Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday September 8th, 2012 Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all..
..Potential for a Severe Weather Outbreak across portions of Western and Central New England from Western Middlesex County Massachusetts west, most of Southern New Hampshire and most of Connecticut. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. Isolated supercells are possible if storms organize ahead of what is expected to be a squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms..
..SPC has placed portions of Western and Central New England in a Moderate Risk for Severe Weather with a Slight Risk for severe weather across Eastern New England. NWS Taunton is in agreement on a potential severe weather threat..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely mid-to-late Saturday Afternoon through early Sunday Morning..
The potential exists for a severe weather outbreak across portions of Southern New England. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area of Southern New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and much of Connecticut in a Moderate Risk for Severe Weather with a Slight Risk for Severe Weather across much of the remainder of Eastern New England. The severe weather threat surrounds a cold front in the Midwest United States which will enter the Northeast on Saturday and traverse off the coast by early Sunday Morning. Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could develop by mid to late afternoon across the area ahead of the cold front. These isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could allow for a supercell or two to form over the area. Following those storms, a long-lived Squall line of thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail as the main threats could traverse the region.
As always with forecasting severe weather outbreaks, there are some factors to be contended with that could mitigate the threat. Some of the factors here include:
1.) Sufficient clearing to allow for heating and destablization over the course of the day Saturday across the region or the ability of jet dynamics and strong wind shear that is expected to accompany to cold front to overcome any potential lack of heating.
2.) Cold frontal timing may be past peak heating of the day which could be a mitigating factor unless favorably strong wind shear profiles have the ability to compensate for frontal timing if past peak heating.
It is noted that a previous moderate risk for severe weather earlier this summer resulted in no severe weather over the area. The factors in this scenario are different and appear a bit more favorable. Also, in general, the last 3 of 4 moderate risk areas have verified over our area and in the case of the last moderate risk area, it was verified across the mid atlantic states.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely anytime in the Saturday mid-to-late afternoon timeframe through early Sunday Morning. Another coordination messages will be posted by Noon Saturday. Below is the SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Hello to all..
..Potential for a Severe Weather Outbreak across portions of Western and Central New England from Western Middlesex County Massachusetts west, most of Southern New Hampshire and most of Connecticut. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. Isolated supercells are possible if storms organize ahead of what is expected to be a squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms..
..SPC has placed portions of Western and Central New England in a Moderate Risk for Severe Weather with a Slight Risk for severe weather across Eastern New England. NWS Taunton is in agreement on a potential severe weather threat..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely mid-to-late Saturday Afternoon through early Sunday Morning..
The potential exists for a severe weather outbreak across portions of Southern New England. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area of Southern New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and much of Connecticut in a Moderate Risk for Severe Weather with a Slight Risk for Severe Weather across much of the remainder of Eastern New England. The severe weather threat surrounds a cold front in the Midwest United States which will enter the Northeast on Saturday and traverse off the coast by early Sunday Morning. Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could develop by mid to late afternoon across the area ahead of the cold front. These isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could allow for a supercell or two to form over the area. Following those storms, a long-lived Squall line of thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail as the main threats could traverse the region.
As always with forecasting severe weather outbreaks, there are some factors to be contended with that could mitigate the threat. Some of the factors here include:
1.) Sufficient clearing to allow for heating and destablization over the course of the day Saturday across the region or the ability of jet dynamics and strong wind shear that is expected to accompany to cold front to overcome any potential lack of heating.
2.) Cold frontal timing may be past peak heating of the day which could be a mitigating factor unless favorably strong wind shear profiles have the ability to compensate for frontal timing if past peak heating.
It is noted that a previous moderate risk for severe weather earlier this summer resulted in no severe weather over the area. The factors in this scenario are different and appear a bit more favorable. Also, in general, the last 3 of 4 moderate risk areas have verified over our area and in the case of the last moderate risk area, it was verified across the mid atlantic states.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely anytime in the Saturday mid-to-late afternoon timeframe through early Sunday Morning. Another coordination messages will be posted by Noon Saturday. Below is the SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org