Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday 8/9/22 Heat & Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Last day of heat and humidity today for the region. Showers and thunderstorms remained below severe limits on Monday while thunderstorms Friday brought isolated severe weather to portions of interior Massachusetts and neighboring Southern New Hampshire during Friday Afternoon into early evening and isolated severe weather also occurred Sunday Afternoon and Evening in isolated to scattered locations. Saturday all storms stayed non-severe..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy downpours leading to possible urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The threat area is much of Southern New England with the best chance along or south of the Mass Pike over isolated locations.. Severe weather is expected to be similar or perhaps slightly higher than the coverage seen on Friday and Sunday though if instability, timing of front and stronger though still marginal shear do not coincide accordingly, thunderstorms could remain non-severe but the setup favors at least some isolated coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms..
..Owing to the slightly better chance at more coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..A Heat Advisory is in effect through 800 PM Tuesday for all of the coverage area except Nantucket for heat indices in the 98-102 degree range. If outdoors and physically exerting yourself, slow down, take frequent breaks and drink plenty of non-caffeinated liquids..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for this Tuesday afternoon and evening anytime from 1200-1000 PM today. This will be the only coordination message as we shift to operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Heat Advisory Statement, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and Links to the NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Reports and WX1BOX Amateur Radio Logs from Friday and Sunday’s severe weather event. Pictures of storm damage can be sent as a reply to this email, via our Facebook and Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Friday 8/5/22 and Sunday 8/7/22:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/LSR_8_5_22.pdf
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/LSR_8_7_22.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Amateur Radio Log – Friday 8/5/22 and Sunday 8/7/22:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/reports_8_5_22.pdf
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/reports_8_7_22.pdf

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org

Severe Weather Coordination Message – Monday Afternoon & Evening – 8/8/22 Severe Weather & Heat Potential

Hello to all…

..Extended period of heat and humidity continues through Tuesday for the region. Thunderstorms Friday brought Isolated severe weather to portions of interior Massachusetts and neighboring Southern New Hampshire during Friday Afternoon into early evening and isolated severe weather also occurred Sunday Afternoon and Evening in isolated to scattered locations. Saturday all storms stayed non-severe..
..Isolated to Scattered Thunderstorms with heavy downpours as the main threat with isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy downpours leading to possible urban and poor drainage flooding are a secondary threat again Monday. The threat area is in interior Southern New England but over isolated locations. Most locations will end up largely dry today but a few isolated cities and towns in interior Southern New England could see an isolated to scattered non-severe thunderstorm with an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm possible similar ranging from what we have seen on Friday and Sunday or it could fail to produce any isolated severe thunderstorm activity like on Saturday..
..There is perhaps a slightly more elevated potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday as a cold front slowly moves toward Southern New England providing a bit more of a trigger and somewhat higher shear for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development and this will be detailed in a coordination message later Monday Night or Tuesday Morning..
..A Heat Advisory is in effect through 800 PM Tuesday for all of the coverage area except Nantucket for heat indices in the 98-102 degree range. If outdoors and physically exerting yourself, slow down, take frequent breaks and drink plenty of non-caffeinated liquids..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the isolated severe weather potential for this Monday afternoon and evening anytime from 200-800 PM today. This will be the only coordination message as we shift to operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Heat Advisory Statement and Links to the NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Reports and WX1BOX Amateur Radio Logs from Friday and Sunday’s severe weather event. Pictures of storm damage can be sent as a reply to this email, via our Facebook and Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Friday 8/5/22 and Sunday 8/7/22:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/LSR_8_5_22.pdf
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/LSR_8_7_22.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Amateur Radio Log – Friday 8/5/22 and Sunday 8/7/22:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/reports_8_5_22.pdf
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/reports_8_7_22.pdf

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday 8/6/22 Severe Weather & Heat Potential

Hello to all…

..Extended period of heat and humidity continues through early next week for the region. Thunderstorms yesterday brought Isolated severe weather to portions of interior Massachusetts and neighboring Southern New Hampshire during Friday Afternoon into early evening..
..Isolated to Scattered Thunderstorms with heavy downpours as the main threat with isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy downpours leading to possible urban and poor drainage flooding are a secondary threat again Saturday. The threat area is in interior Southern New England but over isolated locations. Most locations will end up largely dry today but a few isolated cities and towns in interior Southern New England could see an isolated to scattered non-severe thunderstorm with an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm possible similar to what was seen on Friday..
..A Heat Advisory is in effect through 800 PM Sunday for all of the coverage area except Nantucket for heat indices in the 98-100 degree range. If outdoors and physically exerting yourself, slow down, take frequent breaks and drink plenty of non-caffeinated liquids..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the isolated severe weather potential for this Saturday afternoon and evening anytime from 200-800 PM today. This will be the only coordination message as we shift to operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Heat Advisory Statement and Links to the NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report and WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/LSR_8_5_22.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Amateur Radio Log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/reports_8_5_22.pdf

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org

Severe Weather & Heat Coordination Message #1 – Friday Afternoon & Evening 8/5/22 – Severe Weather & Heat Potential

Hello to all…

..Extended period of heat and humidity through early next week for the region. Isolated to Scattered Thunderstorms with heavy downpours as the main threat with isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy downpours leading to possible urban and poor drainage flooding are a secondary threat. The threat area is in interior Southern New England but over isolated locations. Most locations will end up largely dry today but a few isolated cities and towns in interior Southern New England could see an isolated to scattered non-severe thunderstorm with an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm possible…
..A Heat Advisory is in effect through 800 PM for all of the coverage area except Nantucket for heat indices in the 98-100 degree range. If outdoors and physically exerting yourself, slow down, take frequent breaks and drink plenty of non-caffeinated liquids..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the isolated severe weather potential for this afternoon and evening anytime from 200-800 PM today. This will be the only coordination message as we shift to operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion and Heat Advisory Statement..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday Afternoon & Evening 8/2/22 – Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Most thunderstorms will be of the non-severe general thunderstorm variety but an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm is also possible across interior Southern New England particularly Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut for this Tuesday Afternoon and Evening between around 2-8 PM. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours would be the main threats..
..Weak shear and other instability parameters will keep any severe weather potential isolated but a few isolated locations could see a strong to severe thunderstorm enough to post a coordination message on the potential. The strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to be of the marginal, pulse-type variety..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for this Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the only coordination message as we move into monitoring mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org

Special Announcement: Donation Drive to the Blue Hill Observatory for the Mish Michaels Exhibit Hall for Scientific Discovery

Hello to all…

In March 2022, the meteorology, weather spotter and Amateur Radio communities mourned the loss of Mish Michaels as she gave so much to all of these respective communities given her passion for weather, weather education and public service. In March, we wrote a tribute to Mish Michaels for all she did for the SKYWARN and Amateur Radio community as did WBZ-TV and the Blue Hill Observatory where Mish and her family gave so much to Blue Hill for its support of weather education programs particularly for the young people of the community. Links to those tributes are listed below:

WX1BOX Amateur Radio team tribute to Mish Michaels including the WBZ-TV Channel 4 Tribute:
https://wx1box.org/2022/03/18/special-announcement-a-skywarn-and-amateur-radio-tribute-to-mish-michaels/

Blue Hill Observatory Remembers Mish Michaels:
https://bluehill.org/blue-hill-observatory-remembers-mish-michaels/

Our Amateur Radio team has rarely, if ever, sent out a note regarding a donation drive but given so much Mish has done for our community and some requests from the broadcast meteorological community, we wanted to put out this message in support of a donation drive to the Blue Hill Observatory for the Mish Michaels Exhibit Hall for Scientific discovery at BHO. The following is information provided to us by Chief Emeritus Meteorologist, Harvey Lenoard, WCVB-TV Channel 5 regarding the donation drive for Mish. Those that can afford larger contributions will receive an invite to an event Wednesday August 10th from 530-730 PM at Trillium Brewery where Tim Kelley and Harvey Leonard will be speaking and for a ribbon cutting for the ceremony for the exhibit hall if the donation drive numbers can be met. See info below:

This past March, with the untimely passing of Mish Michaels, our meteorological community lost a very special and talented contributor to our field. Mish was a great colleague and a close personal friend. I had the opportunity to work closely with her during my years at WHDH. Mish was an extremely giving person. Mish touched so many lives, and she should never be forgotten.

Enclosed please take a moment to learn more about a fundraising effort for “The Mish Michaels Exhibit Hall for Scientific Discovery” being designed and built at Blue Hill Observatory in Milton, MA.

Any contribution you would like to make will be most appreciated.

Mish was involved with the Observatory for many years as a board member and volunteer educator. She actively engaged and encouraged thousands of young minds to pursue careers in the sciences.

Contributors giving $200 or more will be invited to a festive, early evening event on August 10th at Trillium Brewing Co in Canton, MA. Tim Kelley and I will be speaking.

And all contributors will be invited to a special and private ceremony when “The Mish Michaels Exhibit Hall for Scientific Discovery” is completed in early 2023.

Blue Hill Observatory’s Youtube Page
https://youtu.be/hepGUZ-j1Sk

Donation Page
https://blue-hill-observatory-science-center.square.site/

We hope those that are able understanding the toughening economic times can give what they can for this drive and we appreciate any support the SKYWARN weather spotting and Amateur Radio community can give to this cause. Many thanks to all of you for any support provided.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Thursday Afternoon & Evening 7/28/22 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible to likely over an expanded portions of Southern New England Thursday Afternoon and Evening with the greatest potential in interior Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut and North-Central Rhode Island north and west of the Boston to Providence corridor though all areas should monitor with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has placed the region north and west of the Boston to Providence corridor in a slight risk for severe weather with areas from Boston to Providence south and east in a marginal risk for severe weather. The timeframe for the activity is between 3-11 PM Thursday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday Afternoon and Evening..

At 1040 AM, a warm front is moving through New England on Thursday bringing in more humid and somewhat warmer conditions to the region for later this morning through the remainder of the day and Satellite imagery is showing considerable clearing behind the warm front to allow for destabilization in the region. A cold front and trough is currently in Western New York and is causing several severe thunderstorms in this area. This activity will move east and with the clearing and destabilization ahead of the front, that should allow for a reasonable coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms across our coverage area. As always is the case in these scenarios, not every city or town will see a strong to severe thunderstorm but the coverage will be isolated to scattered and could become a bit more numerous if the following key factors are met:

1.) Heating and destabilization continues as current satellite imagery indicates creating a higher level of instability to allow for some mitigating instability factors to be overcome. Shear will be sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorm development.
2.) Forcing moves in close enough to peak heating in the region.
3.) Storms are able to organize sufficiently has discreet storms or a line or short segment lines of strong to severe thunderstorms.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday 7/28/22 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday Afternoon and Evening in Western, Central and Northern Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has placed this area in a marginal risk for severe weather for Thursday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday..

A warm front will move through New England on Thursday bringing in more humid and somewhat warmer conditions. As this occurs, a weak cold front will swing through the area. There will be sufficient shear in the atmosphere for isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development. The key factors will be lift along the front, ability for shear to coincide with sufficient instability presuming enough heating and destabilization for isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development. As we saw this past Monday, the right combination of factors have to come into place for severe thunderstorm development or activity will be quite isolated or muted so will be monitoring these conditions as we get into Thursday to see if that overlap of instability, shear and a source of lift come together for isolated severe thunderstorms in the marginal risk area.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday. Another coordination message will be posted by 1130 AM Thursday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2022/day2otlk_20220727_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Monday 7/25/22 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Intense heat and humidity expected into Monday with a cold front which will bring somewhat cooler and much less humid air that will be a trigger for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued all of Southern New England in a slight risk for severe weather. The threat timeframe remains around 12-10 PM Monday Afternoon and Evening and SPC has indicated an 80% chance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch..
..A Heat Advisory is in effect through 500 PM Monday Evening for portions of Eastern and Southeast Massachusetts and North-Central Rhode Island. Use caution if outdoors doing strenuous activities and drink plenty of non-alcoholic and non-caffeinated drinks during this period..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday late morning through evening..

We continue to be in a stretch of oppressive heat and humidity over the region with many locations in a 7-day heat wave. As of 1045 AM, Doppler Radar is showing a line of showers and a few thunderstorms from Southeast New York into Northwest Massachusetts into Northern New England. There are cloud breaks over much of interior Southern New England with low clouds from the ocean over southeast coastal New England. Further west, there is more clearing followed by the cold front which could be a trigger mechanism for a second round of strong to severe thunderstorms from late afternoon to mid-evening.

It is unclear whether the first round of activity, the second round of activity or both rounds will have severe weather potential. Models imply that the second round will be more robust with less severe potential in the first round of activity. Both rounds of potential showers and thunderstorms will bear watching for severe potential. The headlines depict the current thinking. The major key factor is as follows:

How the two rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity and severe weather potential evolves. There could be activity further east with the first round of showers and thunderstorms that strengthens in the interior with the instability and some heating taking place followed by a break with enough sunshine for destabilization that allows a second round of activity for later this afternoon and evening. The first round could be non-severe with clearing that allows the severe weather potential to be realized for the second round of activity or the activity between the two rounds doesn’t allow for destabilization such that the severe potential is more muted or isolated. At this time, the scattered severe thunderstorm activity is still expected and the second round of activity is slightly more favored to produce severe weather both rounds of activity will be monitored and both could produce at least some severe weather in scattered locations. Once again, we remind folks that not every single city or town will experience a strong to severe thunderstorm. The coverage could be anywhere from scattered to numerous to more isolated, depending on how the two rounds of activity evolve.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday late morning through evening. This will be the last coordination message as we move into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook…

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement – Severe Weather Potential:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2207251519.wwus81.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion – 80% chance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2022/md1588.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday Afternoon & Evening 7/25/22 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Intense heat and humidity expected into Monday with a cold front which will bring somewhat cooler and much less humid air that will be a trigger for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Southern New England in a slight risk for severe weather. The threat timeframe is between 12-10 PM Monday Afternoon and Evening..
..A Heat Advisory is in effect through 500 PM Monday Evening for portions of Eastern and Southeast Massachusetts and North-Central Rhode Island. Use caution if outdoors doing strenuous activities and drink plenty of non-alcoholic and non-caffeinated drinks during this period..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening..

We continue to be in a stretch of oppressive heat and humidity over the region with many locations in a 7-day heat wave. During Monday Afternoon and evening, a cold front will bring an end to the heat and especially humidity over the region during the past week. This cold front will be stronger than the one on Thursday with the potential for more widespread coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms in the region but as is usually case, not every city or town will see a strong to severe thunderstorm. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Evolution of overnight convection and how much cloud cover affects the region Monday to see how much heating and destabilization occurs. There will be at least some heating but if temperatures get warmer than forecast, it would be an added trigger to bring more severe weather potential to the region.
2.) The timing of the cold front which is expected to be maybe a bit early for western areas but in the time of peak heating for central and eastern areas. This will bear watching tomorrow and will affect areas that have the most severe weather potential with favorable wind shear, instability and forcing with the cold front.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening. The next coordination message will be posted by 1130 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook…

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2022/day2otlk_20220724_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org

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