Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Saturday Afternoon & Evening 7/2/22 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening across much of Southern New England with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to potential urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued much of Southern New England in a Slight Risk for severe weather except for Southeast Coastal Massachusetts and Newport County Rhode Island which are under a marginal risk for severe weather for Saturday. Timeframe is between 2-8 PM give or take 1-2 hours..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening to monitor this severe weather potential..

Overnight, clusters of strong and a couple isolated severe thunderstorms occurred in the region overnight and were still ongoing in Southeast New England with an area of showers across Southeast New York, Northern Connecticut and into Northwest and North-Central Massachusetts. This area will move through during the late morning and early afternoon hours and behind it will be some clearing and destabilization that will set the stage for a potentially active severe weather day that remains likely on Saturday Afternoon and Evening with the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in clusters or line segments to affected much of Southern New England Saturday Afternoon and Evening. There has been little change to the ongoing forecast based on the current model runs.

As is the case with strong to severe thunderstorms, not every location, city or town will see this activity but isolated to scattered pockets of strong to severe thunderstorms will affect the region as a cold front brings an end to intense heat and humidity to the region. Conditions will dry out late Saturday Night into Sunday Morning from northwest to southeast allowing for nice summer weather for July 4th long weekend activities from Sunday Afternoon through Monday Evening. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors remain:

1.) There continues to be some shower and thunderstorm activity this Saturday Morning which should clear out from the area in the late morning and early afternoon hours per radar and satellite imagery. The amount of clearing to allow for more intense destabilization after this activity moves through will be a key factor in determining the extent of strong to severe thunderstorms during the time of peak heating Saturday Afternoon and Evening.
2.) If there is strong clearing with the favorable wind shear profiles in place, this could allow for more a potent severe weather event across the region and this will be monitored.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening to monitor this severe weather potential. This will be the last coordination message as we shift further into operations mode as we have been active during the overnight and early morning period. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Saturday Afternoon & Evening 7/2/22 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening across much of Southern New England with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to potential urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued much of Southern New England in a Slight Risk for severe weather except for Southeast Coastal Massachusetts and Newport County Rhode Island which are under a marginal risk for severe weather for Saturday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening to monitor this severe weather potential..

A potentially active severe weather day remains likely on Saturday Afternoon and Evening with the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in clusters or line segments to affected much of Southern New England Saturday Afternoon and Evening. There has been little change to the ongoing forecast based on the current model runs.

As is the case with strong to severe thunderstorms, not every location, city or town will see this activity but isolated to scattered pockets of strong to severe thunderstorms will affect the region as a cold front brings an end to intense heat and humidity to the region. Conditions will dry out late Saturday Night into Sunday Morning from northwest to southeast allowing for nice summer weather for July 4th long weekend activities from Sunday Afternoon through Monday Evening. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors remain:

1.) There will be some shower and thunderstorm activity (most likely non-severe) late Friday Night through early Saturday Morning. The amount of clearing to allow for more intense destabilization after this activity moves through will be a key factor in determining the extent of strong to severe thunderstorms during the time of peak heating Saturday Afternoon and Evening.
2.) If there is strong clearing with the favorable wind shear profiles in place, this could allow for more a potent severe weather event across the region and this will be monitored.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening to monitor this severe weather potential. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Saturday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2022/day2otlk_20220701_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday Afternoon & Evening 7/2/22 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening across much of Southern New England with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to potential urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a Slight Risk for severe weather except for Southeast Coastal Massachusetts and Newport County Rhode Island which are under a marginal risk for severe weather for Saturday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening to monitor this severe weather potential..

A potentially active severe weather day is likely on Saturday Afternoon and Evening with the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in clusters or line segments to affected much of Southern New England Saturday Afternoon and Evening. As is the case with strong to severe thunderstorms, not every location, city or town will see this activity but isolated to scattered pockets of strong to severe thunderstorms will affect the region as a cold front brings an end to intense heat and humidity to the region. Conditions will dry out late Saturday Night into Sunday Morning from northwest and Southeast allowing for nice summer weather for July 4th long weekend activities from Sunday Afternoon through Monday Evening. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) There will be some shower and thunderstorm activity (most likely non-severe) late Friday Night and early Saturday Morning. The amount of clearing to allow for more intense destabilization after this activity moves through will be a key factor in determining the extent of strong to severe thunderstorms during the time of peak heating Saturday Afternoon and Evening.
2.) If there is strong clearing with the favorable wind shear profiles in place, this could allow for more a potent severe weather event across the region and this will be monitored.
3.) There will also be the possibility for some isolated thunderstorms Friday Afternoon and early evening but are expected to be typical non-severe thunderstorms though this will also be monitored.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening to monitor this severe weather potential. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 PM Saturday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday Afternoon & Evening 6/29/22 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible late Wednesday Afternoon and Evening across Western Massachusetts between 4-10 PM today. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to brief urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western Massachusetts and points north into Northern New York and Northern New England..
..Key factors in any severe weather potential for Western Massachusetts will be amount of moisture and instability that develops in the area and how far south any thunderstorm activity develops and if it gets into Western Massachusetts or stays north of this area..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Western Massachusetts late Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the only coordination message on this severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box

Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend Weather Coordination Message #2 – Friday 6/24/22-Sunday 6/26/22

Hello to all..

..The following is the second and final in a series of messages on Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend and providing information on the weather during this period. This is a tradition spanning over 19 years for Amateur Radio Operators involved with Field Day and the NWS Boston/Norton SKYWARN Program..
..2022 Field Day weekend will mostly be dry, warm and humid. There is a chance of an isolated shower on Friday for Field Day sites setting up on Friday. The weekend looks dry and the threat for any thunderstorms during the course of Field Day weekend is near zero at this time with high temperatures Friday through Sunday in the 80s to lower 90s (70s to lower 80s at the coast) and lows in the 60s. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase as we get into Monday from west to east across Southern New England but this is after the Field Day weekend event is completed as well as any takedown of sites typically done late Sunday Afternoon and early evening..
..Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend is an annual event where Ham Operators across the United States setup at Emergency Operations Centers, field locations, home locations etc. to operate and test their equipment and skills and make as many radio contacts as possible during the weekend. Amateur Radio Field Day sites will likely be operating under normal conditions pre-pandemic across most field day sites though it is possible some Field Day sites may have some minimal COVID-19 protocols in place. There will likely still be some home station Field Day sites but less than the prior 2 years during the pandemic with more traditional Field Day sites in the region..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions throughout Field Day weekend as needed though no activations are expected at this time..

Here are some links to information on these Amateur Radio Field Day Sites from across the region. Again most will likely be operating normally but there could be some minimal COVID-19 protocols in place at certain locations:

Amateur Radio Field Day Information: https://www.arrl.org/field-day
Amateur Radio Field Day National Locator: https://www.arrl.org/field-day-locator
Eastern Massachusetts Field Day Home Page: https://ema.arrl.org/field-day/
Eastern Massachusetts Field Day Directory: https://ema.arrl.org/field_day/

Similar to last year, Amateur Radio Field Day is expected to feature warm and dry conditions across the region. An isolated shower could occur in parts of Southern New England on Friday for Amateur Radio Field Day sites setting up Friday but its likely to be very isolated. The weekend looks dry and no thunderstorms are expected in the region until post the Field Day event on Monday. High temperatures Friday through Sunday will be in the 80s to lower 90s with upper 70s to lower 80s near the coast and lows will be in the 60s. Humidity levels are expected to be fairly high in the region with Sunday being the hottest and most humid day in the region. All involved in Field Day sites are asked to use caution with the heat, take breaks during setup and breakdown of Field Day sites, and drink plenty of uncaffienated liquids to stay hydrated.

Below are links to the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook and NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

Amateur Radio Field Day sites are encouraged to bring a NOAA All-Hazards Weather Radio, monitor various cell phone weather apps where Amateur Operators may have those available and have a dedicated Ham Radio that can monitor their local SKYWARN Frequency for their area as a best safety and preparedness practice if any threat for thunderstorms develops though that is expected to be minimal this year. Also sites that have mobile Internet capability can utilize that capability as a way to monitor for weather information. With Mobile Internet capability, utilizing Echolink to monitor the New England Reflector system on Echolink Conference *NEW-ENG3* Node: 9123/IRLP 9123 would be helpful as well. Please see the link below for the latest SKYWARN Frequency information for the region:
https://wx1box.org/southern-new-england-skywarn-frequency-list/

During setup and takedown of Amateur Radio Field Day sites and even while operating, be sure to drink plenty of fluids and eat accordingly. The link below features information on Heat Safety:
https://www.weather.gov/safety/heat

While the thunderstorm threat is near zero this weekend, now is the time to remind folks that lightning is a threat to any and all Amateur Radio Field Day sites. Remember your lightning safety tips and details on lightning safety can be seen at the following link and we have also added a link from this week’s NWS Boston/Norton Lightning Safety Awareness Week and Public Information Statements on Lightning Safety. See links below:
https://www.weather.gov/safety/lightning
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/lightning_safety_awareness_PNS_2022.pdf

This will be the last coordination message for Amateur Radio Field Day weekend given no significant risk for thunderstorm activity. We hope the Amateur Radio community participating in Field Day has a great weekend!

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box

Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday 6/24/22-Sunday 6/26/22

Hello to all..

..The following is the first in a series of messages on Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend and providing information on the weather during this period. This is a tradition spanning over 19 years for Amateur Radio Operators involved with Field Day and the NWS Boston/Norton SKYWARN Program..
..2022 Field Day weekend will mostly be dry, warm and humid. There is a chance of an isolated shower in eastern areas on Saturday but the threat for any thunderstorms during the course of Field Day weekend looks minimal to near zero at this time. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase as we get into later Sunday Night and especially Monday from west to east across Southern New England but this is after the Field Day weekend event is completed as well as any takedown of sites typically done late Sunday Afternoon and early evening..
..Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend is an annual event where Ham Operators across the United States setup at Emergency Operations Centers, field locations, home locations etc. to operate and test their equipment and skills and make as many radio contacts as possible during the weekend. Amateur Radio Field Day sites will likely be operating under normal conditions pre-pandemic across most field day sites though it is possible some Field Day sites may have some minimal COVID-19 protocols in place. There will likely still be some home station Field Day sites but less than the prior 2 years during the pandemic with more traditional Field Day sites in the region..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions throughout Field Day weekend as needed though no activations are expected at this time..

Here are some links to information on these Amateur Radio Field Day Sites from across the region and if any groups would like their Field Day listed, we will add it to the next Amateur Radio Field Day Weather Coordination message. Again most will likely be operating normally but there could be some minimal COVID-19 protocols in place at certain locations:

Amateur Radio Field Day Information: https://www.arrl.org/field-day
Amateur Radio Field Day National Locator: https://www.arrl.org/field-day-locator
Eastern Massachusetts Field Day Home Page: https://ema.arrl.org/field-day/
Eastern Massachusetts Field Day Directory: https://ema.arrl.org/field_day/

Similar to last year, Amateur Radio Field Day is expected to feature warm and dry conditions across the region. An isolated shower could occur in eastern areas of Southern New England but its likely to be very isolated. At this time, no thunderstorms are expected in the region until post the Field Day event later Sunday Night and especially Monday though this aspect will be monitored. High temperatures will be in the 80s to lower 90s with upper 70s to lower 80s near the coast and lows will be in the 60s. Humidity levels are expected to be fairly high in the region with Sunday being the hottest and most humid day in the region. All involved in Field Day sites are asked to use caution with the heat, take breaks during setup and breakdown of Field Day sites, and drink plenty of uncaffienated liquids to stay hydrated.

Below are links to the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook and NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

Amateur Radio Field Day sites are encouraged to bring a NOAA All-Hazards Weather Radio, monitor various cell phone weather apps where Amateur Operators may have those available and have a dedicated Ham Radio that can monitor their local SKYWARN Frequency for their area as a best safety and preparedness practice if any threat for thunderstorms develops though that is expected to be minimal this year. Also sites that have mobile Internet capability can utilize that capability as a way to monitor for weather information. With Mobile Internet capability, utilizing Echolink to monitor the New England Reflector system on Echolink Conference *NEW-ENG3* Node: 9123/IRLP 9123 would be helpful as well. Please see the link below for the latest SKYWARN Frequency information for the region:
https://wx1box.org/southern-new-england-skywarn-frequency-list/

During setup and takedown of Amateur Radio Field Day sites and even while operating, be sure to drink plenty of fluids and eat accordingly. The link below features information on Heat Safety:
https://www.weather.gov/safety/heat

While the thunderstorm threat is minimal to near zero this weekend, now is the time to remind folks that lightning is a threat to any and all Amateur Radio Field Day sites. Remember your lightning safety tips and details on lightning safety can be seen at the following link and we will add a link from this week’s NWS Boston/Norton Lightning Safety Awareness Week in the next Amateur Radio Field Day weekend weather coordination message:
https://www.weather.gov/safety/lightning

The next Amateur Radio Field Day coordination message will be posted by 100 PM Friday Afternoon and if the threat for thunderstorms remains minimal to near zero it will be the last Amateur Radio Field Day weekend weather coordination message.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Friday 6/17/22 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible Friday Afternoon and Evening anytime between 12-6 PM across all of Southern New England with interior Southern New England the favored area of the region. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued much of Southern New England in a Marginal Risk for severe weather though dropped the mention of an upgrade to slight risk..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Friday Afternoon and Evening..

Severe weather is possible ahead of a cold front that will bring much cooler air into the region after the heat and humidity on Friday. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Any cloud cover or residual shower and thunderstorm activity overnight/early morning and how that affects heating. Satellite imagery shows clearing across Western and Northern Massachusetts spreading its way south and east through the region which should allow for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development.
2.) The mid-levels of the atmosphere will dry out some and if they dry out too much that could limit the coverage/intensity of strong to severe thunderstorms. At this time, its expected there will be sufficient moisture for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms given the strong shear in the atmosphere and clearing allowing for destabilization
3.) Timing of the cold front which is currently expected to be at reasonable time for peak heating and destabilization particularly for central and eastern portions of the marginal severe weather risk area.
4.) If key factors 1 an 2 line up to allow for greater instability and more moist mid-levels of the atmosphere, the severe weather potential would be more robust but current modeling has a more isolated to scattered nature to the strong to severe thunderstorm potential but this will be monitored through the day.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Friday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday 6/17/22 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible Friday Afternoon and Evening anytime between 12-6 PM across all of Southern New England with interior Southern New England the favored area of the region. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has all of Southern New England in a Marginal Risk for severe weather and cited a possible upgrade to slight risk for portions of the region in later outlooks if greater instability can be realized..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Friday Afternoon and Evening..

Severe weather is possible ahead of a cold front that will bring much cooler air into the region after the heat and humidity on Friday. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Any cloud cover or residual shower and thunderstorm activity overnight/early morning and how that affects heating. If the day starts out with clear/sunny conditions or rapid clearing occurs in the wake of any overnight or early morning activity, this could increase the severe thunderstorm potential.
2.) The mid-levels of the atmosphere will dry out some and if they dry out too much that could limit the coverage/intensity of strong to severe thunderstorms. Recent model runs have actually increased the mid-level moisture and if that occurs that could mean a reasonable coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms.
3.) Timing of the cold front which is currently expected to be at reasonable time for peak heating and destabilization particularly for central and eastern portions of the marginal severe weather risk area.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Friday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 10 AM Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2022/day2otlk_20220616_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Storm/Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday 6/9/22 Heavy Rainfall & Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Heavy Rainfall with embedded thunderstorms are likely Thursday Morning to early Afternoon. Widespread rainfall of 0.5-1.5″ of rain with isolated higher amounts are likely across Southern New England. With the recent dry weather, the rain will be beneficial but the amounts will fall over a 3-6 hour period which will increase the risk for urban/poor drainage flooding in the those typical spots in areas that get higher rates of rainfall..
..In addition, there is a risk of an isolated strong or severe thunderstorm with the morning heavy rainfall this morning into early afternoon followed by the risk of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms in Western and Central Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island during the afternoon and early evening hours with strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning as the main threats. The key with any strong to severe thunderstorms with the cold front will be the ability for storms to overcome mid-level dry air to allow for the storms to be able to form..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the heavy rainfall this Thursday Morning to early afternoon for flooding and rainfall reports along with the severe weather potential throughout the day today. This will be the only coordination message on this heavy rainfall and severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Special Announcement: 11th Anniversary of the June 1st 2011 Massachusetts Tornado Outbreak

Hello to all..

We have reached the 11 year anniversary of a historic day in Southern New England Weather History. The June 1st, 2011 Massachusetts Tornado Outbreak will be a day long remembered in weather history. This announcement recaps the tornado outbreak and the lessons learned that apply today. This message is leveraged from prior anniversary messages with some updates.

The June 1st, 2011 event was forecasted by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman Oklahoma as far as 5 days out. This is very rare for New England to be in a convective outlook past 3 days. The outlook of ‘Slight Risk’ for severe weather would continue right up through June 1st. As we got into June 1st, a fast moving area of rapidly developing severe thunderstorms ahead of the warm front affected portions of Southern New Hampshire and Northeast Massachusetts producing large hail. These storms quickly moved out of area and were a sign of things to come and how explosive the atmosphere was on June 1st. Abundant sunshine and rapid heating and destabilization coupled with extremely strong wind shear values, set the stage for a historic major severe weather outbreak in Massachusetts and other parts of New England. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma issued a Mesoscale Convective Discussion highlighting the need for Tornado Watches for much of New York and New England. The Tornado Watches would be issued and supercell severe thunderstorms would move into Southern New England.

Initially the supercells produced very large hail including hail slightly over 4″ in diameter in East Windsor Massachusetts, Berkshire County, which may potentially set the new record for the commonwealth as far as hail size but no tornadic or wind damage activity through 400 PM. This is when the supercell began to take shape in Western Hampden County Massachusetts and set the stage for the large, long track EF-3 Tornado that traversed the area from Westfield to Charlton Massachusetts for a 38-mile long damage path and was on the ground for 70 minutes. Three smaller tornadoes occurred in Western and Central Massachusetts from additional supercells moving through the area. Another area of supercells went through Northern Worcester County into Middlesex and Suffolk Counties producing Golf Ball Sized hail and pockets of wind damage all the way into the Metro Boston area.

June 1st, 2011 underscored how important Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters are to the warning process and how the timely severe weather reporting can not only help the warning process but can also help saves lives. The near real-time reporting of the large EF-3 tornado touchdown with initial preliminary reports in Westfield including from Al Giguere Jr.-KB1VNH, the actual spotting of the EF3 Tornado by several Amateurs including KB1NOX-Richard Stewart who was in a car with several other Amateurs, Western Massachusetts SKYWARN Coordinator, Ray-W1NWS, and the amazing remote webcam footage from WWLP-TV channel 22 in Springfield Massachusetts helped to tell people that not only was this a radar detected tornado but that it was definitely on the ground and doing significant damage. It is quite likely that many lives were saved by this near realtime reporting of the tornado being on the ground.

Amateur Radio SKYWARN Nets were active on several Amateur Radio Repeaters including the 146.940-Mount Tom Repeater run by the Mount Tom Amateur Radio Club and with Amateur Radio members and SKYWARN Spotters from the Hampden County Radio Association also reporting into the net. The 146.970-Paxton Repeater run by the Central Massachusetts Amateur Radio Club was active for several hours as well. Both repeaters providing significant near realtime reporting for situational awareness and disaster intelligence purposes not only to the National Weather Service but also to the media, local, state and federal emergency management officials. The Amateur Radio Internet Radio Linking Project (IRLP)/Echolink system on the echolink conference *NEW-ENG* node 9123/IRLP 9123 was also active with liaisons from various Amateur Radio nets reporting into the network. While not in the NWS Boston/Norton (formerly Taunton) Coverage Area, the 146.910-Mount Greylock Repeater was active with Berkshire County SKYWARN as run by Rick-WA1ZHM with Walt-N1DQU providing information from the net into NWS. Net Controls for the 146.940 Mount Tom Net were Bob Meneguzzo-K1YO and for the 146.970 Paxton Net, John Ruggiero-N2YHK. N9SC-Steve Craven provided a critical liaison link from the 146.970-Paxton Repeater Net to the 146.940-Mount Tom Net during the tornadic outbreak. Many Amateur Radio Operators and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters reported severe weather conditions despite being at risk from these powerful supercells. We are forever grateful for the reporting that helped save lives. The outpouring of damage assessment pictures and videos and reports near and after the event was unprecedented. This clearly helped Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs), local and state emergency management perform their duties to try and bring as many resources to bear on the significant path of destruction carved out by the tornado outbreak.

For the victims, today is likely a painful reminder of what occurred and what loses they faced in terms of property damage and possibly lives lost. Our thoughts and prayers remain to all those people that are affected and we hope that they have fully recovered and moved on with their lives after this tornado outbreak.

For those not impacted by such a significant event as June 1st and not impacted severely by other significant severe weather events that have occurred over the past decade, this is a reminder that we must all be prepared for these significant weather situations that occur at low frequency but can be with high impact. The more self-sufficient and prepared we are, the easier the situation will be if we are faced with such a significant scenario if it comes our way and potentially occurs in a more widespread way. For those SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators who have not witnessed such severe weather, this is why we train and prepare because we never know the hour or day where a critical severe weather report can help the warning process and save lives.

On a personal level, we never want severe weather like this to happen but if it has to happen, the level of commitment, support and reporting of the situation in near realtime on June 1st with a high level of precision and quality but also in the quantity that the reports came through in our network is a testament to all of you for remaining dedicated and supportive of the National Weather Service SKYWARN program. It is an honor and a privilege for myself and many of our Amateur Radio SKYWARN Coordinators across the NWS Boston/Norton Coverage Area to serve as leaders of the program and we appreciate everything you do, as without all of you, we wouldn’t have the SKYWARN program we have today in our region. Having been the leader of the program for over 25 years, this was our finest hour in supporting the NWS office and saving lives and it couldn’t have been done without all of your support.

Given the 11-year anniversary, here are some stories from SKYWARN Spotters, Amateur Radio Operators and others from this day as collected in the last few days leading up to this year’s anniversary:

Steve Hooke – Norfolk County Task Force:
11 years ago today I responded to Brimfield with the Norfolk County Task Force to assist with search and rescue after the tornado hit. Only those who were there that night can really understand what we did and what we saw. The destruction was unimaginable. Those assigned to the task force that day have my ultimate respect.

Frank Cummings via the WX1BOX Facebook Page:
I visited a person in that area a few weeks after the storms. His house and property were essentially untouched. All that was left of his next door neighbor’s home was the foundation. and the devastation was widespread. The whole area looked like a game of Giant Pick Up Sticks – trees laying askew for as far as the eye could see and foundations left on lots stripped of almost vegetation. Terrible.

Gail Morrissey – Monson, MA – WX1BOX Twitter Feed:
I live three houses down from a tilted one and was home when it hit. Not a fun experience. The upside down house, Judy and Doug’s, were up the street from me. I learned to be a weather spotter from you after this.

Josh Adler – WX1BOX Twitter Feed:
Flew into these storms coming back from LAX to Logan. Single most turbulent flight I’ve ever been on. It was a wild ride!

Joe Sciacca – SKYWARN Spotter and Meteorologist for Precision Weather Forecasting, Inc.:
Here are my memories of June 1, 2011: I was a sophomore in high school at Austin Prep in Reading, MA. It was a Tuesday morning and I was on my way to school. Around 7:30 am I looked to the west and I saw huge overshooting cloud tops. I told my mom that today was going to be a dangerous severe weather day in Southern New England. Checking the radar before school started around 8, I saw a powerful line of thunderstorms in western New England moving east with hail reports. Little that I knew, that the hail was up to 4 inches in diameter. In my younger forecasting days, I had limited model data but the data that I had at the time indicated to me that this was going to be unusual setup. I saw alot of shear, a well mixed boundary layer, and high severe weather parameters. Around 10am or so, the line of thunderstorms moved into the Reading area and there was loud thunder and heavy rain. I checked the radar and satellite and saw clearing coming in from the west. When I saw the clearing sky, I upped my tornado threat to a 8/10 for central Southern New England. I told the kids in my class that a tornado will likely happen today in Western MA. They laughed and said “tornadoes don’t happen here”. As the afternoon went on, about 1 pm in my last class of the day I checked on the weather conditions in the region and I saw a tornado watch issued to our west I think in NY state. We had a entire afternoon of strong heating and destabilization of the atmosphere. Once school let out around 2 and on my way home closer to 3, I looked out to the west, and I saw massive cloud tops that I think were near 80 or so miles to my west from I-93 in Reading, MA. Once I got home, I tuned on the TV and then closer to 4, the tornado warnings started in western MA and it was several hours of live tornadoes on local TV stations like WHDH 7, NECN, WBZ, WCVB. At one point the EAS came on TV. That was insane for me who at the time was 16. It was impossible for me to do my homework that afternoon because of the severe weather and the excitement that I had of watching the TV meteorologist handle what was becoming a historic weather event locally. By time 10pm came, I remember the storms approached into Boston with a severe thundershower if I remember correctly. At this time I had to call it a day since I had school the next day.

Bob Yates – SKYWARN Spotter (Provided an additional photo from Brimfield from 6/1/11):
I volunteered for a few days delivering sandwiches and water from the church just after roads were cleared-

Eric Mikal Birkeland – SKYWARN Spotter:
The damage scar can still be seen by satellite after it snows.

Billy Doyle – SKYWARN Spotter:
I remember very well I was at Cracker Barrel in Sturbridge and a monson on call fire fighter was eating and his pager went off

Jeff Aborn – SKYWARN and Co-Op Observer – Provided Photos from the tornado path on the WX1BOX Tornado feed:
On the afternoon of June 1, 2011 an EF-3 tornado traveled 38 miles through parts of western & central Massachusetts. It caused damage in W Springfield, Monson, Brimfield, and Southbridge. Three lives were taken by the storm and 200 injuries. Jeff–Staffordville

We hope this remembrance makes people never forget what happened on June 1st 2011 and remind ourselves again that we must remain, prepared and vigilant especially here in New England where events such as June 1st can happen but on a low frequency basis. A June 1st 2011 video collage has been posted at our WX1BOX Video Youtube Channel with the direct link listed below as well as a June 1st 2011 tornado timeline video by SKYWARN Spotter Dan Butler. Also listed below is the NWS Massachusetts Tornado Summary, the NWS June 1st, 2011 Facebook Graphic, the ARRL Story on the June 1st Tornado Outbreak, the NWS Taunton June 1st Local Storm Report and the Raw Storm log from the WX1BOX Amateur Radio Station.

Amateur Radio SKYWARN Video – June 1st, 2011:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dBRGRQx9bI

Dan Butler SKYWARN Spotter – June 1st, 2011 – Springfield Massachusetts Tornado – Warning: Please note light profanity in this video as there are livewitness videos as part of the timeline:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yvp7NGsxruE

NWS Boston/Norton June 1st, 2011 Facebook Graphics:
https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=326947176276952&set=a.237876368517367
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/June-1st-2011-Massachusetts-Tornado-Outbreak_2022_infographic.jpg

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Reports 6/1/11:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/lsr_6_1_11.txt

NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement – Tornado Classifications from 6/1/11:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/PNS_Jun_1_2011_BOX_TOR.pdf

ARRL Story from 6/1/11 – Central Massachusetts Experiences Rare Tornado, Area Hams Hasten to Help:
http://www.arrl.org/news/central-massachusetts-experiences-rare-tornado-area-hams-hasten-to-help

NWS Boston/Norton-WX1BOX Raw Amateur Radio Storm Log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/storm_reports.txt

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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