Severe Weather and Heat Coordination Message #2 – Friday 7/19/13-Saturday 7/20/13 Severe Weather & Heat Potential

July 19, 2013 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Intense Heat and Humidity will last through Saturday. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect today for much of Southern New England as today will likely be the hottest day of the heat wave with temperatures approaching or exceeding 100 degrees for air temperatures without the heat index likely in some areas and heat indicies approaching 110 degrees. Heat Advisories and possibly Excessive Heat Warnings could be extended into Saturday as the heat wave continues through Saturday..
..For Friday, widespread severe weather is expected to remain north and west of Southern New England but Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible similar to Thursday in portions of interior Southern New England particularly northern and western areas. Damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..As we get into Saturday, intense heat and humidity will then be followed by a cold front with scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms on Saturday with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues a Slight Risk for Severe Weather has been issued for Saturday for much of the region and Southern New England has been in a severe weather outlook for Saturday from SPC going back to their Day-7 Outlook..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Friday. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening..

The intense heat and humidity will continue through Saturday across much of Southern New England as the heat wave continues. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect for much of Southern New England today as today will likely be the hottest day of the heat wave with temperatures approaching or exceeding 100 degrees for air temperatures without the heat index likely in some areas and heat indicies approaching 110 degrees. Heat Advisories and possibly Excessive Heat Warnings could be extended into Saturday as the heat wave continues through Saturday. Details on Heat Advisories/Excessive Heat Warnings can be seen via the following link:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

For Friday, an isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm threat cannot be ruled out but current expectations are for the more widespread severe weather threat to remain north and west of Southern New England. On Thursday Evening, much of Northern Vermont, North-Central New Hampshire and Southern Maine were affected by isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms and flash flooding and a couple strong to severe thunderstorms grazed parts of Southern New Hampshire and Western Massachusetts late Thursday Afternoon and Evening. For today, the situation looks similar with widespread severe weather remaining north of the area but an isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm could occur in interior locations particularly in northern and western parts of the area. Damaging winds, large hail, and urban/poor drainage flooding would be the main threats. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible today if thunderstorms develop near or in our region.

As we get into Saturday, the heat wave will end as a strong cold front is expected to make its way into Southern New England. Models have been insistent out as far as 7 days that scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms will organize in a line or several line configurations with the potential for damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. Specific details and timing have yet to be worked out and there are some slight questions on cloud debris from prior thunderstorm complexes and timing of the cold front that could potentially limit the coverage of severe weather but confidence is fairly high on at least some severe weather activity particularly in interior Southern New England. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening.

Unless the potential changes for more widespread severe weather Friday, the next coordination message on the Saturday Severe Weather Potential will be posted Friday Evening. Below are the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1, Day-2 Severe Weather Outlooks:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,