Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Early Sunday Morning through Early Sunday Evening 7/22/18 Severe Weather/Flash Flood Potential

Hello to all…

..After a beautiful Saturday, heat and humidity will return with a coastal type storm system along with the threat for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning, heavy rainfall with the potential of urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding and the possibility of an isolated tornado or waterspout. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued South-Coastal Connecticut, South-Central Rhode Island into portions of Eastern Massachusetts in a Marginal Risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor conditions around and after 4 AM Sunday through Sunday Afternoon. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are also possible but an exact timeframe for Ops needs remains unclear so this will continue to be monitored..

A fairly intense coastal type storm system for July will affect the region Sunday. A strong warm front is still expected to traverse the region and along and behind the warm front, dewpoints will soar from the comfortable upper 50’s to lower 60’s to the sultry low to mid 70s. Based on the track of the low pressure system a bit further west, its possible that the threat for an isolated tornado and waterspout has diminished somewhat as the triple point of the low will be further west, however, that remains uncertain and the wind shear will still be more than sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorms and there will be a level of turning in the atmosphere to support an isolated tornado or waterspout with the warm front. The amount of instability will be more limited and will limit the coverage of the severe weather and it will put much of Southern New England in an environment of a low instability/high shear. That being said, instability does increase as the day wears on Sunday and if there is an overlap with the turning of the atmosphere associated with the warm front with that instability, it would create an environment that can produce isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds and an isolated tornado/waterspout as the main severe weather threats. Heavy rainfall is also possible as thunderstorms may train along and behind the warm front and given its a coastal system it could setup in a band ahead of the low pressure center. This rainfall if it trains over the same areas could bring an urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flood potential that will need to be monitored. The focus areas of where this heaviest rainfall is unclear. It could be over a portion of Southern New England or just south and west of the region. A focus area of monitoring will be the rain moving from southeast to Northwest west of the lower pressure center offshore of southern New England and is moving northward with the coastal low. Also, in any heavier convective showers and as the warm frontal passage occurs, general strong wind gusts of between 35 and 50 MPH are possible particularly in coastal Southeast New England if the heavy convective showers or conditions allow those stronger winds to reach the surface.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor conditions around and after 4 AM Sunday through Sunday Afternoon. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are also possible but an exact timeframe for Ops needs remains unclear so this will continue to be monitored. If Ops are initiated, a shortened coordination message will be posted if time allows stating Ops are initiated. If ops aren’t initiated and conditions and time allows for it, another complete coordination message may be issued by 10 AM Sunday. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Late Saturday Night 7/21/18-Sunday 7/22/18 Severe Weather/Flash Flood Potential

Hello to all…

..After one last comfortable day, heat and humidity will return with a coastal type storm system along with the threat for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning, heavy rainfall with the potential of urban and poor drainage flooding and the possibility of an isolated tornado or waterspout. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed South-Coastal Connecticut, South-Central Rhode Island into portions of Eastern Massachusetts in a Marginal Risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor conditions late Saturday Night into Sunday. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are also possible..

A fairly intense coastal type storm system for July will affect the region late Saturday Night into Sunday. A strong warm front will traverse the region and along and behind the warm front, dewpoints will soar from the comfortable upper 50’s to lower 60’s to the sultry low to mid 70s. Wind Shear will be more than sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorms and there will be a level of turning in the atmosphere to support an isolated tornado or waterspout. The amount of instability will be more limited and will limit the coverage of the severe weather and it will put much of Southern New England in an environment of a low instability/high shear. These environments can produce isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds and an isolated tornado as the main severe weather threats. Heavy rainfall is also possible as thunderstorms may train along and behind the warm front and given its a coastal system it could setup in a band ahead of the low pressure center. This rainfall if it trains over the same areas could bring an urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flood potential that will need to be monitored. The focus areas of where this heaviest rainfall is unclear. It could be over a portion of Southern New England or just south and west of the region. Also, in any heavier convective showers and as the warm frontal passage occurs, general strong winds of between 35 and 50 MPH are possible particularly in coastal Southeast New England.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor conditions late Saturday Night into Sunday. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are also possible. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 PM Saturday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday 7/17/18 Severe Weather/Flash Flood Potential

Hello to all…

..Strong Cold front will bring an end to the intense heat and humidity today across Southern New England..
..Today’s heat and humidity will bring heat indices into the mid to upper 90s and a Heat Advisory is in effect from 11 AM to 5 PM Tuesday for Northern Connecticut, Northwest Providence County Rhode Island, and Western Essex, Central and Southeast Middlesex, Southern Worcester, Western Norfolk and Northern Bristol Counties of Massachusetts..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely across much of Southern New England particularly interior locations for late Tuesday Morning through Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats. An isolated tornado is a secondary threat..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England from the Boston to Providence corridor in a slight risk for severe weather and Southeast New England in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect from Noon Tuesday through this evening for Northern Connecticut and Essex, Middlesex, Worcester, Franklin, Hampden and Hampshire Counties of Massachusetts for urban and poor drainage flash flooding potential..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 10-1030 AM Tuesday..

A strong cold front will sweep through Southern New England during the day Tuesday through Tuesday Night. Timing of the front looks reasonable to allow for daytime heating and sufficient instability in the region. Wind Shear profiles are looking slightly stronger and therefore will be sufficient coupled with dewpoints greater than 70 degrees to bring isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across much of Southern New England with interior areas favored. The headlines outline the severe weather/flash flood potential. Key factors on the severe weather potential for Tuesday include the following:

1.) Any low clouds/fog or leftover overnight convection cloudiness breaks to allow for sufficient heating and destabilization for expected instability to be realized. With the exception of south coastal areas, satellite imagery shows widespread clearing which will allow sufficient heating and destabilization so this has increased the severe weather and flash flood potential.
2.) Cold frontal passage timing is at time of peak heating as expected and this timing looks correct and favorable for severe weather/flash flood potential.
3.) The secondary threat of an isolated tornado is centered along and north of Route 2 to the New Hampshire border where a great threat for storm rotation is noted. The main threats, however, remain damaging straightline winds and flash flooding.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will likely commence by 1000-1030 AM Tuesday. This will be the last coordination message as we move into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement, Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday 7/17/18 Severe Weather/Flash Flood Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely across much of Southern New England particularly interior locations for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal to slight risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will likely commence by 11 AM Tuesday. This time could be adjusted based on convective trends tomorrow..

A strong cold front will sweep through Southern New England during the day Tuesday through Tuesday Night. Timing of the front looks reasonable to allow for daytime heating and sufficient instability in the region. Wind Shear profiles while slightly marginal look sufficient coupled with dewpoints greater than 70 degrees to bring isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across much of Southern New England with interior areas favored. The headlines outline the severe weather/flash flood potential. Key factors on the severe weather potential for Tuesday include the following:

1.) Any low clouds/fog or leftover overnight convection cloudiness breaks to allow for sufficient heating and destabilization for expected instability to be realized.
2.) Cold frontal passage timing is at time of peak heating as expected.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will likely commence by 11 AM Tuesday. This time could be adjusted based on convective trends tomorrow. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2018/day2otlk_20180716_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday 7/10/18 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible today across interior Southern New England particularly Northern and West-Central Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this area in a marginal risk for severe weather. Timeframe for severe weather is between 4-8 PM today..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible today to monitor the severe weather potential..

Heat and humidity, though not as significant as what was seen last week, will impact Southern New England today. A cold front will swing through the region later this afternoon and tonight. Heat and humidity will provide good instability and wind shear profiles are sufficient to produce isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across the area. The timeframe for the severe weather potential is between 4-8 PM and across interior Southern New England particularly in Western/Central and Northern Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut where SPC has outlined a marginal risk for severe weather.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible today to monitor the severe weather potential. This will likely be the only complete coordination message on the severe weather potential. A shortened coordination message will be posted when time allows and Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are initiated. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Friday 7/6/18 Flash Flood/Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..The heat wave across the region will end today as a cold front will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a marginal risk for severe weather across much of Southern New England..
..A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from Friday Morning through Friday Afternoon for all of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island except for the islands for thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall in localized areas resulting in urban and poor drainage flooding..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will occur today to monitor severe weather and flash flood potential. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible today..

The heat wave will come to an end on Friday as a cold front will traverse Southern New England. Ahead of the front showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe and with heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding will be possible across much of the region. The headlines continue to cover the situation well. Key factors in determining the severe weather potential include the following:

1.) The cold front will traverse Western New England mid to late morning and Eastern New England, early through late afternoon. This timing is a bit early than peak heating. This will likely limit any widespread pockets of severe weather but high dewpoints and some instability with forcing from the front may still allow a few pockets of severe weather to develop and urban and poor drainage flash flooding is a concern given the setup.
2.) Amount of cloud cover and any ongoing convection and how it affects heating and destabilization. Satellite imagery as of 845 AM shows some breaks in the clouds over central and eastern New England which may allow for enough instability for isolated severe weather and also prime the potential urban and poor drainage flash flood risk.
3.) Amount of wind shear and its position in relation to the front. Wind shear profiles look marginally sufficient for strong to damaging wind gusts given high dewpoints allowing storms to be water logged and allowing for wet microbursts. The wind damage potential could increase slightly if the stronger wind shear profiles end up being aligned along or ahead of the cold front.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will occur today to monitor severe weather and flash flood potential. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible today. This will be the last complete coordination message on today’s severe weather/flash flood potential. A shortened coordination message will be posted if time allows and Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are initiated. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and the SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday 7/6/18 Flash Flood/Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..The heat wave across the region will end on Friday as a cold front will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed interior Southern New England away from the south and east coasts in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..A Flash Flood Watch is in effect from Friday Morning through Friday Afternoon for all of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island except for the islands for thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall in localized areas resulting in urban and poor drainage flooding..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible Friday. Ops could start as early as the early to mid-morning timeframe to early evening or towards late morning into the early evening timeframe..

The heat wave will come to an end on Friday as a cold front will traverse Southern New England. Ahead of the front showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe and with heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding will be possible across much of the region. Key factors in determining the severe weather potential include the following:

1.) The cold front and how it is timed to move through the region. It is currently expected to pass through the area through the morning to mid-afternoon hours from west to east which could limit heating and destabilization in the region in regards to the severe weather potential.
2.) Amount of cloud cover and any ongoing convection and how it affects heating and destabilization.
3.) Amount of wind shear and its position in relation to the front. Wind shear profiles look marginally sufficient for strong to damaging wind gusts given high dewpoints allowing storms to be water logged and allowing for wet microbursts. The wind damage potential could increase slightly if the stronger wind shear profiles end up being aligned along or ahead of the cold front.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible Friday. Ops could start as early as the early to mid-morning timeframe to early evening or towards late morning into the early evening timeframe. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and the SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2018/day2otlk_20180705_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday 7/3/18 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..A weak frontal boundary that is more like a wind shift boundary will tap into the intense heat and humidity and bring the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms between 2-8 PM across interior Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..A Heat Advisory is in effect through 8 PM for the entire NWS Boston/Norton Coverage Area except for Cape Cod and the Islands for heat indices in the upper 90s through 104 degrees when factoring in high Dewpoints with air temperature. Use caution with any outdoor activities, drink plenty of liquids and try to cool down as much as possible..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely today to monitor the convective potential. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible if convective potential increases beyond current expectations..

We have had intense heat and humidity for the last several days but no real potential for convection as the atmosphere remained warm at all levels with the lack of a convective trigger. Today will be different across Southern New England particularly away from coastal areas. A weak front which will be more like a wind shift boundary will provide a trigger and just enough cooling in the upper levels of the atmosphere to allow for the instability to be tapped to allow for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lighting and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. Weak wind shear values and the triggering mechanism being fairly weak in nature will limit the severe weather potential to an isolated to possibly scattered nature.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely today to monitor the convective potential. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible if convective potential increases beyond current expectations. This will be the only coordination message on the Tuesday severe weather potential. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and ops at NWS Boston/Norton are initiated. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday 6/28/18 Flash Flood and Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Heavy Showers and Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across Southern New England today. Heavy rainfall causing urban and poor drainage flooding along with strong to damaging wind gusts are the main threats. An isolated weak tornado cannot be ruled out in Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut as a secondary threat..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect from 8 AM Thursday Morning through Thursday Evening for Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Worcester and Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for 1-2″ of rainfall with isolated higher amounts potentially causing urban and poor drainage flooding..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions for today. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible if the severe weather threat increases..

At 650 AM, Doppler Radar shows a widespread area of showers some with heavier downpours and isolated thunderstorms over the area. These showers and thunderstorms are moving northeast as the area slides east and could produce heavy rainfall for urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding and will be monitored. There is also the possibility of an isolated severe thunderstorm embedded in this activity with strong to damaging wind gusts across. There is also a secondary threat for an isolated, weak tornado. The area for severe weather potential is across Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut. After this area swings through, if there is any sun allow for heating and destabilization, there could be the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and strong to damaging wind gusts again centered across Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions for today. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible if the severe weather threat increases. This will likely be the only complete coordination message on today’s severe weather potential. A shortened coordination message will be posted if time allows and Ops at NWS are initiated. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Severe Weather & Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend Coordination Message #4 – Saturday 6/23/18-Sunday 6/24/18 Weather Outlook/Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..The following is the fourth in a series of messages on Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend and providing information on the weather during this period. This is a tradition spanning over 15 years for Amateur Radio Operators involved with Field Day and the NWS Boston/Norton SKYWARN Program..
..Saturday had some showers in the region with a few heavier downpours in Southeast New England during the morning but other thunderstorms and heavy downpours stayed well south of the region with just a few light showers and drizzle across the area and cool conditions. While not ideal, these conditions allowed for a safe and somewhat comfortable Saturday for Field Day..
..For Sunday, the morning through early to mid-afternoon looks dry but a warm front should make its way through the region. If clearing occurs behind the warm front then the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall on Sunday Afternoon/Evening potentially when Amateur Radio Field Day sites are breaking down stations and wrapping up for this year’s event. The greatest threat is in Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Connecticut in a Marginal risk for severe weather..
..Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend is an annual event where Ham Operators across the United States setup at Emergency Operations Centers, field locations, home locations etc. to operate and test their equipment and skills and make as many radio contacts as possible during the weekend. Many locations can be visited by the public and Amateur Radio Field Day can be a form of outreach to Ham and non-Ham Operators. It is also noted that several states have given proclamations to Amateur Radio/Ham Radio Operators for either an ‘Amateur Radio Day or Amateur Radio Week’ during the month of June or an ‘Amateur Radio Month’ for this month. It is both a fun/preparatory event for Ham Radio Operators for Emergency Communications scenarios..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Sunday afternoon into early evening for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential..

There are a large number of Amateur Radio Field Day sites across the NWS Boston/Norton Coverage Area and adjacent NWS Coverage Areas. Here are some links to information on these Amateur Radio Field Day Sites from across the region:

Amateur Radio Field Day Information: http://www.arrl.org/field-day
Amateur Radio Field Day National Locator: http://www.arrl.org/field-day-locator
Eastern Massachusetts Field Day Home Page: http://fd.ema.arrl.org/

The commonwealth of Massachusetts has declared this week to be Amateur Radio Week and Governor Baker has proclaimed Sunday June 24th, 2018 Amateur Radio Day in honor of the ARRL Field Day event. The details can be seen at the following links:
https://ema.arrl.org/2018/06/19/massachusetts-house-passes-bill-proclaiming-amateur-radio-week/
https://ema.arrl.org/2018/06/15/massachusetts-senate-proclaims-amateur-radio-week/
https://ema.arrl.org/2018/06/10/governor-baker-proclaims-june-24-2018-amateur-radio-day/

Saturday had some showers in the region with a few heavier downpours in Southeast New England during the morning but other thunderstorms and heavy downpours stayed well south of the region with just a few light showers and drizzle across the area and cool conditions. While not ideal, these conditions allowed for a safe and somewhat comfortable Saturday for Field Day.

For today (Sunday), a warm front will traverse the region and conditions will become warmer and more humid. At 930 AM, Doppler Radar shows no precipitation. Satellite imagery shows thinning clouds over Eastern New York, Eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. This should work its way into Southern New England particularly into Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut. Clouds could still linger for most of the day in Eastern New England. A Cold front and impulse in the atmosphere will approach the region from the west. If there is sufficient heating and destabilization and forcing from the impulse and front coincide with that destabilization, it will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall as the main threats with the area of concern over Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut. The timing should be as Amateur Radio Field Day ends and sites are being broken down across the region mainly after 1-2 PM through about 8 PM.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Sunday afternoon into early evening for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential. Below are links to the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Amateur Radio Field Day sites are still encouraged to bring a NOAA All-Hazards Weather Radio, monitor various cell phone weather apps where Amateur Operators may have those available and have a dedicated Ham Radio that can monitor their local SKYWARN Frequency for their area as a best safety and preparedness practice. Also sites that have mobile Internet capability can utilize that capability as a way to monitor for weather information. With Mobile Internet capability, utilizing Echolink to monitor the New England Reflector system on Echolink Conference *NEW-ENG3* Node: 9123/IRLP 9123 would be helpful as well. Please see the link below for the latest SKYWARN Frequency information for the region:
http://www.wx1box.org/node/37

During setup and takedown of Amateur Radio Field Day sites and even while operating, be sure to drink plenty of fluids and eat accordingly. Also having a jacket or sweatshirt during evenings as conditions cool etc. may also be useful while operating this year’s Field Day. The link below features information on Heat Safety:
https://www.weather.gov/safety/heat

Given the threat for thunderstorms particularly on Sunday, lightning is a threat to any and all Amateur Radio Field Day sites. Remember your lightning safety tips and details on lightning safety can be seen at the following link:
https://www.weather.gov/safety/lightning

This will be the last complete Amateur Radio Field Day coordination message for 2018. A shortened coordination message will be posted if time allows and Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are initiated.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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