Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday 8/12/16-Sunday 8/14/16 – Severe Weather/Flash Flood Potential

August 12, 2016 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Friday and the weekend will be a very hot and humid stretch of weather for Southern New England. The heat and humidity and a frontal boundary sagging slowly through Southern New England will set the stage for several rounds of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning as the primary threat and strong to damaging winds as a secondary threat through the period..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for Friday and again on Sunday with areas north and west of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather Saturday..
..A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11 AM to 7 PM Friday for Eastern Franklin, Northern Worcester County Massachusetts, Eastern Massachusetts away from the South Coast, North-Central Rhode Island and Northern Connecticut for heat indices up to 103 degrees and temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Heat Advisories could be needed for portions of the area again this weekend..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely by 130 PM today and could be activated as early as 1230-100 PM. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely again Saturday and Sunday..

From Friday through this weekend, the weather will feature intense heat and humidity over much of the region with the warmest days likely on Friday and Sunday. A break in the heat and humidity will occur as we get into early next week. Heat Advisories are in effect for portions of Southern New England today and will likely be needed again this weekend.

Several rounds of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected between Friday Afternoon through this weekend. This will be caused by a frontal boundary approaching and moving slowly through Southern New England. Wind shear values will be marginal but instability will be strong and set the stage for several rounds of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and extending through this evening with heavy rainfall and the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning as the primary threat and strong to damaging winds as a secondary threat through the period. Exact areas that see isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be difficult to pinpoint and will vary day to day over the region. SPC has a marginal risk for severe weather for both Friday and Sunday but areas in Western New England may see isolated strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely by 130 PM today and could be activated as early as 1230-100 PM. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely again Saturday and Sunday. The next coordination message will be posted either late Friday Evening by 1130 PM or by 1000 AM Saturday Morning depending on how long Ops at NWS Taunton and Friday’s activation will be. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 and Day-3 Outlooks and the NWS Taunton Heat Advisory Statement:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

NWS Taunton Heat Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html