Storm Coordination Message #2 – Thursday 1/2/14-Friday 1/3/14 Potential Coastal Storm Event
Hello to all..
..Happy New Year to all SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators..
..Coastal Storm likely to impact Southern New England with the potential for Moderate to Heavy Snow, Strong Winds in coastal areas and several tide cycles of minor to moderate coastal flooding Thursday into Friday. Snowfall amounts, wind and coastal flood impacts to be better defined over the next 24 hours..
..Bitter cold air will move into the region as the storm moves into and passes the region later Thursday through the weekend..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Thursday into Friday..
A coastal storm will likely impact Southern New England Thursday into Friday. While there have been stronger storms to impact the region, this coastal storm will bring some potent impacts to Southern New England. A moderate to heavy snowfall is likely for much of Southern New England due to the fact that it will be quite cold allowing for higher snow to water ratios and current precipitation forecasts in the 0.40 to 0.90″ range with those potential higher snow to water ratios.
At this time, the heaviest snowfall is expected to be across Rhode Island and portions of Southeast and East Coastal Massachusetts though all areas will get a plowable snowfall. Nearly all of Southern New England will have the potential to see snowfall of 4″ or more. Across Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts as well as East Coastal Massachusetts, the potential exist for 6″ or more of snow and the potential is there for some snowfall totals greater than 8″ in this region. In addition, strong winds particularly at the coast with gusts to 50 MPH may allow for a period or two of near blizzard conditions. Unlike the Blizzard of February 2013, the lighter consistency of the snow along with winds not as strong as that blizzard means that any possible power outages or tree and wire damage will be in isolated pockets based on the current track and intensity of the storm though this will continue to bear watching. Winter Storm Watches will likely be required for at least a portion of the NWS Taunton coverage area as we get into the day on Wednesday. As always with coastal storms, the track of the storm will determine the impacts and that will be better defined in future model runs.
Due to the long duration of the storm, there will be several high tide cycles with the potential for minor to moderate coastal flooding. These tide cycles include the Thursday Midday and evening high tide cycles and the Friday midday high tide cycle. These impacts will be better defined in future outlooks based on storm track and intensity and the direction of the winds and length of the fetch over the area.
During and after the storm passes, bitterly cold air will affect the region later Thursday Night through Saturday and into Sunday. It will be the coldest air of the winter season to date. This could have an impact on schools or other buildings where heat has been turned down for school vacation weeks where vacations extend into the Thursday/Friday period or other reasons. It is advised to raise heat in these buildings where needed to avoid frozen/bursting pipes in various buildings. Also, portable space heaters should be properly maintained to avoid any overheating and fire issues.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Thursday into Friday. The next coordination message will be issued by Noon Wednesday. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement on the cold air moving into the region, Hazardous Weather Outlook detailing Coastal Storm impacts and the NWS Taunton Snowfall Probability Graphics (Snowfall total graphics won’t be available until Wednesday):
NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Snowfall Probability Graphics:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php#
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
Hello to all..
..Happy New Year to all SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators..
..Coastal Storm likely to impact Southern New England with the potential for Moderate to Heavy Snow, Strong Winds in coastal areas and several tide cycles of minor to moderate coastal flooding Thursday into Friday. Snowfall amounts, wind and coastal flood impacts to be better defined over the next 24 hours..
..Bitter cold air will move into the region as the storm moves into and passes the region later Thursday through the weekend..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Thursday into Friday..
A coastal storm will likely impact Southern New England Thursday into Friday. While there have been stronger storms to impact the region, this coastal storm will bring some potent impacts to Southern New England. A moderate to heavy snowfall is likely for much of Southern New England due to the fact that it will be quite cold allowing for higher snow to water ratios and current precipitation forecasts in the 0.40 to 0.90″ range with those potential higher snow to water ratios.
At this time, the heaviest snowfall is expected to be across Rhode Island and portions of Southeast and East Coastal Massachusetts though all areas will get a plowable snowfall. Nearly all of Southern New England will have the potential to see snowfall of 4″ or more. Across Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts as well as East Coastal Massachusetts, the potential exist for 6″ or more of snow and the potential is there for some snowfall totals greater than 8″ in this region. In addition, strong winds particularly at the coast with gusts to 50 MPH may allow for a period or two of near blizzard conditions. Unlike the Blizzard of February 2013, the lighter consistency of the snow along with winds not as strong as that blizzard means that any possible power outages or tree and wire damage will be in isolated pockets based on the current track and intensity of the storm though this will continue to bear watching. Winter Storm Watches will likely be required for at least a portion of the NWS Taunton coverage area as we get into the day on Wednesday. As always with coastal storms, the track of the storm will determine the impacts and that will be better defined in future model runs.
Due to the long duration of the storm, there will be several high tide cycles with the potential for minor to moderate coastal flooding. These tide cycles include the Thursday Midday and evening high tide cycles and the Friday midday high tide cycle. These impacts will be better defined in future outlooks based on storm track and intensity and the direction of the winds and length of the fetch over the area.
During and after the storm passes, bitterly cold air will affect the region later Thursday Night through Saturday and into Sunday. It will be the coldest air of the winter season to date. This could have an impact on schools or other buildings where heat has been turned down for school vacation weeks where vacations extend into the Thursday/Friday period or other reasons. It is advised to raise heat in these buildings where needed to avoid frozen/bursting pipes in various buildings. Also, portable space heaters should be properly maintained to avoid any overheating and fire issues.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Thursday into Friday. The next coordination message will be issued by Noon Wednesday. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement on the cold air moving into the region, Hazardous Weather Outlook detailing Coastal Storm impacts and the NWS Taunton Snowfall Probability Graphics (Snowfall total graphics won’t be available until Wednesday):
NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Snowfall Probability Graphics:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php#
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box