Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday 5/17/25 Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all…
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening between 2-8 PM particularly across Western, Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut but could extend to portions of Central and Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut in a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather for Central and Eastern Massachusetts to Northeast Connecticut and Rhode Island. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours causing urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats with a secondary threat for an isolated tornado in Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut..
..There could also be a few showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday Morning between 9 AM-12 PM. This activity is expected to be sub-severe but the strongest storms could produce heavy downpours and perhaps some small sub-severe hail and sub-severe strong wind gusts..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor any severe thunderstorm potential for Saturday particularly in the Afternoon and Evening. Pictures and videos of storm damage can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook, X, Bluesky feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..
The potential exists for severe thunderstorms particularly in Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut but areas through Central and Eastern Massachusetts, Northeast Connecticut and Rhode Island away from the coast should also monitor. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:
1.) Sufficient heating and destabilization for strong to severe thunderstorm development. Satellite imagery shows breaks in the clouds and stratus that should become more prominent by early afternoon particularly in Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut. If the low clouds and stratus break up to allow sunshine further east, that would increase the risk for severe weather in eastern areas.
2.) Any morning shower and thunderstorm development this morning and how that affects clearing and destabilization for the afternoon activity. Any thunderstorm development this morning is not expected to be severe but heavy
3.) As always with severe thunderstorm events, not all locations will receive a severe thunderstorm. They will be isolated to scattered with pockets of wind damage, hail and urban/poor drainage flooding in those isolated to scattered locations.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor any severe thunderstorm potential for Saturday particularly in the Afternoon and Evening. Pictures and videos of storm damage can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook, X, Bluesky feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. This will likely be the only coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook.
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
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