Storm Coordination Message #2 – Monday August 15th, 2011 Event

Hello to all..

..Flood Potential Increasing across portions of the NWS Taunton Coverage Area later this afternoon and tonight..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect through this evening for Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island, Hillsborough County New Hampshire, Central and Eastern Massachusetts as well as Western Hampshire, Western Hampden, and Western Franklin Counties of Massachusetts. The Flood Watch is for urban areas and small streams in the region..
..Flood Advisories have been issued for portions of the area for urban and poor drainage flooding and more advisories could be issued throughout the day today..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is possible to likely for later this afternoon and evening based on current trends on radar and spotter reports..

At 1135 AM, Doppler Radar showed widrespread moderate rainfall over much of the region with moderate to heavy rainfall over Rhode Island and Eastern Connecticut into Central Massachusetts. There is also a swath of heavy rainfall south and east of Long Island New York extending a couple hundred miles offshore funnelling into portions of Eastern Connecticut and Rhode Island. Widespread rainfall of 1-2″ has occurred with isolated 3 to 4″ rainfall amounts in the area. Some rainfall amounts as of 1050 AM as gathered from the Amateur Radio APRS and CWOP program are as follows:

Rainfall Reports 2″ or More as of Monday 8/15 at 1050 AM:
Charlestown, RI: 3.88″ (3.29″ of rain in 3 hours from 545 to 845 AM)
Westerly, RI: 2.79″
Canton, CT: 2.29″
Worcester, Mass: 2.26″
Hampton, CT: 2.11″
West Simsbury, CT: 2.04″

Rainfall Reports 2″ or More as of Monday 8/15 at 1050 AM:
Danielson, CT: 1.45″
Southington, CT: 1.91″
Berlin, CT: 1.88″
East Hartford, CT: 1.36″
Hebron, CT: 1.19″
Sturbridge, Mass: 1.03″
Goshen, Mass: 1.06″
Easthampton, Mass: 1.31″
Auburn, Mass: 1.12″
Coventry, RI: 1.69″

With the potential for flooding increased, SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely for later this afternoon into this evening. This will likely be the last complete coordination message on this event. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement, Flood Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Flood Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator          
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Monday August 15th, 2011 Storm/Rainfall Event

Hello to all..

..Strong Storm System will bring another round of Heavy Rainfall to Southern New England, particularly in portions of Western New England..
..A Flood Watch is in effect from Midnight Tonight through Monday Evening for Western Hampshire, Western Hampden and Western Hampden Counties of Massachusetts. Areas outside of the flood watch area particularly in the remainder of Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut would have the potential for urban/poor drainage flooding depending on the axis of heavy rainfall..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will be utilized for rainfall reports meeting SKYWARN Reporting criteria and any flooding. Ops at NWS Taunton may be utilized if the threat for flooding becomes more widespread..

At 430 PM, Doppler Radar has shown rainfall over Connecticut and extending into portions of Western and Central Massachusetts and Western Rhode Island. Heavier Rainfall has occurred over the New York City and Long Island area into New Jersey. Some locations received almost 8″ of rainfall in Nassau County New York.

Rainfall of the magnitude over Long Island New York is not expected in the NWS Taunton County Warning Area, however, widespread 1-3″ rainfall is expected over much of the NWS Taunton County Warning Area especially in Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut with amounts of 2-4″ of Rain expected over Western Franklin, Western Hampshire and Western Franklin Counties where a Flood Watch is in effect from Midnight tonight through Monday Evening. In the flood watch area, urban/poor drainage flooding and river/stream flooding are the main threats. Areas just outside of the flood watch particularly in Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut may see urban/poor drainage flooding but less likely to see river and stream flooding. Urban areas of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island may also have urban/poor drianage flooding depending on the amount of rainfall and the timeframe with which the rainfall falls.

SKYWARN Self-Activation to monitor for rainfall reports meeting SKYWARN reportable crtieria and any flooding is the most likely way for this storm to be handled. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible if the threat for flooding is more widespread. This will be the only coordination message on this event unless the threat for flooding increases. If the threat increases, another coordination message will be issued Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator          
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday August 10th, 2011 Severe Weather Threat

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across much of the NWS Taunton County Warning Area for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening with a secondary cold front and cooler air aloft as the atmosphere destabilizes later this morning into the afternoon over much of the region. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..Threat timeframe still appears to be after 4 PM, however, radar trends will need to be monitored in case the threat is a bit earlier than expected due to activity in Central New York currently moving slowly eastward..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely later this afternoon and this evening..

Overnight, heavy rainfall affected portions of Northwest Connecticut, Central and Northeast Massachusetts and Southeast New Hampshire with widespread 1-3″ rainfall with slightly higher amounts over this area. This may have resulted in urban flooding during the overnight hours.

Satellite imagery shows clearing moving in over Western Massachusetts, Connecticut, parts of Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts with mostly clear conditions over Eastern New York State. This clearing should move into Central Massachusetts and the remainder of Eastern Massachusetts later this morning. Doppler Radar is showing some scattered heavy shower and possible isolated thunderstorm activity over Central New York just east of the Finger Lakes moving slowly eastward. This activity will need to be monitored to see if it organizes and picks up speed as wind shear profiles increase over the area.

Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible for much of the NWS Taunton County Warning Area as we get into later this afternoon and evening. Cooling aloft and sufficient wind shear profiles with likely heating and destablization given current satellite imagery showing clearing moving in the area are supporting factors to isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm activity. A possible limiting factor will be drying and a drop of the dewpoints. That situation occurred last Tuesday August 2nd and limited the severe weather potential though isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms did occur on that day over Eastern Massachusetts. Threat timeframe looks to be after 4 PM today though an earlier start time will need to be monitored depending on the activity in Central New York State east of the Finger Lakes.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely today. This will be the last complete coordination message on this threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below are the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator          
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday August 10th, 2011 Severe Weather Threat

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible late Wednesday Afternoon and Evening over the NWS Taunton County Warning Area particularly interior locations. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. Threat timeframe will be after 4 PM Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..
..Threat will be determined on atmosphere destablization after rain overnight into Wednesday Morning moves out of the area and the location of a cold air pool aloft over the region. Wind Shear profiles would be favorable for severe weather if sufficient destablization occurs..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible on Wednesday. A more complete coordination message will be posted by 830 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator          
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2A – Tuesday August 2nd, 2011 Severe Weather Threat

Hello to all..

..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton has commenced for potential severe weather development over Southeast New Hampshire, Central and Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Damaging Winds and Large Hail are the primary threats. This will be the last coordination message on today’s event. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement highlighting today’s potential..

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1108021424.wwus81.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator          
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday August 2nd, 2011 Severe Weather Threat

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely today across Southeast New Hampshire, Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded Southeast New Hampshire, Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island to a Slight Risk for Severe Weather Today and NWS Taunton is in agreement. Western areas may see an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm but the main threat for today should be in Eastern New England..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely today anytime after Noon today..

Satellite imagery shows clear skies over the region this morning. The Cold front remains back into Eastern New York and because of its slower movement, this resulted in most of the severe weather being in Western New England on Monday and will set the stage for a second day of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The main threat for today should be over Southeast New Hampshire, Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island where NWS Taunton and SPC are in agreement on a Slight Risk for severe weather today. An isolated strong or severe thunderstorm or two could occur in Western parts of the NWS Taunton County Warning area depending on the movement of the front and how quickly it moves into the area. If its more towards early afternoon, an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm will be possible but if its more toward morning, this should reduce the threat in western areas. Temperatures aloft will remain cold and wind shear profiles will be stronger today than yesterday. Instability will not be quite as high as yesterday due to lower dewpoints but the cold pool aloft along with stronger wind shear profiles will compensate for somewhat lower instability today. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban and poor drainage flooding will be the primary threats.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely anytime after noon today. This will be the last complete coordination message on today’s threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator          
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday August 2nd, 2011 Severe Weather Event

Hello to all..

..After today’s severe weather was confined largely to Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Connecticut, another conditional threat for severe weather with isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms exists for portions of Southern New Hampshire and Northeast Massachusetts from Norfolk County Massachusetts northward. Damaging Winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..Threat is contingent on another wave of low pressure/upper level system moving close enough to the area. Models have trended the system towards the Northeast portions of the NWS Taunton County Warning Area. It is noted that shear profiles are stronger Tuesday than Monday. If sufficient destablization occurs with a trigger, there should be isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in the northeast portions of the region. Threat timeframe is after 2 PM ET..
..SPC has portions of Southern New England in a ‘See Text’/5% severe weather risk category for Tuesday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely on Tuesday. Further details will be posted in a coordination message issued by 8 AM Tuesday..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1108012258.nwus51.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1108011715.acus02.html

Also, here is the Monday August 1st Local Storm Report from today’s severe weather event:

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1108012258.nwus51.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator          
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2A – Monday August 1st, 2011 Severe Weather Threat

Hello to all..

..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence no later than 1230 PM lasting through early evening for scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms that will develop over the area this afternoon and evening. Damaging Winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the main threats..

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

Read more

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Severe Weather Threat for Monday August 1st, 2011

Hello to all..

..Scattered to Numerous Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely this Afternoon and Evening across the entire NWS Taunton County Warning Area. Damaging Winds, Large Hail, and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and NWS Taunton remain in agreement on a Slight Risk for Severe Weather Covering the entire region with a threat timeframe between 1 and 8 PM Today..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely starting as early as Noon Today..

At 630 AM Satellite Imagery shows mainly clear skies over Southern New England. A small complex of strong to severe thunderstorms is present over Southwest and South-Central New York spreading southeast. This is responsible for some cloud cover over Central New York that is also moving southeast. The cloud cover may clip parts of Western New England but overall heating and destablization is expected over the region setting up scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms over the region this afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching upper level low pressure system and cold front that will swing through the region today. Wind shear profiles will not be as strong as some of the prior event this summer and are a bit marginal but combined with the expected instability and cooling temperatures aloft, scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across much of the NWS Taunton County Warning Area Monday afternoon and evening with damaging winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding as the main threats. SPC and NWS Taunton remain in agreement on a Slight Risk for severe weather across the entire NWS Taunton County Warning Area with a threat timeframe between 1-8 PM Monday.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Monday anytime after Noon. This will be the last complete coordination message on today’s threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below are the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and the SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator          
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday August 1st 2011 Severe Weather Threat

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely Monday Afternoon and Evening across the entire NWS Taunton County Warning Area. Damaging Winds, Large Hail, and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..Storm Prediction Center and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a Slight Risk for Severe Weather Covering the entire region with a threat timeframe between 1 and 8 PM Monday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely starting as early as Noon Monday..

An upper level low pressure system and associated cold front or trough will move through Southern New England during the time of max heating on Monday Afternoon and Evening. While there could be some mid and high level clouds to start the day, these are expected to move offshore and allow for heating and destablization across much of the region. Wind shear profiles will not be as strong as some of the prior event this summer and are a bit marginal but combined with the expected instability and cooling temperatures aloft, isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across much of the NWS Taunton County Warning Area Monday afternoon and evening with damaging winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding as the main threats. SPC and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a Slight Risk for severe weather across the entire NWS Taunton County Warning Area with a threat timeframe between 1-8 PM Monday.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Monday anytime after Noon. Another coordination message will be issued by 830 AM Monday to update the threat. Below are the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and the SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1107311733.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator         
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org

Read more

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