Post Storm/Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Damaging Wind and Severe Weather Outbreak – Wednesday 10/7/20

Hello to all…

..Powerful cold front and vigorous squall line of severe thunderstorms with damaging wind along and behind the severe thunderstorms causes widespread pockets of tree and power line damage as well as pockets of structural damage to structures from fallen trees and even isolated direct structural damage in some areas. Massachusetts Power Outages were as high as nearly 250,000 and now reduced to over 75,000 in Massachusetts as of 1202 PM. Additional power outages were reported in Connecticut and Rhode Island..
..Pictures and reports of storm damage and hail from the Wednesday 10/7/20 event will be helpful to document this damaging wind and severe weather outbreak. They can be sent via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds, via the email address pics@nsradio.org or as a reply to this email. A Facebook photo album will be posted later Thursday and this post storm/severe weather coordination message will be updated later Thursday Night or Friday Morning with additional information..
..Below is the latest NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report and WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log on his damaging wind and severe weather outbreak from Wednesday 10/7/20..

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report:
http://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/LSR_10_8_20.pdf

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log:
http://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/reports_10_7_20.pdf

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Storm Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday 10/7/20 Strong to Damaging Wind and Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..A powerful cold front will bring strong to damaging winds and even the threat for Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms given an intensifying storm system, strong winds aloft and very cold temperatures aloft when compared to surface temperatures provided thunderstorms can form with limited moisture profiles. Strong to damaging winds, hail and lightning would be the primary threats with any strong to severe thunderstorms.
..The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has expanded the marginal risk for severe weather across much of Southern New England for this Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. The timeframe for any strong to severe thunderstorms would be from 2-8 PM this Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..
..A High Wind Warning remains in effect through 2 AM Thursday for Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH. A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 2 PM Wednesday Afternoon to 2 AM Wednesday Morning for Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Worcester, Essex, Middlesex, Suffolk and Norfolk Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 15-20 MPH with gusts of 60 MPH. A Wind Advisory is now in effect for Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts from 2 PM Wednesday Afternoon through 2 AM Thursday Morning for sustained winds of 10-20 MPH with gusts to 50-55 MPH. These winds will have the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the strong to severe thunderstorm and wind damage potential for Wednesday. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode..

A powerful cold front will bring strong to damaging winds and even the threat of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for much of Southern New England and the headlines depict the current thinking. At 1135 AM, Doppler Radar showed an area of rain and some embedded heavier rain associated with the cold front that will bring the strong to damaging winds and the threat for low topped convective showers and isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms which will have the ability to bring stronger winds down to the surface as well as the potential for hail even if any of the convection has little to no lightning. This will be monitored throughout the day.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the strong to severe thunderstorm and wind damage potential for Wednesday. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement and NWS Boston/Norton Facebook Infographics..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Facebook Infographics:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.3368498553244492/3368493173245030/

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Storm Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday 10/7/20 Strong to Damaging Wind and Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..A powerful cold front will bring strong to damaging winds and even the threat for Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms given an intensifying storm system, strong winds aloft and very cold temperatures aloft when compared to surface temperatures provided thunderstorms can form with limited moisture profiles. Strong to damaging winds, hail and lightning would be the primary threats with any strong to severe thunderstorms.
..The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has placed portions of Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts in a marginal risk for severe weather for Wednesday..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from Noon Wednesday through 2 AM Thursday for Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH. A High Wind Watch is now in effect for Rhode Island and Massachusetts except for Berkshire County for sustained winds of 15-20 MPH with gusts of 55-60 MPH. A Wind Advisory is now in effect for Northern Connecticut from 2 PM Wednesday Afternoon through 2 AM Thursday Morning for sustained winds of 10-20 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH.
..These winds will have the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the strong to severe thunderstorm and wind damage potential for Wednesday. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Wednesday Morning with additional details. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, High Wind Warning/Watch/Wind Advisory Statement and NWS Boston/Norton Facebook Infographics..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Watch/Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Facebook Infographics:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/a.178319238929122/3367252363369111/

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Storm Coordination Message #1 – Late Tuesday Night 9/29/20 Through Midday Wednesday 9/30/20 Strong Wind & Heavy Rainfall Potential

Hello to all…

..Beneficial rainfall expected overnight into late Wednesday Morning but it will also be accompanied by strong to damaging winds over portions of Southern New England..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from Midnight tonight to 1 PM Wednesday for all of the NWS Boston Norton Coverage area except for Franklin, Hampshire and Western Hampden Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 15-25 MPH and gusts of 40-50 MPH. Isolated to scattered higher wind gusts possible in any fine line of convective showers and thunderstorms bring stronger winds down to the surface. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..Rainfall amounts of 1-2″ with isolated higher amounts are likely north and west of Interstate-495 through Northwest Rhode Island and Northern Connecticut. Amounts of 0.25-1.00″ are possible east of I-495..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for wind gust measurements, wind damage and rainfall reports of 1″ or more from this storm system..

After an extremely quiet period of weather across Southern New England during the month of September, a strong storm system will bring beneficial rainfall to Southern New England but it will also bring strong to damaging winds to portions of Southern New England. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) The fine line of convective showers and possible thunderstorms and their ability to bring the strongest winds down to the surface.
2.) The potential for the intensifying storm system for strong winds to reach the surface. Some models have some stronger winds reaching the surface if enough mixing of the winds can occur. This aspect will be monitored.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for wind gust measurements, wind damage and rainfall reports of 1″ or more from this storm system. This will be the only coordination message on this storm as we shift into operations mode unless a significant change to the situation occurs and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory Statement, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Wind Gust Infographic and Rainfall Total Infographic:

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Gust Infographic:
http://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/MaxWindGustMphISC_SFC.png

NWS Boston/Norton Rainfall Infographic:
http://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/StormTotalQPFISC_SFC.png

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Wind/Coastal Flood & Fire Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday 9/22/20 – Strong Wind/Coastal Flood/Fire Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Hurricane Teddy will pass well offshore of Southern New England but the gradient between Teddy and High Pressure over Southern New England will bring strong to damaging winds for Cape Cod and the Islands with strong wind gusts over East and South Coastal Massachusetts along with high surf and the potential for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Tuesday Afternoon. While winds will be less in the interior, fire weather will be a concern due to dry conditions, low humidity and breezy conditions..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect for Nantucket through 11 PM Tuesday Evening for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard from 9 AM to 8 PM Tuesday for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50-55 MPH. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Eastern and Plymouth Counties for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts of 40-50 MPH. Other coastal areas could see wind gusts near 40 MPH today. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 2-7 PM Tuesday for Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, Eastern Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes and Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts for minor coastal flooding on shore roads at the time of high tide Tuesday Afternoon/early evening..
..A High Surf Advisory is now in effect through 8 PM Wednesday for Eastern Essex, Eastern Plymouth, Cape Cod and the Islands, South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island for the dangers of rip currents and high surf along these coastal areas..
..A Red Flag Warning for fire weather is in effect through 9 PM Tuesday Evening for Massachusetts and Rhode Island as low humidity, recent dry weather and drought conditions along with strong winds could increase the fire risk for the region. A Special Weather Statement has been issued for Northern Connecticut regarding the fire risk..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the strong to damaging wind and coastal flood potential in East and South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island. This is the only coordination message on today’s weather unless a significant change to the situation occurs. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement, High Surf Advisory Statement, Red Flag Warning statement, Special Weather Statement and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood/High Surf Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Red Flag Warning Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2009220710.wwus81.html

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2009220722.wwus81.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Facebook Infographics:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.3321711174589897/3321711131256568/
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/a.178319238929122/3321761407918207/

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Saturday 8/29/20 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Southern New England with the highest potential in Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut between about 4-10 PM Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather Saturday with a slight risk for severe weather back into Eastern New York where conditions will be more favorable..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Saturday..

Another round of severe weather occurred on Thursday but more isolated in nature in the NWS Norton coverage area as the warm front never quite made it through enough of Southern New England to get into our coverage area. Areas of Southwest and South-Central Connecticut saw significant severe weather and the NWS Brookhaven New York confirmed an EF1 Tornado from Bethany to North Haven CT along with multiple microbursts and other communities of New Haven County CT. The NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report along with the NWS Brookhaven NY Local Storm Report and Public Information Statement on damage surveys are listed below:

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2008271905.nwus51.html

NWS Brookhaven NY Public Information Statement – Storm Damage Surveys:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KOKX/2008290246.nous41.html

NWS Brookhaven NY Local Storm Report:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KOKX/2008280250.nwus51.html (Summary)
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KOKX/2008290329.nwus51.html (Connecticut Tornado confirmed via damage survey)

For Saturday, a warm front will be able to push through Southern New England and there will be strong wind shear again in the upper levels of the atmosphere for severe thunderstorm development. Instability, however, could be quite marginal due to cloud cover. If the strong wind shear conditions in the upper levels of the atmosphere can overcome lower instability values or more clearing develops to allow for greater instability, the severe weather potential in our region would be increased and this will bear watching. At this time, the greatest chance for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms is in Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut. The potential is more conditional farther east given the potential for cloud cover to hold on longer in this area then in western parts of the area.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Saturday. This will be the last coordination message on this severe weather potential as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday 8/29/20 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Southern New England on Saturday. There is a low chance of an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm overnight to daybreak Saturday with a greater chance for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday Afternoon and Evening. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather Saturday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Saturday..

Another round of severe weather occurred on Thursday but more isolated in nature in the NWS Norton coverage area as the warm front never quite made it through enough of Southern New England to get into our coverage area. Areas of Southwest and South-Central Connecticut saw significant severe weather and the NWS Brookhaven New York is out investigating several areas of significant severe thunderstorm damage in Southern Connecticut. The NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report along with the NWS Brookhaven Local Storm Report and Public Information Statement on damage surveys are listed below:

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2008271905.nwus51.html

NWS Brookhaven NY Public Information Statement – Storm Damage Surveys:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KOKX/2008281434.nous41.html

NWS Brookhaven NY Local Storm Reports:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KOKX/2008280250.nwus51.html (Summary)
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KOKX/2008281703.nwus51.html (Additional Significant Report)
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KOKX/2008281656.nwus51.html (Additional Significant Report)
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KOKX/2008281631.nwus51.html (Additional Significant Report)
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KOKX/2008281513.nwus51.html (Additional Significant Report)

For Saturday, a warm front will be able to push through Southern New England and there will be strong wind shear again in the upper levels of the atmosphere for severe thunderstorm development. Instability, however, could be quite marginal due to cloud cover. If the strong wind shear conditions in the upper levels of the atmosphere can overcome lower instability values or more clearing develops to allow for greater instability, the severe weather potential in our region would be increased and this will bear watching.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Saturday. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Saturday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200828_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Thursday 8/27/20 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..The potential exists for a high-end severe weather outbreak over portions of Southwest Massachusetts and Connecticut with a now more marginal to slight risk for severe weather over Rhode Island along with Central Massachusetts for Thursday Afternoon and Evening as the position of the warm front is a little more south and west than yesterday’s update but still through much of Connecticut with areas of Northeast Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Mass near this front.
..A Tornado Watch is now in effect for Berkshire County Massachusetts and Litchfield County Connecticut until 700 PM EDT. Its possible this watch could expand into other parts of Connecticut and Southwest Massachusetts later today..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Southwest Massachusetts and Connecticut in an Enhanced Risk for severe weather and surrounding that enhanced risk area in Northeast Connecticut, Central and Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island are now in a marginal to slight risk of severe weather. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and isolated tornadoes are all potential threats..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will closely monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday through 9 PM EDT..

After a one day reprieve in severe weather potential, a potentially high-end severe weather outbreak is possible over portions of Southern New England. The headlines depict current thinking including the warm frontal position being a bit more south and west than yesterday’s update. Key factors in this severe weather potential include:

1.) Position of the warm front and how far north and east it gets. The further north and east it gets, the greater the severe weather potential including the greater the risk across a larger portion of Southern New England. If the warm front remains south and west of the region, it would mute the severe weather potential. At this time the warm frontal position modeled best aligns with the slight to enhanced risk areas meaning the warm front should get through Southwest Massachusetts particularly along and south of the Mass Pike into Western and Central Connecticut with Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts having a more conditional risk with the warm front right on top of these areas..
2.) Sufficient heating and destabilization after warm frontal passage to allow for high instability.
3.) Wind shear parameters and parameters for rotation are high for this potential severe weather outbreak.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will closely monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday with the timeframe anytime through 9 PM EDT today. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Tornado Watch #455 Information, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Tornado Watch #455 Information:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0455.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1594.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday 8/27/20 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..The potential exists for a high-end severe weather outbreak over portions of Southwest Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island Thursday Afternoon and Evening with other areas north and east needing to monitor pending the position of the warm front, currently expected to be through at least West-Central Massachusetts and sufficient clearing for heating and destabilization over areas south and west of this warm front..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western to South-Central Massachusetts and Rhode Island in Enhanced Risk for Severe Weather with a slight risk for severe weather and surrounding the enhanced risk area, a marginal to slight risk of severe weather for the rest of Central and Eastern Massachusetts. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and isolated tornadoes are all potential threats..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will closely monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday with the timeframe anytime between 12-9 PM EDT..

After a one day reprieve in severe weather potential, a potentially high-end severe weather outbreak is possible over portions of Southern New England. The headlines depict current thinking. Key factors in this severe weather potential include:

1.) Position of the warm front and how far north and east it gets. The further north and east it gets, the greater the severe weather potential including the greater the risk across a larger portion of Southern New England. If the warm front remains south and west of the region, it would mute the severe weather potential. At this time the warm frontal position modeled best aligns with the slight to enhanced risk areas meaning the warm front should get through Southwest Massachusetts particularly along and south of the Mass Pike and just west of I-495 through Rhode Island and Connecticut.
2.) Sufficient heating and destabilization after warm frontal passage to allow for high instability.
3.) Wind shear parameters and parameters for rotation are high for this potential severe weather outbreak.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will closely monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday with the timeframe anytime between 12-9 PM EDT. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Thursday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200826_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Tuesday 8/25/20 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Scattered to Numerous Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely Tuesday presuming sufficient moisture and instability in the atmosphere associated with a strong cold front that will bring an end to the heat and humidity of the last few days. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a Slight Risk for Severe Weather across all of Southern New England. Timeframe is 12-8 PM Tuesday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will be active for the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening..

While less in coverage and intensity than this weekend, a few strong to severe thunderstorms developed over Southern New England this afternoon. The NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report on today’s severe weather event is listed below and photos of the last 3 days of severe weather will be posted today:

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Monday 8/24/20 Severe Weather Event:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2008250201.nwus51.html

Not much change to the headlines regarding Tuesday’s severe weather potential. SPC had considered an enhanced risk upgrade for Southern New England but is holding off at this time as it remains unclear how much strong to severe thunderstorm coverage there will be. This could still happen as we get into this afternoon. While the greatest potential maybe across Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts, the slight risk area covers all of New England and all areas should monitor.

Tuesday, a strong cold front will swing through New England and with it bring a more widespread potential for strong to severe thunderstorms across all of New England. The headlines depict the current thinking and the caveats to the potential for more widespread severe weather for Tuesday. Key factors include:

1.) Timing of the cold front to allow for sufficient heating and destabilization.
2.) Amount of mid-level dry air in the atmosphere and moisture convergence as there needs to be sufficient moisture in the atmosphere for severe thunderstorm development and to sustain updrafts.
3.) Wind shear profiles will be the strongest of the last few days and will need to be monitored if sufficient heating, destabilization and moisture are available for more widespread pockets of wind damage from strong to severe thunderstorms.
4.) There is some cloud cover and a dying area of showers that will slow heating slightly but satellite imagery indicates rapid clearing behind it. Provided moisture remains in place and heating returns as expected, this should allow for scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms in the region.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will be active for the severe weather potential for Tuesday. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Special Weather Statement on Severe Weather Potential, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement – Severe Weather Potential:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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