Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across much of Southern New England this Wednesday Afternoon and Evening with the greatest threat in Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. Threat timeframe is roughly from around 1-8 PM this Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather. The greatest threat within the marginal risk is across Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut but the whole risk area particularly interior Southern New England should monitor the potential with hail being the greatest risk east of Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will occur as required based on any warnings issued or reports meeting the SKYWARN reporting criteria are received. Pictures of hail/wind damage etc. can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..

An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with the warm front moved through the area this morning. Satellite imagery indicates areas of clearing that will potentially allow for heating and destabilization moving into Connecticut and Western Massachusetts. This will allow for the development of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in this area. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Amount of heating and instability overlapping cooling aloft and sufficient wind shear profiles for strong to severe thunderstorm development.
2.) Main threat area is Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut where storms will have the best chance to become surface based but east of this area, as storms become elevated could have the risk for some hail particularly in interior locations.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will occur as required based on any warnings issued or reports meeting the SKYWARN reporting criteria are received. Pictures of hail/wind damage etc. can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. This will be the only coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
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