Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday 8/7/18 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible this Tuesday afternoon and evening with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts, Connecticut and the Northwest corner of Rhode Island in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton started at 200 PM to monitor the threat. Coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms will be contingent on somewhat stronger wind fields aloft extending into portions of Southern New England with the intense instability currently in place. This will be the only coordination message as we are in operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Severe Weather/Flash Flood Potential – Saturday 8/4/18

Hello to all…

..Convective Showers and Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are expected this morning through early evening across Southern New England. Isolated severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are possible as we get into the late Saturday Morning through early Saturday Evening timeframe. An isolated/brief tornado cannot be ruled out as well. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Southern New England in a Marginal Risk for Severe Weather through early evening..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for Northern Connecticut, Bristol, Kent, Providence and Washington Counties of Rhode Island, and Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester, Middlesex, Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk, and North-Central Bristol Counties of Massachusetts for 1-2″ per hour rainfall rates potentially causing urban and poor drainage flooding..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions today. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible depending on how the situation evolves..

The last day for convective chances for a couple days will occur today. A weak cold front and meso low will move across the area today. Doppler Radar at 725 AM shows a line of heavy downpours, convective showers and isolated thunderstorms extending from Southern New Jersey to Northern New England with the meso low forming in Southern New Jersey. The activity is moving northeastward. If convective showers and thunderstorms can train over the same area, it will lead to greater risk of flooding and flash flooding hence the Flash Flood Watch headlines for much of Southern New England as depicted above. The other risk is for Isolated Severe Thunderstorms. Despite cloud cover from the line of convective showers, downpours, the meso low in Southern New Jersey may enhance instability to allow for isolated severe thunderstorms with a strong to damaging wind risk and possibly an isolated/brief tornado. For this region, SPC has the region in a marginal risk of severe weather for today.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions today. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible depending on how the situation evolves. This will be the only complete coordination message on today’s severe weather potential. A shortened coordination message will be posted if time allows and Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are initiated. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Friday 8/3/18 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible again today across Western and North-Central Massachusetts possibly extending into Northeast Massachusetts and Northwest Massachusetts, strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Northern and Western Massachusetts through Northwest Connecticut in a marginal to slight risk for severe weather today..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 2 PM today to monitor the threat..

As has been the case since Wednesday, the region remains in a hot and very humid environment. The region will again have sufficient instability and wind shear for the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in Western to North-Central and possibly Northeast Massachusetts and into Northwest Connecticut. The question will be whether there is a sufficient trigger to get any isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms to form. They could affect the area outlined or be north and west of this area. This will be monitored through the day.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 2 PM today to monitor the threat. This will be the only coordination message as we move into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday 8/2/18 and Friday 8/3/18 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late Thursday Afternoon and Evening across Western Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut with a line of activity over Western Connecticut and entering Western Massachusetts. Strong to Damaging Winds, heavy rain leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats..
..Another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms is possible Friday Afternoon and Evening across Western Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather for today and again Friday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton commenced at 345 PM Thursday to monitor today’s threat. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible again Friday Afternoon and Friday Night. A coordination message will be sent by 10 AM Friday for Friday’s severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outloook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 and Day 2 Convective Outlooks..

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2018/day2otlk_20180802_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday 8/1/18 – Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible late Wednesday Morning into Wednesday Evening across Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats with an isolated tornado as a secondary threat. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Western and Central New England in a marginal risk for severe weather with a slight risk of severe weather for extreme Western New England..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will occur for the severe weather potential with monitoring started by 11 AM-Noon Wednesday..

The severe weather potential particularly for Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut has increased a bit as we approach the late Wednesday Morning into early Wednesday Evening timeframe. A warm front signaling the increase of Dewpoints and higher humidity will work through Southern New England this morning with some showers associated with it. After that passes through, there will be higher instability along with high shear as well as turning in the atmosphere. This should allow for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms and the timing of this could be as early as late morning through as late as early this evening. The headlines of the coordination message depict the current threat. There had been some concerns about triggering the atmosphere in prior outlooks but the position of the warm front and its proximity may provide sufficient triggering for strong to severe thunderstorms development in western and central New England. There had also been concerns about cloud cover reducing the threat as well but models are still bringing in fairly high instability levels along with rather strong wind shear. The coverage of severe thunderstorms is expected to be isolated to scattered but those isolated areas could see a fairly potent severe weather event if the conditions line up as expected.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will occur for the severe weather potential with monitoring started by 11 AM-Noon Wednesday. This will be the only coordination message as we move into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday 7/28/18 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible to likely across interior Southern New England today and potentially reaching areas further east into portions of Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts as a cold front will bring an end to the high humidity over the region. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of New England and other parts of the Northeast in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 1230 PM to monitor the severe weather potential for today..

Heating is occurring as yesterday’s convection has cleared out of the area. A cold front or trough with lesser humidity will swing through New England this afternoon and tonight. We have the heating to allow for destabilization of the atmosphere. Wind shear profiles are actually a bit stronger than they were yesterday. The key to the aerial coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms will be how much drier air in the upper levels of the atmosphere effects thunderstorm development. This drier air could make the coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms limited or very isolated. If the dry air does not stifle the development of thunderstorms, then the coverage over the area would be more substantial given the instability, wind shear, and triggering mechanisms in place.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 1230 PM to monitor the severe weather potential for today. This will be the only coordination message as we move to operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday 7/27/18 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Another round of Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms is likely across Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut Friday Afternoon into Friday Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this area in a marginal to slight risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will likely commence around 100 PM lasting through Friday Evening..

Satellite imagery shows clear conditions except for low clouds along the South Coast of Massachusetts and Rhode Island. The clear conditions should allow for heating and destabilization across the area. A cold front will approach western New England and there should be sufficient wind shear along with cooling conditions aloft and sufficient heating and destabilization to bring an isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm threat to this area. The timeframe for severe weather is after 2 PM Friday through early evening. Areas of Northern Massachusetts east of the current risk areas should also likely monitor this scenario as depending on timing, strong to severe thunderstorms could move into portions of this area. The marginal and slight risks for severe weather were shifted slightly eastward into parts of Central Massachusetts and most of Northern Connecticut for this update.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 100 PM lasting through Friday Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we move into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1807271326.wwus81.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Post Severe Weather & Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Two EF1 Tornadoes in South-Central Worcester County 7/26/18 – Friday 7/27/18 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…
..A nocturnal supercell causes Two EF-1 Tornadoes between 230-300 AM Thursday July 26th, One EF-1 Tornado in the East Douglas/Northwest Uxbridge/Southern Northbridge Massachusetts area and the second EF-1 Tornado in Upton, Massachusetts. A combination of SKYWARN Spotter/Amateur Radio Operator, Police/Fire and Emergency Management reports lead to the confirmation of these two tornadoes. Any further damage photos or videos of the storm damage from the two EF-1 Tornadoes is appreciated and credit will be given to the spotter for the reports..
..This is the third tornado in the NWS Boston/Norton coverage area in 2 weeks after the EF-1 Tornado in Ashford, CT on Tuesday July 17th, 2018..
..Another round of Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms is likely across Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut Friday Afternoon into Friday Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this area in a marginal to slight risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will likely commence around 200 PM through Friday Evening..
A nocturnal supercell caused two EF-1 Tornadoes between 230-300 AM Thursday July 26th in the Douglas/Uxbridge/Northbridge Massachusetts area and Upton Mass area. We have posted a Facebook Photo Album of photos on the damage and this will be updated with NWS Storm Survey photos on Friday or this weekend. Below is the WX1BOX Facebook Photo Album, NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report and Public Information Statement on the 2 EF-1 Tornadoes:
WX1BOX Facebook Photo Album:
NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Thursday 7/26/18:
NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement – Thursday 7/26/18:
Any additional photos or videos from the tornado paths will help with the historical record. They can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook or Twitter feeds or via the email address as pics@nsradio.org and credit will be given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated.
Another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms is likely across Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut Friday Afternoon into Friday Evening. A cold front will approach western New England and there should be sufficient wind shear along with cooling conditions aloft and sufficient heating and destabilization to bring an isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm threat to this area. The timeframe for severe weather is after 2 PM Friday through early evening. Areas of Northern Massachusetts east of the current risk areas should also likely monitor this scenario as depending on timing, strong to severe thunderstorms could move into portions of this area.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will likely commence around 200 PM through Friday Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Friday. Below is the SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday 7/25/18 – Severe Weather/Flash Flood Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Night across Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats. This potential is likely to continue into Thursday as well..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible anytime Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Evening..

The very humid pattern will continue through at least Thursday across Southern New England. A cold front will slowly approach Southern New England on Wednesday. As we get into Wednesday Afternoon and evening, the tropical stream of moisture that was largely confined to west of New England outside of a few downpours will become more numerous in nature and potentially grow into thunderstorms as well if there is enough heating. There will be sufficient wind shear that if instability is sufficient, it would set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday Afternoon through Wednesday Night and it could last through Thursday as well. The main threats would be strong to damaging winds and urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding. Some localized areas of Western New England have received several inches of rain particularly from Monday’s heavy downpours and thunderstorms so these areas would be most vulnerable.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible anytime Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 10 AM Wednesday. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2A – Early Sunday Morning through Early Sunday Evening 7/22/18 Severe Weather/Flash Flood Potential

Hello to all…

..WX1BOX Amateur Radio Operations active since 745 AM Sunday monitoring severe weather and flash flood potential. The isolated tornado and waterspout threat has diminished to a very low probability but general strong winds with gusts up to and possible over 50 MPH and heavier downpours causing urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats through mid to late afternoon..

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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