Remnants of Henri Coordination Message #1 – Monday 8/23/21 Flood and Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..The remnants of Henri currently west of Southern New England will track back eastward over Southern New England bringing with it the potential for heavy rainfall with more flooding and flash flooding issues and the possibility of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and the possibility of an isolated weak tornado or two. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of central and eastern Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..A Flood Watch remains in effect through Monday Evening for Northern Connecticut, all of Rhode Island and Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden and Worcester Counties of Massachusetts for renewed rainfall over already soaked areas causing the potential for another round of urban, poor drainage, river, stream and urban flooding..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flash flood potential for late Monday Morning to Monday Evening..
..The Post Tropical Storm Henri Coordination Message will be done later tonight or Tuesday depending on the impacts from Henri’s remnants on the region today and how significant they are. Reports, pictures and videos of Tropical Storm Henri wind damage and flooding can be sent as a reply to this email, via the WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feed or through the email address pics@nsradio.org..
..This will be the only coordination message on Monday’s flood and severe weather potential in association with the remnants of Henri. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hurricane Henri Coordination Message #5 – Sunday 8/22/21-Monday 8/23/21 Henri Impacts

Hello to all…

..Henri has intensified into a hurricane. Hurricane Henri is on track and may strengthen further and will then affect Southern New England Sunday into Monday as either a Category-1 hurricane or a strong tropical storm with a landfall somewhere between Eastern Long Island New York and Eastern Connecticut through Eastern Rhode Island. Damaging winds, the threat for severe weather and isolated tornadoes along and to the east of the track, heavy rainfall and flooding and coastal storm surge flooding are all potential threats..
..A Hurricane Warning is now in effect from Watch Hill Rhode Island to West of Westport Massachusetts and includes Washington and Newport Counties of Rhode Island. In this area, the potential for sustained or wind gusts to the hurricane force will cause widespread pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages in this area..
..A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Watch Hill Rhode Island to Chatham Massachusetts and includes Hartford, Tolland, Windham, Providence, Kent, and Bristol Counties of Rhode Island, Southern Bristol, and Southern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. In this area, sustained winds of 30-50 MPH with gusts to 60-70 MPH with isolated higher wind gusts will have the potential to cause widespread pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages in this area..
..A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts including Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket for the late Saturday Night to Monday timeframe with a Storm Surge Watch remaining in effect from Chatham to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts. Storm surge of 2-5 feet above tide levels will have the potential to cause widespread pockets of shore road flooding across the Storm Surge Warning area with those conditions possible in the storm surge watch area..
..A Flood Watch is in effect for Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island, Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden and Worcester Counties of Massachusetts from Saturday Evening through Monday Morning for 3-6″ of rain with isolated higher amounts. This rainfall can cause flooding of urban and poor drainage areas, rivers and streams particularly given the prior rainfall of the past 6-8 weeks..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for Sunday for the potential of thunderstorms mixing damaging winds down to the surface as well as the risk for isolated tornadoes..
..Remnants of Tropical Depression Fred caused significant heavy rainfall in portions of Connecticut, Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts on Thursday along with severe weather with two confirmed tornadoes in Clinton, Massachusetts and Thompson, Connecticut..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely the potential impacts of Henri for Sunday into Monday. ARES/RACES and other similar groups should closely monitor the progress of Henri and seek advice from their leadership. Pictures, videos and post storm damage reports from Thursday’s severe weather event and upcoming impacts from Henri can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and through the email address pics@nsradio.org..

For Thursday, the remnants of tropical depression Fred caused two confirmed tornadoes in Clinton, Massachusetts and Thompson, CT. A waterspout from the same parent cell that caused storm damage in Thompson, CT occurred in Webster, Massachusetts. Further details on these tornadoes can be seen in the Public Information Statement at the following link:

NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement – Thursday 8/19/21 Confirmed Tornadoes:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2108202338.nous41.html

Henri intensified into a hurricane as expected earlier today and some additional slight strengthening is likely overnight as he approaches our region. Henri has turned north-northeastward and will bend northward and then northwest and head on a path that will bring it just east of or over a part of Long Island New York and then the Southern New England coast somewhere between Eastern Connecticut/Eastern Long Island New York and Eastern Rhode Island. Model guidance has clustered more around this solution and range during the day which resulted in the eastward shift of the Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings. The headlines reflect the current watches, warnings and thinking. The key factors with Henri are as follows:

1.) The track of Henri and whether a westward trend in the guidance continues or settles on the current track or if some eastward shifts occur. The west side of Henri will experience some strong winds with heavy rain as the main threat while closest to the center and on the east side of the system will have the greater potential for damaging winds, and severe weather but less rainfall. The track will also affect which coastal areas will have the greatest risk for coastal storm surge flooding. As mentioned above, the model range of near or over Eastern Long Island into Eastern Connecticut to somewhere over Rhode Island is the guidance envelope as Henri closes in on the region.
2.) The intensity and structure of Henri are additional factors. All models strengthen Henri a bit more as it moves towards New England. Its peak intensity along with the size of the tropical storm force and hurricane force wind fields will also determine how strong the impacts are over the Southern New England coast and Southeast/Eastern New England. It is noted the wind field continues to expand along and to the east of the center meaning damaging winds along the east side of Henri will bring strong to damaging winds to inland portions of Southern New England though the strongest winds will be along the coastal areas.
3.) The speed of Henri’s approach to the region. Some models slow Henri’s approach toward Southern New England . Depending on when that slowing occurs and how close it is to the Southern New England coast will determine impacts over the region. Typically, tropical systems accelerate through Southern New England but the setup for Henri may actually have it slow near or over Southern New England or potentially south of New England. Right now this slowing is expected to be inland over Southern New England which may allow the duration of strong winds and heavy rainfall to occur for a longer than normal period than most tropical systems.
4.) The potential for thunderstorms particularly along and to the east side of the track that can bring damaging winds down to the surface and the potential for isolated tornadoes will bear watching Sunday Morning through Sunday evening given the SPC marginal risk for severe weather in much of Southern New England.

Its noted that the Amateur Radio Hurricane Watch Net and VoIP Hurricane Net will both be active for Henri. Please see net their web sites for more information:

Hurricane Watch Net:
https://hwn.org/

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://voipwx.net/
-Please note that the *NEW-ENG3* Echolink conference: node 9123/IRLP 9123 and the VoIP Hurricane Net Echolink conference node *WX_TALK* echolink conference node: 7203/IRLP 9219 system will be connected to form one large net for Henri.
SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely for the potential impacts of Henri for Sunday into Monday. ARES/RACES and other similar groups should closely monitor the progress of Henri and seek advice from their leadership. This will be the last coordination message as we move into operations mode. Pictures, videos and post storm damage reports from Thursday’s severe weather event and upcoming impacts from Henri can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and through the email address pics@nsradio.org.

Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Local Statement, Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook, Public Information Statement on Hurricane Safety Tips and the NHC Hurricane Henri advisory package:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Local Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210821_1730.html

NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement – Hurricane Safety Tips:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2108201412.nous41.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Henri Public Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt33.KNHC.html

Hurricane Henri Technical Discussion Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt43.KNHC.html

Hurricane Henri Forecast/Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt23.KNHC.html

Hurricane Henri Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font13.KNHC.html

Hurricane Henri Key Messages:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/092753.shtml?key_messages#contents

Hurricane Henri Storm Graphics:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/092753.shtml?cone#contents

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Tropical Storm Henri Coordination Message #4 – Henri Impacts Sunday 8/22/21-Monday 8/23/21

Hello to all…

..Tropical Storm Henri on track and poised to strengthen and affect Southern New England Sunday into Monday as either a Category-1 hurricane or a strong tropical storm with a landfall somewhere between Eastern Connecticut and Long Island NY or points west some time late Sunday. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion..
..A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Watch Hill Rhode Island to Westport Massachusetts and includes Kent, Washington, Bristol and Newport Counties of Rhode Island. The Hurricane Watch east of Westport Massachusetts is cancelled..
..A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Watch Hill Rhode Island to Woods Hole Massachusetts and includes Kent, Bristol and Washington Counties of Rhode Island, Southern Bristol, and Southern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts. In addition, Tropical Storm Warnings have been expanded into Northern Connecticut. Cape Cod and the Islands while not under a Tropical Storm Warning should still monitor for the potential of strong winds in addition to storm surge..
..A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts including Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket for the late Saturday Night to Monday timeframe with a Storm Surge Watch remaining in effect from Chatham to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect for Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island, Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden and Worcester Counties of Massachusetts from Saturday Evening through Monday Morning for 3-6″ of rain with isolated higher amounts. This rainfall can cause flooding of urban and poor drainage areas, rivers and streams particularly given the prior rainfall of the past 6-8 weeks..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for Sunday for the potential of thunderstorms mixing damaging winds down to the surface as well as the risk for isolated tornadoes..
..Additional Watches and Warnings will be required for other parts of Southern New England in future updates..
..Remnants of Tropical Depression Fred caused significant heavy rainfall in portions of Connecticut, Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts on Thursday along with severe weather with two confirmed tornadoes in Clinton, Massachusetts and Thompson, Connecticut..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely the potential impacts of Henri for Sunday into Monday. ARES/RACES and other similar groups should closely monitor the progress of Henri and seek advice from their leadership. Pictures, videos and post storm damage reports from Thursday’s severe weather event and upcoming impacts from Henri can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and through the email address pics@nsradio.org..

For Thursday, the remnants of tropical depression Fred caused two confirmed tornadoes in Clinton, Massachusetts and Thompson, CT. A waterspout from the same parent cell that caused storm damage in Thompson, CT occurred in Webster, Massachusetts. Further details on these tornadoes can be seen in the Public Information Statement at the following link:

NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement – Thursday 8/19/21 Confirmed Tornadoes:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2108202338.nous41.html

Tropical Storm Henri should reach hurricane strength later Saturday. Henri has turned northward and will bend north-northeastward before resuming a northward and then northwest and/or west-northwest portion and head on a path that will bring it over a part of Long Island New York and then the Southern New England coast. There remains conflicting signals in the weather model guidance. Some models are potentially trying to pull Henri further into New York City and possibly New Jersey while other reliably model guidance are into Eastern Long Island NY to the Connecticut/Rhode Island border through Connecticut or even into Eastern Rhode Island offshore of Long Island. This gives conflicting signals on the direct impacts to Southern New England but some will definitely occur. The severity of the impacts including the potential for tropical storm to possibly minimal category-1 hurricane potential remains but it is conflicted given the current model guidance. The headlines reflect the current watches, warnings and thinking. The key factors over the next several days are as follows:

1.) The track of Henri and whether a westward trend in the guidance continues or settles on the current track or if some eastward shifts occur. The west side of Henri will experience some strong winds with heavy rain as the main threat while closest to the center and on the east side of the system will have the greater potential for damaging winds, and severe weather but less rainfall. The track will also affect which coastal areas will have the greatest risk for coastal storm surge flooding. As mentioned above there is still spread in the guidance with conflicting signals regarding the impacts.
2.) The intensity and structure of Henri are additional factors. All models strengthen Henri significantly as it moves northward towards New England. Its peak intensity along with the size of the tropical storm force and hurricane force wind fields will also determine how strong the impacts are over the Southern New England coast and Southeast/Eastern New England.
3.) The speed of Henri’s approach to the region. Some models slow Henri’s approach toward Southern New England . Depending on when that slowing occurs and how close it is to the Southern New England coast will determine impacts over the region. Typically, tropical systems accelerate through Southern New England but the setup for Henri may actually have it slow near or over Southern New England or potentially south of New England. This might allow for more weakening of Henri due to cooler waters but could extend the impacts of the system over a longer duration and where it slows and how close it is to the region when it slows down will determine the extent of Henri’s impacts. Regardless of the speed, impacts in the area from heavy rainfall and flash flooding along and to the west of the track and damaging winds, severe weather and coastal storm surge flooding along and east of the track are likely.
4.) The potential for thunderstorms particularly along and to the east side of the track that can bring damaging winds down to the surface and the potential for isolated tornadoes will bear watching Sunday Morning through Sunday evening given the SPC marginal risk for severe weather in much of Southern New England.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely for the potential impacts of Henri for Sunday into Monday. ARES/RACES and other similar groups should closely monitor the progress of Henri and seek advice from their leadership. The next coordination message on Henri will be posted by 1100 PM Saturday Evening. Pictures, videos and post storm damage reports from Thursday’s severe weather event and upcoming impacts from Henri can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and through the email address pics@nsradio.org. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Local Statement, Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook, Public Information Statement on Hurricane Safety Tips and the NHC Tropical Storm Henri advisory package:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Local Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement – Hurricane Safety Tips:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2108201412.nous41.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt33.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Henri Technical Discussion Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt43.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Henri Forecast/Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt23.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Henri Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font13.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Henri Key Messages:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/092753.shtml?key_messages#contents

Tropical Storm Henri Storm Graphics:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/092753.shtml?cone#contents

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Tropical Storm Henri Coordination Message #3 – Sunday 8/21/21-Monday 8/22/21 Henri Potential Impacts

Hello to all…

..Tropical Storm Henri on track and poised to strengthen and affect Southern New England Sunday into Monday as either a Category-1 hurricane or a strong tropical storm with a landfall somewhere between Eastern Connecticut and Long Island NY to Cape Cod some time late Sunday. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion..
..A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Watch Hill Rhode Island to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts and includes Kent, Washington, Bristol and Newport Counties of Rhode Island and Barnstable, Dukes, Nantucket, Southern Bristol and Southern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for the possibility of hurricane conditions in the watch area in the Sunday to Monday timeframe..
..A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from Watch Hill Rhode Island to Woods Hole Massachusetts and includes Kent, Bristol and Washington Counties of Rhode Island, Southern Bristol, and Southern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts..
..A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts including Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket for the late Saturday Night to Monday timeframe with a Storm Surge Watch remaining in effect from Chatham to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts..
..Additional Watches and Warnings will be required for other parts of Southern New England in future updates..
..Remnants of Tropical Depression Fred caused significant heavy rainfall in portions of Connecticut, Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts on Thursday along with severe weather with two confirmed tornadoes in Clinton, Massachusetts and Thompson, Connecticut..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely the potential impacts of Henri for Sunday into Monday. ARES/RACES and other similar groups should closely monitor the progress of Henri and seek advice from their leadership. Pictures, videos and post storm damage reports from Thursday’s severe weather event and upcoming impacts from Henri can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and through the email address pics@nsradio.org..

For Thursday, the remnants of tropical depression Fred caused two confirmed tornadoes in Clinton, Massachusetts and Thompson, CT. A waterspout from the same parent cell that caused storm damage in Thompson, CT occurred in Webster, Massachusetts. Further details on these tornadoes can be seen in the Public Information Statement at the following link:

NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement – Thursday 8/19/21 Confirmed Tornadoes:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2108202338.nous41.html

Tropical Storm Henri has started to strengthen and should reach hurricane strength Saturday Morning. Henri has turned northward and will bend north-northeastward before resuming a northward and then possible northwest and/or west-northwest portion and head on a path that will bring it over a part of Long Island New York and then the Southern New England coast. There appears to be more conflicting signals in the weather model guidance. Some models are potentially trying to pull Henri further into New York City and possibly New Jersey while other reliably model guidance are into Eastern Long Island NY to the Connecticut/Rhode Island border through Connecticut or even into Eastern Rhode Island offshore of Long Island. This gives conflicting signals on the direct impacts to Southern New England but some will definitely occur. The severity of the impacts including the potential for tropical storm to possibly minimal category-1 hurricane potential remains but it is conflicted given the current model guidance. The headlines reflect the current watches, warnings and thinking. The key factors over the next several days are as follows:

1.) The track of Henri and whether a westward trend in the guidance continues or settles on the current track or if some eastward shifts occur. The west side of Henri will experience some strong winds with heavy rain as the main threat while closest to the center and on the east side of the system will have the greater potential for damaging winds, and severe weather but less rainfall. The track will also affect which coastal areas will have the greatest risk for coastal storm surge flooding. As mentioned above there is still spread in the guidance with conflicting signals regarding the impacts.
2.) The intensity and structure of Henri are additional factors. All models strengthen Henri significantly as it moves northward towards New England. Its peak intensity along with the size of the tropical storm force and hurricane force wind fields will also determine how strong the impacts are over the Southern New England coast and Southeast/Eastern New England.
3.) The speed of Henri’s approach to the region. Some models slow Henri’s approach toward Southern New England . Depending on when that slowing occurs and how close it is to the Southern New England coast will determine impacts over the region. Typically, tropical systems accelerate through Southern New England but the setup for Henri may actually have it slow near or over Southern New England or potentially south of New England. This might allow for more weakening of Henri due to cooler waters but could extend the impacts of the system over a longer duration and where it slows and how close it is to the region when it slows down will determine the extent of Henri’s impacts. Regardless of the speed, impacts in the area from heavy rainfall and flash flooding along and to the west of the track and damaging winds, severe weather and coastal storm surge flooding along and east of the track are likely.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely for the potential impacts of Henri for Sunday into Monday. ARES/RACES and other similar groups should closely monitor the progress of Henri and seek advice from their leadership. The next coordination message on Henri will be posted by 1100 AM Saturday Morning. Pictures, videos and post storm damage reports from Thursday’s severe weather event and upcoming impacts from Henri can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and through the email address pics@nsradio.org. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Local Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Public Information Statement on Hurricane Safety Tips and the NHC Tropical Storm Henri advisory package:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Local Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement – Hurricane Safety Tips:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2108201412.nous41.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt33.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Henri Technical Discussion Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt43.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Henri Forecast/Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt23.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Henri Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font13.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Henri Key Messages:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/092753.shtml?key_messages#contents

Tropical Storm Henri Storm Graphics:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/092753.shtml?cone#contents

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Tropical Storm Henri Coordination Message #2 – Sunday 8/22/21-Monday 8/23/21 Henri Potential Impacts

Hello to all…

..Tropical Storm Henri poised to strengthen and affect Southern New England Sunday into Monday as either a Category-1 hurricane or a strong tropical storm with a landfall somewhere between Eastern Connecticut and Long Island NY to Cape Cod some time late Sunday. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion..
..A Hurricane Watch is in effect from New Haven Connecticut to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts and includes Kent, Washington, Bristol and Newport Counties of Rhode Island and Barnstable, Dukes, Nantucket, Southern Bristol and Southern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for hurricane conditions in the watch area in the Sunday to Monday timeframe..
..A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Flushing New York to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts including Nantucket, Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket for the Sunday to Monday timeframe..
..Additional Watches and Warnings will be required for other parts of Southern New England in future updates..
..Remnants of Tropical Depression Fred caused significant heavy rainfall in portions of Connecticut, Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts on Thursday along with severe weather with one confirmed tornado in Clinton, Massachusetts and a second possible tornado under investigation in Thompson, Connecticut..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely the potential impacts of Henri for Sunday into Monday. ARES/RACES and other similar groups should closely monitor the progress of Henri and seek advice from their leadership. Pictures, videos and post storm damage reports from Thursday’s severe weather event and upcoming impacts from Henri can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and through the email address pics@nsradio.org..

For Thursday, the remnants of tropical depression Fred caused one confirmed tornado in Clinton, Massachusetts with details to follow later today and a possible tornado in Thompson, CT. A waterspout from the same parent cell that caused storm damage in Thompson, CT occurred in Webster, Massachusetts. Further details and wrap-up from Thursday’s severe weather will be posted in this evening’s Henri coordination message.

Tropical Storm Henri has started to strengthen and should reach hurricane strength later tonight or Saturday Morning. Henri has turned northwest, turn northward and head on a path that will bring it over the Southern New England coast and possibly eastern Long Island New York as we move into Sunday and Monday. This will result in direct impacts from Henri as a strong tropical storm or minimal Category-1 hurricane. Model consensus has been converging on a solution over Southeast New England anywhere between Eastern Connecticut and Eastern Long Island New York to Southeast Massachusetts in latest model updates. The headlines reflect the current watches and thinking. The key factors over the next several days are as follows:

1.) The track of Henri and whether a westward trend in the guidance continues or settles on the current track or if some eastward shifts occur. The west side of Henri will experience some strong winds with heavy rain as the main threat while closest to the center and on the east side of the system will have the greater potential for damaging winds, and severe weather but less rainfall. The track will also affect which coastal areas will have the greatest risk for coastal storm surge flooding.
2.) The intensity and structure of Henri are additional factors. All models strengthen Henri significantly as it moves northward towards New England. Its peak intensity along with the size of the tropical storm force and hurricane force wind fields will also determine how strong the impacts are over the Southern New England coast and Southeast/Eastern New England.
3.) The speed of Henri’s approach to the region. Some models slow Henri’s approach toward Southern New England. Depending on when that slowing occurs and how close it is to the Southern New England coast will determine impacts over the region. Typically, tropical systems accelerate through Southern New England but the setup for Henri may actually have it slow near or over Southern New England. This might allow for more weakening of Henri due to cooler waters but could extend the impacts of the system over a longer duration and where it slows and how close it is to the region when it slows down will determine the extent of Henri’s impacts. Regardless of the speed, impacts in the area from heavy rainfall and flash flooding along and to the west of the track and damaging winds, severe weather and coastal storm surge flooding along and east of the track are likely.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely for the potential impacts of Henri for Sunday into Monday. ARES/RACES and other similar groups should closely monitor the progress of Henri and seek advice from their leadership. The next coordination message on Henri will be posted by 1100 PM Friday Evening. Pictures, videos and post storm damage reports from Thursday’s severe weather event and upcoming impacts from Henri can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and through the email address pics@nsradio.org. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Local Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Public Information Statement on Hurricane Safety Tips and the NHC Tropical Storm Henri advisory package:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Local Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement – Hurricane Safety Tips:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2108201412.nous41.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt33.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Henri Technical Discussion Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt43.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Henri Forecast/Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt23.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Henri Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font13.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Henri Key Messages:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/092753.shtml?key_messages#contents

Tropical Storm Henri Storm Graphics:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/092753.shtml?cone#contents

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Severe Weather & Tropical Storm Henri Coordination Message #1 – Thursday 8/19/21 Severe Weather & Sunday 8/22/21-Monday 8/23/21 Henri Potential Impacts

Hello to all…

..Remnants of Tropical Depression Fred will cause heavy downpours with the possibility of isolated severe thunderstorms through Thursday Afternoon. The greatest threat for heavy rainfall is in Western and Northern Massachusetts and West-Central Connecticut with the potential of urban and poor drainage flooding in some areas..
..The severe weather potential is across Southern New England with isolated strong to damaging winds and the low possibility for an isolated weak tornado due to the tropical air mass in place and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a marginal risk for severe weather across much of Southern New England for Thursday..
..There could be additional thunderstorm chances Friday and Saturday in Southern New England that will have future coordination messages if conditions warrant..
..Tropical Storm Henri must be monitored as we get into the Sunday into Monday timeframe for potential direct impacts to portions of Southern New England. It is too early to speak specific details and a more offshore solution cannot be totally ruled out but given current model runs and consensus, there are enough concerns for direct impacts and now is the time for non-Amateur Radio and Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters to monitor the progress of Henri on the region and for all residents of Southern New England to begin preparations for direct impacts from Henri..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the flood and severe weather potential for Thursday and will continue to monitor the progress and potential impacts on Tropical Storm Henri..

For Thursday, the remnants of tropical depression Fred is expected to bring the potential for heavy downpours in Western and Northern Massachusetts and West-Central Connecticut and the potential for isolated severe thunderstorms. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) There are areas of embedded heavy rainfall on radar with some signs of training particularly in Connecticut and this activity will spread north and east into parts of Western and Central Massachusetts. In those areas, there could be the increased risk of urban and poor drainage flooding.
2.) Any severe weather potential for this morning through late afternoon is contingent on thunderstorm activity being able to tap into stronger winds aloft. Any isolated weak tornado potential would be dependent on thunderstorms being able to become strong enough to tap into the shear and favorable rotation parameters aloft.

There could be some additional thunderstorm chances Friday and Saturday. These will be detailed as needed if they constitute a threat for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms in future messaging.

Attention then turns to Tropical Storm Henri. Henri is expected to change little in strength today as shear over Henri will be offset by very warm Atlantic Ocean waters along Henri’s path will allow it to hold its intensity. In about 24-36 hours, the shear will abate and allow Henri to intensify into a hurricane. Henri will then start to turn Northwest and Northward and head on a path that could bring it over or near the Southern New England coast as we move into Sunday and Monday. This could result in direct impacts from Henri as a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane. Model consensus has been converging on a solution near or over Southeast New England in latest model updates. The National Hurricane Center in Miami Florida is stating in its advisories that interests in the Northeast United States should monitor the progress of Henri. This wording has necessitated the start of coordination messages on Henri. The key factors over the next several days are as follows:

1.) The track of Henri and whether its near or over the Southern New England coast. The west side of Henri will experience some strong winds with heavy rain as the main threat while closest to the center and on the east side of the system will have the greater potential for damaging winds but less rainfall. The track will also affect which coastal areas will have the greatest risk for coastal storm surge flooding.
2.) The intensity of Henri is another factor. Some models strengthen Henri significantly as it moves northward towards New England. Its peak intensity will also determine how strong the impacts are over the Southern New England coast and Southeast/Eastern New England.
3.) The speed of Henri’s approach to the region. Some models slow Henri’s approach toward Southern New England. Depending on when that slowing occurs and how close it is to the Southern New England coast will determine impacts over the region. Typically, tropical systems accelerate through Southern New England but the setup for Henri may actually have it slow near or over Southern New England. This might allow for more weakening of Henri due to cooler waters but could extend the impacts of the system over a longer duration and where it slows and how close it is to the region when it slows down will determine the extent of Henri’s impacts.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the flood and severe weather potential for Thursday and will continue to monitor the progress and potential impacts on Tropical Storm Henri. The next coordination message on Henri and any severe weather potential for Friday or Saturday will be posted by 1100 PM Thursday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and the NHC Tropical Storm Henri advisory package:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt33.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Henri Technical Discussion Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt43.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Henri Forecast/Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt23.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Henri Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font13.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Henri Key Messages:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/092753.shtml?key_messages#contents

Tropical Storm Henri Storm Graphics:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/092753.shtml?cone#contents

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Severe Weather & Heat Coordination Message #3 – Saturday 8/14/21 Severe Weather & Heat Potential

Hello to all…

..Intense Heat and Humidity will come to an end Saturday Evening. With the intense heat and humidity, it will bring with it the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for Saturday Afternoon and Evening with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats..
..Thursday brought a fairly significant swath of severe weather to Western and Central Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut and Northwest Rhode Island. The potential for Saturday is a bit less than Thursday but still will need monitoring..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Central and Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Central and Eastern Massachusetts in a marignal risk for severe weather for Saturday Afternoon and Evening. Timeframe is from around 12-8 PM today for severe weather potential.
..Heat and humidity will be lower than the Wednesday to Friday time period but heat indices will approach 95 degrees around the I-95 corridor. Use caution if outside and needing to physically exert yourself. Drink plenty of liquids, take frequent breaks and seek cooler indoor locations wherever possible..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Saturday Afternoon and Evening and we are monitoring for any post storm damage reports, pictures and videos from Thursday’s severe weather event and that can be sent as a reply to this email via the WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and via the email address pics@nsradio.org..

The heat will be a bit less on Saturday than the Wednesday through Friday and will be below heat advisory thresholds. That said, heat indices will approach 95 degress around the I-95 corridor so use caution if outside, drink plenty of liquids and say cool today.

Thursday Afternoon and Evening brought a fairly significant swath of severe weather to Western and Central Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut and Northwest Rhode Island. We continue to look for post severe weather damage reports, pictures and videos any post storm damage reports, pictures and videos from Thursday’s severe weather event and that can be sent as a reply to this email via the WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and via the email address pics@nsradio.org. The NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report for Thursday and the Amateur Radio log from severe weather Thursday can be seen at the following links:

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2108122333.nwus51.html

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Report Log:
http://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/reports_8_12_21.pdf

Saturday will be the last day of heat and humidity in Southern New England as a strong cold front will sweep through the area this Saturday Afternoon and Evening. The strong cold front coupled with heat and humidity will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across Central and Eastern New England. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Whether activity in Southwest Connecticut will develop and produce strong to severe thunderstorms in the marginal risk area even though the timing would be a bit earlier in the day for central and eastern New England.
2.) Whether additional activity forms after the initial showers and thunderstorms from Southwest Connecticut sweeps through central and eastern New England and whether it can become strong to severe as cloud cover may reduce heating after the initial activity in Southwest Connecticut moves through the area.
3.) Instability will be present but not as strong as prior days. Wind shear, however, will be a bit stronger though the strongest wind shear will be behind the cold front so the key factor here is whether there will be enough overlap between wind shear and instability to allow for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Saturday Afternoon and Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC-Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Severe Weather & Heat Coordination Message #3 – Thursday 8/12/21-Saturday 8/14/21 Severe Weather & Heat Wave Potential

Hello to all…

..Intense Heat and Humidity is expected Thursday and Friday, possibly extending into Saturday. With the intense heat and humidity, it will bring with it the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms through this period with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut in a slight risk for severe weather with much of the corridor along and northwest of I-95 in a marginal risk for severe weather for Thursday Afternoon and evening. Timeframe is from 4-11 PM today for severe weather potential.
..SPC has also placed the same area in a marginal risk for severe weather for Friday Afternoon and Evening. A general thunderstorm with isolated severe thunderstorm risk extends into Saturday but will depend on convection strength and timing on Friday..
..An Excessive Heat Warning is now in effect from 12-8 PM Thursday and an Excessive Heat Watch is in effect from Thursday Evening through Friday Evening for Northern Connecticut, North-Central Rhode Island, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Hampshire, Eastern Hampden, Worcester, Essex, Middlesex, Suffolk, Norfolk, North-Central Bristol and North Central Plymouth Counties for heat indices of up to 105 or slightly higher for Thursday and heat indices of 102 or slightly higher for Friday.
..A Heat Advisory is now in effect from 12-8 PM Thursday and an Excessive Heat Watch is in effect from Thursday Evening through Friday Evening for Western Hampden, Western Hampshire and Western Hampden Counties of Massachusetts for heat indices up to 97-99 or slightly higher for Thursday into Friday..
..A Heat Advisory is in effect from 12-8 PM Thursday for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island for heat indices of up to 99 degrees..
..In all Excessive Heat Warning/Watch and Heat Advisory areas, use extreme caution if outside and needing to physically exert yourself. Drink plenty of liquids, take frequent breaks and seek cooler indoor locations wherever possible..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential during this heat wave Thursday through Saturday..

Intense heat and humidity will continue Thursday through Friday possibly extending to Saturday across the region. The worst heat is expected this Thursday Afternoon and Evening. The headlines depict the latest Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories and basic safety tips.

Severe weather potential increases today with very strong instability expected due to the intense heat and humidity. Wind shear levels are marginal but strong heating and strong to extreme levels of instability will allow for the development of strong to severe thunderstorms for Thursday Afternoon and Evening and offset the marginal/weaker wind shear. Activity is expected to evolve into a line of strong to severe thunderstorms progressing from Central and Eastern New York into Southern New England. Timing will determine how far east the threat extends with a timeframe for severe weather Thursday in the late afternoon through evening.

A marginal risk for severe weather exists on Friday Afternoon and Evening in the same areas affected by Thursday’s potential severe thunderstorms. Part of Friday’s potential will hinge on how severe weather evolves on Thursday. It will also hinge on the overlap of stronger jet dynamics and wind shear with instability levels in the atmosphere as there will be somewhat less instability owing to lower dewpoints and possibly slightly lower temperatures due to possible cloud cover from Thursday’s severe thunderstorms. This will be better understood in future outlooks.

Finally, there is a general thunderstorm risk for Saturday with a mention of isolated severe thunderstorms for the region. This will depend on Friday’s severe weather potential and the position and timing of a cold front which could sweep through late Friday Evening into early Saturday Morning ending the severe weather potential at that time or if that timing is more towards Saturday Afternoon and early evening which could result in another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. This potential for Saturday will be better understood by Friday Afternoon and evening.

Another coordination message will be posted either by 11 PM Thursday Evening or 11 AM Friday Morning if there is a change in heat headlines and for severe weather potential for Friday and Saturday as needed and time allows for an update as we monitor severe weather potential for late Thursday Afternoon and evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Excessive Heat Warning/Excessive Heat Watch/Heat Advisory Statement, NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC-Day-1, Day-2 and Day-3 Convective Outlooks..

NWS Boston/Norton Excessive Heat Warning/Excessive Heat Watch/Heat Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210812_0600.html

SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day3otlk_20210812_0730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Severe Weather & Heat Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday 8/11/21-Friday 8/13/21 Severe Weather & Heat Potential

Hello to all…

..Intense Heat and Humidity is expected Wednesday through Friday and possibly extending into Saturday. With the intense heat and humidity, it will bring with it the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms through this period..
..A Heat Advisory is now in effect for the entire NWS Boston/Norton Coverage area except for Cape Cod and the Islands from 11 AM-8 PM Wednesday for heat indices between 95-100 degrees. An Excessive Heat Watch is in effect from Thursday Morning through Friday Evening for the entire NWS Boston/Norton Coverage area except for the eastern slopes of the Berkshires, South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and Cape Cod and the Islands for heat indices of 105-109 degrees. Heat advisories will likely be needed Thursday into Friday in areas not covered by the excessive heat watch. Use extreme caution if outside and needing to physically exert yourself. Drink plenty of liquids, take frequent breaks and seek cooler indoor locations wherever possible..
..There remains low grade potential for severe weather in Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut late Wednesday Afternoon into early evening where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has now brought the marginal risk for severe weather into Berkshire and Western Franklin County Massachusetts and could extend as far west as Western Worcester County and down into Hartford and Tolland Counties of CT. The key factor for Wednesday is whether strong to severe thunderstorms stays west of our area or spills into western parts of our region..
..There remains greater severe weather potential on Thursday where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather with areas in New York and Pennsylvania in a slight risk for severe weather which could spread east. A marginal risk for severe weather is also possible for Friday across Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut as well and will depend on the evolution of convection on Thursday..
..The severe weather potential for Wednesday through Friday will be isolated to scattered in nature with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential during this heat wave Wednesday through Friday. Another coordination message will be posted either by 11 PM Wednesday Evening or 11 AM Thursday Morning if there is a change in heat headlines and for severe weather potential for Thursday as needed and time allows for an update as we monitor severe weather potential for late Wednesday Afternoon and evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory/Excessive Heat Watch Statement, NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC-Day-1, Day-2 and Day-3 Convective Outlooks..

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory/Excessive Heat Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210811_1730.html

SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Severe Weather & Heat Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday 8/11/21 Through Friday 8/13/21 Severe Weather & Heat Wave Potential

Hello to all…

..Intense Heat and Humidity is expected Wednesday through Friday and possibly extending into Saturday. With the intense heat and humidity, it will bring with it the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms through this period..
..A Heat Advisory is now in effect for the entire NWS Boston/Norton Coverage area except for Cape Cod and the Islands from 11 AM-8 PM Wednesday for heat indices between 95-100 degrees. An Excessive Heat Watch is in effect from Thursday Morning through Friday Evening for the entire NWS Boston/Norton Coverage area except for the eastern slopes of the Berkshires, South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and Cape Cod and the Islands for heat indices of 105-109 degrees. Heat advisories will likely be needed Thursday into Friday in areas not covered by the excessive heat watch. Use extreme caution if outside and needing to physically exert yourself. Drink plenty of liquids, take frequent breaks and seek cooler indoor locations wherever possible..
..There is low grade potential for severe weather in Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut late Wednesday Afternoon into early evening with greater potential on Thursday where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather. Severe Weather potential beyond Thursday will be better defined in future outlooks..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential during this heat wave Wednesday through Friday. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Wednesday Morning if there is a change in heat headlines and for severe weather potential for Wednesday and Thursday as needed. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory/Excessive Heat Watch Statement, NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory/Excessive Heat Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

1 2 3 4 166