Storm Coordination Message #2 – Monday Evening 3/12/18-Tuesday Evening 3/13/18 Winter Storm Potential

March 11, 2018 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

..We are still working on a Post Storm Coordination Message that will now encompass both major coastal storms that affected the region over the past 7-10 days. We have started Facebook Photo Albums for each storm available on the WX1BOX Facebook Page. Any damage photos/videos can be posted as a reply to this email, via the WX1BOX Facebook or Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org..
..Another significant coastal storm with heavy snowfall across much of Southern New England with the potential for near blizzard to blizzard conditions for Eastern New England and strong to damaging winds. Coastal flooding will be at minor levels given lower astronomical tides during this significant coastal storm event. Confidence in at least a level of accumulating snow and strong winds is high with confidence level on a high impact event at least moderate at this time..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Monday Evening through Tuesday Evening for the entire NWS Taunton coverage area except for Nantucket Island. Nantucket Island could receive advisory level snowfall. Total snowfall in the Winter Storm Watch area of 6-12″ are expected region wide with at least bands of 12-18″ of snowfall likely in Central and Eastern New England. Strong wind gusts coupled with the potential for heavy wet snow particularly in eastern and southeastern parts of the coverage of the Winter Storm Watch could result in at least isolated to scattered pockets of tree and power line damage and isolated to scattered power outages. Wind gusts in the western interior will be in the 25-35 MPH range, 35-45 MPH range in Central areas and 45-65 MPH Gusts in Eastern areas with the highest gusts of 65 MPH across East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands and Eastern Essex County Massachusetts..
..A High Wind Watch is in effect for Eastern Essex, Eastern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts into Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 65 MPH. These winds along with snow accumulation will likely cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..Minor Coastal flooding is possible at the time of high tide Tuesday Morning in East Coastal Massachusetts. Astronomical tides are low and this will preclude a greater coastal flood threat understanding the damaged coastal infrastructure from the previous two major coastal storm systems..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely. Initial start time for NWS Taunton Ops is between 4-5 AM Tuesday Morning..

Another significant coastal storm with the potential for near blizzard to blizzard conditions is going to affect the region late Monday Night into Tuesday. There is continued confidence on a significant system with high confidence in significant accumulating snow and strong winds and at least moderate confidence in a high impact event. The headlines depict the current thinking which is an expansion of the Winter Storm Watch across all of Southern New England except for Nantucket and High Wind Watches along East Coastal Massachusetts including the Cape and Islands. Key factors for this storm include:

1.) The current thinking is that the snow consistency won’t be quite as heavy and wet as the prior storm system with the exception of areas along East and Southeast Coastal Massachusetts and possibly South Coastal Rhode Island closer to the rain-snow line. This area stands the greatest risk for tree and wire damage from heavy wet snow and damaging winds.
2.) Storm track could still change as we approach the event. Some of the European models have shifted a bit further offshore but when factoring in the ensemble of European models with the American models, a closer to the coast track near the benchmark remains the favored solution increasing the risk for high impact major winter storm potential blizzard scenario. This will be watched closely over the next several model cycles.
3.) The threat for near blizzard to blizzard conditions is likely to make travel near impossible on Tuesday by the morning commute and will likely impact the evening commute to a degree as the storm begins to depart the region at that time. Very high snowfall rates of 2-3″ per hour (possibly higher) and the potential for thundersnow could result in rapidly accumulating deep snowfall in the region. This will likely setup in bands particularly in Eastern New England or could be widespread enough to affect much of the Eastern New England area with widespread snowfall of 6″ or more over the region likely.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely. Initial start time for NWS Taunton Ops is between 4-5 AM Tuesday Morning. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch statement, High Wind Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Snowfall Maps and Facebook Winter Storm Briefing Post:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Taunton Snowfall Maps:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Taunton Facebook Winter Storm Briefing Post:

https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.1651865511574480/1651864794907885/?type=3&theater

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box