Blizzard/Storm Coordination Message #3 – Late Wednesday Night 1/3/18 Through Late Thursday Night 1/4/18 Coastal Storm Potential

January 3, 2018 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

..Computer Models Shift West a bit more Meaning a Major Winter Storm and Blizzard particularly for portions of Eastern New England and accumulating snow across the rest of Southern New England with strong to damaging winds affecting much of Southern New England strongest at the coast. Question now is rain/snow line and whether it tracks a bit more into Southeast New England and how far west heavy snow extends. Preparations for this major winter storm and blizzard should be completed by late Wednesday Night..
..A Blizzard Warning is now in effect from 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM Friday for Eastern Essex, Plymouth, Southern Bristol, Southern Plymouth, Cape Cod, Marthas Vineyard and Block Island RI for 7-14″ of snow except for Cape Cod and Marthas Vineyard where 4-7″ of snow are expected, sustained winds of 25-40 MPH with gusts to 60-70 MPH likely with isolated higher gusts possible at the coast and the potential for scattered to numerous pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages from the damaging winds and potentially heavy wet snow..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM Friday for Northeast Connecticut, All of mainland Rhode Island and Worcester County through the remainder of Eastern Massachusetts except for Nantucket Island for a widespread 6-12″ snowfall with isolated amounts to 14″ and strong to damaging wind sustained at 15-25 MPH with gusts of 40-50 MPH with wind gusts as high as 55-60 MPH in areas of the Winter Storm Warning closest to the Blizzard Warning. Scattered to numerous pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages are possible in portions of this Winter Storm Waring area and portions of this warning area could be upgraded to a Blizzard Warning in future forecasts..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in from 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM Friday for Hartford and Tolland Counties of Connecticut and Eastern Franklin, Eastern Hampshire, and Eastern Hampden Counties of Massachusetts for 4-7″ of snow with isolated amounts to 10″ possible. Sustained winds of 10-20 MPH with wind gusts of 40-45 MPH with isolated wind gusts to 50 MPH may cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and power line damage and isolated power outages…
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM Friday for Western Franklin, Western Hampshire, and Western Hampden Counties of Massachusetts for 3-5″ of snow..
..A High Wind Warning is in effect for Nantucket Island from 7 AM Thursday Morning through 1 AM Friday Morning for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with wind gusts up to 70 MPH with the highest wind gusts along East and South Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. Isolated higher wind gusts greater than 70 MPH are also possible in this area. Nantucket Island is likely to receive mostly rain with the potential for 1-3″ of snow before precipitation ends as the storm moves out of the region..
..A Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands for the Thursday Afternoon high tide between 1230 and 2 PM for minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of this high tide cycle resulting in numerous shore road closures and flooded basements near the coast line..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely on Thursday. Start time will be determined in the next update. ARES/RACES Groups should closely monitor the progress of this major winter storm..

A coastal storm will take shape off the Southeast US Coast today and rapidly intensify and track offshore of the Southern New England coast but recent trends have brought the storm closer to or at the 40 North/70 West benchmark or perhaps even just inside the benchmark resulting in more significant impacts in terms of heavy snowfall, strong to damaging wind and coastal flood potential. The latest updated headlines update the significant major winter storm and now blizzard potential. Key factors for this major winter storm system/blizzard:

1.) Whether a further westward trend continues bringing the rain-snow line further north and west into additional portions of Southeast New England and spreads heavier snow into western parts of the NWS Taunton coverage area..
2.) Where the setup for the strong to damaging winds along with a heavier/wetter snow sets up in the region as this is the area where the more significant number of power outages could occur. This is currently expected where the Blizzard Warning is in effect and in the southeast areas of the Winter Storm Warning closest to the Blizzard Warning area but could adjust a bit more depending on the storm track and trends in the storm track.
3.) The potential for heavier snowfall amounts and extent of stronger winds across a larger portion of Southern New England depending on storm track trends and given the storm’s very large envelope.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely on Thursday. ARES/RACES Groups should closely monitor the progress of this major winter storm. Another coordination message will be posted by 1130 PM Wednesday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, High Wind Warning Statement, Coastal Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Snowfall Maps and Facebook Infographics:

NWS Taunton Blizzard Warning/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Warning Statement:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Taunton Snowfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Taunton Facebook Infographics:

https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.1584696341624731/1584692914958407/?type=3&theater

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
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