Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Sunday Evening 7/13/14-Wednesday 7/16/14 – Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all..
..Conditions continue to be monitored for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm Sunday Evening in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect through 11 PM for Berkshire, Hampden, and Hampshire Counties Massachusetts and Litchfield, Harford and Tolland Counties of Connecticut..
..Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain quite likely across much of Southern New England on Monday and Tuesday and potentially extending into Eastern New England for Wednesday. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded Connecticut, Rhode Island and Western and Central Massachusetts with 5% severe weather probabilities for the rest of Southern New England except for Cape Cod and the Islands for Monday. Strong to Damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats though an isolated weak tornado is also possible..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will continue to monitor any isolated strong to severe thunderstorm activity in western portions of the area for this Sunday Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Monday starting as early as Noon time or as late as 2-3 PM and lasting through late Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is also likely on Tuesday and possible on Wednesday..
Conditions continued to be monitored for this evening for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm threat Sunday Evening in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Mesoscale Convective Discussion (#1358) for this area. That discussion is listed below:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1358.html
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect through 11 PM for Berkshire, Hampden, and Hampshire Counties Massachusetts and Litchfield, Harford and Tolland Counties of Connecticut. We are closely monitoring based on Doppler Radar imagery as of 630 PM a cluster of severe thunderstorms approaching the Massachusetts and Connecticut border as well as other severe thunderstorm activity further west in Southeast New York. The watch statement info is listed below:
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch #415 Statement:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0415.html
NWS Taunton County Outline for Severe Thunderstorm Watch #415:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus61.KBOX.html
As we move into Monday, a slow moving cold front will be approaching Eastern New York and New England. There will be warm and humid conditions over the area that will create a level of instability and with sufficiently strong wind shear profiles. As the slow moving cold front approaches the region, that will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms over the area. The timing is a bit uncertain. Storms could develop as early as Noon-1 PM or hold off on development until after 2-3 PM. This will be monitored closely. Also, the level of cloud cover and any upstream convection affecting the area overnight will affect the coverage of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms over the area. At this time, even with an expected level of some cloud cover, isolate to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms is likely across portions of Southern New England. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded Connecticut, Rhode Island and Western and Central Massachusetts with 5% severe weather probabilities for the rest of Southern New England except for Cape Cod and the Islands for Monday. Strong to Damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats though an isolated weak tornado is also possible. Regarding heavy rainfall, the potential exists for a Flash Flood Watch to be required either for Monday’s potential thunderstorms and/or for Tuesday’s potential thunderstorms.
Tuesday will be a repeat of Monday with the severe weather threat potentially evolving into a flash flood threat as we get into Tuesday Evening into Wednesday Morning. Further details on the threat for Tuesday will be defined in future severe weather coordination messages. There may also be a threat for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms into Wednesday across parts of Eastern New England depending on the timing and speed of the slow moving cold front as well. This will also be discussed in future coordination messages.
SKYSKYWARN Self-Activation will continue to monitor any isolated strong to severe thunderstorm activity in western portions of the area for this Sunday Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Monday starting as early as Noon time or as late as 2-3 PM and lasting through late Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is also likely on Tuesday and possible on Wednesday. The next coordination message will be issued by 1000 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Facebook Graphic in PDF format and SPC’s Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Facebook Graphic:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/2014.07.13_PM_Fcst.pdf
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
Hello to all..
..Conditions continue to be monitored for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm Sunday Evening in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect through 11 PM for Berkshire, Hampden, and Hampshire Counties Massachusetts and Litchfield, Harford and Tolland Counties of Connecticut..
..Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain quite likely across much of Southern New England on Monday and Tuesday and potentially extending into Eastern New England for Wednesday. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded Connecticut, Rhode Island and Western and Central Massachusetts with 5% severe weather probabilities for the rest of Southern New England except for Cape Cod and the Islands for Monday. Strong to Damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats though an isolated weak tornado is also possible..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will continue to monitor any isolated strong to severe thunderstorm activity in western portions of the area for this Sunday Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Monday starting as early as Noon time or as late as 2-3 PM and lasting through late Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is also likely on Tuesday and possible on Wednesday..
Conditions continued to be monitored for this evening for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm threat Sunday Evening in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Mesoscale Convective Discussion (#1358) for this area. That discussion is listed below:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1358.html
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect through 11 PM for Berkshire, Hampden, and Hampshire Counties Massachusetts and Litchfield, Harford and Tolland Counties of Connecticut. We are closely monitoring based on Doppler Radar imagery as of 630 PM a cluster of severe thunderstorms approaching the Massachusetts and Connecticut border as well as other severe thunderstorm activity further west in Southeast New York. The watch statement info is listed below:
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch #415 Statement:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0415.html
NWS Taunton County Outline for Severe Thunderstorm Watch #415:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus61.KBOX.html
As we move into Monday, a slow moving cold front will be approaching Eastern New York and New England. There will be warm and humid conditions over the area that will create a level of instability and with sufficiently strong wind shear profiles. As the slow moving cold front approaches the region, that will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms over the area. The timing is a bit uncertain. Storms could develop as early as Noon-1 PM or hold off on development until after 2-3 PM. This will be monitored closely. Also, the level of cloud cover and any upstream convection affecting the area overnight will affect the coverage of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms over the area. At this time, even with an expected level of some cloud cover, isolate to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms is likely across portions of Southern New England. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded Connecticut, Rhode Island and Western and Central Massachusetts with 5% severe weather probabilities for the rest of Southern New England except for Cape Cod and the Islands for Monday. Strong to Damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats though an isolated weak tornado is also possible. Regarding heavy rainfall, the potential exists for a Flash Flood Watch to be required either for Monday’s potential thunderstorms and/or for Tuesday’s potential thunderstorms.
Tuesday will be a repeat of Monday with the severe weather threat potentially evolving into a flash flood threat as we get into Tuesday Evening into Wednesday Morning. Further details on the threat for Tuesday will be defined in future severe weather coordination messages. There may also be a threat for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms into Wednesday across parts of Eastern New England depending on the timing and speed of the slow moving cold front as well. This will also be discussed in future coordination messages.
SKYSKYWARN Self-Activation will continue to monitor any isolated strong to severe thunderstorm activity in western portions of the area for this Sunday Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Monday starting as early as Noon time or as late as 2-3 PM and lasting through late Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is also likely on Tuesday and possible on Wednesday. The next coordination message will be issued by 1000 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Facebook Graphic in PDF format and SPC’s Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Facebook Graphic:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/2014.07.13_PM_Fcst.pdf
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box