Hello to all…

..Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms and localized flooding of urban and poor drainage areas are possible over Cape Cod and the Islands potentially expanding elsewhere across Southeast New England from roughly Westerly to Providence to Newport and points east for overnight into early to mid Tuesday AM between 4-10 AM. Urban and poor drainage flooding is the primary threat but a secondary threat for localized wind damage or an isolated brief tornado and/or waterspout is a secondary threat..
..The key factors in this event is how far north rain and thunderstorms make it into the region. It could be centered over Cape Cod and the Islands, be further south across the islands or south of the islands or trend further north into the Westerly to Providence through Southeast Mass region. This will be monitored closely as the trend has been further north with this activity..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are possible early Tuesday AM for wind damage, flooding, rain gauge reports 1″ or more etc. depending on the track of this activity. This will be the only coordination message on this potential system for Southeast New England. Below are the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box
Subscribe on YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@wx1box-nwsboston-amateur-radio

Hello to all…

Please propagate widely to folks and we have posted this message at the top of our wx1box.org web site.

We have received a number of questions and problems with regard to our SKYWARN Announcement email list within the last few weeks. Over the last year, we have had chronic email server issues with the SKYWARN Announcement list due to new spam prevention techniques launched by some of the larger email providers. At first, it was just Microsoft email addresses but it has now spread to Comcast and some gmail users as well.

Our email administrator, Phil McNamara, is looking to address the issue with a new email server that will have new hardware and software that should fix it completely within the next 1-2 weeks. We are sorry for the issues this causes you or others that are on the announcement email list that haven’t been receiving messages. All our coordination messages for severe weather are posted via https://www.wx1box.org and via our Facebook and Twitter feeds under WX1BOX on social media until we address the email issues being seen and this has been a standard protocol for years so please look to these sources if you don’t see emails regarding severe weather potential until this problem is addressed.

We appreciate your understanding during this time and we will send an updated message once the enhancements are completed. Thanks to all for your support of the NWS Boston/Norton SKYWARN program and your support of Amateur Radio!

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box
Subscribe on YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@wx1box-nwsboston-amateur-radio

Hello to all…

..Widespread severe weather event across Western, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts caused just over 30,000 customers to lose power in Massachusetts at the height of the severe weather with more isolated activity in Northern Connecticut occurred on Tuesday 7/16/24. Any post storm damage reports, pictures, videos from this event welcome..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely across much of Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut possibly extending to the rest of Southern New England this Wednesday Afternoon and Evening between 4-10 PM EDT. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats.
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has Western and Central Massachusetts, Connecticut into extreme Northwest Rhode Island in a slight risk for severe weather with with a marginal risk for severe weather for the rest of Southern New England..
..Intense heat and humidity with a heat wave continues Wednesday and will end today. A Heat Advisory is now in effect through 8 PM Wednesday Evening for Eastern Franklin, Worcester, Middlesex, Essex, Eastern Hampshire, Eastern Hampden, Norfolk, Bristol, Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island except for Block Island for heat indices up to 101 expected. Drink plenty of liquids and seek cooler air conditioned areas as needed during the heat wave..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will be done as needed for severe weather potential Wednesday Afternoon and Evening as needed. Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, flooding, etc. from the prior events on Monday and Tuesday and anything that occurs on Wednesday can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..

A heat wave started Monday in much of Southern New England and along with the heat wave, widespread severe weather event across Western, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts caused just over 30,000 customers to lose power in Massachusetts at the height of the severe weather with more isolated activity in Northern Connecticut occurred on Tuesday 7/16/24. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms impacted portions of Western Massachusetts and the area from Hingham to Cohasset Mass on Monday 7/15/24. Any post storm damage reports, pictures, videos from these events welcome. The WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log and NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Reports from Tuesday and Monday are listed below:

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log – Tuesday 7/16/24:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/reports_7_16_24.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Reports – Tuesday 7/16/24:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/LSR_7_16_24.pdf

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log – Monday 7/15/24:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/reports_7_15_24.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Reports – Monday 7/15/24:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/LSR_7_15_24.pdf

The heat wave continues through Wednesday along with a final round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential for Wednesday as a cold front will move through bringing an end to the heat wave starting Thursday. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors for Wednesday include:

1.) Timing of the cold front and thunderstorms to move in close enough to max heating to take advantage of high levels of instability.
2.) Ability for the complex of strong to severe thunderstorms to sustain itself if it arrives later in the evening.
3.) Whether certain limiting instability factors can be overcome by other more favorable instability parameters similar to Monday.
4.) Level of wind shear is a bit less than the minimal criteria for severe thunderstorm development but may be overcome by factors 1-3.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will be done as needed for severe weather potential Wednesday Afternoon and Evening as needed. Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, flooding, etc. from the prior events on Monday and Tuesday and anything that occurs on Wednesday can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. This will be the last severe weather coordination message as we shift into operations mode and a post severe weather coordination message or messages from prior significant severe weather events will be posted by the end of the weekend. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box
Subscribe on YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@wx1box-nwsboston-amateur-radio

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible across much of Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut possibly into Northwest Rhode Island Tuesday Afternoon and Evening between 2-10 PM EDT with the latter half of the time range the most likely time for severe weather potential. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats.
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has Western and Central Massachusetts, Connecticut into extreme Northwest Rhode Island in a marginal to slight risk for severe weather with the higher slight risk area further west into Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut for Tuesday. An enhanced risk for severe weather is just northeast of the Western Massachusetts border into Northeast New York and Southern Vermont for Tuesday as well.
..There is an additional chance for severe weather Wednesday Afternoon and Evening between 1-11 PM EDT as a cold front will bring an end to the heat wave. SPC has a slight risk for severe weather in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut with a marginal risk for severe weather across the west of Southern New England. This will be detailed in a coordination message by Wednesday Morning..
..Intense heat and humidity with a heat wave continues Tuesday through Wednesday as well. A Heat Advisory is now in effect through 8 PM Wednesday Evening for Eastern Franklin, Worcester, Middlesex, Essex, Eastern Hampshire, Eastern Hampden, Norfolk, Bristol, Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island except for Block Island for heat indices up to 101 expected. Drink plenty of liquids and seek cooler air conditioned areas as needed during the heat wave..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will be done as needed for severe weather potential Tuesday Afternoon and Evening and Wednesday Afternoon and Evening as needed. Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, flooding, etc. can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..

A heat wave started Monday in much of Southern New England and along with the heat wave, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms impacted portions of Western Massachusetts and the area from Hingham to Cohasset Mass. The WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log and NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Reports are listed below:

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/reports_7_15_24.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Reports:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/LSR_7_15_24.pdf

The heat wave continues through Wednesday along with the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential for Tuesday, particularly in Western and Central Southern New England and for much of Southern New England on Wednesday. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors for Tuesday include:

1.) A complex of strong to severe thunderstorms known as a Mesoscale Convective Vortex or MCV will be moving through Southern Ontario Canada into Western, Central and Eastern New York during the late morning through late afternoon. The timing of this complex of the strong to severe thunderstorms into our coverage area or if strong to severe thunderstorms form out ahead of the complex in western parts of our coverage area near or just past the time of peak heating will determine coverage of isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms in our area.
2.) Ability for the complex of strong to severe thunderstorms to sustain itself if it arrives later in the evening.
3.) Whether certain limiting instability factors can be overcome by other more favorable instability parameters similar to Monday.
4.) Level of wind shear is a bit less than the minimal criteria for severe thunderstorm development but may be overcome by factors 1-3.

The additional severe weather potential for Wednesday will be covered in future coordination messages most likely Wednesday Morning. The headlines give quick details on Wednesday’s potential as a cold front will end the heat wave over the region.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will be done as needed for severe weather potential Tuesday Afternoon and Evening and Wednesday Afternoon and Evening as needed. This will be the only coordination message on Tuesday’s severe weather potential and a message on Wednesday’s severe weather potential will be posted by 1130 AM Wednesday Morning. Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, flooding, etc. can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement & Facebook Infographics on Heat/Severe Weather:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/nmCK1tukqEu1Q6bE/

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box
Subscribe on YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@wx1box-nwsboston-amateur-radio

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible across much of interior Southern New England Monday Afternoon and Evening between 2-9 PM EDT. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather. There are additional chances for severe weather Tuesday and especially Wednesday of this week..
..Intense heat and humidity with a heat wave is also expected Monday through Wednesday as well. A Heat Advisory is now in effect through 8 PM Tuesday Evening for Eastern Franklin, Worcester, Middlesex, Essex, Eastern Hampshire, Eastern Hampden, Southern Bristol, Southern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts, Washington and Newport Counties of Rhode Island for heat indices between 98-101 degrees. A Heat Advisory is now in effect through 8 PM Wednesday Evening for Northern Connecticut, North-Central Rhode Island, Norfolk, North-Central Bristol and North-Central Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for heat indices of 103 expected..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will be done as needed for severe weather potential Monday Afternoon and Evening and Tuesday and Wednesday as needed. Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, flooding, etc. can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..

A heat wave has started today in much of Southern New England and with it will also come the threat of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms over the Monday through Wednesday timeframe. Heat safety precautions of drinking plenty of liquids and finding a cool place from the heat as needed should be employed over this 3-day period. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors for Monday include:

1.) Level of forcing and trigger in the atmosphere for strong to severe tstorm development.
2.) Whether certain limiting instability factors can be overcome by other more favorable instability parameters.
3.) Level of wind shear is a bit less than the minimal criteria for severe thunderstorm development but may be overcome by factors 1 and 2.

The additional severe weather potential for Tuesday and Wednesday will be covered in future coordination messages on that day.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will be done as needed for severe weather potential Monday Afternoon and Evening and Tuesday and Wednesday as needed. This will be the only coordination message on Monday’s severe weather potential and a message on Tuesday and Wednesday’s severe weather potential will be posted by 1130 AM Tuesday Morning. Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, flooding, etc. can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1, Day-2 and Day-3 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement & Facebook Infographics on Heat:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=802525465385785&set=pcb.802526062052392

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box
Subscribe on YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@wx1box-nwsboston-amateur-radio

Hello to all…

..A storm system will bring showers and embedded thunderstorms with heavy downpours which could lead to flooding particularly of urban and poor drainage areas..
..A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire NWS Norton Coverage area except for Cape Cod and the Islands for excessive rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage areas from late tonight through Saturday Evening. At this time the greatest risk in the Flood Watch area for flooding is along and south of the Mass. Pike and may also depend on heavy downpours training over the same area and in particular, urban and poor drainage areas..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio call-Up Nets are possible for flooding reports and rain gauge reports of 1″ or more over the course of the day Saturday. Pictures and videos of flooding can be seen as a reply to this email via the WX1BOX Facebook & Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. This will be the only coordination message unless a significant change to the situation occurs and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and Flood Watch Statement..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=FFA&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box
Subscribe on YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@wx1box-nwsboston-amateur-radio

Hello to all…

..A Heat Advisory is in effect through 8 PM Wednesday for heat indices of 98-99 degrees for Northern Connecticut, North-Central Rhode Island, Eastern Hampden, Southern Worcester Counties of Massachusetts and Eastern Massachusetts from North-Central Bristol and North-Central Plymouth Counties northward. Use caution in the heat today, drink plenty of liquids and find a cool spot as needed today..
..Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible for much of Southern New England except for Cape Cod and the Islands Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the region in a marginal risk of severe weather for Tuesday with the best chance of severe weather along and north of the Mass Pike. Timeframe is between 2-10 PM Tuesday..
..There will be additional potential for severe weather on Wednesday and this will be detailed in a future coordination message either later tonight or early Wednesday Morning depending on severe weather operations this evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are possible Tuesday. Another more complete coordination message will be posted by 1130 AM Tuesday Morning. Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, and flooding can be sent as a reply to this email, via the WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated.

Intense heat and humidity and a trigger in the atomsphere will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in portions of interior Southern New England. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) The greatest potential in the marginal risk area will be along and north of the Mass Pike.
2.) Ability for heating, destabilization of the atmosphere from intense heating and sufficiently strong wind shear profiles to overcome other unfavorable factors to allow for strong to severe thunderstorm development.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are possible Tuesday. Another more complete coordination message will be posted by 1130 AM Tuesday Morning. Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, and flooding can be sent as a reply to this email, via the WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. This will be the last coordination message on Tuesday’s severe weather potential unless a significant update to the situation occurs and time allows for an update as we shift into operations mode. There is potential for more severe weather on Wednesday and a coordination message on that potential will either be posted later this afternoon/evening and/or early Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Heat Advisory Statement and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box
Subscribe on YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@wx1box-nwsboston-amateur-radio

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible for much of Southern New England except for Cape Cod and the Islands Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the region in a marginal risk of severe weather for Tuesday. Timeframe is between 2-10 PM Tuesday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are possible Tuesday. Another more complete coordination message will be posted by 1130 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2024/day2otlk_20240708_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box
Subscribe on YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@wx1box-nwsboston-amateur-radio

Hello to all…

..We hope everyone had an enjoyable Independence Day holiday and are having a great holiday weekend..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible particularly across Western and North-Central Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut this afternoon and evening any time between 2-9 PM Saturday. Strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats with hail as a secondary threat..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the area of Western and North-Central Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are possible this Saturday Afternoon and Evening. Pictures and videos of storm damage can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..

A stalled frontal boundary coupled with warm and humid conditions and increasing wind shear will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms particularly in Western and North-Central Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Amount of sunshine for destabilization as morning activity departs the region.
2.) Whether wind shear increases significantly as some convection allowing models (CAMs) are indicating
3.) That there is enough forcing along the stalled out front in the area.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are possible this Saturday Afternoon and Evening. Pictures and videos of storm damage can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. This will be the only coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box
Subscribe on YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@wx1box-nwsboston-amateur-radio

Hello to all…

..Scattered to Numerous Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely across much of Southern New England Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats with an isolated tornado a secondary risk..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has most of Southern New England in an Enhanced risk for severe weather for Sunday with a slight risk for areas of Southern New England not in Enhanced risk. SPC has issued a Mesoscale Convective Discussion indicating an 80% chance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern New England. Threat timeframe is slightly expanded to between 12-10 PM Sunday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely as the potential strong to severe thunderstorms traverse the region Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Pictures and videos of storm damage can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..

We will be posting updated post severe weather coordination messages on the prior severe weather events over the course of this weekend. We appreciate and thank all Amateur Radio and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters for the reports, pictures and videos during those events and if there is more data available, please feel free to send it along to us.

Turning our attention to Sunday’s severe weather potential, the headlines depict the current thinking with the risk increasing of widespread pockets of straightline wind damage in addition to the other hazards mentioned in the headlines. SPC has indicated an 80% chance for severe thunderstorm watches as we go through the day today. The key factors to dictating the coverage and intensity include:

1.) Amount of heating and destabilization we receive ahead of a strong cold front. As of 945 AM Monday, satellite imagery shows clearing from west to east across the area with radar showing showers and thunderstorms in the South-Central New York/Northeast Pennsylvania area. Heating and destabilization should build across the region as expected and has likely built confidence in the severe weather potential resulting in the update to Enhanced risk for most of Southern New England.
2.) Shear profiles will be very strong and with the heating and destabilization looking to be as expected, this sets the stage for a more widespread severe weather event especially with widespread pockets of wind damage in the region.
3.) Cold frontal timing which remains in the ideal time range to maximize heating and destabilization.
4.) While the severe weather potential is expected to be more widespread, not every city or town will see damage and the cities and towns that see damage will likely be in pockets of the communities like most severe thunderstorm events that affect the region.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely as the potential strong to severe thunderstorms traverse the region Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Pictures and videos of storm damage can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. This will be the last coordination message unless a significant change to the situation occurs and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1487.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
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