.org’. These pictures will be given to state and federal emergency management, media and NWS with credit given to the individual SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators taking the pictures. Also, any rainfall reports from Cheshire County NH will also be helpful..
..Below is the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report and Public Information Statement on Tuesday’s event and the complete log of reports taken at the NWS Taunton Amateur Radio Station..

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1205300150.nwus51.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – Rainfall Reports:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nous41.KBOX.html

Wind Damage/Hail/Flood/Flash Flood Reports:

345 PM: Alstead, NH: 1″ Hail falling continuously
400 PM: Gilsum, NH: 3/4″ Hail at the Village Store
405 PM: Walpole, NH: Pea-3/8″ Hail mixed with heavy rain lasting 20 minutes
450 PM: Walpole, NH: Golf Ball Sized Hail
450 PM: Marlow, NH: 1/2″ Hail
600 PM: Clarksburg camp grounds- 3 trees 3-4 feet in diameter tops snapped off 10 -12 ft in the air blocking the main road into the camp and 8 camp sites
600 PM: Westmoreland, NH: 2.0-2.25″ Diameter Hail
600 PM: Walpole, NH: 2.59″ of rain
600 PM: Walpole, NH: 3/8″ Hail
605 PM: Walpole, NH: Tree down across Route 123
605 PM: Keene, NH: Golf Ball Sized Hail
612 PM: Keene, NH: Several roads flooded/impassable -> Cedar Crest Drive, Pako Drive, Colonial and Dale Drives flooded/impassable
615 PM: Lanesboro, Mass: Tree into House on Greylock Road
619 PM: Cheshire, Mass: Tree Down on House on Richardson Road
629 PM: Alstead, NH: Tree and Wires Down – Pleasant Street
629 PM: Goshen, Mass: Tree and Wires Down on Spruce Corner Road
630 PM: Westmoreland, NH: Section of road flooded and impassable on Mount Gilboa Road impeding a rescue call
630 PM: Keene, NH: 2.13″ of rain in 85 Minutes
630 PM: Walpole, NH: 2.59″ of rain
631 PM: Gilsum, NH: Route 10 -> all lanes flooded and impassable
633 PM: Sullivan, NH: Centre Street – Road totally washed out
636 PM: Keene, NH: Ferry Brook Pond Out of its banks flooding Route 9
638 PM: Keene, NH: Hurricane Road -> flooded gravel and dirt thrown in road -> road barely passable -> partial road washout
641 PM: Alstead, NH: Alstead Center Road flooded and impassable
647 PM: Keene, NH: flooded, portion of Road is washed out but passable
648 PM: Sullivan, NH: South Road closed due to flooding, Hubbard Road and East Sullivan Roads Closed due to flooding
649 PM: Gilsum, NH: Vessel Rock Road, portion of road washed out, portion of Route 10 washed out.
650 PM: Antrim, NH: Pea Sized Hail
653 PM: Walpole, NH: County Road Flooded and impassable
658 PM: Walpole, NH: Tree Down on Book Cellar Road
701 PM: Keene, NH: Tree and Wires Down on Arch Street
706 PM: Antrim, NH: Golf Ball Sized Hail near the Antrim/Bennington NH line on the Antrim NH side.
708 PM: Keene, NH: Tree and Wires Down on Arch Street
720 PM: Keene, NH: 3.05″ of rain (Storm event)
729 PM: Surry, NH: Route 12A near Carpenter Road flooded/impassable
729 PM: Nelson, NH: Murdow Hill Road flooded and impassable
828 PM: Enfield, CT: Pea Sized Hail
836 PM: West Springfield, Mass: Sylvan Street flooded with 3 feet of water, plugged storm drain exacerbated the issue
906 PM: South Glastonbury, CT: Pea Sized Hail
921 PM: Sullivan, NH: Route 9 Closed due to flooding. Valley Road, car stuck in flood waters with person trapped and needing to be rescued
923 PM: Shrewsbury, Mass: Pea Sized Hail in Route 140 area
928 PM: Worcester, Mass: Tree Down on Power Lines – Sunny Hill Drive (51 MPH wind gust at Worcester Airport)
934 PM: Berlin, Mass: Pea Sized Hail on Route 290 – Exit 25 area

Rainfall Totals 2″ or more:
Antrim, NH: 2.25″
Walpole, NH: 3.94″
Keene, NH: 4.87″
Stoddard, NH: 3.71″
Swanzey, NH: 2.20″

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #4A – Tuesday 5/29/12 Severe Weather Potential Update and SKYWARN Activation and Ops Timing

Hello to all..

..In Coordination with NWS Taunton, SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 1130 AM ET this morning. It is noted that most of the severe weather activity will likely be in the late afternoon and evening but could start as early as midday so the activation is being done earlier in the day for that contingenecy..
..It is noted that the Storm Prediction Center has increased the probabilities for severe weather over western portions of the region and has expanded the slight risk area further east through interior Rhode Island and interior Eastern Massachusetts north and west of the I-95 corridor which aligns with NWS Taunton thinking of the severe weather situation..
..This will be the last coordination message for Tuesday’s severe weather event. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #4 – Tuesday 5/29/12 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Overnight, nocturnal severe weather affected portions of Northeast New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Southern Maine, as lack of triggering over Southern New England and ridging over the area precluded severe weather over Southern New England and the NWS Taunton Coverage Area..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely today over Southern New Hampshire, Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts, Northwest Rhode Island and Northern Connecticut this afternoon into tonight. Damaging Winds, large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. NWS Taunton and the Storm Prediction Center are in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather today over the region..
..Threat timeframe is most likely late this afternoon into Tuesday Evening but could start up as early as midday today as a cold front approaches the region..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton likely this Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night..

At 700 AM, Doppler Radar showed isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms over Northeast New York, North-Central Vermont, Northern New Hampshire and Southern Maine. This activity should remain north of the NWS Taunton coverage area through the morning hours. Radar also showed activity in Indiana, Ohio and over Lake Erie moving eastward. Satellite images showed clear skies over much of New York and West-Central Southern New England with low clouds over Eastern New England. The lack of a trigger and ridging over Southern New England precluded severe weather development despite a very unstable atmosphere overnight Monday. Also, better shear profiles remained north of Southern New England though shear over Southern New England would’ve been sufficient to produce severe weather if it we’re not for the lack of trigger and the ridging that was in place overnight in our region.

As we get into the day today, the ridging that forced the convection north of the area will breakdown as a cold front approaches. Ample heating and destablization will take place. The cold front will serve as a triggering mechanism and isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. The isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should organize into a squall line or one or two short lines of storms and should organize further south across Central and Eastern New York and spread into Western and Central New England. The current timeframe for the NWS Taunton coverage area should be in the late afternoon and evening hours but could be as early as midday today. A couple of conditions on severe weather today will be the southwest flow over the area that may continue to force the most severe convection north of the NWS Taunton coverage area and the strongest shear will remain to the north though ample shear profiles will exist in the NWS Taunton coverage area.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely this afternoon and tonight. The exact timeframe will be determined later today. This will be the last complete coordination message on today’s threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued as time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #3B – Monday 5/28/12 Severe Weather Potential Reduced

Hello to all..

..Lack of trigger despite sufficiently unstable atmosphere has precluded widespread severe weather development Monday Night. An Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm could occur late tonight into early Tuesday Morning but the threat has been reduced and will be handled with SKYWARN Self-Activation as required overnight..
..A complete write-up on Tuesday’s severe weather potential will be sent by 830 AM Tuesday Morning..

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Monday Evening 5/28/12 and Tuesday 5/29/12 Severe Weather Threats

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible across Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Northwest and North-Central Connecticut anytime after 8 PM this evening possibly even extending to the Midnight timeframe and into the overnight hours of early Tuesday Morning. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. SPC and NWS Taunton remain in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather for this area for Monday Night and early Tuesday Morning..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible across much of the NWS Taunton Coverage area away from the immediate coast late Tuesday Afternoon and Tuesday Night. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. SPC has extended the Slight Risk area further east for Tuesday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will continue until any potential threat for the evening hours has ended or the threat for any activity has passed. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely again late Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night..

The complex in Central New York State fell apart entering the area and failed to fire off any new strong to severe thunderstorms. Models remain fairly insistent on increasing destablization and a possible subtle trigger for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms via the warm front and possibly a complex of storms or Mesocale Convective System to organize somewhere in New York State and traverse into the region. The threat timeframe is after 8 PM and could potentially be as last as the Midnight timeframe into early Tuesday Morning. SPC and NWS Taunton remain in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather over Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and portions of Northwest and North-Central Connecticut. The threat remains contingnent on the following:

1.) Placement and triggering mechanism potential of the warm front over the area.
2.) Coverage of severe thunderstorms. There is the possibility that the thunderstorms could be quite isolated over the area but cells that form will have a high probability of producing severe weather. There is now also the possibility of a Mesoscale Convective System or MCS type of complex to organize depending on sufficient triggering otherwise the threat will be more isolated. There remains the possibility that the region will not be affected by severe weather overnight but the situation bears close watching due to certain favorable severe weather parameters.

As any possible severe weather wanes early Tuesday Morning and any potential MCS moves out of the area, heating and destablization should commence again ahead of a cold front later Tuesday Morning into the afternoon. SPC has pushed the slight risk area further east into Southwest New Hampshire and Western and Central Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut with NWS Taunton factoring in a risk for much of the NWS Taunton coverage area away from the coast. This would mean a more widespread round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The activity could be a short line or two of strong to severe thunderstorms or possibly a squall line. The threat timeframe remains late Tuesday Afternoon through Tuesday Night. The Tuesday severe weather threat will be discussed further once any Monday severe weather threat has passed and the severe weather parameters of the atmosphere for Tuesday will be better understood.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will continue through late Monday Evening or early Tuesday Morning pending any severe weather threat materializing. A shortened coordination message will be posted when Ops for any activity Monday Evening/early Tuesday Morning is secured. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely again late Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night. The next coordination message for any severe weather Tuesday will be posted by 830 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1205281635.wwus81.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1205281731.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Severe Weather Potential Monday 5/28/12 and Tuesday 5/29/12

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms continue to be likely across Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Northwest and North-Central Connecticut late Monday Afternoon through early Tuesday Morning. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. SPC and NWS Taunton remain in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather for this area for Monday..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible across much of the NWS Taunton Coverage area away from the immediate coast late Tuesday Afternoon and Tuesday Night. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. Currently, SPC has the Slight Risk area farther to the west for Tuesday but NWS Taunton feels isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could occur over much of the County Warning Area away from the coast..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 3 PM Monday Afternoon lasting into early Tuesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely again late Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night..

At 1240 PM today, Doppler Radar showed a dieing area of convection over Central New York State, it is possible that this system could refire producing an isolated severe thunderstorm threat by mid-afternoon though current trends are that this area of convection continues to weaken. Other activity could organize behind this dieing area convection after 2-3 PM. There could then be a lull in activity followed by a greater chance for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with possible Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) development around or after 8 pm this evening continuing into early Tuesday Morning. The warm front is reorienting itself from the CT River Valley to near Cape Cod and the islands and will continue to slowly move northward today and this evening. Much of Western and Central New England are in the warm sector and with the warm front as a potential trigger and sun and destablization continuing after a brief interruption from any convection and clouds mid-afternoon, it will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and urban/poor drainage flooding as the primary threats in the mid to late afternoon followed by a potential MCS and a greater threat for strong to severe thunderstorms later in the evening. SPC and NWS Taunton remain in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather over Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and portions of Northwest and North-Central Connecticut. The threat now remains contingent on these factors:

1.) Placement and triggering mechanism potential of the warm front over the area.
2.) Coverage of severe thunderstorms. There is the possibility that the thunderstorms could be quite isolated over the area but cells that form will have a high probability of producing severe weather. There is now also the possibility of a Mesoscale Convective System or MCS type of complex around or after 8 PM tonight after more isolated activity earlier in the day. It is also possible that most of the activity will occur this Monday Evening versus the mid to late afternoon period.

As the severe weather threat wanes early Tuesday Morning and any potential MCS moves out of the area, heating and destablization should commence again ahead of a cold front later Tuesday Morning into the afternoon. Currently, SPC has the Slight Risk area farther to the west but NWS Taunton feels isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could occur over much of the County Warning Area away from the coast. This would mean a more widespread round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The activity could be a short line or two of strong to severe thunderstorms or possibly a squall line. The threat timeframe will be late Tuesday Afternoon through Tuesday Night. The Tuesday severe weather threat will be discussed further once the Monday severe weather threat has passed.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 3 PM Monday Afternoon lasting into early Tuesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely again late Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night. This will be the last coordination message on the threat for Monday. The next coordination message will be posted Monday Evening for the Tuesday severe weather threat. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1205281635.wwus81.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/spc/latest.acus02.KWNS.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Severe Weather Potential Monday 5/28/12 and Tuesday 5/29/12

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely across Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Northwest and North-Central Connecticut late Monday Afternoon through early Tuesday Morning. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. SPC and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather for this area for Monday..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across much of the NWS Taunton Coverage area late Tuesday Afternoon and Tuesday Night. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely as early as 3 PM Monday Afternoon lasting into early Tuesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely again late Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night..

The cold front that moved through Southern New England late Saturday Afternoon and Saturday Night will move back over portions of Western New England on Monday as a warm front and stall over portions of Central New England tonight and Monday. Any shower and isolated thunderstorm activity with the warm front will wane Monday Morning. This will place portions of Western New England in the warm sector and with the warm front as a potential trigger with sunshine and destablization expected. It will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and urban/poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. An isolated supercell cannot be ruled out over the area. SPC and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather over Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and portions of Northwest and North-Central Connecticut. The threat will be contingent on the following factors:

1.) Placement and triggering mechanism potential of the warm front over the area.
2.) Amount of sunshine in the warm sector.
3.) Coverage of severe thunderstorms. There is the possibility that the thunderstorms could be quite isolated over the area but cells that form will have a high probability of producing severe weather.

As the severe weather threat wanes early Tuesday Morning, heating and destablization should commence again ahead of a cold front later Tuesday Morning into the afternoon. This should set stage for a more widespread round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The threat timeframe will be late Tuesday Afternoon through Tuesday Night. The threat for Tuesday is likely to cover much of the NWS Taunton coverage area away from the coast and could have more numerous severe thunderstorms but potentially not as potent as the Monday late afternoon and evening storms that will likely not be as widespread but each individual cell being more potent. The Tuesday severe weather threat will be discussed further once the Monday severe weather threat has passed.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely as early as 3 PM Monday Afternoon lasting into early Tuesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely again late Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night. The next coordination message will be posted by Noon Monday. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/spc/latest.acus02.KWNS.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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