Blizzard/Storm Coordination Message #4 – Thursday 2/9/17 Major Winter Storm/Blizzard Potential
Hello to all…
..Coastal storm on track to rapidly organize bringing a significant snowfall for Southern New England with strong to damaging winds along the coast and in Eastern New England and a period of blizzard conditions for Eastern Plymouth County and Cape Cod and the Islands and near blizzard conditions in portions of Eastern New England later Thursday Morning through Thursday Evening. Snowfall amounts raised region wide with wind gusts at the coast and in Eastern New England raised as well..
..A Blizzard Warning remains in effect from 9 AM to 8 PM Thursday for Cape Cod and the Islands including Block Island Rhode Island and Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts for 12-18″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible. In the Blizzard Warning area, sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with wind gusts of 55-65 MPH with isolated higher gusts likely. Snowfall rates of 2-4″ per hour are likely with thundersnow possible to likely in some areas. With the heavy snowfall and strong to damaging winds, this will have the potential to create blizzard conditions and isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect through 8 PM Thursday Evening for Northern Connecticut, Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for 12-18″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and wind gusts in the 20-35 MPH range with some blowing and drifting snow likely. Snowfall rates of 2-4″ per hour are likely with thundersnow possible to likely in some areas..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect 8 PM Thursday Night for all of Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts not covered by the blizzard warning for 12-18″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible and sustained winds of 15-30 MPH with stronger sustained winds at the coast and wind gusts in the 40-50 MPH range with the higher gusts at the coast. The winds and snowfall may cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages along with considerable blowing and drifting snow and near blizzard conditions likely. Snowfall rates of 2-4″ per hour are likely with thundersnow possible to likely in some areas..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from 8 AM-1 PM Thursday for East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands for minor coastal flooding of shore roads at the time of high tide and potentially extending a couple hours after high tide. Minor splashover could occur at the Thursday Evening high tide cycle…
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton started at 515 AM and will likely last through 11 PM Thursday Evening. Pictures and videos of damage, snowfall etc. can be sent via the WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds, via email at pics@nsradio.org or as a reply to this message. These pictures and video will be shared with emergency management, Non-Governmental Organizations and media with credit given to the spotter or Amateur Radio for the picture/video unless otherwise noted..
The coastal storm is on track for the region. Snow has started across Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut and is reaching Western Rhode Island as of 655 AM. A stronger system is being forecasted which is resulting in stronger winds and higher snowfall amounts. The headlines depict the current thinking in terms of snowfall amounts and strong to damaging winds in Eastern New England and especially along the coast line including blizzard conditions for Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands and Block Island. Near blizzard conditions are likely in eastern parts of the Winter Storm Warning area especially near the coast and Southeast Massachusetts in South Coastal Rhode Island. Heavier bands of snow are likely but at this point a widespread heavier snowfall is expected across the NWS Taunton Coverage area. The threat of a more widespread minor coastal flood event has resulted in a coastal flood advisory for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands for the Thursday Morning high tide cycle. Key factors remain as follows:
1.) As stated previously, this will be a coastal storm and the track is near the 40 North/70 West Benchmark and more intense and this means stronger winds and a widespread heavier snowfall across the area. Once the snow starts, within an hour or two of starting, it will become heavy with a several hour period of 2-4 inch per hour snowfall and thundersnow possible to likely in some areas. The heaviest snow across the region will be from 9 AM-5 PM Thursday with the timing a little later around 11 AM through 7 or 8 PM on the Cape and Islands and possibly other parts of Southeast New England. It is also noted some areas along the south coast and Cape Cod may start off as rain and as precipitation gets heavier, temperatures will drop and precipitation will changeover to snow and rapidly become heavy.
2.) Track, intensity and how fast temperatures will drop will also determine where a wetter snow may occur which coupled with strong winds could result in isolated tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. At this time, the consistency of the snow is expected to start as a wet snow and then get drier as colder air continues to move into the region.
2.) There remains the potential for a bigger build up of seas or waves for a bit more of a widespread minor coastal flood event resulting in a Coastal Flood Advisory for East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands for the Thursday Morning high tide cycle. Shore road flooding is the biggest threat for coastal flooding Thursday Morning. More minor splashover and isolated coastal flooding is expected for the Thursday Evening high tide cycle as winds turn more offshore by that time.
4.) The track and intensity of the storm and the pressure gradient has meant a bump up in the strength of the winds over Coastal areas of Southern New England and extending into Southeast New England.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton started at 515 AM. Pictures and videos of damage, snowfall etc. can be sent via the WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds, via email at pics@nsradio.org or as a reply to this message. These pictures and video will be shared with emergency management, Non-Governmental Organizations and media with credit given to the spotter or Amateur Radio for the picture/video unless otherwise noted. This will be the last coordination message for this storm system. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:
NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
Hello to all…
..Coastal storm on track to rapidly organize bringing a significant snowfall for Southern New England with strong to damaging winds along the coast and in Eastern New England and a period of blizzard conditions for Eastern Plymouth County and Cape Cod and the Islands and near blizzard conditions in portions of Eastern New England later Thursday Morning through Thursday Evening. Snowfall amounts raised region wide with wind gusts at the coast and in Eastern New England raised as well..
..A Blizzard Warning remains in effect from 9 AM to 8 PM Thursday for Cape Cod and the Islands including Block Island Rhode Island and Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts for 12-18″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible. In the Blizzard Warning area, sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with wind gusts of 55-65 MPH with isolated higher gusts likely. Snowfall rates of 2-4″ per hour are likely with thundersnow possible to likely in some areas. With the heavy snowfall and strong to damaging winds, this will have the potential to create blizzard conditions and isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect through 8 PM Thursday Evening for Northern Connecticut, Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for 12-18″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and wind gusts in the 20-35 MPH range with some blowing and drifting snow likely. Snowfall rates of 2-4″ per hour are likely with thundersnow possible to likely in some areas..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect 8 PM Thursday Night for all of Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts not covered by the blizzard warning for 12-18″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible and sustained winds of 15-30 MPH with stronger sustained winds at the coast and wind gusts in the 40-50 MPH range with the higher gusts at the coast. The winds and snowfall may cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages along with considerable blowing and drifting snow and near blizzard conditions likely. Snowfall rates of 2-4″ per hour are likely with thundersnow possible to likely in some areas..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from 8 AM-1 PM Thursday for East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands for minor coastal flooding of shore roads at the time of high tide and potentially extending a couple hours after high tide. Minor splashover could occur at the Thursday Evening high tide cycle…
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton started at 515 AM and will likely last through 11 PM Thursday Evening. Pictures and videos of damage, snowfall etc. can be sent via the WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds, via email at pics@nsradio.org or as a reply to this message. These pictures and video will be shared with emergency management, Non-Governmental Organizations and media with credit given to the spotter or Amateur Radio for the picture/video unless otherwise noted..
The coastal storm is on track for the region. Snow has started across Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut and is reaching Western Rhode Island as of 655 AM. A stronger system is being forecasted which is resulting in stronger winds and higher snowfall amounts. The headlines depict the current thinking in terms of snowfall amounts and strong to damaging winds in Eastern New England and especially along the coast line including blizzard conditions for Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands and Block Island. Near blizzard conditions are likely in eastern parts of the Winter Storm Warning area especially near the coast and Southeast Massachusetts in South Coastal Rhode Island. Heavier bands of snow are likely but at this point a widespread heavier snowfall is expected across the NWS Taunton Coverage area. The threat of a more widespread minor coastal flood event has resulted in a coastal flood advisory for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands for the Thursday Morning high tide cycle. Key factors remain as follows:
1.) As stated previously, this will be a coastal storm and the track is near the 40 North/70 West Benchmark and more intense and this means stronger winds and a widespread heavier snowfall across the area. Once the snow starts, within an hour or two of starting, it will become heavy with a several hour period of 2-4 inch per hour snowfall and thundersnow possible to likely in some areas. The heaviest snow across the region will be from 9 AM-5 PM Thursday with the timing a little later around 11 AM through 7 or 8 PM on the Cape and Islands and possibly other parts of Southeast New England. It is also noted some areas along the south coast and Cape Cod may start off as rain and as precipitation gets heavier, temperatures will drop and precipitation will changeover to snow and rapidly become heavy.
2.) Track, intensity and how fast temperatures will drop will also determine where a wetter snow may occur which coupled with strong winds could result in isolated tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. At this time, the consistency of the snow is expected to start as a wet snow and then get drier as colder air continues to move into the region.
2.) There remains the potential for a bigger build up of seas or waves for a bit more of a widespread minor coastal flood event resulting in a Coastal Flood Advisory for East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands for the Thursday Morning high tide cycle. Shore road flooding is the biggest threat for coastal flooding Thursday Morning. More minor splashover and isolated coastal flooding is expected for the Thursday Evening high tide cycle as winds turn more offshore by that time.
4.) The track and intensity of the storm and the pressure gradient has meant a bump up in the strength of the winds over Coastal areas of Southern New England and extending into Southeast New England.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton started at 515 AM. Pictures and videos of damage, snowfall etc. can be sent via the WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds, via email at pics@nsradio.org or as a reply to this message. These pictures and video will be shared with emergency management, Non-Governmental Organizations and media with credit given to the spotter or Amateur Radio for the picture/video unless otherwise noted. This will be the last coordination message for this storm system. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:
NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box