Local Storm Report (7/18/11) & Post Severe Weather Event Analysis

Hello to all..

Today’s severe weather event was more isolated in scope and this had to do with a weakening Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) that went over the area during the late morning and afternoon hours. This caused extensive cloud cover precluding a more widespread event. One isolated strong thunderstorm associated with the MCS caused minor wind damage in West Newbury, Mass with a 39 Knot measured wind gust at Eastern Point Gloucester, Mass. followed by an isolated severe thunderstorm affecting the Wareham, South Plymouth, and Bourne, Massachusetts area. An Isolated to Scattered strong to possibly Severe Thunderstorm or two could still occur over the overnight hours but the threat for a more widespread event has diminished and the threat for this isolated to scattered activity is low and will be monitored with SKYWARN Self-Activation. Weather models have difficulties with Mesoscale Convective Systems and can sometimes miss a system and its position entirely. This was the case today with the MCS that went through the area during the late Monday Morning and Afternoon timeframe limiting the severe weather threat.

The following Local Storm Reports highlight the activity from today’s minor weather event:

http://beta.wx1box.org/local/LSR_7_18_11.txt

As warmer temperatures approach towards the Thursday to Friday timeframe with the potential for temperatures well into the 90s to perhaps 100 degrees, the threat for severe weather could hinge on Mesoscale Convective Systems, their timing, intensity and track toward the area. This will make for challenging convective forecasts during this period. Along with the heat, the potential for severe weather will need possible monitoring as we move toward this portion of the week.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator        
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

Hello to all..

Today’s severe weather event was more isolated in scope and this had to do with a weakening Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) that went over the area during the late morning and afternoon hours. This caused extensive cloud cover precluding a more widespread event. One isolated strong thunderstorm associated with the MCS caused minor wind damage in West Newbury, Mass with a 39 Knot measured wind gust at Eastern Point Gloucester, Mass. followed by an isolated severe thunderstorm affecting the Wareham, South Plymouth, and Bourne, Massachusetts area. An Isolated to Scattered strong to possibly Severe Thunderstorm or two could still occur over the overnight hours but the threat for a more widespread event has diminished and the threat for this isolated to scattered activity is low and will be monitored with SKYWARN Self-Activation. Weather models have difficulties with Mesoscale Convective Systems and can sometimes miss a system and its position entirely. This was the case today with the MCS that went through the area during the late Monday Morning and Afternoon timeframe limiting the severe weather threat.

The following Local Storm Reports highlight the activity from today’s minor weather event:

http://beta.wx1box.org/local/LSR_7_18_11.txt

As warmer temperatures approach towards the Thursday to Friday timeframe with the potential for temperatures well into the 90s to perhaps 100 degrees, the threat for severe weather could hinge on Mesoscale Convective Systems, their timing, intensity and track toward the area. This will make for challenging convective forecasts during this period. Along with the heat, the potential for severe weather will need possible monitoring as we move toward this portion of the week.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator        
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org