Hello to all…
..Additional rounds of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible to likely Sunday Afternoon and Evening between 12-8 PM and Monday Afternoon and Evening from around 3-11 PM in portions of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather this Sunday Afternoon and Evening. SPC has placed Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts north of Route 2 in a slight risk of severe weather with a marginal risk of severe weather from South Coastal Connecticut to Central Rhode Island and interior Southeast Massachusetts north up to the slight risk area..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will monitor the severe weather potential for Sunday Afternoon and evening and Monday Afternoon and Evening. Pictures and videos of storm damage from the events over the next couple days or prior events in the previous two days can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..
On Saturday, most of the severe weather occurred across Southern Connecticut and into the Mid-Atlantic states but one severe thunderstorm caused pockets of tree and wire damage in Plainfield, CT and Coventry RI. The WX1BOX Amateur Radio log and NWS Norton Local Storm Report from Saturday are listed below:
WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/reports_8_3_24.pdf
NWS Norton Local Storm Report:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/LSR-8-3-24.pdf
On Friday, severe weather affected portions of Southern New England. Hardest hit was the Simsbury, Granby, West Suffield, CT area along with East Windsor CT. Other isolated damage were reported in parts of Western, Central and Eastern Massachusetts and Northeast Rhode Island. The WX1BOX Amateur Radio log and NWS Norton Local Storm Report are listed below:
WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/reports_8_2_24.pdf
NWS Norton MA Local Storm Report:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/LSR-8-2-24.pdf
For Sunday and Monday, more severe weather is possible to likely in at least a portion of Southern New England as a cold front slowly moves into the region attempting to bring an end to the heat and humidity in the region. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors will be broken out by each day.
Key Factors for Sunday severe weather potential:
1.) Similar to Saturday, marginal wind shear and favorable instability parameters overcoming some unfavorable parameters to produce severe weather.
2.) Amount of heating and destabilization given some cloud cover in the area to allow for the favorable instability parameters to take hold in the region.
3.) Triggering mechanism in the atmosphere lining up with items 1 and 2 for severe weather potential
Key Factors for Monday severe weather potential:
1.) Whether forcing and a triggering mechanism will reach Southern New England near or just past the time of peak heating for severe thunderstorm development
2.) Wind Shear profiles are expected to be quite strong enhancing severe weather potential in the slight risk area if forcing/triggering can move further south in the area
3.) Instability should be sufficient and if forcing and a triggering mechanism can enter the area, it will be an active day especially in the slight risk portion of the severe weather potential
SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will monitor the severe weather potential for Sunday Afternoon and evening and Monday Afternoon and Evening. Pictures and videos of storm damage from the events over the next couple days or prior events in the previous two days can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. This will be the only coordination message on the Sunday severe weather potential and the next coordination message on the Monday severe weather potential will be posted by 11 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
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