Hurricane Irene Coordination Message #4

August 26, 2011 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Large Hurricane Irene Poised to Strike Southern New England. Track adjusted slightly eastward. Hurricane and Tropical Strom Watches issued. Preparations to protect life and property should now be rushed to completion by Saturday Evening..
..A Hurricane Watch is in effect from the Merrimack River Massachusetts through Watch Hill Rhode Island and includes all islands. Inland, the Hurricane Watch is in effect for Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, Eastern Plymouth, Southern Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes, and Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts as well as all of Rhode Island except for Western Kent and Northwest Providence Counties of Rhode Island..
..A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Northern Connecticut, the remainder of Massachusetts and Northwest Providence and Western Kent Counties of Rhode Island..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect for the entire NWS Taunton County Warning Area except for Cape Cod and the Islands from Saturday Evening through late Sunday Night..
..Multiple Models are in agreement on a potential impact to Southern New England in the late Saturday to early Monday timeframe. The extent on specifics of impact are too early to state at this time but Heavy Rain, Damaging Tropical Storm to Hurricane Force Winds, and Coastal Flooding and Beach Erosion along the South Coast of New England remain potential threats. The watch issuances mean increased confidence in this scenario with further details likely provided this evening.
..The threat from Irene is far different from the threat Hurricane Earl posed in 2010. This is explained in detail in this coordination message..
..The westward shift in the models was replaced by a slight eastward shift in some of the models. One should not pay attention to these shifts especially where much of the region will be on the damaging wind/severe weather side of this large hurricane and further modifications in track can occur. This is explained in detail in this coordination message. The official NHC track has been shifted slightly eastward..
..The National Hurricane Center (NHC) advises that Interests elsewhere in New England closely monitor the progress of Large Hurricane Irene..
..VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Nets have stood down and will reactivate with WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center Saturday Morning lasting through the weekend..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely some time late Saturday Night or early Sunday Morning lasting through Monday for impact of Large Hurricane Irene..
..ARES/RACES/MARS/EMCOMM Groups should closely monitor the progress of large Hurricane Irene and seek advise from local leadership on stand-by status for their area..

As of the 5 AM National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center Advisory package, Hurricane Watches have been expanded to include the entire Southern New England coast from the mouth of the Merrimack River through north of Sandy Hook New Jersey including all islands. The Hurricane Watch extends inland to include Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, Eastern Plymouth, Southern Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes, and Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts as well as all of Rhode Island except for Western Kent and Northwest Providence Counties of Rhode Island. In the Hurricane Watch area, the potential exists for damaging winds with the potential for sustained and/or wind gusts to hurricane force.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Northern Connecticut, the remainder of Massachusetts and Northwest Providence and Western Kent Counties of Rhode Island. In this area, sustained winds and gusts to tropical storm force causing wind damage are possible. A Flood Watch is now posted for Saturday Evening through late Sunday Night for all of the NWS Taunton County Warning Area except for Cape Cod and the islands.

It is difficult to get into more specific impacts but Heavy, floding Rains, Strong Winds to Tropical Storm and hurricane force, and Coastal Flooding to South Coastal New England are all potential threats. The watches depict the latest thinking in terms of the potential for tropical storm force and hurricane force winds at this time. Modifications to these watches to warnings will likely occur this evening or Saturday Morning. For New England hurricanes, Heaviest rain are along and to the west of the track with potential for pockets of damaging winds. On the east side of the track, rainfall will be less but a much greater threat for widespread damaging winds. In the latest NHC advisories, remaining interests in New England should monitor the progress of Large Hurricane Irene.

The VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net have been active over the past couple days for Irene’s impact the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas and have deactivated, along with WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center. See their respective net links and the link to WX4NHC for details:

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

WX4NHC – Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org

High Surf conditions will begin to affect the New England coast in a few days. Swells and Rip Currents can be very dangerous to both the experienced and inexperienced swimmer. A rip current risk statement was reissued Friday Morning by NWS Taunton. See links below:

NWS Taunton High Surf Advisory/Rip Current Risk Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Surf Zone Forecast Information:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on&issuedby=BOX&product=SRF

There have been a number of questions from Non-Governmental Organizations and Emergency Management regarding the track of Irene and the track with Earl. There are some significant differences here and they are as follows:

1.) The overall model guidance track of Irene is west of the overall model guidance with Earl.
Last year, Hurricane Earl’s midpoint guidance was about 50-100 miles offshore of Nantucket with some wobbles as far west as the mid to Outer Cape and between Nantucket and Marthas Vinyeard. With Hurricane Irene, the west most guidance is the New York City area and Western Long Island New York with the eastern most guidance just east of the Outer Cape and Nantucket. The midpoint of the guidance is somewhere over Southern New England for Hurricane Irene. Models have been persistent with this track and that’s why this is different from Earl. There can still be 100 nautical mile track error and that will impact specific conditions but Irene’s impact will be larger than Earl’s was last year. As we get closer, the details will be better known.

2.) Irene is expected to be a stronger system than Earl
With Earl in 2010, he weakened fairly quickly from a strong Category 3 to a Category 1/Tropical Storm. With Irene, she is expected to be a much stronger system as she comes through the region. This will also impact conditions over the region along with the closer track.

3.) The trough at the mid-levels of the atmosphere will amplify much more than the interaction between the trough axis and Earl in 2010. This is another factor in why Irene’s track will be closer to the coast than Earl’s was in 2010 resulting in more significant impact by Irene this year than Earl in 2010.

There have been some questions on the further westward track in the computer models seen previously. These wobbles and changes are expected for another few model cycles. After trending west late Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning, some models have started the trend eastward once again and the official NHC track guidance has been moved east. Irene is a large hurricane and there will be various significant impacts across the US East Coast from the Carolinas northward to New England. In the next 12 to 24 hours, further specifics and better run-to-run consistency on the track should take hold. Being on the eastern end of Irene means a greater risk for damaging winds, severe weather and coastal storm surge flooding in South Coastal Massachusetts. Only if Irene tracks farther inland would this reduce some of the threats of Irene below hurricane strength due to land interaction but with some of the eastward shift in some of the reliable model guidance, that still isn’t the most likely scenario and people should still prepare as if a hurricane could impact the region particularly with Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches now in effect for the region.

Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of Hurricane Irene. People should continue reviewing and acting on their preparedness measures for tropical storm/hurricane force conditions and have these plans completed by Saturday Evening. This information has been provided via the Hurricane Preparedness Week Public Information Statements of Safety Tips via the link below and via a hurricane preparedness guide with a link to that listed below as well:

http://beta.wx1box.org/local/hurrpre.txt
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/announcement/hurricanePreparedness.pdf

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely some time late Saturday Night or early Sunday Morning lasting through Monday for impact of Major Hurricane Irene. ARES/RACES/MARS/EMCOMM Groups should closely monitor the progress of Large Hurricane Irene and seek advice from local leadership on stand-by status for their area.

Once again, Hurricane Irene should be monitored closely by people in Southern New England and preparations to protect life and propery should now be rushed to completion by Saturday Evening. The latest NWS Taunton Hurricane Irene Local Statement, Flood Watch statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and advisory/track information on Large Hurricane Irene from the National Hurricane Center are listed below:

NWS Taunton Hurricane Irene Local Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Irene Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt34.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt44.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt24.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font14.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Track Map provided by the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/025514.shtml?5-daynl#contents

The next coordination message will likely be posted Friday Evening pending further computer model data on the track of Irene and significant updates to Irene’s status as a tropical system from an intensity perspective as well as the status on Watches and Warnings for the region.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org