Hello to all..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thundertorms with the potential for a more widespread severe weather event remain a threat for Monday Afternoon through Monday Evening. Damaging Winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats.
..The Storm Prediction Center and NWS Taunton remain in agreement on a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms for Monday. While the high category slight risk has been pulled to the west of Southern New England, there still remains a threat for a more widespread severe weather event and higher probability of severe weather as noted in the 0600 UTC SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely starting as early as 11 AM to Noon lasting through late Monday Evening..
Monday is shaping up to be an active day for thunderstorms across the region and will set the stage for at least isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. If certain parameters line up, a more widespread severe weather event will be possible. Models indicate sufficient heating for destablization with strong wind shear profiles but in more of a speed shear and unidirectional environment for strong straight-line winds. This could set the stage for one or two clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and very heavy rainfall that could induce urban/poor drainage flooding. Some items that could mitigate the overall threat for Monday include:
1.) Cloud cover from a convective complex expected to affect Northern New England overnight Sunday Night may delay the severe weather threat until later afternoon or mitigate the severe weather episode.
2.) West winds that could dry out dewpoints in Western New England leading to less destablization.
At this time, parameters indicate active thunderstorms in the area with isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. If the two mitigating factors above don’t occur, a more widespread severe weather event will be possible.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely as early as 11 AM-Noon lasting through late evening. The next coordination message will be issued by 830 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: email@example.com