SKYWARN Newsletter #207

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Hello to all...

Severe Weather Events to Date Lowest Number Since 1993....

Strong Thunderstorms Pass Just offshore of Cape Cod on 7/11/03...

Rip Currents: A Danger that Can Occur on Southern New England Beaches...

Hurricane Watch Net Activates Briefly Due to Claudette...

Tropical Storm Claudette Coordinates...

***Newsletter Issued 7/13/03.

Severe Weather Events to Date Lowest Number Since 1993....

Severe Weather for the 2003 season to date is running well below

a 10 year average of severe weather reporting per statistics from

the publication Storm Data as of July 11th, 2003.

Storm Data is a publication where all severe weather reports are

compiled from local National Weather Service Forecast Offices and

the Storm Prediction Center and compiled as a reference book for

storm related damage. Storm Data contains both winter and summer time

information. The data generated from Storm Data comes from YOUR timely

severe weather reporting to the National Weather Service forecast

office for the protection of life and property!!

The National Climate Data Center assists with creating Storm Data and

has made available a free site where spotter reports can be queried

on from the Storm Data archive. The link to this site is listed below:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/sd/

The following is a state-by-state breakdown for the NWS Taunton County

Warning Area with the exception of Massachusetts where Berkshire County

from NWS Albany's area was included for ease of compiling the data.

After the state-by-state breakdown, the total number of reports were

added together from each state and the total composite for the region

appears after the state-by-state breakdown. Please note the following

assumptions in reviewing the data:

-All reports are of wind measurements 58 MPH or greater, wind damage

from thunderstorms or Hail 3/4" in Diameter or larger.

-Damage from tropical systems was no taken into account in this data.

-All data was compiled from Storm Data and are leveraged from Local

Storm Report products which are derived from YOUR reports.

-It is possible that some severe weather reports for certain areas

were combined if the reports were close to each other geographically

or there were errors in having the data transferred from the NWS

products into Storm Data.

-Numbers were compiled manually and may have slight errors.

-It is noted that the number of spotters has increased substantially

over the past 10 years and may be resulting in higher numbers of

reports that went undetected 10 years ago.

-Some years slightly outside of the 1993-2003 timeframe were analyzed

to see if they compared to 2003 and those years had more reports than

this year to date.

-Data for the summer of 2003 is not in Storm Data and was compiled from

NWS Taunton Local Storm Reports and information from forecasters.

Here are the reports by state and the total number of severe reports

across the specified area and amount of reports through July 11th

of each year:

Massachusetts Data (Including Berkshire County, Mass.):

1993: 26 Total Severe Weather Reports; 1 Report prior to 7/11/93.

1994: 74 Total Severe Weather Reports; 37 Reports prior to 7/11/94.

1995: 102 Total Severe Weather Reports; 42 Reports prior to 7/11/95.

1996: 59 Total Severe weather Reports; 46 Reports prior to 7/11/96.

1997: 114 Total Severe Weather Reports; 77 Reports prior to 7/11/97.

1998: 131 Total Severe Weather Reports; 88 Reports prior to 7/11/98.

1999: 78 Total Severe Weather Reports; 29 Reports prior to 7/11/99.

2000: 97 Total Severe Weather Reports; 69 Reports prior to 7/11/00.

2001: 113 Total Severe Weather Reports; 98 Reports prior to 7/11/01.

2002: 93 Total Severe Weather Reports; 53 Reports prior to 7/11/02.

2003: 11 Total Severe Weather Reports as of 7/11/03.

Rhode Island Data:

1993: 2 Total Severe Weather Reports; 0 Reports prior to 7/11/93.

1994: 8 Total Severe Weather Reports; 5 Reports prior to 7/11/94.

1995: 21 Total Severe Weather Reports; 12 Reports prior to 7/11/95.

1996: 7 Total Severe Weather Reports; 5 Reports prior to 7/11/96.

1997: 20 Total Severe Weather Reports; 10 Reports prior to 7/11/97.

1998: 9 Total Severe Weather Reports; 8 Reports prior to 7/11/98.

1999: 6 Total Severe Weather Reports; 0 Reports Prior to 7/11/99.

2000: 14 Total Severe Weather Reports; 7 Reports Prior to 7/11/00.

2001: 4 Total Severe Weather Reports and all Reports prior to 7/11/01.

2002: 7 Total Severe Weather Reports; 3 Reports Prior to 7/11/02.

2003: No Reports of Severe Weather yet this year.

Southern New Hampshire Data: (Cheshire and Hillsborough Counties Only)

1993: 1 Total Severe Weather Report; 0 Reports prior to 7/11/93.

1994: 8 Total Severe weather Reports; 4 Reports prior to 7/11/94.

1995: 5 Total Severe Weather Reports; 2 Reports prior to 7/11/95.

1996: 6 Total Severe Weather Reports all prior to 7/11/96.

1997: 12 Total Severe Weather Reports all prior to 7/11/97.

1998: 24 Total Severe Weather Reports; 18 Reports prior to 7/11/98.

1999: 8 Total Severe Weather Reports; 3 Reports prior to 7/11/99.

2000: 9 Total Severe Weather Reports; 3 Reports prior to 7/11/00.

2001: 9 Total Severe weather Reports all prior to 7/11/01.

2002: 16 Total Severe Weather Reports; 12 Reports prior to 7/11/02.

2003: No Reports of Severe Weather yet this year.

Connecticut Data: (Hartford, Tolland and Windham Counties Only)

1993: 8 Total Severe Weather Reports; 0 Reports prior to 7/11/93.

1994: 17 Total Severe Weather Reports; 13 Reports prior to 7/11/94.

1995: 31 Total Severe Weather Reports; 24 Reports prior to 7/11/95.

1996: 13 Total Severe Weather Reports; 12 Reports prior to 7/11/96.

1997: 17 Total Severe Weather Reports; 11 Reports prior to 7/11/97.

1998: 7 Total Severe Weather Reports; 3 Reports prior to 7/11/98.

1999: 20 Total Severe Weather Reports; 5 Reports prior to 7/11/99.

2000: 20 Total Severe Weather Reports; 15 Reports prior to 7/11/00.

2001: 16 Total Severe Weather Reports; 11 Reports prior to 7/11/01.

2002: 23 Total Severe Weather Reports; 11 Reports prior to 7/11/02.

2003: 2 Total Severe Weather Reports as of 7/11/03.

Total Severe Weather Reports from Massachusetts (Including Berkshire

County), Rhode Island, Connecticut (Hartford, Tolland and Windham

Counties), and Southern New Hampshire (Cheshire and Hillsborough

Counties):

1993: 37 Total Severe Weather Reports; 1 Report prior to 7/11/93.

1994: 107 Total Severe Weather Reports; 59 Reports prior to 7/11/94.

1995: 159 Total Severe Weather Reports; 80 Reports prior to 7/11/95.

1996: 85 Total Severe Weather Reports; 69 Reports prior to 7/11/96.

1997: 163 Total Severe Weather Reports; 110 Reports prior to 7/11/97.

1998: 171 Total Severe Weather Reports; 117 Reports prior to 7/11/98.

1999: 112 Total Severe Weather Reports; 37 Reports prior to 7/11/99.

2000: 140 Total Severe Weather Reports; 94 Reports prior to 7/11/00.

2001: 142 Total Severe Weather Reports; 122 Reports prior to 7/11/01.

2002: 139 Total Severe Weather Reports; 124 Reports prior to 7/11/02.

2003: 13 Total Severe Weather Reports as of 7/11/03.

Per the above data, we are currently running well below any of the last

10 years for severe weather except for 1993 where only 1 report was

received through July 11th of that year. The 13 reports received so

far in 2003, however, was far below any other year to date.

The second lowest year was 1999 with 37 reports through July 11th

followed by 1994 with 59 reports through July 11th and 69 reports

of severe weather occurring through July 11th in 1996. In 1999, a

torrid pace of severe weather in July through early August caused

severe weather reporting to look more in line with the remaining

years in the analysis.

On the current pace, 2003 is expected to fall well short of the last

5 years as far as the number of severe weather reports. The total

number of reports looks to be on pace with 1993, and 1996 with the

possibility of under 100 severe weather reports received.

Despite the lower than normal year so far, SKYWARN Spotters and

Coordinators need to remian vigilant as we are still only half way

through severe weather season. One trend that has been noted for this

year across the country is for severe weather to average below normal

and then a sudden pattern shift caused numerous severe weather

convective events over parts of the country over a short period of

time. Prior to the severe weather outbreaks that occurred in late

April through Mid-May across the Midwest and Southeast US, the US

was running well below normal for severe weather. When the

outbreaks hit in late April through Mid-May, it was the largest

outbreak of tornadoes and severe weather in US history. Also, Spotters

and Coordinators will need to keep a wary eye on the Tropics as we

enter August and September which are peak months for hurricane season

and the timeframe where New England gets hit by the most tropical

systems.

Strong Thunderstorms Pass Just offshore of Cape Cod on 7/11/03...

Strong thunderstorms passed just offshore of Cape Cod early Friday

Afternoon July 11th with a Special Marine Warning issued on the cell

as it went through Cape Cod Bay and skirted the Provincetown and

Truro, Massachusetts area of outer Cape Cod. The strong cell was

associated with a warm front that attempted to pass through the area

on Friday.

Given the storm's potency, a check of the area for any strong winds

or hail was done through the efforts of Frank O'Laughlin, WQ1O, Cape

Cod ARES District Emergency Coordinator. No reports of reportable

criteria was received on land but two shipping vessels 7 miles southwest

of Provincetown, Massachusetts reported Pea Sized Hail and measured

wind gusts to 55 MPH. That strong part of the cell appeared to stay

offhshore and over the coastal waters.

Special thanks to Frank O'Laughlin, WQ1O, for his help in obtaining

these reports and verifying that no reportable or severe criteria

reports were received over Outer Cape Cod.

Rip Currents: A Danger that Can Occur on Southern New England Beaches...

This year has seen a danger that can occasionally occur on Southern

New England beaches and has been highlighted at times in Special

Weather Statements from NWS Taunton and it concerns rip currents.

Rip Currents can be dangerous particularly on beaches that are most

exposed to higher surf and waves from the open ocean. Rip currents

typically occur with strong storms or conditions just offshore of the

coast-line help to churn up the ocean. Rip currents can sometimes be

seen as a murky discoloration of the water or lower and choppier wave

heights cutting through the surf. They typically occur about 2 hours

before low tide through 4 hours after low tide. If a swimmer is caught

in a rip current, they should swim parallel to shore to get out of the

current and not against it.

Typically, beaches along Outer Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket,

Newport and Narragansett Beaches in Rhode Island as well as Horseneck

Beach in Westport, Massachusetts are most exposed to the danger of

rip currents due to their maximum exposure to the ocean. Just last week

on Horseneck Beach, numerous rescues were required and unfortunately

1 person was killed due to the rip currents.

The National Weather Service in Taunton has setup contacts with beach

patrols across Southern New England. Just recently, through the efforts

of Mike Leger-N1YLQ, contact has now been made with the Horseneck Beach

team of lifeguards so that coordination can take place in case rip

currents occur as well as other hazards such as thunderstorms that

can cause major issues on area beaches. NWS Taunton has already setup

contacts with beach patrols in Narragansett and Newport, RI.

If you go to Southern New England beaches, remember the danger from

rip currents and follow the advice of lifeguards on the beach so that

you can stay out of harm's way.

Hurricane Watch Net Activates Briefly Due to Claudette...

The Hurricane Watch Net Activated Briefly to support parts of the

Yucatan Peninsula as Claudette neared hurricane strength but fell

just short of hurricane status. Currently, the Hurricane Watch Net

is montioring the progress of Claudette as she has the potential

to make landfall somewhere along the Western Gulf of Mexico coast

as a minimal hurricane in approximately 2 days. Below is a bulletin

from the ARRL concerning the Hurricane Watch Net's activation and

monitoring of the system along with possible activation of the

SATERN (Salvation Army Team) due to Claudette:

ARLB046 Hurricane Watch Net, SATERN keeping an eye on Claudette

The Hurricane Watch Net secured operations on 14.325 MHz at 0130z on

July 11 for Tropical Storm Claudette. The storm had been predicted

to reach hurricane status, but it is now diminishing in strength as

it brushes past the Yucatan Peninsula. The activation for Claudette

at 1800z on July 10 was the first of the 2003 hurricane season.

HWN members share storm information with forecasters via WX4NHC at

the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Net Manager Mike Pilgrim, K5MP, has cautioned, however, that once

the storm clears the Yucatan and heads into the warm waters of the

Gulf of Mexico, it again could become a major threat to Gulf Coast

communities. "We will continue to monitor progress of this storm and

will advise if activation of the Hurricane Watch Net might again be

called for," Pilgrim said. "In the meantime, interested parties

should access the weather advisories available on the Net's Web site

at http://www.hwn.org or otherwise monitor the Maritime Mobile

Service Net on 14.300 MHz (and on the web at http://www.mmsn.org/)

for frequent updates of the tropical weather outlook."

At 1200z, Claudette was reported heading north-northwest at 12 MPH

with maximum sustained winds of 55 MPH.

Meanwhile, National Salvation Army Team Emergency Radio Network

(SATERN) Coordinator Pat McPherson, WW9E, is asking SATERN personnel

in its Southern Territory to remain alert to further activation of

the Hurricane Watch Net and to support net activities by monitoring

and relaying if needed.

"If Claudette becomes a hurricane and makes landfall, it is likely

that SATERN will activate to pass emergency traffic and handle

health and welfare," McPherson said. The SATERN net operates on

14.265 MHz.

Tropical Storm Claudette Coordinates...

Tropical Storm Claudette formed last week over the Carribean Sea and

tracked over the Yucatan Peninsula as a tropical storm. As of this

newsletter writing, Claudette threatens the Western Gulf of Mexico

as either a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane. Below is

the latest list of coordinates on Claudette, all wind speeds given

in Knots:

Date: 08-13 JUL 2003

Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE

ADV LAT LON TIME WIND PR STAT

1 15.00 -71.30 07/08/21Z 45 1006 TROPICAL STORM

1A 15.10 -71.90 07/09/00Z 45 1006 TROPICAL STORM

2 15.20 -73.10 07/09/03Z 55 1000 TROPICAL STORM

2A 15.10 -74.40 07/09/06Z 60 1000 TROPICAL STORM

3 15.30 -75.50 07/09/09Z 60 1004 TROPICAL STORM

3A 15.30 -76.90 07/09/12Z 60 1004 TROPICAL STORM

4 15.50 -77.60 07/09/15Z 55 1004 TROPICAL STORM

4A 15.80 -78.60 07/09/18Z 55 1002 TROPICAL STORM

5 16.00 -79.70 07/09/21Z 55 1002 TROPICAL STORM

5A 16.10 -80.20 07/10/00Z 55 1002 TROPICAL STORM

6 16.30 -81.00 07/10/03Z 50 1004 TROPICAL STORM

6A 16.50 -82.00 07/10/06Z 50 1004 TROPICAL STORM

7 16.80 -82.50 07/10/09Z 50 996 TROPICAL STORM

7A 17.00 -83.10 07/10/12Z 50 996 TROPICAL STORM

8 17.80 -83.60 07/10/15Z 60 993 TROPICAL STORM

8A 18.30 -83.60 07/10/18Z 60 993 TROPICAL STORM

9 18.60 -84.20 07/10/21Z 60 993 TROPICAL STORM

9A 19.30 -84.50 07/11/00Z 60 993 TROPICAL STORM

10 20.00 -85.80 07/11/03Z 45 1008 TROPICAL STORM

10A 20.70 -86.60 07/11/06Z 45 1008 TROPICAL STORM

11 21.00 -86.90 07/11/09Z 50 1008 TROPICAL STORM

11A 21.60 -87.00 07/11/12Z 45 1008 TROPICAL STORM

12 21.60 -87.40 07/11/15Z 45 1008 TROPICAL STORM

12A 21.90 -88.00 07/11/18Z 45 1009 TROPICAL STORM

13 22.40 -88.70 07/11/21Z 45 1009 TROPICAL STORM

14 22.90 -89.60 07/12/03Z 45 1008 TROPICAL STORM

15 23.60 -90.50 07/12/09Z 45 1007 TROPICAL STORM

16 24.10 -91.20 07/12/15Z 45 1006 TROPICAL STORM

17 24.70 -91.10 07/12/21Z 45 1008 TROPICAL STORM

18 25.10 -91.90 07/13/03Z 45 1005 TROPICAL STORM

19 25.00 -92.50 07/13/09Z 45 1005 TROPICAL STORM

20 25.40 -92.40 07/13/15Z 50 996 TROPICAL STORM

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)

ARES SKYWARN Coordinator

Southeast Massachusetts ARES District Emergency Coordinator

SEMARA ARES Emergency Coordinator

Pager #: (508) 354-3142

Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)

Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)

Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)

Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com

http://users.rcn.com/rmacedo

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